Effective Upside warning possible

#VIXIndicator As I discussed last month, we are in a “double-header” downside warning which is rare. Rarer still is when the second warning does not print a higher VIX high or a lower SPX low. This makes it less clear when we get an Upside Warning. If we measure from the first warning’s spike, we will get the Upside with a close below 17.76 today (which is likely). If we go with the second warning, we have to wait for three closes below 12.61.

I suspect by the time we drop to 12.61, a sustained rally will already be underway. Because of last month’s head-fake, with three closes below 17.76 leading us right into more volatility, I remain cautiously optimistic for new market highs.