I just received a 1 year Happy Anniversary from WordPress. Many thanks again to Jeff for this great site, and also to those of you for sharing your expertise here.
Monthly Archives: November 2016
Pssst…about 20 minutes to market…
Pssst…about 20 minutes to market close! Early day today gives you time to prepare for Cyber Monday…
No expirations this week.
Have a great weekend.
SPX Trade
STO 2 Dec 23 2040/2140 BUPS at 6.06 ( credit of 1212.00 )
#spxcampaign #rolling Rolled Dec. 2,…
Rolled Dec. 2, 2220/2245 to Dec. 5 2220/2240 for a .90 credit.
#spxcampaign Fingertips not strong enough…
#spxcampaign
Fingertips not strong enough to hold on.
$SPX 11/25 2235/2210 BECS BTC @ .75 for 42% profit
REGN fat-fingered roll
#Earnings #ShortPuts #Rolling Was trying to make this roll with a $1 credit but turkey-induced droopiness led to the reverse, a 1.10 loss. Oh well… not much in the scheme of inverse strangles…
BTC REGN Nov 25th 420 put for 22.00
STO REGN Dec 9th 415 put for 20.90
SPX Trade
#spxcampaign
As we bump the 2210( 61% fib Ext ) I took my Dec16 Spread profit….
BTC 2 Dec16 2080 short puts at 2.50, sold on 17-Nov at 6.20
A view from the top..
From a trusted Pro I chart and trade with:
This type of move never lasts forever. Meaning, it would be no surprise to see the markets reverse themselves as soon as Monday. However, I don’t think any potential reversal is going to last all that long. More importantly, if we do get a bit of a pullback, it may simply end up offering us some better entry points into certain bullish ideas.
SPX calls closed, both short and long
#SPXcampaign We are up only .25% on the day, and pushing higher. I don’t want my short 2210’s to fly up in price. So…
Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 2210 calls for .85. Sold as the 2210/2235 call spreads for 1.50 on Oct 28th.
To offset the loss, I am closing my long Dec 5th call spread I bought for 1.90 on Monday. Closed some for 2.95, watching the rest for the next push up. I would keep this longer, but since it expires a week from Monday and is still fairly far OTM, I’m exiting now as a pullback could be coming next week.
Sold to close $SPX Dec 5th 2230/2250 LONG call spreads for 2.95.
I remain bullish into Xmas, but believe a pullback could be in the cards before another push higher. After Xmas, I will be on guard for January volatility, since we have seen that happen in the last THREE Januarys (2014,2015,2016).
$NUGT #ShortPuts #RollOut – Bought…
$NUGT #ShortPuts #RollOut – Bought to close NUGT NOV 25 2016 8.5 Puts / Sold NUGT DEC 16 2016 7.5 Puts @ 0.21 Credit
$AMGN #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Bought…
$AMGN #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Bought to close AMGN DEC 2 2016 125.0 Puts @ 0.01. They won’t trade any lower.
$NUGT #ShortPuts #RollOut – Bought…
$NUGT #ShortPuts #RollOut – Bought to close NUGT NOV 25 2016 9.0 Puts / Sold NUGT DEC 23 2016 8.0 Puts @ 0.15 Credit
$SVXY #ShortCalls #Rollup – Bought…
$SVXY #ShortCalls #Rollup – Bought to close SVXY Nov 25 2016 80.0 Calls / Sold SVXY Dec 23 2016 85.0 Calls for a 0.20 Credit. Bumped the strike price up 5 points to an out of the money strike.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2275/2300 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2209.
$CF #CoveredCalls #Rollup – Bought…
$CF #CoveredCalls #Rollup – Bought to close CF Nov 25 2016 28.0 Calls @ 0.45 / Sold CF Dec 16 2016 30.0 Calls @ 0.58 with the stock at 28.44.
Earned all the time premium on today’s call and made money on the trade while jumping the strike price on a strong stock by 2 points plus a 0.13 Credit.
#spxcampaign STO Dec 12 SPX…
#spxcampaign STO Dec 12 SPX 2145/2120 at $1.80 when the SPX was at 2107.77
Fear or Greed?
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving Day…
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving Day today.
#Enjoy All have a blessed…
#Enjoy
All have a blessed Thanksgiving. That is what it is all about.
@Jeff Love the wallpaper.
Woodstock and an upside warning in the same panel – brilliant!
Trade Break…
# off topic
I hope everyone has a nice thanks giving tomorrow.
#Holidayweekend #IWM Enjoy the day…
#Holidayweekend
IWM
Enjoy the day off tomorrow. There is a Wikileaks rumor that RUT will go down on Friday-source is unconfirmed.
I bought a Dec. 9 135/133 BePS for .99.
AMZN
Using this pullback as an opportunity to roll a threatened short call. Just in case the ABX strike is settled over the weekend, I’m getting out of the way (partially) even though a pop to 800 isn’t out of the question if the strike is settled.
These are being sold against a longer term position similar to the GOOGL trade…
#Rollup Rolled this week’s 777.5 call (sold for 3.43) out to next week’s 790 @ 1.25 credit
$DUST #ShortCalls – Sold 1…
$DUST #ShortCalls – Sold 1 Dust Dec 16 2016 90.0 Call @ 1.65, adding to my position.
$UVXY #CoveredCalls – Sold UVXY…
$UVXY #CoveredCalls – Sold UVXY Dec 2 2016 16.5 Calls @ 0.10
$ALXN #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold…
$ALXN #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold 1 ALXN JAN 20 2017 90.0 Put @ 1.35
VXX GAME
SVXY. Only a few more left and I am out of December 16 three weeks early.
BTC December 36 puts @0.05, sold @1.65
BTC December 38 puts @0.05, sold @2.26
BTC December 39 puts @0.05, sold @3.10
BTC December 40 puts @0.05, sold @3.220
TLT
Rolled Dec 134 puts out to Mar 2017 133 puts @ .12 credit
Continuing to collect the weekly dividend against the ITM puts…
#ShortCalls Sold TLT DEC 2 2016 121.0 Calls @ .73
These types of positions aren’t as bad as they look. For example, here the short puts are 13 dollars ITM but I’ve collected 6.43 in weekly premium since starting the position. As long as I can keep collecting 75 to 80 cents a week and gradually rolling down the puts it should work out. I look at it like collecting a 2 percent monthly dividend…24 percent dividend yield ain’t bad!
GOOGL
#ShortCalls Bought to Close GOOGL NOV 25 2016 795.0 Call @ .13 (sold for 2.25)
Sold GOOGL DEC 2 2016 792.5 Call @ 2.63
GLD
Rolled Dec 120 puts out to Feb 119 puts @ .05 credit
Continuing to collect the weekly dividend against the ITM puts…
#ShortCalls Sold GLD DEC 2 2016 114.0 Calls @ 1.10
Preemptive SPX roll
#SPXcampaign #CondorRoll #Rolling Since I believe risk is still to upside, I am rolling this one early. My stop on this was 2205 (20 points OTM); we came close yesterday and I believe we will break that level later today or Friday.
STOPPED: Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 2225/2250 for 4.60. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 2.15 on Nov 3rd.
#CondorRoll: Sold to Open Dec 15th 2100/2125/2245/2270 condors for 5.10 (same position size).
LLY
I’ve got enough biotech but LLY looks like a possible put sale…
Feb DUST
My first sale in Feb. Sold $DUST Feb 17 75 call @ 8.60. Starter position at the highest strike.
Jeff – access. The previous banner is missing, when I try to Post I am taken to WordPress ?
Jeff – access. The previous banner is missing, when I try to Post I am taken to WordPress ?
FB #shortputs Sold Dec. 16…
FB #shortputs
Sold Dec. 16 115 put for .88 to go with 126 covered call a result of assigned stock
DE in headlights
#Earnings Record highs for DE… and a dud for the ATM #IronButterfly. I don’t see a pullback t0 93 in the cards by Friday.
$WYNN #ShortPuts – Bought to…
$WYNN #ShortPuts – Bought to close WYNN DEC 16 2016 60.0 Puts @ 0.01. They won’t trade any lower.
Out of the position 4 weeks early.
SPX Puts Rolled
Bought to Close Dec 9th 2080 short puts, At 1.55, Previously sold on Nov 15 at 5.20
Sold to open Dec 9th 2140 short puts, at 4.30
Rolled the Delta 5 2080’s to a Delta 15 2140…
Closing FB
Closed for most of the max profit. With around 85% of the profit in a week, no sense waiting around over a month for the last 15% . Bought to close $FB Dec 30 105 puts @ .22 (sold for 1.60 on 11/14).
VXX game
BTC December 9 45 puts @0.05, sold @1.05. I am slowly getting filled on all my short put positions and will be ready to reload when we get a good correction. Now I am looking for some virgins to sacrifice so it will happen in January
Dow 19,000… first time ever!
/ES /VX pairs trade
#Futures I’ve been paper trading this for awhile and it seems to really work well. A low risk way to take advantage of contango all the time…not just during or after volatility spikes.
Looking at spot VIX as well as the futures…there is generally about a 2 point difference ($2000) between spot and front month and between front month and second month. As time passes with no volatility the front month future will gradually decrease to match spot while second month drops a similar amount (contango). If there is a volatility spike, spot will generally be the first to react with front month future lagging behind and second month future lagging even further behind since volatility is generally a short term phenomenon. Once spot exceeds front month we will be approaching a backwardation scenario.
So…with all that in mind, what’s the trade?
I’ve been shorting the front and second month futures against a similar number of short eminis. I keep a stop on the futures positions of 1.5 to 2 points higher and also sell a well out of the money put against the short emini. This allows 3 things to happen.
1. Drastically reduces risk on a volatility spike using the stops while continually cashing in on contango during long periods of low volatility.
2. If stopped out of the short volatility positions, the short /ES should make up for all the loss and probably more.
3. By selling the well out of the money /ES put I can still gradually raise my basis of the short /ES position but still give enough downside protection to make up for more than the volatility stop out loss.
Any thoughts or ideas are welcome. Still haven’t put the trade on in a real account. I probably will on the next decent volatility spike we get.
Happy Thanksgiving…just throwing some “food for thought” out there to chew on over the holiday weekend!
Use Hashtags!
I am ceasing the categorization of everyone’s posts and encouraging the use of hashtags. For the last year I have been going into my Admin screen to categorize everyone’s posts by strategy, such as #SPXcampaign or #VXXGame. But that’s simply too exhaustive now that more Contributors are signing up.
So, to help us in our search efforts and help newbies review trades under different categories, please try to use Hashtags in your posts. For Contributors, you will see common examples of hashtags in the window where you write your new post. In the right-hand column of the site, all members can see the “Most Used Hashtags” window for reference as well. Everyone can also use hashtags in the comments underneath posts.
So before posting, #Hashtag-It!
Closing this week’s NUGT strangle roll
Got a little lucky with this one since it stayed mostly in a narrow range between my short strikes the whole time the trade has been on. Bought to close $NUGT Nov 25 8/10 strangles for .15. Sold for 1.41 on 11/11 as a rollout from an expiring in the money 11 put. Able to close the position for an overall profit.
DE earnings IB
#Earnings #IronButterfly Sold to Open $DE Nov 25th 90/92.5/95 iron butterfly for 1.97. Max risk .53.
I don’t see a decent trade in GME, so unless anyone’s got a good idea I’ll be skipping it.
SPX Puts Rolled
BTC Dec 7th 2075 short puts at 1.15, Sold Nov 15th at 4.00
STO Dec 7th 2140 Short puts at 4.20
Rolled the 2075 Delta 4’s to a 2140 delta 15…
Executed as ES was at the 2192 low earlier
DUST roll
#ContangoETFs BTC $DUST Nov 25th 70 call for .05. Sold for 1.40 on Nov 11th
STO DUST Dec 9th 60 call for 3.50.
SPX calls rolled
#SPXcampaign #ReverseRoll
Bought to close $SPX Dec 2nd 2220/2245 call spreads for 3.50.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2150/2125 put spreads for 2.65, 1.5x position size.
$SVXY
Sold Dec 16th 70 Put @ 1.10. I will roll this if needed. Have a great Holiday all and safe travels. I’m out for the remainder.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2085/2060 for 1.40, with SPX at 2202. Not waiting for a pullback because I’m not expecting one this week.
$DUST #ShortPuts – Sold DUST…
$DUST #ShortPuts – Sold DUST Dec 30 2016 31.5 Puts @ 1.40
Rolling SPX…
BTC Nov 25 SPX 2215/2230 for $1.35 Sold for $0.45 last week…
STO Dec 2 SPX 2230/2245 for $1.55….
This is the first Roll I’ve ever done. I hope I did it right!
Comments please.
$SVXY #ShortCalls – sold these…
$SVXY #ShortCalls – sold these this morning with the stock just over 85.
Sold SVXY Dec 16 2016 95.0 Calls @ 0.85
Sold SVXY Dec 30 2016 95.0 Calls @ 1.80
Sold SVXY Dec 30 2016 100.0 Calls @ 0.75
PANW puts
On the big post-earnings drop, sold $PANW Jan 20 125 puts @ 2.00
Bistro VIX Indicator for Tuesday 11/22
AN UPSIDE WARNING FIRED ON MONDAY after the VIX closed below the 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days. This means a very high likelihood of a continued rally in the days and weeks to come.
We also established a new high in the SPX, 2198.70, and have set a new post-correction low in the VIX, 12.16.
Tuesday’s levels that would reverse course and end the Upside Warning are 15.53 (25% above the 2-day closing low), and 18.24 (50% above Nov 21 low). #VIXIndicator
PANW after hours stock
#Earnings $PANW has had an out-sized move down on earnings. Bought 100 shares at 140.85. Looking to unload with a move back above 150.
$DUST #ShortPuts – Sold 1…
$DUST #ShortPuts – Sold 1 DUST Dec 30 2016 38.0 Put @ 3.30
$SVXY #ShortCalls – sold these…
$SVXY #ShortCalls – sold these two this afternoon with the stock just under 85.
Sold SVXY Dec 23 2016 95.0 Calls @ 1.10
Sold SVXY Dec 30 2016 95.0 Calls @ 1.45
SPX Bullish Spread…
BTO Dec 9th SPX 2190/2195 BuCS for $3.00; this is a poor sibling of the position I closed this morning too soon. I’ll close it if the SPX closes below the 5 EMA on the daily chart.
SPX, reverse rolling and going long
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 2200/2220 call spreads for 3.20. Sold for 4.00 on Nov 9th.
Sold to open SPX Nov 30th 2170/2145 put spreads for 2.50, 1.5x position size (#ReverseRoll)
The above stopped spread expires Wednesday but we could be up to 2210 by then. Reverse rolled back into some puts, one week further out. Also, bought some LONG call spreads, targeting a double or triple:
Bought to open $SPX Dec 5th 2230/2250 call spreads for 1.90.
UVXY closing calls
#VXXGame Good idea, @fuzzballl
BTC UVXY Dec 16th 40 call for .04. Sold for 1.56 on Nov 3rd
BTC UVXY March 60 call for .38. Sold for 2.75 on Nov 3rd
UVXY call spreads
#IRA No sense waiting a month for 3 cents…
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 16 2016 35.0/45.0 Bear call spreads @ .03 (sold for 1.00)
/ES hedge for the hedge
#Futures Currently short a Dec 2160 call sold for 17.00
SOLD /ES DEC 16 2150/1950 Bull Put Spread @ 11.50
This will raise the basis of the short call to 2188.50 and give a downside breakeven of 2121.50 on the put spread. I’ll gladly take the short position at 2188.50 and then sell weekly puts against it. Regrowing the hedge after booking the profits on the last one on election night.
SVXY, getting filed a month early
BTC December 35 puts @0.05,STO @3.10
BTC December 37 puts @0.05, STO @1.75
SPX, new all-time high
SPX, new all-time high
DUST
I closed my November 25, 55/65 bear call spread for 0.80 cent which I sold for 0.90 cent so I am just glad to get that one off the books.
DUST Closed Dec and Jan…
DUST
Closed Dec and Jan 60 calls, freed up 10K in margin. I’m aware it may have been wiser to see how far the price would drop, but both trades are profitable. As Fuzzball has pointed out, TD has a large margin requirement on these tickers. The margin increases with the stock price, at least for me it does.
SPX ATM put spread sold
#SPXcampaign Since signs are bullish with likely Upside Warning, sold the following ATM put spread as a roll from a stopped call spread from last week:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2190/2165 put spreads for 8.25, with SPX at 2190.
Econ Calendar week of 11/21/16
SPX call spreads rolled
#SPXcampaign Buy To Close $SPX Dec 9 2235/2260 call spread @ 2.20. 2X Roll, STO Dec 23 2265/2290 call spreads @ 1.40. SPX @ 2192.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2260/2285 call spreads for 1.70, with SPX at 2192.
Upside Warning likely today
#VIXIndicator If the VIX closes below 13.59 tonight, an Upside Warning is in effect. Here I am reposting some data I posted on July 14th.:
(An Upside Warning fires when the VIX closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days)
1. 33 corrections since Nov 1999, as determined by the VIX Indicator’s downside signals. These corrections average 12.5% each. Smallest was 3% and largest was 53.7% (2008-9).
2. Of those corrections, an Upside Warning fired 28 of the 33 times.
3. In 27 out of 28 times, the SPX continued higher after the Warning.
4. The average SPX bottom to top recovery was 16.4%. The average rise AFTER the Warning was 6.40%. This means that the Upside Warning captured an average of 38.9% of each recovery.
5. The average amount of time between an Upside Warning and the next SPX high is 2.5 months.
For instance, in the recovery we are now in: SPX low was 1991 on June 27, high was 2169 on July 14. That is an 8.9% recovery. The Upside Warning fired Friday, July 8, when we closed at 2120.90. Since then, we topped out at 1.83% higher, which means the warning caught 21% of the move so far.
21% is below the 38.9% average, so more upside is definitely possible. But pullbacks can and do happen during Upside Warnings. A new spike in the VIX that triggers a Downside signal would end the Upside Warning.
In summary, when an Upside Warning fires it is almost guaranteed that more upside will come, and it could last several weeks.
SVXY
Good Morning. BTC December 34 puts @0.05 one month early. These were sold @3.40
SPX Position Chart and VIX Indicator are updated
#SPXcampaign Long overdue on the chart update. I have rolled my way mostly out of the election week whipsaw and have been keeping barely ahead of the rally.
#VIXIndicator If we have another close below 13.59 on Monday, it will trigger an upside warning. If it happens, watch for new all-time highs as we surge higher.
Expired
$SVXY 65 put
$CEMP 30 call
$CNX 18 put
$SPX 1935/1960 BUPS
$GOOG 720/740 BUPS
$UVXY 45 call
$AMZN 730/740 BUPS
$NUGT 9.50 call ( covered)
$FANG 95 put
$WLL 9 call (covered called away)
$NFLX 135/130 BECS
$LOCK 17 put (part of straddle – call assigned)
$TWLO 33 put
$SVXY 45 put
$AAPL 110 put
$ADP 90 call (covered – called away)
Assigned
$CSAL 30 put $27.90 basis
$LOCK sold short @17
Closed Early
$AMZN 11/18 770/775 BUPS @ 90% of total loss
$AMZN 11/18 760770 BUPS @ 44% of total loss
Total Loss
$FB 125/130 BUPS
NEVER AGAIN THIS MANY POSITIONS
Options Bistro 