#Earnings — $HLF reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Tue 10/30/2018 AC -2.61%
Wed 08/01/2018 AC +13.03%
Thu 05/03/2018 AC +4.47%
Thu 02/22/2018 AC +3.00%
Thu 11/02/2017 AC -2.92%
Tue 08/01/2017 AC -1.95%
Thu 05/04/2017 AC +11.57%
Thu 02/23/2017 AC -4.51%
Tue 11/01/2016 AC -6.19% Biggest DOWN
Wed 08/03/2016 AC +0.74%
Thu 05/05/2016 AC +9.08%
Thu 02/25/2016 AC +20.52% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 6.72%
Bias 3.69%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 99.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.81 to 61.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 53.64 to 61.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (20.5%): 45.70 to 69.30

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings — $WMT reports Tuesday morning (after Monday holiday). Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 15, 2018 BO -1.96%
Aug. 16, 2018 BO +9.33%
May 17, 2018 BO -1.90%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -10.17% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 16, 2017 BO +10.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 17, 2017 BO -1.58%
May 18, 2017 BO +3.22%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +2.99%
Nov. 17, 2016 BO -3.08%
Aug. 18, 2016 BO +1.87%
May 19, 2016 BO +9.58%
Feb. 18, 2016 BO -3.01%

Avg (+ or -) 4.97%
Bias 1.35%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 99.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 95.03 to 103.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 94.37 to 104.23
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 88.49 to 110.11

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings — $AMAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 15, 2018 AC +1.08%
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -7.71%
May 17, 2018 AC -8.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +3.89%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC -2.33%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC +2.73%
May 18, 2017 AC +0.38%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC -0.87%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +0.03%
Aug. 18, 2016 AC +7.08%
May 19, 2016 AC +13.81% Biggest UP
Feb. 18, 2016 AC +7.04%

Avg (+ or -) 4.60%
Bias 1.41%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 40.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 38.47 to 43.03
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 38.88 to 42.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 35.12 to 46.38

#Earnings — $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC +5.59%
May 12, 2016 AC +15.20%
Feb. 17, 2016 AC +8.60%

Avg (+ or -) 10.20%
Bias 4.62%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 153.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 142.59 to 163.41
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 137.39 to 168.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 107.41 to 198.59

#Earnings — $FOSL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 7, 2018 AC +5.75%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -11.63%
May 8, 2018 AC +9.06%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +87.72% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -17.22%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -25.08%
May 9, 2017 AC -20.44%
Feb. 14, 2017 AC -14.82%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +3.52%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +0.69%
May 10, 2016 AC -29.07% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 16, 2016 AC +28.55%

Avg (+ or -) 21.13%
Bias 1.42%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 16.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.28 to 19.12
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 12.78 to 19.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (87.7%): 1.99 to 30.41

#Earnings Sold to close partial $UAA Feb 15th 21 calls for 1.25.
Sold to close partial $SHOP dbl cals for 2.55

#Earnings — $ATVI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 8, 2018 AC -12.39% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -3.69%
May 3, 2018 AC +4.51%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +1.90%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -3.43%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -3.06%
May 4, 2017 AC +1.37%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +18.87% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.85%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.66%
May 5, 2016 AC +8.47%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -7.86%

Avg (+ or -) 5.84%
Bias 0.02%, no bias on earnings.

With stock at 41.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 37.23 to 45.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 38.79 to 43.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 33.43 to 48.97

#Earnings — $TAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 7, 2018 AC +15.25%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -11.22%
May 8, 2018 AC +22.79% Biggest UP
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +4.12%
Nov. 6, 2017 AC -23.22% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2017 AC +2.50%
May 9, 2017 AC +2.28%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC -10.96%
Nov. 8, 2016 AC -16.59%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC -8.49%
May 4, 2016 AC -1.72%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO +12.36%

Avg (+ or -) 10.96%
Bias -1.08%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 60.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.58 to 67.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 53.69 to 66.91
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.2%): 46.30 to 74.30

#Earnings All of the tentative symbols on the list for today are now being estimated for morning of 2/20: CRON, ICPT, SINA, and WB.

#Earnings — $TAP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day range was roughly the same)

Oct. 31, 2018 BO +9.94% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2018 BO +3.47%
May 2, 2018 BO -15.40% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 BO +6.26%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +0.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO +2.95%
May 4, 2017 BO +0.92%
Feb. 14, 2017 BO +3.41%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO +1.44%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.05%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.59%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO -0.65%

Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias 1.17%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 65.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 60.77 to 69.23
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.49 to 67.51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.4%): 54.99 to 75.01

#Earnings — $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day moves were similar, with a smaller range, meaning extreme 1-day moves are typically faded over the following days)

Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +6.84%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +9.72%
May 4, 2016 BO -3.67%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO +9.12%

Avg (+ or -) 6.92%
Bias 2.96%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 177.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.33 to 194.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 164.74 to 189.26
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 155.71 to 198.29

#Earnings $MAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 25, 2018 AC -2.81%
July 25, 2018 AC -4.17%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.35%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +7.89%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.91%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.79%
April 20, 2017 AC -13.56%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -17.64% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +6.00%
July 20, 2016 AC -0.30%
April 20, 2016 AC -5.78%
Feb. 1, 2016 AC +13.82% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 7.50%
Bias -2.66%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 12.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 11.04 to 13.56
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 11.38 to 13.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 10.13 to 14.47

Open for requests on other symbols.

#Earnings $EXPE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 25, 2018 AC +2.49%
July 26, 2018 AC +9.53%
April 26, 2018 AC +8.19%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -15.46%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -15.98% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC +3.40%
April 27, 2017 AC -1.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -0.48%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +4.12%
July 28, 2016 AC -2.19%
April 28, 2016 AC +8.20%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +9.56% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 6.79%
Bias 0.80%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 127.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 118.87 to 136.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 118.85 to 135.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.0%): 107.13 to 147.87

Open for requests on other symbols.

#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 30, 2018 AC +9.73%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC +12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%

Avg (+ or -) 9.73%
Bias -2.27%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 18.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.45 to 20.05
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 16.47 to 20.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 14.78 to 21.72

Open for requests on other symbols.

#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
July 21, 2016 AC +5.83%
April 26, 2016 AC -6.43%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC -2.92%

Avg (+ or -) 7.70%
Bias -0.74%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 521.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 484.07 to 557.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 480.89 to 561.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 393.67 to 648.33

Open for requests on other symbols.

#Earnings — This one is a good double calendar candidate because it is cheap to buy. Premium for this Friday is not much lower than premium for next Friday. That gives us a pretty good range of profit; a range almost as wide as the max moves.

$CMI reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 30, 2018 BO +2.29%
July 31, 2018 BO +4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +6.09%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.32%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.62%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.77%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO +7.62% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 3.65%
Bias 0.50%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 148.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 142.54 to 155.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 143.36 to 154.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.6%): 137.46 to 160.14

#Earnings $SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% Biggest UP (the only UP)
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 19.51%
Bias -5.92%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 6.82 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 5.75 to 7.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 5.49 to 8.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (47.6%): 3.58 to 10.06

Cost of a straddle is about 1.10. The AVG move has been 1.38. Nice low risk straddle candidate.

Open for requests on other symbols.

#Earnings $REGN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO +4.73%
Feb. 9, 2016 BO -6.28% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 3.36%
Bias 0.87%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 425.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 403.84 to 446.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 410.73 to 439.27
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 395.29 to 454.71

Open for requests on other symbols.

#Earnings $DATA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 6, 2018 AC +15.35% Biggest UP
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -6.64%
May 2, 2018 AC +6.58%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +8.97%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -9.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +9.02%
May 3, 2017 AC +6.12%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC +14.66%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -12.11%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC -5.67%
May 5, 2016 AC -11.31%
Feb. 4, 2016 AC -49.44% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 12.92%
Bias -2.81%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 119.66 to 144.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 114.94 to 149.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (49.4%): 66.74 to 197.26
Open for requests on other symbols.

#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Thu 10/25/2018 AC -4.90%
Mon 07/23/2018 AC +3.46%
Mon 04/23/2018 AC -3.94%
Thu 02/01/2018 AC -8.22%
Thu 10/26/2017 AC +4.20%
Mon 07/24/2017 AC -4.00%
Thu 04/27/2017 AC +5.12% Biggest UP
Thu 01/26/2017 AC -4.29%
Thu 10/27/2016 AC -1.45%
Thu 07/28/2016 AC +4.47%
Thu 04/21/2016 AC -7.00%
Mon 02/01/2016 AC -8.69% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 4.98%
Bias -2.10%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 1135.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1082.60 to 1187.40
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1078.50 to 1191.50
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.7%): 1036.37 to 1233.63
Open for requests on other symbols.

#Earnings BTC $AMZN Feb 1st 1600/1590 put spreads for .25. Not going to mess with this one if it decides to get cute. Condors sold yesterday for 2.00.