#FOMC Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday morning.
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
Recent Updates Page 233
TSLA strangle
Bought to close part of my $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 3.467. Sold Wednesday for 9.825.
Probably will wait for Monday before closing more.
File Under What Was I thinking
#becs
$AMZN BTC 3/20 2050/2080 BECS at 17. STO On 2/3 for 13. Yuck!
ZM Roll
#coveredcalls
$ZM BTC 2/14 82.50 and STO 3/6 88 at .09 credit extra. Earnings on 3/4. Thesis is earnings run and stock currently at 88.13. Gain another 9 cents plus 5.50 if assigned. Probably too good to be true.
EWW strangle
Borrowing an idea from TastyTrade. Sold $EWW 3/20 45/48 strangle @ 1.20.
TSLA
Yesterday STO $TSLA Feb 7 Calls @10.50. Selling against existing March 21 2020 585 Long calls.
Today – Rolled above $TSLA 800 Feb 7 Call to Feb 14 800 @28.00.
Thanks @optioniceman
Oil futures have weeklies :)
Taking advantage after the drop.
STO the /CL next week 45.5/55 strangle for 0.23. Plan to close or roll by Monday or Tuesday. The theta decays is huge 285 a day on 5 contracts.
Have not had time to post but this is good news, too good not to share.
Working on dispersion trading. Income trading plus directional kicks when opportunity is there.
Will update after the live trading session at the end of the month.
Hope everyone is doing/trading well.
AMZN Roll Calls
#syntheticcoveredcalls
$AMZN BTC 2/7 2085 call and STO 2/14 2140 calls at 1.85 extra credit. Sold against long 2/21 1900 calls.
AMAT, ABBV
AMAT…BTC FEB 20 63 CALL @.05….STO 1/29 @.41…..Earnings on 2/12 selling at expected move…STO 14 FEB 66 CALL @.48….Cost basis with this sale at $56.83…#CoveredCalls #pietrade
ABBV….BTC on GTC order 20 MAR 75 PUT @.20….STO 1/31 @1.19….#shortputs
TRADES:
SYY BTO STOCK @76.80 Been accumulating, 50 shares at a time.
PINS BTO STOCK 26.23 Up on earnings
PINS STO 2/14/20 27.5 CALLS @.65
LULU
#shortcallspreads TSLA Sold Feb. 21,…
#shortcallspreads TSLA
Sold Feb. 21, 825/835 call spread for 2.27, chippin away
SAVE Puts
#shortputs
$SAVE STO 2/21 42.5 puts at 1.10
WYNN put spread
With IV still elevated post earnings, sold $WYNN 3/20 120/110 bull put spread @ 2.43. Possibly early on this but strike is below the January lows and the 200 day moving average. If I’m wrong I will close this quickly.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator Forgot to note that yesterday the Downside Warning was canceled when $SPX hit all-time highs. $VIX hasn’t dropped a lot, however, so it may not mean all-clear ahead.
MRVL Puts
#shortputs
$MRVL STO 2/14 24 puts at .53.
TLT
STO IC 139/137 146.5/148.5 Mar 13 $0.63
UBER
BTO Dbl Cal 37.50 $0.60
forgot to post it yesterday.
January Jobs Report
#Jobs — beating expectations
+225,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 158K expected
Unemployment at 3.6%, up by 0.1%
U6 unemployment at 6.9%, up by 0.2%
Wages up 0.2%, to 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 63.4%, up by 0.2%
December revised up from 145K to 147K
November revised up from 256K to 261K
MTCH
STO April 70 puts at 2.05, next earnings are not until May and $70 is near the low in December.
NFLX short calls
Sold $NFLX 2/21 395 calls (covered by stock) @ 1.75. Delta 14.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 7th 3280/3300-3370/3390 for 1.10. IV: 10.46%, SPX SPX 3343, deltas: -.07, .08
GNRC
STO May 15, 90 puts at 2.35, earnings are on Feb. 13 but, I will take the chance. Stock trading at 102.74
Rolling BA
$BA the short calls from my 2/21 iron condor (290/300/340/350) just got breached with the stock up nicely today. I rolled the 300/290 bull put spread up to 340/330 for 3.73 credit to create an iron butterfly with the call spread. A pretty aggressive roll to near the money but this is a strong move up through the 50 day moving average on volume. Total premium taken on now 6.31 against 10 point wide wings. If the move continues I will roll to March.
TSLA strangle
Yesterday morning I sold the $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 9.825. When the stock peaked around 780 today, these two options were about equal in value… despite the put being 230 points away, and the call being 520 points away! Stock action is indicating that the super crazy moves may be subsiding, despite the heavy skew to the call side. I’m looking to sell another one in the Feb 21st expiration, but I will likely wait until tomorrow. Would like to see this one get at least to 4.90 (50%) before I consider closing.
Since the price target is now $7,000 in 5 years, would love to get a long LEAP but the highest strikes are 1880 and going for 40.00-ish.
PINS earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $PINS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its 3 quarters of existence.
Oct. 31, 2019 AC -17.02%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC +18.62%
May 16, 2019 AC -13.48%
Avg (+ or -) 16.37%
Bias -3.96%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 22.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 19.79 to 25.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 3 quarters: 19.03 to 26.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 3 Q’s (18.6%): 18.51 to 26.99
Based on DOWN max only (-17.0%): 18.88
Open to requests for other symbols.
#rolling TSLA For the feint…
#rolling TSLA
For the feint of heart who haven’t been following this, prepare yourself.
Rolled Feb. 21 inverted 300/430 short strangle to March 20 for 2.69. TSLA up to 770 today, uggh
I’ve now taken in $10,756, trying to avoid assignment.
Earnings chart error: BIDU
$BIDU is reporting on Feb 27.
UBER earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $UBER reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its 3 quarters of existence.
Nov. 4, 2019 AC -9.84%
Aug. 8, 2019 AC -6.79%
May 30, 2019 AC +1.53%
Avg (+ or -) 6.05%
Bias -5.03%%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 37.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 33.88 to 40.12
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 3 quarters: 34.76 to 39.24
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 3 Q’s (9.8%): 33.36 to 40.64
Based on UP max only (+1.5%): 37.57
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings UBER Dbl Cal? Any…
#earnings
UBER Dbl Cal?
Any thoughts? The vol crush looks promising but, I’ve only done a few.
NFLX
STO $NFLX Feb-14-2020 340/350 #BuPS @1.00. Short put is 17 Delta.
This is one I’m going to watch closely, and will close out quickly if it moves too much the wrong direction.
CMG
CMG TWTR Put Closed / HIIQ Roll Call (Present!)
#shortputs #earnings
$CMG BTC 2/7 820 put at .05. STO at 6.30 2/4.
$TWTR BTC 2/21 30 put at .03. STO 12/30 at 1.20. Thank you @fuzzballl
#coveredcalls
$HIIQ BTC 2/21 24 call and STO 3/20 26 call at added .55 credit. Earnings are 3/5.
PAYC
STO March 270 puts at 5.40, stock at 298 after earnings last night.
CAH
BTC on GTC order CAH Feb 21 52 put @.15…STO 1/29 @.92
Living on the edge
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 7th 3300 call for 37.80.
This was the short spread I sold Monday for 4.30. I must have been high on hopium the next day when I was clearly wrong and didn’t close it.
And today I must be higher because I’m trying to leg out. But if the pattern repeats itself, we get a small sell off from morning gap-up down to flat, then we rally rest of day. So hopefully now my long 3325 calls will rally higher and I will lessen the closing price of the spread from its current 20.00 down closer to 10.00.
TWTR closing
#Earnings Based on pre-market I set my first order for 3 of my 9 options to close too cheaply.
Sold (3) $TWTR Feb 7th 33.5 calls for 3.50. Then a few minutes later sold (5) for 4.60. Only 1 left.
#LongStrangles bought for 3.05 yesterday.
GSX SAVE Puts / AAPL BUPS Closed / OKTA PLAN Calls Rolled / SPX Campaign
#shortputs
$GSX STO 2/21/30 puts at 31
$SAVE BTC 2/21 40 put at .60. STO 1/13 at 2.35
#bups
$AAPL BTC 2/21 340/350 BUPS at .50. STO 1/28 for 1.91
#coveredcalls
$OKTA BTC 2/7 132 and STO 2/14 134 at added .40. Too bad stock tanked.
$PLAN BTC 2/21 and STO 3/20 65 at .40 debit. Then stock tanked. Quite the pattern. )-:
#optionsexpiration #spx1-dte
3245/3445/3340/3360
Thank you @jeffcp66
Slowing the DRIP
Bought to close 3/20 184 call @ .85. Sold for 2.75 on 1/31.
TWTR earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $TWTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2019 BO -20.80% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2019 BO +8.91%
April 23, 2019 BO +15.64%
Feb. 7, 2019 BO -9.83%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +15.46%
July 27, 2018 BO -20.54%
April 25, 2018 BO -2.36%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO +12.15%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO +18.49% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 BO -14.12%
April 26, 2017 BO +7.91%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO -12.33%
Avg (+ or -) 13.21%
Bias -0.12%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 33.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.93 to 36.57
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 28.86 to 37.64
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.8%): 26.33 to 40.17
Based on UP max only (+18.5%): 39.40
Open to requests for other symbols.
CTSH earnings analysis
#Earnings $CTSH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.75%
July 31, 2019 AC +1.94%
May 2, 2019 AC -11.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO +4.62%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO -3.90%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO -6.37%
May 7, 2018 BO -5.24%
Feb. 7, 2018 BO +3.54%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO -2.81%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO +2.08%
May 5, 2017 BO +4.06%
Feb. 8, 2017 BO +4.94% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.36%
Bias -0.54%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 64.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 61.81 to 67.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 62.07 to 67.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 57.74 to 72.06
Based on UP max only (+4.9%): 68.11
Open to requests for other symbols.
TTD
Down 5% today. STO March 20, 230 put at 5.30 but earnings are on 2/27, stock is at 287
TSLA call spread
Sold $TSLA 3/20 900/920 bear call spread @ 4.00
ALB
STO March 20, 80 puts at 2.61 with stock at 86.25 , earnings are on Feb. 19, they mine lithium used in batteries.
What have I done
This premium is almost as insane as the stock’s move. Finally jumping in; it’s hard to believe I can’t be confident in this trade!
Sold $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 9.825
#earningsDIS BTC DIS IC .14…
#earningsDIS
BTC DIS IC .14
STO yesterday for .99
REGN earnings analysis
#Earnings $REGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 5, 2019 BO +6.93%
Aug. 6, 2019 BO +0.23%
May 7, 2019 BO -6.34% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Avg (+ or -) 3.57%
Bias 0.80%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 367.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 348.22 TO 386.78
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 354.39 TO 380.61
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 341.81 TO 393.19
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 344.20
Open to requests for other symbols.
Closing NUGT
Bought to close:
$NUGT 6/19 47 call @ 1.51. Sold for 3.85 on 12/24.
$NUGT 6/19 51 call @ 1.17. Sold for 4.00 on 12/30.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 5th 3225/3245-3340/3360 condors for .95, IV 12.89%, SPX 3304, deltas -.06, .06
CMG
BTO Feb 7 932.5/940.0/974.5 Call BF $0.25 Earnings expected move.
AMD, SQ, XBI
BTC AMD 28 FEB 43 PUT @.30…STO 1/29 @.79…Thanks @ramie77
BTC SQ 21 FEB 70 PUT @.15…STO 1/29 @.55…
BTC XBI 21 FEB 85 PUT @.40…STO 1/24 @1.05…
BEAT
STO March 20, 50 put at 2.66, earnings are on Feb. 19
CMG Jade Lizard
#jadelizard #earnings
$CMG STO 2/7 820 put and STO 900/910 BECS at total credit of 9.75 Thanks for the data @jeffcp66
#earnings #closing CMI Yesterday bought…
MEI
Rolled MEI Feb-21-2020 35 #CoveredCall // Mar-20-2020 35 @0.95.
EXAS REGN ROKU
#ShortPuts – Gonna be out most of the week except to check in for a quick earnings trade hopefully. Taking some risk off on the big bounce…
EXAS: Earnings next week so getting completely out to re-sell then. I guessed wrong on the date when originally selling this one.
Bought to Close EXAS FEB 14 2020 87.5 Put @ 1.70 (sold for 2.20)
REGN: Assigned stock at 380 and rode it to 280 and back to 400 and back to 320 selling around it the whole time 🙂 Unloading stock on this bounce to get within 5.80 of even. Earnings this week so I’ll re-enter then.
Sold shares @ 350.00
ROKU: Earnings next week so booking this week.
Bought to Close ROKU FEB 7 2020 120.0/100.0 Bull Put Spreads @ .40 (sold for 2.15)
WORK
STO $WORK 25 Mar-20-2020 #CoveredCalls @0.75
CMG earnings analysis
#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 22, 2019 AC -5.15%
July 23, 2019 AC +5.18%
April 24, 2019 AC -4.46%
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +11.35%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Avg (+ or -) 7.84%
Bias 0.91%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 880.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 824.29 to 935.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 811.02 to 948.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 664.93 to 1095.07
Based on DOWN max only (-14.6%): 751.70
Open to requests for other symbols.
#closing #shortputs TSLA I’m a…
#closing #shortputs TSLA
I’m a long long way from anything reasonable in TSLA.
Today sold Feb. 21, 700 put for 28.55. After this crazy move today I bought it back for 24.10. I’ll look at it again tomorrow.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Yes, I’m going for a bearish trade again. My sentiment was accurate last week but buying a put spread was the wrong play. It did carry less risk, but had I sold a call spread like this it would have worked.
Sold $SPX Feb 7th 3300/3325 call spreads for 4.30.
#earnings #shortstrangles CMI Sold Feb….
Sold Feb. 21, 150/175 strangle for 1.49, inside of 1 day max moves, stock at 164.
Thanks for ther data Jeff.
CMI earnings analysis
#Earnings $CMI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 29, 2019 BO -1.61%
July 30, 2019 BO -5.05%
April 30, 2019 BO +1.30%
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -0.31%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO +2.29%
July 31, 2018 BO +4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +6.09% Biggest UP
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +3.06%
Avg (+ or -) 3.15%
Bias -0.35%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 157.24 to 170.76
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 158.84 to 169.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.1%): 154.01 to 173.99
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 154.75
FYI, 5-day Max moves are +7.95% and -9.58%.
Open to requests for other symbols.
TRADES:
I BTC 2/7/20 7.5 CALLS @.05 STO @.35
I STO 2/14/20 4.5 CALLS @.30
SYY BTO STOCK @77.33 & 77.55 Had a big drop today.
MRVL ROKU ZM Calls / NEWT Assigned Early / GSX Put Closed
#coveredcalls
$MRVL STO 2/21 25 call at .60
$ROKU STO 2/7 25 call at 1.60
$ZM STO 2/7 78 call at 1.25
#shortputs #earlyassignment
$NEWT 2/21 22.50 assigned. Basis 22.05. Stock at 20.73. Ooops
$GSX BTC 2/21 30 put at $2.00. STO on 1/23 at 2.60. Corona aversion.
#earnings #closing #pain TSLA Jan….
GOOGL earnings analysis
#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 28, 2019 AC -2.19%
July 25, 2019 AC +9.62% Biggest UP
April 29, 2019 AC -7.50% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 4, 2019 AC +0.91%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -1.79%
July 23, 2018 AC +3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +4.26%
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Avg (+ or -) 4.02%
Bias -0.29%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1470.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1390.91 to 1549.09
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1410.92 to 1529.08
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 1328.59 to 1611.41
Based on DOWN max only (-7.5%): 1359.75
FYI, 5-day Max moves are +8.10% and -8.23%, so not much difference.
Open to requests for other symbols.
TSLA
BTC $TSLA 490/500 Feb 21 #BuPS @0.20. Was STO 1/29 @2.1
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 3rd 3105 puts for .05. Condors sold Friday for 1.25. I’ll let the 3285 call side expire.
SMH
BTC…SMH 21 FEB 152/155 BECS @.10….STO 1/3 @.51
Expiration / Assignment / LABU Calls Closed / T Put Rolled
#optionsexpiration
$EXAS 105 call
$ROKU 135 call
$ROKU 130 call
$LK 41 call
$ZM 73 call
$RACE Long call. BTO at $4.00. Car never started.
$SPX 1 DTE 3210/3190/3305/3325 I think. My account shows it at a loss for the put side. See on Monday.
#assignment
$ZM 73 call Called away
$MRVL 27 put Basis 26.50
$LK 37 put Basis 35.30
#shortcalls
$LABU BTC 2/7 51 calls at 1.10. STO on 1/28 for 2.80.
$T BTC 1/31 37.50 put and STO 2/7 37.50 put at added .30 credit.
ABBV
VXX shorts
#VXXGame First VXX shorts of the year: Sold $VXX Apr 18 calls for 2.00. Against long 25 and 27 calls.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 3rd 3085/3105-3285/3305 condors for 1.25. IV 18.15%, SPX 3218, deltas -.06, .06
(Hopefully) expiring: Jan 31st 3210/3190-3305/3325 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.
FXI
BTO Feb 7 39.5 Put $0.71 Taking a shot at china opening down Monday
XBI
#ShortPuts – Adding one…
Sold XBI MAR 20 2020 79.0 Put @ 1.04
