#VIXindicator After the shortest Downside Warning ever, today we should have an Upside Warning fire. These warnings are less powerful when we are already so close to recent highs, and in this case all-time highs. Although SPX is wavering, VIX is dropping and SVXY soaring. Dow and Nasdaq a bit stronger than SPX. RUT is down.
Author Archives: Jeff
NVDA call
SPX trades yesterday
#SPXcampaign One reverse-roll, one forward-roll, and one standard spread:
Stopped: bought to close SPX May 30th 2405/2430 call spreads for 4.10. Sold for 2.10 on May 17th.
#ReverseRoll: Sold SPX June 5th 2375/2350 put spreads for 2.85, 1.5x position size
Stopped: bought to close SPX June 15th 2430/2455 call spreads for 3.80.
#Rolling: sold SPX June 23rd 2445/2470 call spreads for 2.70, 1.5x position size
Sold to Open SPX June 23rd 2290/2265 put spreads for 1.35
AZO put
#Earnings Sold $AZO Sept 480 put for 3.70. Lowest strike.
AZO put
#Earnings Sold $AZO june 16th 560 put for 2.35. Selling around my threatened 610 puts, in case I need to roll.
The Downside Warning was canceled…
The Downside Warning was canceled on Monday
Econ Calendar for week of 5/22/17
Sorry I forgot to post this morning. Don’t forget to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep features on Bistro updated.
SPX trades today
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX June 23rd 2450/2475 call spreads for 1.70.
Closed SPX May 26th 2300/2275 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Apr 28th.
Got stuck having to #ReverseRoll a double-sized position into calls last Wednesday, and had to stop out of them today. So I sold an #IronButterfly, or an #IBroll. This allows me to cut my position size in half, and spreads the risk more moderately in both directions rather than heavily in one direction. I will look to close each side when they get cheap, and if I’m stuck with either side significantly ITM a week before expiry, I will do an #ITMroll.
Stopped: closed SPX May 31st 2390/2415 call spreads for 9.35. Sold for 4.80 last Wednesday.
#IBroll: Sold June 7th 2365/2390/2415 iron butterflys for 18.10.
AZO earnings
#Earnings The old reliable $AZO…
Sold to Open AZO June 16th 610/720 strangles for 4.75. Over last 12 reports, the 21-DAY MOVES of AZO: Biggest UP move: 7.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.3%, Average move: 2.4%. My strikes are 8.3% OTM.
No expirations, final trades…
#Earnings Closed $HD May 19th 157.5 puts for 1.05. Sold in the 155/157.5/160 broken-wing #IronButterfly for 2.82 on Monday.
#Rolling Closed $PANW May 19th 135 put for 18.60. Sold for 25.90 on Apr 19th (as a roll). Sold June 16th 110p for 3.30, and June 16th 130 put for 15.30. Brought my ITM put down 5 points.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 15th 2275/2250 put spreads for 1.35.
Sold to Open May 31st 2360/2335 put spreads for 2.70… offsets threatened 2390/2415 call spreads for the same expiry.
SPX roll
#SPXcampaign So far this Downside Warning is shaping up to be a big failure. I’m going to have to review the set up as the signal is not as reliable in the last couple years as it was prior to 2015. However, until we close below 11.00 (which could be today), we could still weakness next week. The rally today could be an OpEx thing.
But regardless, I was too aggressive on reverse rolls on Wednesday; placed too many below the Tuesday high of 2405, which should have been my line in the sand.
Bought to close $SPX May 26th 2380/2405 call spreads for 10.50. Sold for 8.00 on Wed as a #ReverseRoll
Sold to Open SPX June 12th 2315/2340/2410/2435 #CondorRoll for 7.55, 1.5x position size. One side of that will likely require further attention, but the idea is to get the current ATM spread out of play.
SVXY roll
#VXXGame Yesterday, bought to close $SVXY June 16th 130 call for 12.45. Sold for 6.40 on Dec 21st.
Today, #StrangleRoll, Sold Dec 95/210 strangle for 12.90
NVDA looks poised for another…
NVDA looks poised for another run at all-time highs
I’m glad I wasn’t filled at on my order for a neutral iron butterfly on ADSK. Too the moon!
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator…
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
SPX roll
#SPXcampaign Having to roll out call spreads already…. Reverse rolling not working as well as usual, but I admit this one I sold this morning was much too aggressive.
Stopped SPX May 19th 2370/2395 call spreads for 7.00. Sold this morning for 3.20.
#CondorRoll Sold June 2nd 2295/2320/2410/2435 condors for 4.90, 1.5x position size.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign I am selling this rally, even though its strength is unusual for the day after a warning. It is certainly true that the Downside Warning can represent an SPX bottom, so I’m being cautious and ready to manage call spreads if the rally continues.
#RiskReversal: Wish I’d waited to enter this one, but oh well. This was entered at the open and meant to take advantage of possible strong moves down today or tomorrow.
Bought SPX May 24th 2300/2275 put spreads for 2.20
Sold SPX May 24th 2385/2410 call spreads for 2.60
Stopped: SPX Jun 9th 2290/2265 put spreads for 2.80 (this hit my 3.00 stop)
#ReverseRoll Sold SPX May 19th 2370/2395 call spreads for 3.20. Expires Friday afternoon, unless I have to roll it.
Sold to Open $SPX June 15th 2430/2455 call spreads for 1.85, with SPX at 2366.
New VIX highs overnight
#VIXIndicator Vix hit 16.30 early this morning, besting the Apr 17th high by .02. Click “Home/REFRESH” to keep VIX Indicator and other features updated.
With a new downside Warning hitting yesterday, a return to the 2400 area is unlikely for several days or weeks. Selling short-term call spreads is best bet…. further expiration dates may risk getting caught in the bounce. Going long puts or put spreads is riskier as further downside movement may not be as rapid as yesterday. But it could be! Protect your long positions.
SPX – I’m a rolling m*th**f***er
#SPXcampaign Whew! What a day. Playing the SPX campaign means you’ll have rough days like this. My only disappointment today was the May 17th 2380/2355 spread I should have closed yesterday. That’s the only stopped spread that i have not yet rolled. Will add on some rolls in the coming days. All other trades pretty much as the [lan goes on such a sharp down day; despite the drawdown in the accounts today, positioning to gain it all back and then some in coming weeks.
I have been prepping a revised webinar on the strategy and have seen that when a Downside Warning or Upside Warning first hits, selling reverse rolls around and above recent extremes is a safer bet than rolling further out in the same direction. So today, I rolled most back into call spreads, since the odds are we will not be returning to 2400 area for at least a couple weeks.
Here are my trades since 2p ET, when things started to really crater:
BTC SPX May 17th 23870/2355 for 14.00. Sold for 2.35 on May 9th (not yet rolled).
Stopped SPX May 19th (Friday PM) 2350/2335 puts for 3.85. #ReverseRoll to May 31st 2390/2415 calls for 4.80 (extra premium will be applied to another roll).
BTC June 9th 2450/2475 calls for .20; sold for 1.50 on May 10th.
Stopped June 9th 2310/2285 puts for 3.35; #ReverseRoll to June 7th 2400/2425 calls for 4.10.
Stopped May 26th 2365/2340 puts (risk/reversal) for 7.85. #ReverseRoll to May26th 2380/2405 calls for 8.00.
STC May 26th 2410/2430 long call spreads (risk/reversal) for .80.
Stopped May 22nd 2375/2350 puts (risk/reversal) for 9.40. #ITMroll to May 30th 2370/2445 put spreads for 7.60, with May 30th 2405/2430 call spreads for 2.10 added to make up for debit.
STC May 22nd 2410/2435 long call spreads (risk/reversal) for .20. First half sold Monday for 3.30.
Stopped June 2nd 2310/2285 puts for 2.75. #CondorRoll to June 9th 2235/2255/2415/2435 for 3.10.
Downside Warning has fired
Downward we go
Lows of the day?
Wow just hit a new low with a spike down to 2367.69. It may have been a capitulation low, at least for a few minutes, or for the day. But in any case, the day has gotten uglier, not prettier.
I’m stuck exiting the May 17th 2380/2355 on this bounce, which sucks because it was going for .20 yesterday. I’m also pressured on the two risk/reversals I have running, which will likely need to be rolled. #SPXcampaign
Highest TICK of the day
Highest TICK of the day
PANW covered calls
#Earnings #CoveredCalls BTC $PANW May 26th 120 call for 1.00. Sold at Monday’s open for 3.30.
Goodbye PEP
#Earnings #StockTrades
Sold to close all PEP stock for 113.75. I don’t need this weighing me down if we’re going to have market volatility. Cost basis 113.20 from earnings #IronButterfly last month.
Hello NUGT
#ContangoETFs These are my first trades in NUGT since November. Waited for it to reach closer to its April highs before selling calls, and of course the reverse split was necessary to make premium attractive again.
STO NUGT June 16th 51 calls for 1.05
STO NUGT Sept 15th 51 call for 4.60
(highest strike available)
NVDA roll
Downside signal, Upside Warning is canceled
#VIXIndicator, #SPXcampaign
The VIX crossed 13.03, which is 25% above the 2-day closing low. This cancels the upside warning and sets us up for the possibility of a downside warning. We now need to be cautious of further weakness, but also the possibility that, without a full downside warning in effect, that we may bounce from this week’s lows. We’d have to reach 14.34 today for a Warning to go into effect.
I will be looking to manage some pressured put spreads today.
More SPX call spreads closed
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC orders:
$SPX May 19th (Friday PM) 2415/2440 call spreads for .20. Sold for 2.00 last Thursday.
$SPX June 2nd 2445/2470 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.72 (avg price) on or before May 4th. (this is mistakenly entered as the 2420/2445 spread on my chart).
I left the May 17th 2380/2355 put spread to expire today. Big mistake. However, I’m going to let the day play out provided we stay below 13.03 on the VIX, which is today’s warning signal level.
VXXgame dabble
#VXXgame
Sold SVXY june 16th 100 put for 1.20
Sold SVXY June 16th 140 put for 6.50 (hedge against underwater calls)
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign
Sold to Open $SPX June 15th 2265/2240 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2382.
These all closed on GTC orders since the opening bell:
SPX May 18th 2415/2440 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 as a #ReverseRoll on May 11th
SPX May 26th 2440/2465 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.60 on Apr 24th
SPX May 26th 2435/2460 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.65 on Apr 28th
SPX June 2nd 2450/2475 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on May 1st
SPX chart updated
Updated as of close yesterday. Be sure to click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep features updated. #SPXcampaign
Today:
Bought to close $SPX May 26th 2290/2265 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Apr 25th.
PEP stock
#Earnings #LongStock Sold to close a quarter of my stock in $PEP for 114.00 in pre-market. Assigned via #IronButterfly earnings trade at the end of April, cost basis 113.20. Scaling out as stock moves higher.
PANW trade
#Earnings Sold $PANW June 23rd 120 put for 2.50, giving me a straddle. Will adjust or roll one side or both sides as necessary.
Taking partial profit
Sold half of my long $SPX call spreads for 5/22. Leaving the other half plus the full position for 5/26 for potentially higher SPX this week.
Sold (half) SPX May 22nd 2410/2435 call spreads for 3.30. Bought for 4.75 on 5/5, but net cost was zero given I sold the put spread for 4.80.
New all-time SPX high
New all-time SPX high
Covered calls, naked calls
#Earnings #CoveredCalls
Sold to Open $PANW May 26th 120 call for 3.30. This was a GTC sell order, probably for 1.25 limit. I failed to see the morning gap before the open so it filled at 3.30.
Sold to Open $NVDA June 23rd 125 calls for 10.50. This is a roll from the May 12th 115 calls.
HD earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $HD 152.5/157.5/160 broken-wing #IronButterfly for 2.82. Downside max risk: 2.18. No upside risk. Max profit 2.80 if pin at 157.5. Minimal profit to upside: .32.
Over last 12 reports, HD five-day moves: Biggest UP move: 8.9%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.0%, Average move: 3.0%.
VIX up and S&P rallying……
VIX up and S&P rallying… repeat of earlier this year when SPX made some strong bullish runs.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 15th 2460/2485 call spreads for 1.50.
Econ Calendar for week of 5/15/17
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep site features updated.
Options Expiration 5/12/17
#OptionsExpiration #Earnings #RiskReversal #IronCondors #CallButterfly #SPXcampaign
— Expiring w/Max Profit —
NVDA 95 put
SPX 2375/2350 put spreads
— Expiring w/loss —
JAZZ 155/157.5/160/162.5 iron condors, sold for 1.80, .70 loss
PCLN 1925/1950/1975, and 1975/2000/2025 call butterflys
— Expiring worthless —
SPX risk/reversal: LONG 2410/2430 call spreads, SHORT 2355/2330 put spreads
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Need one more call spread to finish the week:
Sold to Open $SPX June 9th 2440/2465 call spreads for 1.40, right at the bell.
PANW covered calls
#Earnings #CoveredCalls Earnings announced May 31st.
STO PANW May 26th 119 call for 1.35
STO PANW June 16th 130 call for 1.80
Renew my Risk/Reversal subscription
#SPXcampaign I don’t give up easy. This is my fourth #RiskReversal in a row. Learned my lesson this week… since I have been selling a new one each Friday two weeks out, it means I have two R/R’s going at all times. On Monday’s and Tuesday’s record highs, could have sold this week’s and gotten a decent profit. Instead, I waited for a longer and higher rally that never came.
So today, the May 12th r/r expires, I’m sitting on a May 22nd r/r, and now I’ve added this one:
Bought to open $SPX May 26th 2410/2430 call spreads for 3.50
Sold to Open SPX May 26th 2365/2340 put spreads for 3.35.
Rough profit/loss on the strategy so far: ZERO. But the idea is to profit on a strong rally, which has not happened yet (or may not happen at all) during this Upside Warning.
NVDA, partial roll
#Earnings BTC $NVDA May 12th 115 calls for 13.40.
STO June 16th 120 puts for 2.45.
Looking for an 11.00 fill on the 120 calls for a June straddle, but price dropped into close. Will try to fill tomorrow.
TAP stock sold
#Earnings #LongStock Took a small loss on these to close the position and free up margin. Had a chance to get out with profit on Monday, but got greedy and thought I’d wait for higher prices. No dice.
Sold to close $TAP stock for 92.80. Assigned via 95 puts last Friday, cost basis 93.00, so .20 loss on the trade.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Selling an extra spread here as a hedge against a double-sized position in puts I have for the same expiration. This filled 5 seconds after the closing bell:
Sold to Open $SPX May 19th 2415/2440 call spreads for 2.00. These are PM settled, next Friday. They are no longer called SPXPM and appear on the chains with all other SPX weekly options. Please see the notice below from CBOE:
The Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. will be changing the symbol for existing SPXPM option series to option symbol SPXW. The conversion is planned for May 1, 2017. Any open Good ‘til Cancelled (GTC) orders in SPXPM will be cancelled by the Exchange after the close of business the evening prior to the conversion.
See Regulatory Circular RG17-054 for details (https://www.cboe.com/publish/RegCir/RG17-054.pdf).
SPX switcheroo
#SPXcampaign Running into some margin limitations today as I am weighted toward the short put side so wasn’t able to sell more put spreads on my portfolio margin account. So, I am closing a short-term put spread and selling a call spread as a #ReverseRoll. This clears me to sell a longer-term put spread to fulfill my campaign objectives. This is playing on the assumption we are hitting some lows this week for a bounce into monthly expiration next week.
Bought to close $SPX May 18th 2340/2315 put spreads for 1.20. Sold as part of an iron condor for 3.40 on Apr 25th.
#ReverseRoll Sold to Open SPX May 18th 2415/2440 call spreads for 1.30.
Sold to Open SPX June 9th 2290/2265 put spreads for 1.40.
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator…
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
SNAP snapped
This stuff writes itself. Bought some shares after hours, 100x at 17.64 and 100x at 17.25. Because… why not?
This week in covered calls
#CoveredCalls #Earnings
BTC $FB May 12th 147 call for 4.00 (yesterday). Sold for 5.25 on 4/28 as a roll.
BTC $PANW May 19th 116 call for 1.60. Sold for 1.15 on 4/25
Both of these will be replaced with higher strikes the next time each stock rallies.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 9th 2450/2475 call spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2398.
PCLN addition
#Earnings Added a call butterfly at 1925/1950/1975 for 3.00. So I now have a bullish double hump, with max profits at 1950 or 2000. Now watch it go down….
NVDA earnings
#Earnings Legging into the NVDA May 12th 95/115 strangle. Just sold the 115 calls for .75. Bid is in to sell the 95 puts for 1.30. Trade leans bullish as past earnings reports have a solid bullish bias. Biggest UP move: 29.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.4%, Average move: 9.6%. These strikes are +10.6% and -8.7% OTM.
PCLN earnings trade
#Earnings Bought to Open $PCLN May 12th 1975/2000/2025 call butterfly for 2.20. Max risk, 2.20, max gain, about 2200.
Small trade shooting for the high open interest at 2000.
SPX, puts closed, puts sold
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX May 15th 2340/2315 put spreads for .30. Sold in a condor last week for 3.90.
Sold to Open SPX June 9th 2310/2285 put spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2401.
SPX one closed, one rolled
#SPXcampaign
Bought to close $SPX May 10th 2375/2350 put spreads for .20. Sold for 4.15 on Apr 26th. This was sold on the day the Upside Warning fired.
STOPPED: Bought to close $SPX May 15th 2415/2440 call spreads for 2.25. Sold in an iron condor for 3.90 last Wednesday.
#ReverseRoll Sold SPX May 17th 2380/2355 put spreads for 2.35. Moved this 2 days further out, but still only 8 days from now… bullish action should continue but may not last too long, so I’m keeping aggressive put spreads close in expiration, for maximum theta burn.
JAZZ earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $JAZZ May 12th 155/157.5/160/162.5 iron condors for 1.80. Max risk .70.
Biggest UP move: 6.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.7%, Average move: 2.8%.
With stock at 158.50, short strikes are about 0.8% OTM. Breakevens are 1.9% OTM.
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
I made no new SPX trades today, but have finally caught up and the position chart is now up to date.
We hit a 10 year low on the VIX today, lowest since December 2006.
Econ Calendar for week of 5/8/17
Don’t forget to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” (above) to keep all features on Bistro updated
Upside Warning Update
#VIXIndicator Friday’s close was an all-time record, and just pennies short of the all-time intraday high. However it is only 0.5% above the close of the upside warning day (4/26). I’m including this chart again to show you the moves on all previous upside warnings. 0.5% would be one of the lowest ever, so more upside is likely.
Final trades and Options Expiration 5/5/17
Gangbuster week with consolidating indices and no losers in earnings trades (one breakeven and one assignment)
#SPXcampaign
Sold to Open $SPX June 2nd 2310/2285 put spreads for 1.50
#VXXGame
BTC $SVXY May 26th 85 put for .15. Sold for 1.45 on Apr 21st
#Earnings
Sold to close $GRPN May 5th long 4 puts for .62; filled near the open, breakeven on the 4 straddle.
Previously closed winners this week: CMI, TSLA, CHTR, MELI, STMP.
#OptionsExpiration
— Expiring w/max profit —
$FB 146, 147, and 148 puts
$REGN 355/375/430/450 iron condors
— Expiring worthless (breakeven) —
$SPX risk/reversal: Long 2415/2435 call spreads, short 2435/2415 put spreads
— Assignment —
$TAP 92/95/98 Iron Butterfly; taking the stock from 95 puts, cost basis 93.00. I was going to close this for breakeven but missed the fill.
SPX, try again…
#SPXcampaign #RiskReversal
Bought to open $SPX May 22nd 2410/2435 call spreads for 4.75
Sold to Open $SPX May 22nd 2375/2350 put spreads for 4.80
A third week in a row where I’m putting a trade out there for a push to new SPX all-time highs. Fortunately, the risk/reversal method means zero losses so far, despite being wrong about the hoped-for rally.
MELI closed
#Earnings Bought to close $MELI May 19th 210 puts for .05. Sold yesterday for 1.55.
JOBS report for April
Non-farm payroll: +211,000, way up from March +79,000 (revised downward)
UE rate: 4.4%, lowest since 2007
U6: 8.6%, lowest since 2007
Avg hourly earnings: +0.3%
Labor Force Participation: 62.9%, down a tick from March
MELI again
#Earnings I know nothing about this company, but a put sale works every earnings period and I wish to hell I owned this stock for the last 8 years.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Order was in this morning for 1.65… got a partial fill (rare on SPX) at the intraday high of 2390… now I can’t even get filled for 1.45 on the rest.
Sold to Open $SPX June 2nd 2445/2470 call spreads for 1.65
MELI earnings
#Earnings Not seeing much to trade today, but this one has always been a winner win I trade it bullishly.
Sold $MELI May 19th 210 puts for 1.55. Over last 12 reports, its 13-DAY moves: Biggest UP move: 22.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.6%, Average move: 9.1%. This trade is -10.6% OTM.
STMP earnings closed
#Earnings Bought to close $STMP May 5th 90 puts for .05. Sold yesterday for 1.30.
TSLA earnings closed
#Earnings Bought to close $TSLA May 5th 290/350 straddles for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.83. Nice profit and release of margin power for today’s earnings trades.
FINAL earnings trades for the day
#Earnings Added to FB ladder… sold $FB May 5th 146 puts for .81
Sold to close (1x) $GRPN 4 put for .60… breakeven on that one, but keeping the others for one more day.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX May 18th 2460/2485 call spreads for .15.
Sold to open SPX May 15th 2315/2340/2415/2440 #IronCondor for 3.90
CMI earnings closed
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Bought to close $CMI May 5th 140/160 strangles for .50. Sold for 1.00 on Monday. Got a nice pullback today after it breached my call strike yesterday. Closing now to avoid a rally in the stock, and also to clear up margin.
TSLA earnings
#Earnings Sold May 5th 290/350 strangles for 1.83. Over last 12 reports, Biggest UP move: 11.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.3%, Average move: 5.6%.
SVXY closures
#VXXGame Closing the call to free up margin for more earnings trades. I will consider replacing it later.
Closed $SVXY June 16th 140 call for 15.10. Sold for 6.60 on Jan 2oth as a roll.
Closed $SVXY May 90 puts for .165 (avg price). Sold for 1.95 on Apr 19th.
REGN and STMP earnings
#Earnings #ironcondor
Sold $REGN May 5th 355/375/430/450 iron condors for 2.40. Biggest UP move: 4.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.3%, Average move: 2.8%. My short strikes are -7.2% and +6.4% OTM
#ShortPuts Sold $STMP May 5th 90 puts for 1.30. Biggest UP move: 38.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -16.1%, Average move: 15.3%. This trade is 16.1% OTM.
Options Bistro 