#SyntheticCoveredCalls #LongLEAPs I’m still at it, selling weekly calls against my Jan 2020 66.67 long calls. I have been underwater and ITM on them for a few weeks, but the pullback allowed me to escape. I mistakenly forgot to close some ITM calls expiring Friday, so Monday’s gap down was super fortunate and allowed me to finally get above water.
Monday: Sold $TQQQ May 17th 68.5 calls for 1.26 (and covered short stock assigned Friday)
Today: Sold TQQQ May 24th 67.5 calls for 1.23
#Earnings $STMP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -57.76% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 31, 2018 AC -9.74%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.43%
May 3, 2018 AC +3.91%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC +11.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -22.59%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +35.88% Biggest UP
May 3, 2017 AC -0.40%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -1.60%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +6.63%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.22%
May 9, 2016 AC -5.32%
Avg (+ or -) 14.12%
Bias -3.15%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 84.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.94 to 96.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 72.14 to 95.86
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (57.8%): 35.48 to 132.52
Based on UP max only (35.9%): 114.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $ROKU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 6 quarters, which accounts for its full history of earnings.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +25.23%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -22.29% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +21.31%
May 9, 2018 AC -1.71%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -17.71%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +54.93% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 23.86%
Bias 9.96%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 64.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 55.66 to 73.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 49.11 to 79.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (54.9%): 29.07 to 99.93
Based on DOWN max only (-22.3%): 50.12
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Sold to close $BUD May10/May17 87.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55. Bought for .44 on Monday. It will be worth more if stock price continues to go higher, but not trusting the market to help.
#VIXIndicator A Downside Warning is now in effect… look for continued drop, at least in the short term.
#SPX1dte An extra bearish trade since that seems to be the new black:
Sold $SPX May 17th (weeklys) 2960/2985 call spreads for 3.15.
#SPX1dte — nice to have some volatility again, allowing for wider condor.
Sold $SPX May 8th 2780/2800-2930/2950 condors for 1.05, IV: 20.7%, SPX 2873.
#Earnings $EA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -13.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -4.05%
July 26, 2018 AC -5.70%
May 8, 2018 AC +5.74%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.95%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC -4.28%
July 27, 2017 AC +0.55%
May 9, 2017 AC +12.65%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -0.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +1.64%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC +2.40%
May 10, 2016 AC +13.69% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 5.96%
Bias 1.32%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 92.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 84.80 to 100.20
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 86.99 to 98.01
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.7%): 79.84 to 105.16
Based on DOWN max only (-13.3%): 80.20
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 6th 2905/2885 put spreads for 1.85. Condors sold for .80 on low-volatility Friday.
Not a good morning to wake up to an ITM spread, but with such a large gap it seemed the move would be faded. Now it looks to have run out of steam, so not taking the chance of a collapse into the close.
#Earnings $BUD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Bought to Open BUD May10/May17 87.5 #DoubleCalendar for .42 & .44
Feb. 28, 2019 BO +4.60%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -9.37% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO -5.02%
May 9, 2018 BO -0.31%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.07%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
July 27, 2017 BO +6.16% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 BO +5.68%
March 2, 2017 BO -3.72%
Oct. 28, 2016 BO -3.80%
July 29, 2016 BO +2.79%
May 4, 2016 BO -1.53%
Avg (+ or -) 3.92%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 87.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.43 to 91.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 84.07 to 90.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 79.30 to 95.70
Based on UP max only (+6.2%): 92.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $HTZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 25, 2019 AC +4.04%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +19.15%
Aug. 6, 2018 AC +24.63% Biggest UP
May 7, 2018 AC -18.72%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC -5.55%
Nov. 10, 2017 BO -2.24%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC +23.03%
May 8, 2017 AC -14.15%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO +13.59%
Nov. 7, 2016 AC -22.49% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2016 AC -4.96%
May 9, 2016 AC +0.22%
Avg (+ or -) 12.73%
Bias 1.38%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 19.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 17.31 to 22.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 17.24 to 22.26
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (24.6%): 14.89 to 24.61
Based on DOWN max only (-22.6%): 15.31
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $REGN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO +4.73%
Avg (+ or -) 3.12%
Bias 1.10%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 335.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 315.64 to 354.36
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 325.52 to 346.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (7.0%): 312.51 to 359.49
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 323.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
#VIXIndicator, needless to say, the minor upside warning was canceled this morning with a $VIX high of 18.80 (we only needed 16.09). Any close at 16.09 or higher will mean a Downside Warning.
#SPX1dte SPX ended the day right on the line…. my 2945 short calls will likely settle with a debit of 19 to 50 dollars. Condors sold yesterday for .80.
#Earnings #Rolling #revengetrade
Sold $GOOGL May 17th 1220/1210 put spreads for 7.75. Replacing my fully ITM spread of the same strikes expiring today.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 6th 2885/2905/2970/2985 condors for .80. (IV: 6.77%, SPX 2944)
More yapping from Jerome Powell on Wednesday morning.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=6&month=5&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#SPX1dter – tempting fate, Sold $SPX May 10th 2970/2995 call spreads for 3.50.
Volatility this week was too minor to disrupt upside warning. Yesterday’s VIX high was 4% shy of canceling the bullish signal, so apparently we are still full steam higher.
#Earnings Good trades last week followed by a couple misses this week:
Sold to close $MNST 58 #DoubleCalendar for .08. Bought yesterday for .29.
Paid .04 to close $CLX 157.5 put side of #DoubleCalendar. Bought Tuesday for .74
#Jobs Another great month; lowest UE since 1969
+263,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 190K expected
Unemployment at 3.6%, down by 0.2, a 49-year low
U6 unemployment at 7.3%, unchanged
Wages up 0.2%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 62.8%, down by 0.2
March revised down from 196K to 189K
February revised up from 33K to 56K
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 3rd 2850/2870-2945/2965 condors for .80 (IV: 12.84%, SPX 2914)
#Earnings Bought to Open $MNST May03/May10 58 #DoubleCalendar for .29.
#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX May 8th 2890/2865 put spread for 5.80. Condor sold for 4.55 on Monday. Been getting whipsawed on these medium-term condors. Small losses but certainly annoying. The 1-day jobbers are easier.
Are we really that scared of interest rates?
#Earnings $MNST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Tried for a dbl cal last quarter but the big move shut me out. However, it is such a cheap play that I’ll try again.
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +8.66%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -3.16%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +2.65%
May 8, 2018 AC -7.47%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC -14.43% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +1.17%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -1.14%
May 4, 2017 AC +3.30%
March 1, 2017 AC +12.75%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.55%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC +2.47%
April 29, 2016 BO +12.81% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.13%
Bias 1.17%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 57.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.57 to 61.43
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 53.98 to 61.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (14.4%): 49.20 to 65.80
Based on UP max only (12.8%): 64.87
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $OLED reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +23.03%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -20.50% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 9, 2018 AC +13.54%
May 3, 2018 AC +12.43%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -15.81%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +9.52%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -1.30%
May 4, 2017 AC +23.87% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +20.08%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +2.98%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -8.01%
May 5, 2016 AC -0.76%
Avg (+ or -) 12.65%
Bias 4.92%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 161.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 143.24 to 179.7682
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 141.07 to 181.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (23.9%): 122.95 to 200.05
Based on DOWN max only (-20.5%): 128.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte 2890/2910-2965/2980 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10. If the market had another 30 minutes the put side might be in trouble. Pretty sharp drop into the close, after notching a new intraday all-time high earlier today.
#Earnings $W reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 22, 2019 BO +27.85% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 BO -12.81%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +7.54%
May 2, 2018 BO +13.65%
Feb. 22, 2018 BO -22.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -15.54%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO -6.26%
May 9, 2017 BO +20.73%
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -6.49%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -4.13%
Aug. 9, 2016 BO -19.58%
May 9, 2016 BO +10.16%
Avg (+ or -) 13.95%
Bias -0.63%, tiny negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 165.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 145.60 to 184.40
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 141.98 to 188.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (27.9%): 119.05 to 210.95
Based on DOWN max only (-22.7%): 127.53
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +8.42%
May 5, 2016 AC -21.68% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 7.42%
Bias 1.52%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 74.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 69.18 to 78.82
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 68.51 to 79.49
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (21.7%): 57.96 to 90.04
Based on UP max only (+14.0%): 84.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 1st 2890/2910-2965/2980 condors for 1.10. (IV: 9.61%, SPX: 2942)
#Earnings Bought to open $CLX May03/May10 157.5 put calendars and 160 call calendars .74 total. So this is a split-strike #DoubleCalendar, a bit lower max profit but a wider profit range.
#Earnings $CLX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Considering a #DoubleCalendar
Feb. 4, 2019 BO +5.68%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO -2.85%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.17% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 BO -0.70%
Feb. 2, 2018 BO -6.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +1.17%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO +2.09%
May 3, 2017 BO +0.85%
Feb. 3, 2017 BO +4.07%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -3.19%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +0.99%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.94%
Avg (+ or -) 3.03%
Bias 0.79%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 158.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 152.89 to 164.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 153.84 to 163.46
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (6.7%): 148.00 to 169.30
Based on UP max only (+6.2%): 168.44
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Apr 30th 2920/2900 put spreads for 1.95. Condors sold yesterday for .80.
#Earnings $TNDM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Pretty crazy stock. Topped out above 300 in 2009 and again in 2014, but was trading below 3.00 early last year.
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +25.19% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -1.62%
July 30, 2018 AC +10.95%
April 26, 2018 AC -2.37%
March 1, 2018 AC +14.75%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -6.25%
July 27, 2017 AC -10.16%
April 27, 2017 AC -9.52%
March 8, 2017 AC -11.62%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -58.87% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 AC -14.78%
April 28, 2016 AC +2.29%
Avg (+ or -) 14.03%
Bias -5.17%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 63.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 55.47 to 70.53
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 54.16 to 71.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (58.9%): 25.91 to 100.09
Based on UP max only (+25.2%): 78.87
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings BTC $SPOT May 3rd 127/129-145/147 #IronCondor for .25. Sold Friday for .95
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +6.09%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -2.24%
July 26, 2016 AC +6.49%
April 26, 2016 AC -6.25%
Avg (+ or -) 4.73%
Bias 1.44%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 202.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 192.37 to 211.63
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 192.44 to 211.56
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (6.8%): 188.20 to 215.80
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 188.61
Open to requests for other symbols.
Alphabet is going to open with its biggest earnings move DOWN since January 2012.
#SPX1dte We get an extra series this week, since the EOM (end-of-month) options expire on Tuesday.
Sold to Open $SPX Apr 30th 2900/2920-2970/2985 condors for .80. (IV: 8.73%, SPX: 2948)
#Earnings Sold to Open $GOOGL May 3rd 1210/1220-1340/1350 #IronCondor for 2.15.
#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +7.52% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -1.93%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +5.41%
July 28, 2016 AC -11.52%
April 28, 2016 AC -11.28%
Avg (+ or -) 7.28%
Bias -4.17%, negative bias on earnings.
The FIVE-day outlook is more bearish, with a downside max of -23%.
With stock at 51.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 46.50 to 55.50
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 47.29 to 54.71
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (18.2%): 41.73 to 60.27
Based on UP max only (7.5%): 54.84
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Since I closed today’s call spread on Friday, I moved it up 5-points and sold one again:
Sold $SPX Apr 29th 2955/2965 call spreads for .75.
#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 4, 2019 AC +0.91%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -1.79%
July 23, 2018 AC +3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +4.26% Biggest UP
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +0.27%
July 28, 2016 AC +3.32%
April 21, 2016 AC -5.41%
Avg (+ or -) 3.16%
Bias -0.43%, negative bias on earnings.
The FIVE-day outlook is more bearish, with a downside max of -8%.
With stock at 1,275.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1,227.78 TO 1,322.22
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 1,234.71 TO 1,315.29
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (5.4%): 1,206.02 TO 1,343.98
Based on UP max only (4.3%): 1,329.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Closed last batch for .95
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 29th 2875/2895-2950/2965 condors for 1.35. (IV: 6.89%, SPX 2929)
#Jobs report is Friday at 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=29&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Earnings Sold to Open $SPOT May 3rd 127/129-145/147 #IronCondor for .96 and .95.
Strikes outside stock’s previous max moves, and risk/reward is just shy of 1:1.
#Earnings Bought to close half of my position, $AMZN Apr 26th 1885/1915/1945 #IronButterfly for 13.22. Sold yesterday for 28.15. Getting a bit nervous about this uptrend… I want to give it more chance to come back to 1915, but locking in nice profit on this first batch now in case it keeps going.
#Earnings Sold to close half of my position, $SBUX Apr26/May03 77 #DoubleCalendar for .85. Bought yesterday for .30. Waiting on the other half as this may be close to a pin. Same with $AMZN.
#Earnings I usually don’t take trades on Monday morning earnings, but this stock has excellent premium and thus far, modest moves. However, its history is short so it could surprise us. That is reflected in the expected move, which is much higher than its historical average move.
Looking at a condor, with wings 2-points wide.
$SPOT reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -2.83%
Nov. 1, 2018 BO -5.69% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO +4.40% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.65%
Avg (+ or -) 4.64%
Bias -2.44%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 137.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 125.96 to 148.04
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 130.64 to 143.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (5.7%): 129.20 to 144.80
Based on UP max only (4.4%): 143.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
Was able to turn $NOC double calendar into a profitable trade by taking assignment and then legging out. Sold the long puts for 16.00 at the open, then closed stock for 280.50.
And on one account that I hadn’t noticed was still open last night on $MMM, did the same thing… sold long puts for 30.00 and covered stock for 191.00, netting 1.00 on the close and a tiny profit on the trade. Better than a loss! And for once, I played the swings right… usually a weakness for me.
#Earnings Sold to Close $FFIV Apr26/Mar03 165 #DoubleCalendar for 2.10. Bought yesterday for .81 and .82.
Had to pay .02 to close the $MMM 220 put calendar to avoid assignment. Dub Cal bought yesterday for .904
#Earnings Sold to Open $AMZN Apr 26th 1885/1915/1945 #IronButterfly for 28.15. Risking 1.85 to make hopefully a lot.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 26th 2875/2895-2950/2970 condors for 1.00. (IV: 9.36%, SPX: 2929)
#Earnings Bought to Open $SBUX Apr26/May03 77 #DoubleCalendar for .30. Partial fill so far. This is a cheap play, must stay within its average range, or at least drift through it tomorrow. I placed a double-sized because of the low cost.
It is the tightest Bid/Ask I have seen on a double calendar, so very liquid.
#Earnings
#EarlyAssignment last night on just one (1) $NOC Apr 26th 295 put, part of my #DoubleCalendar. Sold the long May 2nd put for 16.00, and waited through the dip to sell stock for 280.50, netting 1.50 for a profit of .43. The rest of my position will probably not fare so well, but I’ll probably hold again tonight and may be assigned more. (Dub cal bought Wednesday for 1.07.
$MMM has made its biggest earnings drop in at least 17 years, which is as far back as I have records. Nothing you can do about that…. it was the perfect candidate for this strategy, but even “perfect” is no guarantee. I will likely close put side today and not risk early assignment. (bought yesterday for .91)
$FFIV jumped around the center strike in the morning but I got no fill. Now looking for it to recover. (bought yesterday for .81)
Not seeing any great candidates for dub cals today. Maybe $SBUX. Looking at a low risk #IronButterfly on $AMZN.
#Earnings $SBUX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +3.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +9.70% Biggest UP
July 26, 2018 AC +1.36%
April 26, 2018 AC -1.71%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -4.22%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.11%
July 27, 2017 AC -9.24% Biggest DOWN
April 27, 2017 AC -2.02%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -4.00%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.89%
July 21, 2016 AC +0.52%
April 21, 2016 AC -4.88%
Avg (+ or -) 3.77%
Bias -0.57%, Slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 76.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 73.74 to 79.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 73.85 to 79.65
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.7%): 69.31 to 84.19
Based on DOWN max only (-9.2%): 69.66
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $GRUB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 7, 2019 BO -2.00%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -11.98%
July 25, 2018 BO +23.53%
May 1, 2018 BO -8.39%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO +27.36% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +11.17%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +9.05%
April 27, 2017 BO +22.55%
Feb. 8, 2017 BO -3.51%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO -12.69% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 BO +24.10%
May 3, 2016 BO -7.12%
Avg (+ or -) 13.62%
Bias 6.01%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 70.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 60.14 to 79.86
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 60.47 to 79.53
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.4%): 50.85 to 89.15
Based on DOWN max only (-12.7%): 61.12
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC +0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC +9.56%
Avg (+ or -) 4.64%
Bias 0.58%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 1,910.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1,836.26 to 1,983.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1,821.47 to 1,998.53
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1,657.69 to 2,162.31
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 1,760.83
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Apr 26th 2930/2955 call spread for 5.25. Condors sold Monday for 4.75. Puts will expire. We’ll just forget that ever happened.
#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +0.87%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +2.13%
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Avg (+ or -) 6.06%
Bias -0.25%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 260.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 238.89 to 281.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 244.25 to 275.75
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 217.93 to 302.07
Based on DOWN max only (-8.6%): 237.59
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +11.35%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
July 21, 2016 AC +5.83%
April 26, 2016 AC -6.43%
Avg (+ or -) 8.40%
Bias 0.45%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 710.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 660.25 to 759.75
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 650.35 to 769.65
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 536.48 to 883.52
Based on DOWN max only (-14.6%): 606.48
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
12 quarters straight with all UP moves. (go back 13 quarters for the first negative, -15.6%)
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74% Smallest UP
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%
April 20, 2016 AC +14.06% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 5.19%
Bias 5.19%, ONLY a positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 243.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 227.32 to 258.68
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 230.38 to 255.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 208.83 to 277.17
Based on Smallest UP only (+0.7%): 244.80
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $MMM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Bidding for $MMM Apr26/May03 220 #DoubleCalendar for .90. No fill yet.
Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.94%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -4.37%
July 24, 2018 BO +0.92%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.83% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +1.88%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +5.91% Biggest UP
July 25, 2017 BO -5.05%
April 25, 2017 BO +0.46%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.42%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -2.94%
July 26, 2016 BO -1.09%
April 26, 2016 BO -1.30%
Avg (+ or -) 2.84%
Bias -0.99%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 220.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 212.48 to 227.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 213.75 to 226.25
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 204.97 to 235.03
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 204.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Bought to Open $FFIV Apr26/May03 165 #DoubleCalendar for .80. Only partial fill so far.
Also going for one on $MMM
$INTC is tomorrow after the bell
$WYNN is still uncertain, currently predicted 4/30 after bell
#Earnings $DHI reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 25, 2019 BO -2.61%
Nov. 8, 2018 BO -8.96% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO +10.87% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO +1.20%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +1.07%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +1.27%
July 26, 2017 BO -1.91%
April 20, 2017 BO -2.50%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +6.61%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -5.44%
July 21, 2016 BO -0.34%
April 21, 2016 BO +1.14%
Avg (+ or -) 3.66%
Bias 0.03%, no bias on earnings.
With stock at 46.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 44.24 to 48.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 44.80 to 48.20
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 41.45 to 51.55
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 42.33
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +9.57% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC +0.32%
April 20, 2016 AC +5.53%
Avg (+ or -) 4.80%
Bias -0.23%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 165.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 155.35 to 174.65
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 157.08 to 172.92
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 149.21 to 180.79
Based on DOWN max only (-8.3%): 151.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC +7.19%
Avg (+ or -) 5.62%
Bias 0.78%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 182.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 170.98 to 193.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 171.77 to 192.34
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 147.49 to 216.51
Based on UP max only (10.8%): 201.67
Open to requests for other symbols.
#ContangoETFs The $NUGT positions I sold in first quarter are starting to close:
BTC $NUGT June 30 call for .15 on Apr 15. Sold for 1.35 on Feb 19th
BTC $NUGT Sept 35 call for .20 yesterday. Sold for 2.06 on Jan 31st.
Looks like $DUST may be coming in to play soon.
#Earnings Sold to close $EW Apr26/May03 180 #DoubleCalendar for 2.25. Bought yesterday for 1.03. Third quarter in a row this was the best symbol for this strategy. Unfortunately I only got a partial fill yesterday.
#SPX1dte Since I plumb forgot to sell this yesterday, selling it this morning:
Sold $SPX Apr 24th 2890/2910-2945/2960 condors for .95. Expires today. (IV: 8.02%, SPX 2932)
Sometimes because volatility is higher in the morning, and because morning gaps can be accounted for, this sometimes can be a better approach that selling at the previous day’s close.
#Earnings Sold to close $SNAP Apr26 12 #LongStraddle for .75. Bought for 1.95 yesterday. If I don’t get the gap I try to sell quickly while volatility is still high, limiting the loss.
#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Bought to Open $EW Apr26/May03 180 #DoubleCalendar for 1.03. This one has a good risk profile and has been a winner for me two quarters in a row.
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC +0.08%
Avg (+ or -) 6.20%
Bias -2.76%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 182.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 172.02 to 191.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 170.72 to 193.28
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 150.90 to 213.10
Based on UP max only (10.5%): 201.09
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 