TSLA

Bought to close 1 TSLA 11/01/2019 350.00 Call @ 0.01. Sold this on Monday at 4.10 as part of a diagonal spread.
Bought to close 1 TSLA 11/01/2019 355.00 Call @ 0.01. Sold this on Monday at 3.81 as part of a diagonal spread.

CBS Puts

Sold CBS 11/08/2019 34.50 Puts @ 0.40 with the stock at a 5-year low of 35.02.

CBS has confirmed that earnings will be announced 11/12/2019. With 24 analysts covering CBS, the consensus EPS estimate is $1.02, and the high and low estimates are $1.34 and $0.86, respectively

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 1st 2970/2990-3065/3085 condors for 1.05. IV 11.62%, SPX 3029.
Slightly bullish lean, considering Upside Warning still in effect and today’s pullback. Short call delta .04, short put delta .09.

Expiring today: Oct 31st 2995/3005-3070/3080, sold yesterday for .45

WDC

#ShortPuts – Small starter until I see how STX looks in the morning. 11.7 percent annualized if held to expiration and a 4.5 percent divvy down there. Far and away the biggest loser on my watchlist today.

Sold WDC DEC 20 2019 45.0 Puts @ .71

#earnings ANET Sold Dec. 20,…

#earnings ANET BABA

ANET Sold Dec. 20, 190/200/290/300 iron comdor for 1.88, outside the max 1 day moves.
BABA Sold Dec. 20 160/195 strangle for 3.74.
Thanks for the data Jeff

SHOP

STO December 20, 250 puts at 3.10, stock is at 309 and earnings are in February.

#SueCollar CMCSA Adjustment Here is…

#SueCollar CMCSA Adjustment

Here is the opening trade I did on Oct 11:
1. Bought 600 shares @ 45.02
2. Sold Nov 22 45 call @1.46 x6
3. Bought Nov 1 43 put @ .46 x 6
Net delta is 145 on 600 shares

Here is the adjustment:
1. Underlying price is 44.25 right now
2. Nov 1 43 puts: bid is 0.00, expiration at full loss is expected (-276)
3. Bot 6 Nov 22 43 put @.42
4. Bot 6 Nov 22 45 call @ .52, to close ($564 profit)
5. Sold 6 Dec 13 44 call @1.35

Net options trades $846 credit / 600 = 1.41 cost basis adjustment to $43.61. As before, not fully realized.

Thought process:
1. On Oct 11th the position delta was 145 on 600 shares. This morning the position delta was 350 on 600 shares….quite a bit more risk in the position (due to short-delta decay). I like to keep deltas below 30% of the underlying share delta (600 in this case).
2. Rolling calls and puts, instead of just puts) can be an effective way to reset the delta, I had 65% decay in the calls, so decided to take the profit and roll them out. My delta is now 77 instead of 350.
3. I had been planning on doing this adjustment tomorrow after NFP, with the thought that volatility would decrease. However vol has been steadily rising in CMCSA, and with that high position delta I wanted to get some better risk control on.
4. There are no divs left in CMCSA this year, so not a consideration
5. Crash protection with 43 puts

X earnings analysis

#Earnings $X reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2019 AC -8.60%
May 3, 2019 BO +17.30% Biggest UP
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +1.44%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +2.94%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -10.27%
April 26, 2018 AC -14.13%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.11%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC +7.81%
July 25, 2017 AC +7.20%
April 25, 2017 AC -26.77% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -4.21%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -4.75%

Avg (+ or -) 8.96%
Bias -2.85%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 11.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 10.60 to 12.40
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 10.47 to 12.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-26.8%): 8.42 to 14.58
Based on UP max only (+17.3%): 13.49

Open to requests for other symbols.

BABA earnings analysis

#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 15, 2019 BO +3.02%
May 15, 2019 BO +1.57%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%

Avg (+ or -) 2.96%
Bias 0.50%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 176.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 169.14 to 182.86
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 170.80 to 181.20
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 164.86 to 187.14
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 165.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

FB closed

#Earnings . Sold to close $FB Nov01/Nov08 187.5 #DoubleCalendar for 2.10. Bought yesterday for 1.00.