/NG BOIL UNG

Maybe put these back on the radar…

SHOP put spread

Borrowing an idea from @jsd501
Sold $SHOP 10/18 325/315 bull put spread @ 2.41

SPX 7-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 16th 2875/2900-3025/3050 for 2.25.

Expiring: Sept 9th, 2925/2945-3010/3025 condors, sold Friday for .85

CTRP earnings analysis

#Earnings $CTRP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 22, 2019 AC -3.18%
March 4, 2019 AC +19.77% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -19.01% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +5.43%
May 22, 2018 AC +3.98%
March 14, 2018 AC -1.94%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.29%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -2.40%
May 10, 2017 AC -3.52%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +1.44%
Nov. 23, 2016 AC +9.80%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC +3.40%

Avg (+ or -) 6.35%
Bias 0.96%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 34.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 31.56 to 37.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 32.31 to 36.69
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 27.68 to 41.32
Based on DOWN max only (-19.0%): 27.94

Open to requests for other symbols.

DRIP dropped

#ContangoETFs. BTC $DRIP Sept 20th 115 calls for .40. Sold for 3.60 on July 25th.

Closing some more DRIP

Bought to close 10/18 130 call @ 2.55.
Position is a rollout:
Original sale 9/20 115 call @ 3.50 on 7/25
Rolled up and out to 10/18 130 call @ 1.21 credit on 8/27
Total credit taken in: 4.71. Cost to close: 2.55. Profit: 2.16.

I’m still short Dec 115 and 130 calls.

SHOP

STO October 18, 325 put @ 8.30