#VIXindicator Looking back at all 54 Downside Warnings gives us some data to view our current correction. Below are three charts with the Average Move down on each day of the correction. (I omitted the black swan 2008 financial crisis).

Day 1 is the day the Downside Warning fired (at the close). The percentages are how far the LOW of the day on $SPX has moved, as measured from the CLOSE of the day before the warning. So in the current correction (in color), which fired on Oct 5, the day 1 move of -1.1% is the low on Oct 5th, measured from the close on Oct 4th. Day 2 is the low on Monday the 8th, and so on.

The first chart includes all 54 corrections. The first three days include all 54, but the 4th day is an average of 53 corrections, since one was only three days long and drops off the list. This only goes to 23 days… the longest correction lasted 165 days. The data here says we are above average so far.

Considering the current correction is now 8 days long, I created the second chart, which looks at only those corrections that lasted between 9 and 19 days. The data here says we are above average for short corrections, so this one may end up being a little longer.

And the third chart is those corrections that were in the 4-8% range on days 4-7, just like our current one. This data suggests we may stay in the current range (down 5% or so) for several days to come).

Or it all may mean nothing! But it’s fun to geek out occasionally.

#VIXindicator An additional triple warning at the close, following through on Friday’s first warning.

#VIXindicator A downside warning is enacted today, since we closed at over 25% of Wednesday’s close (2-day closing low).

This new Warning resets VIX levels. The Warning would be canceled with a new SPX high above 2,940.91, or a close of the VIX of 12.44 or lower, with three consecutive closes leading to an Upside Warning.

#VIXIndicator… new highs today, 15.19 highest since Sep 10th. If we close the day above 14.51, it will be a new Downside Warning. This just one day after the lowest close since August 9th.

#VIXIndicator The close bumped us up to 11.68, so still no start of the countdown to an Upside Warning.

#VIXIndicator We spent the morning in Upside Warning territory, but despite a steadily rising SPX all day, the VIX also rose steadily then ended up closing higher on the day.

#VIXIndicator. 2018 is the year of the rollercoaster. Today’s close triggered anther warning for potential drops in the market.

#VIXIndicator The $VIX avoided an Upside Warning again… clock restarts, we need three consecutive closes below 11.20 (11.19 or lower).

#VIXIndicator …one to go. A $VIX close below 11.20 tomorrow will mean an Upside Warning, indicating a high chance of a rally to new all-time highs on the $SPX. The third day is where we failed in both late February and late May, and then new Downside Warnings hit on the fourth days.

#VIXIndicator Third time’s a charm for an Upside Warning? Two more closes below 11.20 and we’re golden.

#VIXIndicator Monday’s close on the VIX was the lowest since January 23rd, before this whole mess started. And we’re rallying in pre-market, with VIX hitting a low of 10.90, which is the lowest low since Jan 24th.

#VIXIndicator Lowest intra-day VIX level since 6/15 (excluding pre-market spikes).

#VIXIndicator We got a third warning at the close Wednesday, the second time this week. The low on this round was put it on the day of the first warning, May 29, at 2676. Since then we stayed above 2700 until this week. We could test that low today, and if we go through, the lows for the year are down at 2532. Long way to go from here, so watch to see if we can keep above 2676.

Anyone else looking at technical levels for support?

#VIXIndicator has passed an intraday warning level for the first time since the most recent Warning fired on May 29th. Any close above 17.21 will be another warning… which could also be a capitulation low… hard to tell with these secondary warnings. So far the LOD is the lowest point on the S&P since May 31st.

#VIXIndicator… for perspective, when this happened on Feb 28th (another warning firing a few days after the previous one had been canceled), the SPX closed at 2713. We hit the low of 2553 on April 2nd, so a full month later. During that month, we also reached a high of 2801.

#VIXIndicator In pre-market we have a signal on the VIXIndicator which indicates to be wary of new downside risk, this time due to Italy’s political crisis causing a big drop in the Euro. Whether we get a new Downside Warning will depend on the VIX closing price.

#VIXIndicator Looking less likely we’ll get an Upside Warning today, but in any case here’s an updated version of the chart I posted months ago. The blue bars with numbers on top represent the percentage move UP from the close of an Upside Warning day to the eventual SPX high before another pullback. The numbers at the bottom of each bar are the percentage move DOWN from the preceding correction, and the date of the Upside Warning. Please ask any questions you have! (you can click on the chart to see it full screen)

#VIXIndicator Another somewhat volatile day capped with a plunging VIX. That’s two consecutive days below the Fib 78.6% line… if it happens again tomorrow we shall be entering next week with an Upside Warning.

#VIXIndicator I did a double-take when I looked at my screen. Wouldn’t have thought a day opening as negative as we did would finally get us across the threshold, but looks like the official close on VIX is 12.58. That’s the first close this low since January 26th.

If we close below 12.61 for two more consecutive days… tomorrow and Friday, that will be an Upside Warning.

#VIXIndicator Official close for the VIX (and LOD) was 12.65… .04 shy of canceling the warning. Not an exact science, so things looking strong for next week.

#VIXIndicator As I discussed last month, we are in a “double-header” downside warning which is rare. Rarer still is when the second warning does not print a higher VIX high or a lower SPX low. This makes it less clear when we get an Upside Warning. If we measure from the first warning’s spike, we will get the Upside with a close below 17.76 today (which is likely). If we go with the second warning, we have to wait for three closes below 12.61.

I suspect by the time we drop to 12.61, a sustained rally will already be underway. Because of last month’s head-fake, with three closes below 17.76 leading us right into more volatility, I remain cautiously optimistic for new market highs.

#VIXIndicator We exceeded 25% above Thursday’s close which is an additional signal. Secondary signals/warnings like this can sometimes signal a bottom, but it’s impossible to be sure. For those keeping track on this double-header correction:

1/16: First signal of trouble ahead/cancel Upside Warning
1/26: SPX high
1/29: Downside WARNING
1/30: 2nd warning
2/2: 3rd warning
2/5: six warnings in one day (a record)
2/9: SPX low
2/23: downside warning canceled
2/28: New downside WARNING
3/22: 2nd and 3rd warnings
Today: SPX lowest since 2/9

#VIXIndicator Just a heads up that closes like this on a Friday don’t make for great Mondays. This will make 2 uglies in a row after yesterday… similar to that fateful weekend in August 2015.

#VIXIndicator — we just crossed an intraday signal above 22.25 on the $VIX. A close above this level will mean a Downside Warning.

#VIXIndicator we have gone above the trigger of 19.75. If we close above it, it will be a new assertion of the Downside Warning.

#VIXIndicator I don’t know about you, but after what we’ve been through since January, these two little up days on the VIX look like child’s play. I’m sure questioning this “Upside Warning,” but not sensing a lot of fear, despite two weak days.

#VIXIndicator After reviewing the data over the weekend, I’ve made an official tweak to the Indicator, which means that the downside warning would have been canceled last Wednesday, and the Upside Warning is now in effect from Friday’s close. This morning’s bullish action was the final element I needed to confirm this change.

#VIXIndicator. Based on this week’s action I’m going to cancel the Downside Warning. I believe we may also have entered an Upside Warning and I started trading it that way today. This is only a small tweak in the VIX Indicator, since this particular circumstance has only happened once before this week.

#VIXIndicator This is pretty tough to explain, but I’ll try anyway…

We are currently in a Downside Warning, but this particular pattern has only happened once before, at least since 1/1/2000, where my tracking begins. The warning was canceled on 2/23, and then, before an Upside Warning fired, it was reinstated on 2/28. When THAT has happened before, the SPX made a new low in all occurrences but 2. In those 2 times, only one time, in 2006, did the second downside correction have a lower 78.6% line.

This time, we did NOT make a new low, and the 78.6% line is down at 12.61. It was at 17.76 from the first warning, so quite a lot lower now. Provided we close decently today, it would be three closes at or below 17.76, which would be an Upside Warning from the FIRST downside warning. In the 2006 occurrence, this did turn out to be an effective Upside Warning, because SPX took off and did not wait for the official upside warning.

If you’re lost, no worries. Here’s all you need to know: There’s not enough precedent to call it one way or the other, but a close today below 17.76 COULD signal a rally back toward all-time highs.

#VIXIndicator Below is some data on the previous times this has happened. There was actually once a triple-header, which I missed yesterday. The columns to look at are:

Column D: the number of days between the cancelation and a new Downside Warning. The one we just experienced was only 3 days.

Column N (and Q): this is how much lower we went below the first Warning’s lows. As you can see, all but two occurrences we went lower than the first warning.

Let me know if you have questions!

#VIXIndicator Since 2000, what happened today has happened 8 times previously: a Downside Warning going into effect after it had been canceled, with no Upside Warning in between. On half of those occasions, the subsequent drop in the SPX was lower than the first warning, and in the other half, it was roughly the same. So in other words, every occurrence resulted in at least a test of the lows, and half of those times we went significantly lower.

#VIXIndicator A rare occurrence so soon after a cancelation.

#VIXIndicator The clock resets. We need three consecutive closes below 17.76, so Friday is the earliest this may happen. A close above 19.75 tomorrow will mean the Downside Warning is reinstated.

#VIXIndicator This is the first day we closed below the VIX Fib 78.6% line. Two more consecutive days will mean an Upside Warning.

#VIXIndicator, well we never got the Downside Warning cancellation…. 2700 seems like a good place to pause as traders still wary after the tumult. I remain bullish for now, but we’ll see what the afternoon brings.

Sold $SPX March 15th 2500/2475 put spreads for 1.60.

#VIXIndicator fired an additional SIX warnings today, which is a record for a single day as far back as 2000 (which is the extent to which I’ve measured).

It was the highest level the $VIX has reached since August 2015, and the highest close since October 2011.

Although it was the biggest ever single-day point drop on the DOW, it was only the 33rd biggest percentage drop.

A VIX close below 15.30 would signal the Warning is over (that number will change if we get a new VIX high). But the bottom will occur several days before that signal; the indicator is working well but it can’t pick a bottom!

#VIXIndicator We got another warning signal today, as VIX closed over 25% above yesterday’s close. The indices ended the day at lows… Monday could be either a big gap down, which may signal the end of the correction, or a bounce, which probably means it should be faded. Either way, I am net short in SPX spreads.

#VIXIndicator A close above 13.35 would trigger one. Looking to close some put spreads to take some risk off.

#VIXIndicator The VIX just exceeded 25% above the 2-day closing low, so that cancels the Upside Warning. Under my revised rules, we do not get a downside warning unless we close above 12.35.

In recent months these spikes intraday have been bought. I have no reason to feel this would be different, provided we get the normal afternoon bounce. It was a beautiful morning as I had 3 put spreads close for pennies. If we find a low and bounce, I will be looking for more positions to get long the market.

#VIXIndicator CBOE is showing closing VIX price of 9.90. Upside Warning denied third time in a row!

#VIXIndicator, like last week, we got two consecutive closes below the 78.6% line, but then are denied the third. So no Upside Warning. Maybe this market wants to top out.

#VIXIndicator Despite hitting a new all-time high today, the VIX spiked at day’s end, ending on the highs. This means no Upside Warning yet. We’ll need three more consecutive days below 9.85. Unless we see a market drop tomorrow, signs are still bullish for year end.

#VIXIndicator Based on the indicator, the upside warning just got canceled by the Flynn spike. However, two things to note: the VIX low from last Friday seemed to be an odd tick, but that low is the reason the Indicator cancels the warning. Second, this volatility could be only violent spiking due to the sudden breaking news. A better determination can be made in a couple hours.

#VIXIndicator Checking in on the progress of this upside warning, referencing my post from the weekend:

https://optionsbistro.com/2017/11/25/upside-warning-in-effect-2/

The predicted HOD’s, based on the average of all highs from past Upside Warnings, measuring from the close on the warnings day (which in the current case was Friday, 11/24):

Mon, Nov 27 Predicted: 0.44% 2,613.87 Actual: +0.15% 2,606.41
Tue, Nov 28 Predicted: 0.46% 2,614.42 Actual: +0.73% 2621.31 (thus far)

So we fell short yesterday, but have gone over today. Of the 4 occurrences this happened before (mild rally first day of Warning, strong rally on second), the averages are:
Day 1 +0.78%
Day 2 +1.43%
Day 3 +1.76%
Day 4 +2.15%
…and then levels off for a few days. Not enough data to make conclusions there, but fun to look at anyway.

#VIXIndicator. Once again, the dip was quickly bought and a new Upside Warning went into effect on Friday. The VIX also notched an all-time low; if the CBOE does not correct it as a glitch. The VIX was wavering around 9.60 on Friday at the closing bell, and then briefly dipped down to tag 8.56, which is it’s lowest reading ever. It quickly jumped back to close at 9.67. So it may have been a bad tick, but if not corrected it is the new record low.

An Upside Warning is a reliable signal of a rally higher. Since Jan 1, 2000 (HOD=high of day)
31 upside warnings
25 times the HOD on 5th day was above the close of the Warning day
21 times the HOD on the 10th day was above the close of the Warning day
21 times the HOD was over 1% higher on any day within the first 10 days after the Warning
18 times the HOD was over 2% higher on any day within the first 20 days after the Warning

Looking at the highs of the day from all 31 occurrences, here are the expected moves UP from the close on Friday (2602.42).

Mon, Nov 27 0.44% 2,613.87
Tue, Nov 28 0.46% 2,614.42
Wed, Nov 29 0.48% 2,614.85
Thu, Nov 30 0.46% 2,614.29
Fri, Dec 1 0.59% 2,617.71
Sat, Dec 2 0.56% 2,616.98
Sun, Dec 3 0.77% 2,622.40
Mon, Dec 4 0.92% 2,626.44
Tue, Dec 5 0.89% 2,625.65
Wed, Dec 6 1.02% 2,628.99

These are averages, so the actual move will tend to be sharper or more gradual.

#VIXIndicator

#VIXIndicator The Upside warning that started on Sept 22nd was finally canceled at the open today, as the VIX is now over 50% higher than its low on Nov 3rd. This constitutes a signal for the downside. A full downside warning will happen if we reach 14.38 today.

#VIXindicator The VIX is trending up again. Closes at or beyond the upper or lower Bollinger bands often signal a reversal is imminent. On the last uptrend in late October we closed 4 days at or just outside the upper BB, then reversed. On the current uptrend, we haven’t closed that high yet, which suggests the VIX uptrend may continue, meaning more volatility in the coming week.

#VIXIndicator The VIX is closing in on another validation of the Upside Warning. If it closes below 9.98 today and Monday, that will be three in a row below the 78.6% Fib retracement of the last spike, which historically is less compelling than an original Upside Warning but still a decent indicator of more upside, or at least further delay before a correction.

#VIXIndicator… the Upside Warning never got canceled during this week’s volatility, and it’s coming through again now. A VIX close below 9.98 would be a new confirmation of the Up warning (as if we can’t just look at another all-time high to know that already).

The VIX adds another candle to the uptrend. (Click “Home/REFRESH” above to update the #VIXIndicator and other right-hand-column features)

EDIT: I added the SPX for comparison (purple line)

#VIXIndicator The VIX is trending up and having its biggest swings since the Upside Warning on 9/22.

#VIXIndicator We are heading into an upside warning with a third consecutive close below 9.96. This signal rarely is false.; while recent Downside warnings have often been head fakes, the Upsides have been good for at least a small rally before stopping, which in this case would mean 10-30 points higher on SPX next week. Hard to believe that will happen with the recent range-bound, dull movement. And weekend news could derail it as well.

#VIXIndicator Well with a close finally below the 78.6% line, the Downside warning that started on Sept 5th is finally canceled. In the “correctionless” last 20 months, the Indicator has become more lagging than ever, so not sure what to make of it.