#Fuzzy . Has anyone looked at Ford for a fuzzy?
F Jan 2020
STO 9.87 PUT
BTO 4.87 PUT
BTO 9.87 CALL
Or if you BTO 11.87 CALL you can do the trade or a credit.
Is there a trade here, or am I too optimistic?
Recent Updates Page 342
TSLA
#Earnings – Still messing around with the remnants of the earnings strangle.
Current position was 310/320 strangle @ 8.05
Stock is bouncing so closing the put and rolling the call to a new strangle…
Bought to Close TSLA FEB 16 2018 310.0 Put @ .19
Rolled TSLA FEB 16 2018 320.0 Call to MAR 9 2018 315/355 Strangle @ .41 credit.
Tiny credit overall so now MAR 9th 315/355 @ 8.25
MU, XBI
#Fuzzy – STO MU Feb23’18 45 calls for 0.32.
Also STO XBI Feb23’18 95 calls for 0.40.
SPX
Closed out the Feb 23rd Trade from Tuesday that Jeff Posted…
BTO Feb 23 Long 2575 @ 13.20
STO Feb 23 Short 2625 @ 22.10
BTC Feb 23 Short 2625 puts @ 5.90
STC Feb 23 Long 2575 Puts @ 2.40
Gain 60%…..
VXX and SVXY
#VXXGame I forgot I had even sold a $VXX Feb 23rd 27 call for 6.00 on Feb 2nd. But I did and I was early assigned on Monday night, so I’m short 100 shares. I will hold that.
As for $SVXY, the only short put they’ve left me with was the Feb 16th 90 put. I guess waiting for assignment on schedule rather than early. I also have a Jan 2019 25 put which I don’t expect assignment on anytime soon.
Downside?
#VIXIndicator, well we never got the Downside Warning cancellation…. 2700 seems like a good place to pause as traders still wary after the tumult. I remain bullish for now, but we’ll see what the afternoon brings.
Sold $SPX March 15th 2500/2475 put spreads for 1.60.
#shortputs SVXY Closed Feb. 16,…
#shortputs SVXY
Closed Feb. 16, 12 put for .12, originally a Feb. 9, rolled to tomorrow, not messing around with this for $12
SPX
BTC 5 MAR 18 2470/2460 PUT @0.20 Sold @0.70 on 12 Feb 2018
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX March 9th 2300/2275 put spreads for .20. Sold on Feb 5th for 1.80. Got above 4.00 on Feb 6th…. that’s past my usual roll stop but it was just too far OTM to worry about.
STOPPED Feb 21st 2750/2775 call spreads for 3.50. Sold for 4.35 in a #CondorRoll last Thursday.
#ReverseRoll Sold Feb 23rd 2690/2665 put spreads for 5.45.
AAPL call closed
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaigns Owning stock during a face-ripping rally is great! Covered Calls, not so much.
BTC $AAPL Mar 9th 170 call for 4.90. Sold for 1.23 on Monday. Will be back to sell calls, and probably some puts, too.
$SVXY
#CoverCalls
Started to sell some calls this morning
STO Mar 9 $15 calls @ $0.30
TLT
STO Feb 23 120/121 BeCS .13
#Bitty
ITM roll
#SPXcampaign On Feb 2nd I sold an ITM put spread in anticipation of the correction ending.
Sold $SPX Feb 23rd 2825/2800 put spreads for 16.90, when SPX was at 2761.
Feb 23 was too ambitious… this was a short correction but even so, should have gone to March. But I fully expected this possibility. I rolled in two steps this time. I put in GTC orders and adjusted prices slowly.
Sold SPX March 2nd 2800/2775 put spreads for 23.80. This filled yesterday during the morning gap down.
Closed Feb 23rd 2825/2800 put spreads for 24.00. This filled early this morning in pre-market.
So I was able to move the spread 25 points lower for only a .20 debit.
Since I paid only 1.00 less than the 25.00 cost to let the Feb 23 spread expire fully ITM, it was also possible to leave it in case we actually rally above 2800 by next Friday. I doubt that will happen, but it could!
SPY
Rolled Feb 16 274 Calls to Feb 23 276.5 .24 Cr #Hedge
So what did the VIX…
So what did the VIX close at yesterday? Can’t tell if i’m seeing yesterday’s close or pre-hours. If it’s the close, did the downside get cancelled yesterday?
SHOP whew
#Earnings #ShortStrangles Lucky we got a pullback on earnings… the steady tick higher had me sweating the 149 calls, but they and the 117 puts look much better now.
Good Morning
Good Morning
UVXY It would have been…
UVXY
It would have been a nice trade to buy UVXY puts yesterday.
Or even a put spread. UVXY is down $4.80
Feb 14 #Fuzzy Land Hi…
Feb 14 #Fuzzy Land
Hi Everyone! I’m starting to take some new Fuzzy nibbles. I’m still not seeing the indicator that I want for a full blown rally, so I’m being very cautious with size. I’m still making the bulk of my daily money with NQ scalping right now.
Open positions:
AAPL Fuzzy bear (apr 165/165/170) only a teensy 2-lot. Closed hedge today
DIA regular fuzzy: Mar 274/274/245 @ 3.87 w/ 251 hedge, 15 contracts in 2 accounts
FB Fuzzy bear (apr 175/175/180 @ 6.16, removed hedge today, 5 contracts
IWM Regular Fuzzy (Mar 151/151/149) hedged w/ 151 (ITM)
MU Regular Fuzzy (Apr 42/42/40) w/ 43.5 hedge (close to ITM)
SPY #AtomicFuzzy (Mar 269/269/267 x10, 271/275 x20) did you catch this?
TBT Regular Fuzzy (Apr 39/39/37) unhedged
Who caught the Atomic Fuzzy? Don Kaufman at Theo Trade has an “Atomic Hedge” trade, where OTM puts are bought at a certain expiration, and using the same expiration a 2x OTM call spread is sold to cover the cost of the puts, all against a long underlying position. The trade hedges pretty well, while still offering long delta for continued move up. Of course after reading about it, my first thought was “Fuzzify it!” So by doing the same thing with a Fuzzy, the max loss is cut in half or more. I put my first one on today and I liked the movement it saw in the rally. What it does is build in the hedge up front, so you can set it and forget managing hedges.
Here’s my specfic trade on SPY:
1. Synthetic: Mar 269/269 for .51 cr x 10
2. Protective puts: Mar 267 for 4.33 x10
3. Atomic element: Mar 271/275 call credit spread 1.63 cr x 20
Regular Fuzzy max loss: $5451
Atomic Fuzzy max loss: $2560
It does suck away about 100 delta so it moves more slowly than a regular unhedged fuzzy. Also it needs to be managed early to avoid the upside “sea of death”. But it moved well in today’s rally and is designed for holding just a week or two with this DTE, or can be designed with a much longer DTE.
I’m a tester/tweaker on everything, this is the first test….so I’m happy to keep reporting on these as a few more test cases are created. Hey…it sure is nice to see the cost of fuzzies coming DOWN!! 🙂
Sue
VXX moves
#VXXGame Added to existing long put positions:
Bought $VXX June 25 puts for .70
Bought $VXX Jan 2019 20 puts for 1.70
Bought $VXX June 30 put for 1.95
Also, sold $UVXY Jan long 75 put for 3.40. Purchased for 1.59 in January as a pre-hedge against short calls sold in February.
FB covered call
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $FB Mar 9th 187.5 call for 1.45.
I now have this campaign going for FB, $AAPL, and $BABA. I also have $VRTX but I plan to sell that stock once it gets to 170.00 area.
SVXY additional thoughts
So without being back in contango SVXY is now up 1.2% on the day. I have been looking at percentages and found some info that the reason it dropped so hard was because of the difference in the short vs. long term VIX nunbers. Had long term vol. been higher, the drop would not have been as severe. It appears that you have to watch the potential spread and the wider it gets, the more damage a volatility spike will cause.
Since vol had been so low, the difference caused by the spike was more severe.
Anyway, I certainly won’t trade it unhedged again but I think it is a useful tool for income and trading.
Also, at these suppressed levels the option premium is not there to justify selling cc yet, at least for me. We start getting some decent premiums I will start selling weeklies against it but need at least 0.40 a few strikes OTM before I would call that decent. Had you sold the ATM you would already be rolling.
Once back in contango (vix below 17 should trigger), the drag from rolling the options should start to have a good benefit. Historically about 1-2% every 2 weeks in looking at the contango history.
Do we zoom back to 140, probably not. But if we can stay in contango for a while, we could be sitting at the 30-40 level again in 6 months. That would be enough of a recovery for me to close everything out and move the earned back cash to other vehicles.
I think the best way to trade this would be #fuzzies after a vol spike. Controlled risk, no cap on upside if you do not sell calls against it.
I know a lot of us were burned on this and I can feel your pain, 2 IRA accounts almost completely wiped out, but I think if we are patient, hedge gradually on the way up (buy puts in case it goes to zero), we can get back most of what we lost in about 6-12 months. Of course any additional vol. spikes will slow that down. Be patient but hedge.
Just thinking out lot. Anyone else have anything to add please comment……….
#earnings SHOP A sign of…
#earnings SHOP
A sign of the times “Shopify Shares Continue To Rally, Now Up ~7% Wednesday And 13.5% For The Week, As Traders Circulate A CBC Article From Feb. 12th Highlighting A Deal Between The Ontario Govt. And Shopify To Run Online Cannabis Sales”
#earnings #shortputspread AAPL Way back…
#earnings #shortputspread AAPL
Way back in what seems like another time, January 25 and 26, I sold put spreads 155/160 and 162.50/165 ahead of earnings and out to Feb. 16. I closed them today after 3 strong moves, made a little, didn’t lose any.
SPX
BTC SPX Mar18 2550 Short Puts @ 16.00, Previously Sold at 40.80 on Feb 12
Gain of 61%
STO SPX Mar18 2550 short puts @16.00 at the bottom of the move down at 1:30cst..
sold against my existing Long side that I kept ….will see if I can get another 60% on the same put..
BTC Mar 23 2600 short puts at 24.80, sold monday at the turn, at 57.00
Gain , nearly 60%…
STO Mar 23 2600 short puts, at 23.75, against my long side existing…
SPY Rolled #Hedge Feb 14…
SPY Rolled #Hedge Feb 14 274 to Feb 16 274 .13
BMY STC #Fuzzy 60/60/58 Mar…
AAPL
BMY
#Fuzzy – BTC BMY Feb16’18 63 calls for 1.66 sold for 0.53, STC BMY Mar23’18 60/60/58 Fuzzy for 5.09, bought for 2.09. Hope this one pulls back some and I will do it again maybe. After all is said and done made 1.96 on 10 contracts.
TBT
Are we getting close to a #SyntheticShortStock position?
TLT
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Lots going on in my TLT position…LOL Been carrying some of these short calls for a long time…(added a few recently too) Rolled DITM puts out to 2020 and way down. I’ll be selling the call side against those for awhile (cautiously!) Also synthetic short and long puts shorter term.
Bought to Close TLT FEB 16 2018 120.5 Calls @ .03 (sold for .49)
Bought to Close TLT FEB 16 2018 121.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for 2.20)
Combined all of those into one big new sale…
Sold TLT MAR 2 2018 120.0 Calls @ .44
MU
#Fuzzy – BTO MU Mar16’18 44/44/42 Fuzzy for 0.75. Leaving unhedged for now. MU reports earnings on 03/22/18.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 9th 2200/2175 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.90 on Feb 6th when it was 440 points OTM.
SHOP earnings
#Earnings Classic earnings strangle just outside historic moves.
Sold $SHOP Feb 16th 117/149 #ShortStrangles for 1.85. Biggest UP move: 11.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.0%, Average move: 7.2%. My strikes are +/- 12% OTM
XBI
#Fuzzy – BTC XBI Feb16’18 93 calls for 0.38, sold for 0.42. Leaving my core XBI Jun’18 91/91/88 Fuzzy unhedged for now. Trying to get out of the way of the stock moving up. Coulda closed for about 0.08 earlier today. Poof there went the Valentines dinner and spa treatment, got reduced to a box of chocolates! Hope I didn’t mess up but looking like the market may go up for a bit with decent earnings coming in and the Fed meeting over a month away.
SPX
#RocketManHedge – Leaving plenty of downside protection while still collecting enough premium to cover the cost of the hedge…
Bought to Close SPX FEB 20 2018 2540.0 Put @ 1.85 (sold for 14.10)
Sold SPX FEB 23 2018 2575.0 Put @ 7.25
VIX is telling the story this morning
The Downside Warning is not officially over until VIX closes below 17.76. But the drop its having this morning, even when the market gapped down, tells me the market is going higher. This morning’s futures drop was a chance for bears to retake control but looking like they barely had a chance.
SPX lottery ticket longer
#SPXcampaign On this dip I doubled my size on $SPX March 16th 2840/2860 long call spread for .80.
We just went from up…
We just went from up 13 in the futures to down 30.
Awesome background Jeff
Awesome background Jeff
Euro Market
US futs are screaming higher…. currently up 10 pts as the recovery continues……Across the pond (that would be the Atlantic Ocean) German and Eurozone CPI figures were in line. Euro mkts are all higher by 0.75% or so…. It’s all good…
Good Morning all
Good Morning all
CMG up after hours
On news they hired Taco Bell CEO
#earningstrade #ironcondor BIDU #spec trade…
#earningstrade #ironcondor BIDU #spec trade #longcalls ZN
Sold March 16 180/190/260/270 for 1.17 BIDU is at 225
ZN bought a March 16, 5 call for .40, Zion Oil and Gas is up 76% to 4.07 today, interesting story, friend at the gym told me about it, not exactly the check out person at the grocery store…
Adding a REGN ladder rung
Sold $REGN Aug 17 240 put @ 5.70 (delta 11).
My ladder is now:
Apr 300 put
May 280 put
Aug 240 put
#pietrade STO AAL 10 DTE…
STO AAL 10 DTE 52 Calls at 0.54 against 200 shares of stock. Cost basis around 49.75.
SPX
STO Feb 23 2575/2625
Bought Long 2575 at -13.2
Sold Short 2625 at 22.10
Credit of 8.90
Thanks Jeff…
SPX reverse roll
#SPXcampaign Earlier, closed Feb 23rd 2690/2715 call spreads for 7.00. Sold for 4.05 on Friday.
#ReverseRoll Just now, sold March 2nd 2625/2600 put spreads for 5.75
AVGO Covered Call
#shortcalls
$AVGO STO 2/16 247.50 call at 1.30 Leftover assignment from strangle. Called away would be a success.
Short Calls EXAS / Close Early PAYC BUPS
#shortcalls
$EXAS STO 2/23 49.50 call @ 1.70 (Covered)
#shortputs
$PAYC BTC 2/16 75/85 BUPS @ .40 78% of profit taken in. Not sure I will wait for expiration anytime soon on any of my trades.
#pietrades Rolled GM 42.5 put…
Rolled GM 42.5 put that expires this week out 2 weeks for 0.43 credit. CB now under 40.
XBI STO 10 DTE 85 put for 0.77. Went through fast at mid point, may be able to get more if you work the order.
SVXY decision. With the futures expiring today, my hope is that as they expire we may see a pop. However I do not expect steady gains until we are no longer backwards which may take a few weeks and probably not until the VIX is under 18. Anyway, I am holding the stock until then. Once we have some gains I will make sure it is hedged in the future, probably by setting up a #fuzzy ratio but do not want to spend extra money on this trade until it recovers even a little.
The VXX trades below look smart. I would do it if had capital left. The hedge fund book I am reading, Mark Sebastain does that every 2 weeks. Buys puts on VXX or a debit spread and rolls it to the next 2 weeks when there is a 50% profit. May be a smarter way to play #vxxgame in the future. Losses are capped but probably steady gains. The flip slide would be selling ATM call credit spreads.
I will NEVER be short VIX, SVXY unhedged in the future, lesson learned the hard way again. I think a hammer the head would have been easier.
Thanks everyone for the help/thoughts on VXX/SVXY over the last few weeks. I think going forward we are all much smarter about how to use these instruments and more importantly how not to use them. But collectively I think we will all make back most of the losses within 1-5 years (that seems like a long time at the moment) but will go by faster than any of us can imagine!
AAOI
#SyntheticStock – Repair trade still running. What a dog. Earnings next week and I’m not sure if I want it to go up or down. Actually make a decent profit with it at zero with my put protection. 🙂
Bought to Close AAOI FEB 16 2018 33.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .55)
Sold AAOI FEB 23 2018 33.0 Calls @ 1.10
VXX long puts added
#VXXGame Bought $VXX Jan 2019 20 puts for 1.75. Added to my position started in September at the average price of the position. I put in this order last week when things were crazy and it just filled now.
VXX
#BearPutSpreads – I’ll take a shot. Only 25 cents per week in sales to cover it. That’s almost 10 dollars out of the money to sell those now (for next week) I’m waiting a couple days for my initial sale though.
Bought to Open VXX JAN 18 2019 50.0/30.0 Bear Put Spreads @ 12.14
EDIT….just a heads up here. You’ll be margined for any weekly put sale that’s above the long side of the spread since the computer thinks it’s capping the potential gains.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX March 15th (monthlys) 2400/2375 put spreads for 1.60.
LUV
#SyntheticStock – Another weekly in the books…
Bought to Close LUV FEB 16 2018 60.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.00)
Sold LUV FEB 23 2018 58.0 Calls @ .60
HSIC #FallingKnife Sold $HSIC Jul…
HSIC #FallingKnife
Sold $HSIC Jul 20 50 put @ 1.25
Good Morning
Good Morning
Good morning
More assignments today. Almost finished except for January 2019 put sales.
Expiration
From Friday
$EXAS 50 call (covered)
Today
$SPX 2525/2550 BUPs Thank you @jeffcp66
Time to short the VIX?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4145659-time-short-vix?auth_param=bf3bv:1d83egb:9d077ee3a9d04c2fe782d0a4c6d608d5&uprof=37&utoken=5b32faa14fc320dfd5f3f44880808118
Closing Feb EXAS
With the stock now back above the strike (after spending a good part of the last couple of trading delays below it), I decided to close this position for 75-80% of the max and not risk another dip before the end of the week.
Bought to close $EXAS Feb 16 45 puts @ .40. Sold for 1.85 on 1/17.
Taking off some DUST
Bought to close $DUST Mar 16 45 calls @ .15. Sold for 1.20 on 12/7. Reducing some exposure.
REGN
#SyntheticStock – Trying to get out of the way of this thing just in case…
Rolled REGN FEB 16 2018 337.5 Calls to MAR 16 2018 350.0 Calls @ .16 credit
SPY STO Feb 14 274…
SPY STO Feb 14 274 Call @ .18 #Hedge
AAPL
Rolled Feb 16 167.5 Call to Feb 23 @ .63 #Hedge Roll
Reverse Roll
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Feb 16th 2650/2675 call spreads for 13.80. Sold on Friday for 6.20.
#ReverseRoll Sold $SPX Feb 21st 2700/2675 put spreads for 14.00.
Higher
#Market #SPXcampaign This recent click higher and corresponding dip in the VIX signals to me this market is going up. Still not close to confirmation on the VIXIndicator but I’m going to start reversing some positions in SPX.
#pietrade 2 additional tickers to…
2 additional tickers to add, MRK and PFE. Stable blue chips but with the vol spike they qualify for the 1% per week return on puts/calls 1-2 strikes OTM.
I am sure there are a lot more at the moment but don’t have time to trade until Thurs. unless I figure out what I want to do with all my SVXY shares now. I caught up on the conversations below, maybe better to just take the loss and move on as opposed to hold and potentially see it go to zero/0.
BABA Fuzzy
STO February 23 190 calls @.52, trying to buy February 210 calls for .01 which were sold @ .90
Covered @ .01
CMG adding to Sep
On Feb 8 I sold a 200 put in Sep for 5.60. Just added to Sep at a lower strike.
Sold $CMG Sep 21 180 put @ 5.10. Delta 11.
SPX Trades
STO Mar18 2450/2550 BUPS @ 14.00 credit near the 9:20am time frame
STO Mar 23 2500/2600 BUPS @ 21.00 Credit Near the 10:00am time frame
#pietrades #shortputs AMAT Rolled Feb….
#pietrades #shortputs AMAT
Rolled Feb. 16, 57.50 put to March 16, 57.50 for .40, 4th roll cost basis of 290, AMAT hovering around 49
UVXY
#ShortCalls – Not the perfect time but wanted to wait for some of the violence to calm down. Margin free against some 2020 5 strike puts leftover from a synthetic short. I’ll use these profits to peel some of those off.
Sold UVXY APR 20 2018 59.0 Call @ 2.81
AMZN
#SyntheticStock – Yes…the SVXY situation sucks but there is a silver lining. The higher volatility across the board is nice for selling/rolling. For the last year when rolling these ITM weekly sales up on AMZN I’ve had to pay about a 2 dollar debit for a one month 10 point roll up. Not any more! While IV is high I’m rolling this one a little earlier than normal picking up another 23.30 of upside.
Rolled AMZN MAR 16 2018 1220.0 Call to APR 20 2018 1240.0 Call @ 3.30 credit.
20 point roll up for a 3.30 credit? Unheard of in the last year…
Options Bistro 