Thanks again to @jeffcp66.
The CBOE presentation he recently highlighted was good for me. Below are my quick notes taken during the talk. A lot of it is basic, but basic is my middle name. Tried to copy and paste the PDF of the slides. Did not work.
Notes on CBOE presentation on High Probability Trading
Credit Spreads
Rule of Thumb
Use delta to see probability of success in a trade. If delta is .31 then 31% chance of success. Less than fifty is high probability of success for selling options.
Don’t sell if there are earnings during the spread timeframe
Exposure of credit spreads
Delta Direction
Vega Volatility
Use 2 to 6 weeks duration for credit spreads
Out of money spreads. Shorter time frame has higher theta decay and better for profits. Longer the time more uncertainty.
Low VIX makes selling premium more difficult. Elevated volatility increase probability of success and higher payback.
Hard to find resistance in this market. Call credit spreads more difficult to find.
Collect at least 10% of the spread width.
Typical max profit target is 70%. Full Monty implies a poorer risk/reward vis a vis black swans.
Options Bistro 