Jan. 23 I sold a Feb. 15 120/160 strangle, have made several adjustments, made another one. I had a May 17, inverted 160 call/190 put strangle that I rolled to June 21 165 put/185 inverted strangle for -.11. I’ve taken in 17.44 in premium through all the shenanigans. LRCX is at 189, down 8 today and has been as high as 209 a couple weeks ago.
Recent Updates Page 268
NTES Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Earnings not until Wednesday but selling a little early with the big down day today…
Sold 1 NTES MAY 17 2019 230.0 Put @ 3.00
CTL Puts / Roll BURL Today’s Expiration / IRBT Wild Ride Expiration
#shortputs
$CTL STO 6/21 10 puts at .30 Thank you @ramie77
#coveredcalls #optionsexpiration
$BURL BTC 5/10 170 call and STO 5/10 167.50 call at .80 credit. And it expired.
#optionsexpiration
Total Loss
$IRBT 95/100 and 100/105 BUPS
Total Gain
$IRBT 98 and 100 calls Thank you @honkhonk81 for the recovery trades. Well done.
Stopped already
#SPX1dte After selling the condor, SPX moved up from 2868 to top out at 2891, which was within the expected move for Monday. So I had to stop out of the call side for 1.40.
I may sell a same day condor on Monday if the open in quiet, but otherwise this one’s s small loss.
A TRADE:
AMD BTO STOCK @28.00 Have a great and safe weekend everbody.
Hedges
That is what bailed me out this past couple of days. I had VXX calls took a nice profit. Then bought VXX put spread, covered most of my other bad trades (that at this time would not have been bad).
A TRADE:
VFF STO 5/17/19 13.0 CALLS @.45 Must have had decent earnings yesterday.
TQQQ rolls
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Earlier: BTC $TQQQ May 17th 68.5 calls for .12. Sold for 1.26 on Monday.
Now: Sold TQQQ May 31st 65 calls for 1.25
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 13th 2770/2790-2920/2940 condors for 1.15. (IV: 14.08%, SPX 2868)
Also, closed SPX May 17th 2960/2985 call spreads for .40. Sold on Monday for 3.15.
REGN UVXY XBI
#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Been an extremely busy week away from the market again but did manage a few…
REGN: Covered
Bought to Close REGN MAY 10 2019 350.0 Call @ .01 (sold for 4.08)
UVXY: Rolling
Rolled UVXY MAY 10 2019 37.5 Call to MAY 17 2019 40.0 Call @ .80 credit (2.05 total now)
Rolled UVXY MAY 10 2019 37.5 Call to MAY 24 2019 40.0 Call @ 1.65 credit (2.90 total now)
XBI: Adding
Sold XBI JUN 21 2019 78.0 Put @ 2.00
Econ Calendar for week of 5/13/19
Nothing big on the schedule but we’ll still have this trade mess. My prediction: no deal, yet, and will stretch into at least June.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=13&month=5&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#earnings #closing TWTR
April 22, sold a May 17, 30/39 strangle for 1.00, the next day rolled the put to 39 making a straddle. Closed today for 1.82 after collecting 2.11 in premium.
TRADES:
IRBT STC 5/10/19 95.0 PUTS @1.35
AMD STO 5/17/19 25.5 PUTS @.31
AMD STO 5/17/19 28.0 CALLS @.45
HIIQ STO 5/17/19 21.0 CALLS @.75
IRBT STO 5/17/19 97.5 CALLS @1.25
LYFT STO 5/17/19 58.0 CALLS @.90
LYFT STO 5/17/19 48.0 PUTS @.80
#shortstrangles TSLA
Sold June 21, 190/280 strangle for 5.55
Rolling IRBT
Rolled 5/17 95 puts down and out to 6/21 92.50 puts @ 1.90 credit with the stock now at 94.01.
Closing FB call spread
Bought to close $FB 6/21 205/215 bear call spread @ .68. Sold for 2.15 on 4/25.
#earnings #closing WYNN Z
WYNN Sold June 21 110/155 strangle for 3.39, bought this morning for 2.01
Z sold June 21, 35 straddle for 6.13, bought this morning for 4.86
A TRADE:
PBYI STO 5/17/19 21.0 CALLS @.50 Hit the butcher block today.
YELP closing
#Earnings Sold some 39.5 long puts for 3.75, but now waiting as it looks to want to drop more. #LongStrangle bought yesterday for 4.37.
Filled on next batch for 4.50 and 4.75.
SPX closed
#SPX1dte $SPX May 10th 2760/2780-2920/2940 condors closed for .30. Sold yesterday for 2.05. Super high premium paid off on pretty much the expected news on trade talks: “not yet.”
Closing EA
Meant to post this earlier–filled in the last hour of the trading day. Bought to close $EA 6/21 85/110 strangle @ 1.43. Sold for 2.16 yesterday so with the volatility contraction I was able to get out with a nice 1 day profit.
YELP strangle
#Earnings Bought to open $YELP May 10th 39.5/40 #LongStrangle for 4.37. I need an 11.8% move for breakeven. Avg move on earnings is 15.2%.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 10th 2760/2780-2920/2940 condors for 2.05. (IV 25.92%, SPX 2864)
A little more aggressive than normal from a delta standpoint, .08 on both sides rather than .06. But in quiet IV times I have gone as high as .10 to get enough premium, and these strikes are decently OTM. Puts 2.9% away and Calls 2.0% away. Yes, it’s possible, and if we get super big news tonight, I may get stopped out tomorrow.
CTL short puts
Sold $CTL 6/21 10 puts @ .33. Stock printing a hammer after the post-earnings gap down (between 3 and 4 standard deviations on the daily bollinger bands–now hanging around the 2SD lower band). If assigned, dividend yield will be 10% so I will likely take the stock if it closes below 10 at June expiration.
VXX long put spread
Again maybe a bit early, but on the chance that this vol spike has run its course, bought $VXX 5/31 32/27 bear put spread for 2.50 debit. 1:1 risk/reward. Breakeven in a little over 3 weeks is 29.50 with VXX currently trading at 30.76. Giving the trade a few weeks for vol to calm down in case I’m wrong. Will look to take 1.25-1.50 profit out of it.
Another UVXY call spread
Sold $UVXY 5/31 50/60 bear call spread @ 1.28
#shortstrangles AAPL
Sold June 21, 180/220 strangle for 2.65.
#earnings WYNN Z
WYNN Sold June 21, 110/155 strangle for 3.39.
Z Sold June 21, 35 straddle for 6.13. Thank you for the data Jeff.
Fading the ROKU move
I may be a bit early so I’ll have this on a short leash. Sold $ROKU 6/21 90/95 bear call spread @ 1.23.
AMZN June BuPS
Sold $AMZN 6/21 1815/1765 bull put spread @ 12.02. Delta of short strike 30. IV rank 39.
#earnings #closing GLW
January 28, sold an iron condor, was assigned short stock in Feb, sold some puts and then a long call hedge for this quarters earnings, paid a dividend, closed today somehow making 118 from after all the maneuverings.
A TRADE:
IRBT STO 5/10/19 96.0 CALLS @.85 Expires tomorrow. Added this to the short 95.0 calls
#earnings ROKU
Yesterday sold a June 21, 50/80 strangle. Today rolled the 50 put to 80 for a June 21 80 straddle. I’ve collected $1028 in premium.
TRADES:
NVTA BTO STOCK @18.47 A little, will add in small increments if opportunity is there.
IRBT STO 5/10/19 95.0 CALLS @1.11 Expires tomorrow.
Z earnings analysis
#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
May 3, 2016 AC +12.05%
Avg (+ or -) 10.22%
Bias -0.77%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.83 to 38.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 30.53 to 37.47
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 24.85 to 43.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
YELP earnings analysis
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
May 5, 2016 AC +23.71%
Avg (+ or -) 15.17%
Bias 1.63%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 39.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.04 to 44.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 33.59 to 45.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 28.65 to 50.55
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 29.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
WYNN earnings analysis
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Avg (+ or -) 6.00%
Bias -1.61%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 123.53 to 140.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 124.08 to 139.92
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 114.67 to 149.33
Based on UP max only (8.7%): 143.44
Open to requests for other symbols.
ROKU
Slow down a little would you
TNDM Closed Puts / SPX Campaign / IRBT Calls / Roll NVTA Calls
#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 5/17 65 puts at 2.60. Have been rolling since 4/7. Total credit taken in 5.15.
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 5/10 2970/2985 BECS at .25. STO 5/2 at 3.35. Thank you @jeffcp66
#shortcalls
$IRBT STO 5/10 100 call at 1.30 Thank you @honkhonk81
$NVTA BTC 5/17 25 calls and STO 5/17 22.50 calls at .25 credit (covered) as stock dropped on earnings.
STMP’d out
$STMP tanking again… oh, to have been short!
SPX expires
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX May 8th 2780/2800/2930/2950 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05.
ROKU
STO IC May 10 80/83Calls 50/47 Puts $.27
WYNN earnings
TOS is confirming tomorrow after the close. These guys are always a guessing game until last minute.
TQQQ calls
#SyntheticCoveredCalls #LongLEAPs I’m still at it, selling weekly calls against my Jan 2020 66.67 long calls. I have been underwater and ITM on them for a few weeks, but the pullback allowed me to escape. I mistakenly forgot to close some ITM calls expiring Friday, so Monday’s gap down was super fortunate and allowed me to finally get above water.
Monday: Sold $TQQQ May 17th 68.5 calls for 1.26 (and covered short stock assigned Friday)
Today: Sold TQQQ May 24th 67.5 calls for 1.23
UVXY weekly call spread
Sold $UVXY 6/7 50/60 bear call spread @ 1.25 with UVXY currently at 40.65
#earnings #closing BUD
May 6, sold June 21, 80/95 strangle for 1.44, closed today for 1.04, agree with Jeff, not taking chances.
#earnings ROKU
Sold June 21, 50/80 strangle for 3.36, TastyTrade idea, thanks to Jeff for the data
A TRADE: Post is not timely.
IRBT BTO STOCK @98.14
STMP earnings analysis
#Earnings $STMP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -57.76% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 31, 2018 AC -9.74%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.43%
May 3, 2018 AC +3.91%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC +11.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -22.59%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +35.88% Biggest UP
May 3, 2017 AC -0.40%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -1.60%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +6.63%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.22%
May 9, 2016 AC -5.32%
Avg (+ or -) 14.12%
Bias -3.15%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 84.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.94 to 96.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 72.14 to 95.86
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (57.8%): 35.48 to 132.52
Based on UP max only (35.9%): 114.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
REGN Jun
Looking for a bounce here. Sold $REGN 6/21 300 put @ 5.80. Delta 23.
EA strangle
Borrowing a Tasty Trade idea.
Sold $EA 6/21 85/110 strangle @ 2.16.
ROKU earnings analysis
#Earnings $ROKU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 6 quarters, which accounts for its full history of earnings.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +25.23%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -22.29% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +21.31%
May 9, 2018 AC -1.71%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -17.71%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +54.93% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 23.86%
Bias 9.96%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 64.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 55.66 to 73.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 49.11 to 79.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (54.9%): 29.07 to 99.93
Based on DOWN max only (-22.3%): 50.12
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings #closing EA
Yesterday sold June 21, 75/110 strangle for 1.58, bought this morning for 1.10.
BUD closed
#Earnings Sold to close $BUD May10/May17 87.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55. Bought for .44 on Monday. It will be worth more if stock price continues to go higher, but not trusting the market to help.
Downside Warning
#VIXIndicator A Downside Warning is now in effect… look for continued drop, at least in the short term.
A TRADE:
IRBT BTO STOCK @98.45
IRBT STO 98.5 5/10/19 CALLS @2.10
#shortputs IRBT
Sold June 21, 80 put for 1.27, thanks honkhonk
TRADES:
IRBT BTO STOCK @97.79
IRBT STO 5/10/19 98.0 CALLS @2.00
#earnings #closing AMD
AMD April 30 sold June 21, 27 straddle for 4.55, bought today for 3.91. I could have done better earlier, worried about a bigger drop.
SPX extra
#SPX1dte An extra bearish trade since that seems to be the new black:
Sold $SPX May 17th (weeklys) 2960/2985 call spreads for 3.15.
#earnings TRIP MPC
TRIP sold June 21, 45/65 strangle for 1.15
MPC sold June 21, 50/65 strangle for 1.31
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte — nice to have some volatility again, allowing for wider condor.
Sold $SPX May 8th 2780/2800-2930/2950 condors for 1.05, IV: 20.7%, SPX 2873.
EA earnings analysis
#Earnings $EA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -13.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -4.05%
July 26, 2018 AC -5.70%
May 8, 2018 AC +5.74%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.95%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC -4.28%
July 27, 2017 AC +0.55%
May 9, 2017 AC +12.65%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -0.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +1.64%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC +2.40%
May 10, 2016 AC +13.69% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 5.96%
Bias 1.32%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 92.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 84.80 to 100.20
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 86.99 to 98.01
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.7%): 79.84 to 105.16
Based on DOWN max only (-13.3%): 80.20
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings EA
I’m not afraid, sold June 21, 75/110 strangle for 1.58. As for WYNN, I am afraid.
FB BuPS
Sold $FB 6/21 180/170 bull put spread @ 1.71
#earnings #closing GILD
May 2, bought #doublecalendar in GILD for .37, May 10/17, sold today for .57.
TRADES: Last Friday was my…
TRADES: Last Friday was my best day of the year, Monday was my worst, be careful, risk management.
IRBT STO 4/10/17 ATM 101.0 CALLS @1.85 Covered
HIIQ STO 4/17/18 ATM 24.0 CALLS @1.90 Naked so far.
BA adding
Sold $BA 6/21 345/340 bull put spread @ 1.15
A TRADE:
IRBT BTO STOCK @ 100.50
A TRADE:
IRBT BTO STOCK A teeny bit @100.42
MMM put spread
Sold $MMM Jun 21 170/160 bull put spread @ 1.22. Delta of short strike 22.
TRADES:
YETI STO 5/10/19 30.5 CALLS @.90
YETI STO 510/19 30.5 PUTS @1.25 Straddle Risky May need adjusting.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 6th 2905/2885 put spreads for 1.85. Condors sold for .80 on low-volatility Friday.
Not a good morning to wake up to an ITM spread, but with such a large gap it seemed the move would be faded. Now it looks to have run out of steam, so not taking the chance of a collapse into the close.
#earnings BUD
Sold June 21, 80/95 strangle for 1.44, thanks Jeff
TRADES:
IRBT STO 5/10/19 105.0 CALLS @1.14
IRBT STC STOCK @100.80
