/NG BOIL UNG

Maybe put these back on the radar…

SHOP

New SHOP Diagonal Call Spread
Sold SHOP 09/13/2019 385.00 Calls / Bought SHOP 10/18/2019 500.00 Calls @ 0.65 Credit.
The chart shows a week’s worth of support in the form of a triple bottom at 380 decisively broken today.
I expect I will have a free month long lottery ticket by Friday if the short expires.

SHOP put spread

Borrowing an idea from @jsd501
Sold $SHOP 10/18 325/315 bull put spread @ 2.41

SPX 7-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 16th 2875/2900-3025/3050 for 2.25.

Expiring: Sept 9th, 2925/2945-3010/3025 condors, sold Friday for .85

NUGT

A couple of trades – I don’t know what you would call this combination of trades.
New NUGT Diagonal Spreads
Sold NUGT 09/13/2019 30.00 Puts / Bought NUGT 10/18/2019 20.00 Puts @ 0.20 Credit
-and-
Sold NUGT 09/13/2019 37.50 Calls / Bought NUGT 10/18/2019 60.00 Calls @ 0.15 Credit.

At least for this week, I want the stock to stay above 30.0 and below 37.50. The stock is right in the middle at 33.75

CMG

New CMG Diagonal Call Spread
Sold CMG 09/13/2019 860.00 Calls / Bought CMG 10/18/2019 940.00 Calls @ 1.23 Credit

CTRP earnings analysis

#Earnings $CTRP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 22, 2019 AC -3.18%
March 4, 2019 AC +19.77% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -19.01% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +5.43%
May 22, 2018 AC +3.98%
March 14, 2018 AC -1.94%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.29%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -2.40%
May 10, 2017 AC -3.52%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +1.44%
Nov. 23, 2016 AC +9.80%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC +3.40%

Avg (+ or -) 6.35%
Bias 0.96%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 34.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 31.56 to 37.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 32.31 to 36.69
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 27.68 to 41.32
Based on DOWN max only (-19.0%): 27.94

Open to requests for other symbols.