YELP earnings analysis

#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65% Biggest UP
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66%
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%

Avg (+ or -) 14.39%
Bias -1.54%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 34.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.64 to 38.56
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 29.19 to 39.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 24.67 to 43.53
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 25.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

#longstraddle, #longstrangle

Ketch-down

#PieTrades #dividends Bought some stock in one account at 26.70. On all accounts, started a #PieTrade:
Sold $KHC Aug 23rd 27 puts for 1.23

thanks for the idea @honkhonk81

SPX bailing

#SPX1dte Getting ripped to the upside so I had to bail. Yesterday’s open was possibly the low, and I should have realized that as the market ticked steadily higher in the afternoon. Instead, I doubled down. Live and learn (or make bad trades and learn). That ends my streak of killer returns that started with the Upside Warning on July 5th. I will now resume neutral trades until the market shows its true direction. Probably going higher but not certain until VIX gets lower.

BTC $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 15.35. Sold for 9.00 on Tuesday.
BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 10.60. Sold for 5.20 yesterday.

TRADES: Dancing w/devil. ;>)

KHC STO 8/9/19 27.0 NTM CALLS @ .50
KHC STO 8/9/19 26.5 NTM PUTS @.44 Expires tomorrow.

WYNN

#CoveredCalls – Assigned early on some stock which was fine with me. Getting a chance to sell into the bounce and capture the divvy next week.

Sold WYNN AUG 30 2019 115.0 Call @ 2.54

#rolling ROKU Rolled Sept. 20…

#rolling ROKU

Rolled Sept. 20 60 put to 90 for 1.34, put is from 60/140 earnings strangle. ROKU is at 120.

#earnings #closing LYFT Bought 2…

#earnings #closing LYFT

Bought 2 calls X 1 put Aug. 16 strangle for 1.15, sold yesterday for 3.55.

DIS put spread

Sold $DIS 9/20 130/120 bull put spread @ 1.57

#earnings LYFT #tastytradefollow Sold Aug….

#earnings LYFT Z

LYFT #tastytradefollow Sold Aug. 16, 52/70/70 strangle for 3.55.
Z sold Sept. 20, 40/60 strangle for 2.28, thanks for the data Jeff

X puts

Sold $X 9/20 11 puts @ .50

Z earnings trade

#Earnings Sold $Z Aug 9th 40/44-56/60 condors for 1.265. It’s got a couple of big moves recently but otherwise fairly quiet. Also sold 42/44-56/58 for .75 in smaller account.

#earnings ROKU Sold Sept. 20,…

#earnings ROKU

Sold Sept. 20, 60/140 strangle for 2.57 with ROKU around 100.

SPX 2-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 5.25. Still looking for more downside, or at least resistance at 2900.

Z earnings analysis

#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 9, 2019 AC +5.04%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%

Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias -1.36%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 50.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 43.33 to 56.67
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.18 to 54.82
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 36.54 to 63.46
Based on UP max only (+26.4%): 63.18

Open to requests for other symbols.

DRIP new highest strikes

Sold $DRIP 9/20 164 Call @ 9.00

TRADES:

PAYS STO 8/16/19 12.5 PUTS @1.00
PAYS STO 8/16/19 12.5 CALLS @.80 Will cover if necessary.
CSII BTO STOCK @43.75
STNE BTO STOCK @34.99

#earnings #closing WYNN Bought Sept….

#earnings #closing WYNN

Bought Sept. 20, 90/130 strangle for 2.38, sold yesterday for 3.02. Maybe several other trades can cooperate now.

TNA

#CoveredCalls – Basis reduction is about all you can do here…

Bought to Close TNA AUG 09 2019 59.0 Call @ .08 (sold for 1.56)
Sold TNA AUG 16 2019 54.0 Call @ 2.05

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2795/2775 put spreads for 1.40. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.
At the lows, SPX was within its expected move to my short strike, so I’m stopping out on the bounce.

SQ

#CoveredCalls – Getting some fresh premium going while volatility is still up a little…

Bought to Close SQ AUG 16 2019 71.0 Calls @ .20 (sold for 1.34)
Sold SQ SEP 6 2019 70.0 Calls @ 1.27

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2775/2795-2930/2950 condors for 1.25, IV 21.5%, SPX 2877.

A TRADE:

CSII BTO STOCK @42.98

TRADES:

STNE STO 8/16/19 38.0 CALLS @.70
AMD STO 8/9/1930.0 CALLS @.23 COVERED
YETI STO 8/9/1930.0 ITM PUTS @1.05

#earnings DIS Sold Sept. 20,…

#earnings DIS

Sold Sept. 20, 130/150 strangle for 3.49, thank you Jeff for the data.

TRADES:

BYND STO 8/9/19 170/175 BeCS @.75
STNE BTO STOCK @35.02
PAYS BTO STOCK @10.98

DIS earnings analysis

#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 8, 2019 AC -1.03%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -1.10%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +1.72%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87% Biggest DOWN
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +2.86% Biggest UP
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +1.23%

Avg (+ or -) 1.78%
Bias -0.47%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 140 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 133.71 to 146.29
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.51 to 142.49
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (3.9%): 134.58 to 145.42
Based on UP max only (+2.9%): 144.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings WYNN Sold Sept. 20,…

#earnings WYNN

Sold Sept. 20, 90/130 strangle for 3.02. Thanks for the data Jeff.

TRADES:

YETI STO 8/9/19 30.5 CALLS @.50
YETI STO 8/9/19 28.5 PUTS @.65
V STO 8/9/19 167.5/162.5 BuPS @.75

#earnings #closing PG July 29,…

#earnings #closing PG
July 29, sold a Sept. 20 iron fly for 5.97, bought it today for 5.81. PG went way up on earnings and went down for 4 straight days, position finally, ever so slightly profitable.

SPX 1-dayer

SPX 2760/2755 BuPS for 0.20-0.25 for tomorrow, you can adjusted if the SPX down to yesterday low

WYNN earnings analysis

#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 9, 2019 AC -4.72%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%

Avg (+ or -) 6.25%
Bias -2.15%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 110.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 101.52 to 118.48
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 103.13 to 116.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 95.56 to 124.44
Based on UP max only (+8.7%): 119.54

Open to requests for other symbols.

ISRG

#JadeLizards – Rolling call spread down to the short put strike for additional premium. Still no upside risk but won’t make as much on a rally.

Rolled ISRG AUG 16 2019 535.0/540.0 BeCS to ISRG AUG 16 2019 500.0/505.0 BeCS @ 1.78 credit.

Total premium received now is up to 7.70. Make 2.70 on a big rally or receive stock at a basis of 492.30

WYNN Earnings

#CoveredCalls #Earnings – Similar to REGN yesterday rolling a covered call down aggressively for more premium. Fading the rally today…feels like all news is still bad news. REGN beat top and bottom and stock went nowhere.

Rolled WYNN AUG 09 2019 121.0 Call to AUG 09 2019 113.0 Call @ 2.40 credit (5.75 total now)

DRIP

#BearCallSpreads – After seeing a crude oil chart yesterday with Carter Worth talking about the potential downside in oil I’m moving my naked call into bear call spreads. Going out in time and increasing size to make it worthwhile. I believe DRIP will be below 70 by 2021. Recently I’ve been trying to really cap my losses to the upside and this helps with that.

Rolled DRIP DEC 20 2019 115.0 Call to JAN 15 2021 70.0/80.0 Bear Call Spreads

Total credit in the spreads is now 1.60 per spread. I look at this as being similar to long term UVXY positions I’ve had in the past on huge spikes…

SPX another round

#SPX1dte I think we have at least one more leg down.

Sold $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 9.00

#closing SPX Sold Sept. 20,…

#closing SPX
Sold Sept. 20, 2825/2840 LCS spread for 10.10 bought yesterday for 9.5

SPX closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80.

Highest VIX

#VIXindicator Today was the highest $VIX since January 3rd, when VIX was dropping from its Christmas Eve highs.

$VXX and $UVXY were higher in May, as they suffer from Contango.

Over on SMM

Someone posted that Trump has accepted an invitation to visit China for what that is worth.

#closing #shortstock DISH IP HIG…

#closing #shortstock DISH IP HIG #longcallspread SPX
I was able to close these 3 for small gains as earlier this year I was selling short stock at one of the worst times in history.
SPZ #tastytradefollow bought Sept 20, 2825/2840 for 9.50, playing for a bounce.

SPX put spread

#SPX1dte Didn’t get any bounce to sell call spreads, so tried a put spread.

Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for 1.80. Hopefully I can close this tomorrow.

Two more Warnings fired today, but I gotta think at least a small relief rally will happen tomorrow. This is a pretty brutal day. #VIXindicator

SPY

#ShortPuts – Adding here. Almost caught the high of the day on this one…

Sold SPY OCT 18 2019 270 Put @ 5.50

QQQ

I sold a small amount of the 170 puts at 3.17 in my IRA. I would be taking the stock at the 200 day MA if assigned.

REGN Earnings

#CoveredCalls – Rolling covered call down fairly aggressively to slightly inside the expected move. Seems like all news will be bad news for awhile no matter what they report.

Rolled REGN AUG 09 2019 325.0 Call to AUG 09 2019 312.5 Call @ 2.65 credit (4.95 total now)

Worden/TC 2000 readings

T2108 24.63
T2122 2.75

REGN earnings analysis

#Earnings $REGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 7, 2019 BO -6.34% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%

Avg (+ or -) 3.25%
Bias 0.18%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 300.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 279.50 to 320.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 290.24 to 309.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 279.03 to 320.97
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 290.98

Open to requests for other symbols.

NUGT’s up

#ContangoETFs NUGT is reaching highest levels since Sept 2017. These are my first sales where I am #Rolling from stopped 35 calls.

Sold $NUGT Jan 2020 50 calls for 5.75.

SPX 1-dayer

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 2.90. Sold Friday for 10.30.

If we get any strong bounce today I’ll try this again.

Have a nice weekend

I am done for the day.

SQ

#CoveredCalls – Getting a tiny bounce so selling covered calls at the 200ma resistance. Using spreads since no naked calls in this account and won’t get the stock until the weekend.

Sold SQ AUG 16 2019 71.0/81.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.34

LABU

#CoveredCalls – Can’t quite get it to expire…

Rolled LABU AUG 02 2019 42.0 Call to AUG 23 2019 44.0 Call @ 1.95 credit

TNA

#CoveredCalls – Selling the weekly at 50ma/200ma resistance…

Bought to Close TNA AUG 02 2019 60.0 Call @ .06 (sold for 2.52)
Sold TNA AUG 09 2019 59.0 Call @ 1.56

REGN

#CoveredCalls – Earnings next week so selling just outside the expected move. I’ll adjust down if needed prior to the announcement.

Bought to Close REGN AUG 02 2019 312.5 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.30)
Sold REGN AUG 09 2019 325.0 Call @ 2.45

SPX

BTC 2850/2900 put spread that expires today at 1.15, I sold it yesterday at 1.40 so happy to be out of it. I still have Monday and Wednesday to worry about. I don’ t have large positions so I can roll them next week.

Econ Calendar for week of 8/5/19

Screen Shot 2019-08-02 at 10.16.56 AM
Screen Shot 2019-08-02 at 10.16.56 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=5&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

A TRADE: Getting back into GOOS

GOOS BTO STOCK, A little at a time @43.60, 43.69, 44.04

STO ANET Jan17’20 185 PUT…

STO ANET Jan17’20 185 PUT 5.50

UVXY call spread

Sold $UVXY 9/20 40/50 bear call spread @ 1.28

XBI

#ShortrPuts – Adding one here…

Sold XBI SEP 20 2019 80.0 Put @ 2.00

DRIP up

#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DRIP Sept 130 call for 6.40. Highest strike.

SPX

BTC August 2, 2800/2840 put spread at .05, sold at .60 cents. I may have to roll some other put spreads but want to see if we can bounce later today.

SPX aggressive

#SPX1dte Missed my chance yesterday but trying with an aggressive stance today:

Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 10.30. Looking for a sharp move down today, or coming days. I will not be waiting for expiration, and will take profits when it looks like we’re due for a bounce.

SWK hammered

(see what I did there?)
#Earnings Was early assigned on $SWK, so I exited long puts and stock for the same $2 loss I was facing if the condor had stayed in tact.
Sold the 148/150/152.5/155 condors for 1.30 last Friday, as a roll from earnings put spread. This increases my loss by .70 more, but I’m through with revenge trading for now.

SPX 1-dte put side closed

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 2nd 2880/2860 put spread for .30. Condors sold yesterday for .95.
Not waiting for puts to expire in this environment. The 3010/3030 call side should expire, though.

SQ-down big this morning

SQ-down big this morning

July Jobs Report

#Jobs — matching estimates for a change

+164,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 165K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.0%, down by 0.2
Wages up 0.3%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.0%, up 0.1
(Total labor force came in at a record-high 163.4 million)

June revised down from 224K to 193K
May revised down from 72K to 62K

Another warning

#VIXindicator I began to doubt it would show its stuff on day one, but the Downside Warning came through today, and a second warning fired at the close.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 2870/2890-3010/3030 condors for .95, IV: 18.99%, SPX 2958.

DRIP adding to Dec

Sold $DRIP 12/20 130 call @ 13.00. New highest strike.

VXX puts

Bought $VXX 8/16 26/22 bear put spread @ 1.91. Will look to take this off for near 3.00, hopefully soon if volatility retreats.

SPY

#ShortPuts – First sale in what I’m hoping will be a long term position. Been holding well over half my cash to start easing into this one. First sale down near the 200ma. VTI is probably a slightly better return but I prefer the liquidity. Now just need a chance to add a few more times.

Sold SPY SEP 20 2019 280.0 Put @ 2.96

7.8% annulaized if held to expiration…

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – Sold UVXY SEP 20 2019 45.0/55.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .83

SPX

STO August 2, 2800/2840 put spread at .60 cents.

STX

#Earnings #ShortPuts – Earnings tomorrow but I’m going out to Sep for safety. Divvy yield of 6.42% at a basis of 39.20. Trade itself makes 14.9% annualized if held to expiration.

Sold STX SEP 20 2019 40.0 Puts @ .80

#xop

bto aug 9/25 call @ .08
looking to btc for .75
when /cl move back to $58.00 ish