SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 1st 2970/2990-3065/3085 condors for 1.05. IV 11.62%, SPX 3029.
Slightly bullish lean, considering Upside Warning still in effect and today’s pullback. Short call delta .04, short put delta .09.

Expiring today: Oct 31st 2995/3005-3070/3080, sold yesterday for .45

WDC

#ShortPuts – Small starter until I see how STX looks in the morning. 11.7 percent annualized if held to expiration and a 4.5 percent divvy down there. Far and away the biggest loser on my watchlist today.

Sold WDC DEC 20 2019 45.0 Puts @ .71

#earnings ANET Sold Dec. 20,…

#earnings ANET BABA

ANET Sold Dec. 20, 190/200/290/300 iron comdor for 1.88, outside the max 1 day moves.
BABA Sold Dec. 20 160/195 strangle for 3.74.
Thanks for the data Jeff

SHOP

STO December 20, 250 puts at 3.10, stock is at 309 and earnings are in February.

#SueCollar CMCSA Adjustment Here is…

#SueCollar CMCSA Adjustment

Here is the opening trade I did on Oct 11:
1. Bought 600 shares @ 45.02
2. Sold Nov 22 45 call @1.46 x6
3. Bought Nov 1 43 put @ .46 x 6
Net delta is 145 on 600 shares

Here is the adjustment:
1. Underlying price is 44.25 right now
2. Nov 1 43 puts: bid is 0.00, expiration at full loss is expected (-276)
3. Bot 6 Nov 22 43 put @.42
4. Bot 6 Nov 22 45 call @ .52, to close ($564 profit)
5. Sold 6 Dec 13 44 call @1.35

Net options trades $846 credit / 600 = 1.41 cost basis adjustment to $43.61. As before, not fully realized.

Thought process:
1. On Oct 11th the position delta was 145 on 600 shares. This morning the position delta was 350 on 600 shares….quite a bit more risk in the position (due to short-delta decay). I like to keep deltas below 30% of the underlying share delta (600 in this case).
2. Rolling calls and puts, instead of just puts) can be an effective way to reset the delta, I had 65% decay in the calls, so decided to take the profit and roll them out. My delta is now 77 instead of 350.
3. I had been planning on doing this adjustment tomorrow after NFP, with the thought that volatility would decrease. However vol has been steadily rising in CMCSA, and with that high position delta I wanted to get some better risk control on.
4. There are no divs left in CMCSA this year, so not a consideration
5. Crash protection with 43 puts

X earnings analysis

#Earnings $X reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2019 AC -8.60%
May 3, 2019 BO +17.30% Biggest UP
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +1.44%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +2.94%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -10.27%
April 26, 2018 AC -14.13%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.11%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC +7.81%
July 25, 2017 AC +7.20%
April 25, 2017 AC -26.77% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -4.21%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -4.75%

Avg (+ or -) 8.96%
Bias -2.85%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 11.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 10.60 to 12.40
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 10.47 to 12.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-26.8%): 8.42 to 14.58
Based on UP max only (+17.3%): 13.49

Open to requests for other symbols.

BABA earnings analysis

#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 15, 2019 BO +3.02%
May 15, 2019 BO +1.57%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%

Avg (+ or -) 2.96%
Bias 0.50%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 176.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 169.14 to 182.86
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 170.80 to 181.20
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 164.86 to 187.14
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 165.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

FB closed

#Earnings . Sold to close $FB Nov01/Nov08 187.5 #DoubleCalendar for 2.10. Bought yesterday for 1.00.

#SueCollar TGT adjustment Here’s the…

#SueCollar TGT adjustment

Here’s the opening trade I did on Oct 15:
TGT
Bought 300 shares @ 111.84
Bought 3 Nov 8 110 put @ 1.65
Sold 3 Nov 29 112 Call @ 4.70

Whenever the puts are over a double, I look to adjust and take that profit, lowering cost basis.

Here’s my adjustment:
1. Sold 3 Nov 8 110 puts @ $3.84 ($657 profit)
2. Bot 3 Nov 29 112 Call @ 1.71 ($897 profit)
3. Bot 3 Nov 15 105 puts @ 1.31
4. Sold 3 Dec 13 106 calls @ 4.45

Thought process:
–Puts had more than doubled, calls had decayed over 60%. That’s what I like about this structure, the gamma in the short-dated puts can really cause a big move, yet the long dated calls still have really nice decay.
–Normally I would have bought Nov 22 puts, but that is earnings week and the puts are too expensive for me that week
–TGT dividend is the day before earnings, my short calls should have very adequate premium in them to be able to sustain a move up into earnings but still collect the dividend (.66).
–The math on this can be simple or complicated. Doing the simple math, my net debits and credits now across all options trades is $2496 credit, divided by 300 shares = $8.32 in cost basis reduction. That takes me to 103.52 for cost basis on shares purchased at 111.84. Obviously all of that cost basis reduction is not yet realized, and will change with the next adjustment—so $103.52 is “blue sky” at this point.
–I chose the Dec 13 calls to sell based on the dollar-strikes, I like to get right ATM
–I’m crash protected with the 105 puts.

#earnings #rolling TSLA October 23…

#earnings #rolling TSLA

October 23 sold a Nov. 15, 210/300 strangle for 3.92. TSLA went to the moon.
Rolled to an inverted Dec. 20 300c/320p strangle for 28.96 for a total of 32.88 in premium received.

ULTA UVXY

#CoveredCalls #BearCallSpreads – Just a couple this morning so far…

ULTA: See if we can turn this one around. This week’s safe so adding another.
Sold ULTA NOV 15 2019 242.5 Call @ 2.55

UVXY: Adding a few. First positions in Jan in this account.
Sold UVXY DEC 20 2019 25.0/35.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .86
Sold UVXY JAN 17 2020 25.0/35.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.21

#earnings #closng AAPL FB AAPL…

#earnings #closng AAPL FB

AAPL bought 210/270 strangle for 1.77, sold yesterday for 2.90
FB bought #ironcondor for 2.28, sold yesterday for 3.00
FB sold double calendar for 1.68, bought yesterday for 1.00 Thanks Jeff

ANET earnings analysis

#Earnings $ANET reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2019 AC -10.32%
May 2, 2019 AC -10.43%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +9.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +6.97%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC +3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC +18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.49%

Avg (+ or -) 10.36%
Bias 1.44%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 246.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 227.65 to 265.35
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 220.97 to 272.03
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 198.61 to 294.39
Based on DOWN max only (-19.0%): 199.71

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX Campaign / NFLX Close Early

#spxcampaign
$SPX 10/30 2980/3000/3065/3085 Expired

$SPX STO 10/31 2985/3005/3070/3090 at .70 Hoping for a treat

#bups
$NFLX BTC 11/15 250/260 at .40. STO at 1.85

LYFT

Reverse Iron Condor
LYFT earning Call credit spread and Put credit spread I am buying 50 selling 47 call credit at 0.66 and buy 39.5 selling 36.5 put credit spread at 0.40 with 5 point wide spread, expiring 1 NOV 2019

AAPL Earnings

#BullPutSpreads #Earnings – Since the market is never going down again I’m going slightly bullish in AAPL earnings. Selling a slightly in the money put spread. If it tanks still getting in at a good basis…

Sold AAPL NOV 01 2019 245.0/240.0 Bull Put Spread @ 2.30

SPX 7 day trade Sold…

SPX 7 day trade Sold Iron Condor Nov 06th 3089/3105 2965/2945 for 2.30.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 31st 2995/3005-3070/3080. Ten-wide, double size. IV: 9.09%, SPX 3045.

Expiring: Oct 30th 2980/3000-3065/3085, sold yesterday for 1.15.

VXX long puts

#VXXGame This is the first closing of my $VXX Jan 2020 20 puts, sold for 2.65. Bought between Jan 22 and Aug 27, avg price 1.30. Still holding several more.

LABU

#CoveredCalls – Basic out and up roll…

Rolled LABU NOV 01 2019 34.0 Call to NOV 29 2019 35.5 Call @ even

EA closed

#Earnings Sold to close $EA Nov01/Nov08 90.5 #DoubleCalendars for 1.19 & 1.20. Bought yesterday for .49 and .50.

#earnings AAPL FB AAPL Sold…

#earnings AAPL FB
AAPL Sold Dec. 20, 210/270 strangle for 2.90
FB Sold Dec. 20 160/170/205/215 for 3.00 #tastytradefollow
Thank you for the data Jeff

#earnings #closing EA AMD SHOP…

#earnings #closing EA AMD SHOP
SHOP Bought SHOP Iron condor for 1.65, sold Monday for 2.15
AMD Bought strangle for .75, sold yesterday for 1.34
EA Bought strangle for 1.50, sold yesterday for 2.72
HLF is still open
#Airport trading

TNA

#CoveredCalls – Hanging on to these a little longer and squeezing a few more pennies out of them. Keeping plenty of downside protection. Tiny pullback today helping with the ITM roll…

Rolled TNA NOV 01 2019 54.5 Calls to NOV 15 2019 54.5 Calls @ .50 credit (basis 41.40 on this batch)

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – All my call spreads are green with stops set for profits so adding a few more a little lower. Let’s see if ‘ol JP can say something to give me a chance to add. Selling against short puts so hoping these take a little heat…

Sold UVXY DEC 20 2019 25.0/35.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .88

Based on the TOS analyze tab 33.50 is where I would start going a little negative delta on my overall position so still a little room to add to the short call side…

FB dub cal

#Earnings Bought to open $FB Nov01/Nov08 187.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.00.

WDC earnings analysis

#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 31, 2019 AC +3.00%
April 29, 2019 AC +1.28%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +7.52% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -1.93%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +5.41%

Avg (+ or -) 5.74%
Bias -1.91%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 62.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 58.27 to 66.73
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 58.91 to 66.09
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 51.14 to 73.86
Based on UP max only (+7.5%): 67.20

Open to requests for other symbols.

HLF closed

#Earnings Sold to close $HLF Nov01/Nov08 40.5 #DoubleCalendar for .22. Bought yesterday for .38. It’s running higher with no intention of stopping…. grabbed what’s available before it gets to zero.

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%

Avg (+ or -) 5.56%
Bias 0.40%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 188.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 175.88 to 200.12
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 177.55 to 198.45
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 152.36 to 223.64
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 208.32

Open to requests for other symbols.

AAPL earnings analysis

#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +6.09%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -2.24%

Avg (+ or -) 4.25%
Bias 2.00%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 231.15 to 253.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 232.20 to 252.80
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 225.94 to 259.06
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 226.42

Open to requests for other symbols.

NUGT Put Rolled / BUD Closed Double Calendar Badly

#shortputs

$NUGT BTC 11/1 30 put and STO 11/8 30 put at .50 added credit.

#doublecalendar

$BUD BTO at .51 and ended up Closing out at additional
1.20. Tried to be cute but did not look in mirror. Got put the stock and placed trailing stop in anticipation of dead cat bounce. No bounce. Also closed the long put (aka HEDGE) early.

#earnings EA Sold Dec. 20…

#earnings EA HLF AMD
Sold Dec. 20 85/105 strangle for 2.72, waiting on a fill for #doublecalendar
HLF sold Dec. 20 40 straddle for 5.13
AMD sold Dec. 20 28/39 strangle for 1.34
Thanks for the data Jeff

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 30th 2980/3000-3065/3085 condors for 1.10. IV 10.62%, SPX 3038.

IV and premium slightly higher due to FOMC tomorrow, I’m guessing.

#fallingknife GRUB is down 42%

#fallingknife
GRUB is down 42%
BYND down 19%

HLF earnings analysis and trade

#Earnings $HLF reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2019 AC -6.77% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2019 AC -4.51%
Feb. 19, 2019 AC -2.01%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -2.61%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +13.03% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 AC +4.47%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC +3.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -2.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC -1.95%
May 4, 2017 AC +11.57%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -4.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -6.19%

Avg (+ or -) 5.30%
Bias 0.05%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 40.40 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 36.92 to 43.88
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 38.26 to 42.54
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.0%): 35.14 to 45.66
Based on DOWN max only (-6.8%): 37.66

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar, #doublecalendars

EA earnings analysis and trade

#Earnings $EA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2019 AC +4.43%
May 7, 2019 AC +1.24%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -13.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -4.05%
July 26, 2018 AC -5.70%
May 8, 2018 AC +5.74%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.95%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC -4.28%
July 27, 2017 AC +0.55%
May 9, 2017 AC +12.65% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -0.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +1.64%

Avg (+ or -) 5.09%
Bias 0.45%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 95.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.42 to 101.58
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 90.17 to 99.83
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 82.37 to 107.64
Based on UP max only (+12.7%): 107.02

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalemdar, #doublecalendar

MTCH

STO November 15, 65 put at 1.25, earnings on November 5.

#Augen In case you missed…

#Augen
In case you missed it (I did) there was a 3-in-5 Augen signal on Oct 9th. That’s the first signal since Aug 2018–roughly 14 months. It “should” mean that the rally has some legs. However I still watch the rolling 20 day score on 1-standard dev up moves. We were at 6, we’ve dropped to 5….over 6 can mean things are a little hot. The higher the rolling score gets, the more likely for a correction (manic buying).
I only count Augen signals the first time they hit after a 4% or more correction. So multiple Augen signals I don’t count after the first one. It stays in place until a 4% drop (however there was a 2nd Augen 3-5 signal on Oct 19).

#earnings #closing GOOG Sold Nov….

#earnings #closing GOOG
Sold Nov. 1 long put spread for 1.96, bought yesterday for 1.25

#suecollar HP Trying this collar…

#suecollar HP

Trying this collar strategy on HP. It only has monthlys so can’t follow the time frame as accurately.
Bought 100 shares at 39.67 (at the bell yesterday), sold Dec. 40 call for 1.87, today bought a 35 puts for .35 . Ex-div Nov. 7, roughly .70 dividend. Earnings Nov. 14.

AMD earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2019 AC -10.09%
April 30, 2019 AC -2.96%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +19.94% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -15.44%
July 25, 2018 AC +14.33%
April 25, 2018 AC +13.69%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.75%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -13.47%
July 25, 2017 AC +4.60%
May 1, 2017 AC -24.22% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +16.29%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -6.32%

Avg (+ or -) 12.34%
Bias 0.26%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 33.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.76 to 36.24
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 28.93 to 37.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 25.01 to 40.99
Based on UP max only (+19.9%): 39.58

Open to requests for other symbols.

I Prefer The Pumpkins

I usually review the bistro with a cup of coffee. Tonight not sure what is giving me the shakes. 😉

#earnings GOOG #tastytradefollow Bought Nov….

#earnings GOOG SHOP
#tastytradefollow
GOOG Bought Nov. 1 put spread 1295/1297.50 for 1.25
GOOG Bought Nov. 1 call butterfly 1352.50/1357.50/1357.50/1362.50 for .17
SHOP Sold Dec. 20 250/260/405/415 #ironcondor for 2.15

A TRADE: Slow day for me.

GOOS STO 11/1/19 42.50 CALLS @.70. Will cover if necessary.

NOK Short Put

#shortputs

$NOK STO 1/2020 $4 put at .47. Might get into a 5G upside or make 31% in less than 3 months.

SHOP

#CoveredCalls #Earnings – SHOP reports in the morning. I’m gonna try something different here just for fun. Sitting about breakeven on my stock/covered call and since these are fairly easy to roll in these expensive stocks I’m rolling the call down to the bottom of the expected move for max downside protection.

Stock rallies I’ll try to roll up and out. Stock tanks make some decent money with nice basis reduction…

Rolled SHOP NOV 01 2019 302.5 Call to NOV 01 2019 292.5 Call @ 7.50 credit (24.05 total premium now)

Call now sitting just below my new basis of 296.65.

BYND earnings analysis

#Earnings $BYND reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history, only 2 quarters.

July 29, 2019 AC -12.32%
June 6, 2019 AC +39.34%

Avg (+ or -) 25.83%
Bias 13.51%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 101.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 84.00 to 119.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 2 quarters: 75.47 to 128.03
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (39.3%): 61.72 to 141.78
Based on DOWN max only (-12.3%): 89.21

Open to requests for other symbols.

GOOGL earnings analysis

#Earnings $GOOGL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 25, 2019 AC +9.62% Biggest UP
April 29, 2019 AC -7.50% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 4, 2019 AC +0.91%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -1.79%
July 23, 2018 AC +3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +4.26%
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +0.27%

Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias -0.08%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 1,295.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1,234.29 to 1,355.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1,245.02 to 1,344.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 1,170.42 to 1,419.58
Based on DOWN max only (-7.5%): 1,197.88

Open to requests for other symbols.

TQQQ Rolled Again

#perpetualrollingstrangles
$TQQQ BTC 11/1 66 call and STO 11/15 69 call at debit of 1.13. Would gain $3 if called away. These sold against 60% of 1/2020 66.67 long calls. The long calls are now paid for. But who knows what the future brings. TQQQ at 69.51. I would roll again if an opportunity presents itself.

test

If this publishes then Edge on Windows is back working with optionsbistro.com

#assignment #earnings TWTR Following a…

#assignment #earnings TWTR
Following a trade that goes against what I am comfortable doing, sold an earnings weekly straddle along with a Dec. strangle, I was assigned at 38, no premium in rolling. I sold a Nov. 1, 31 covered call, cost basis is now 34.25 with stock at 30.

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Issue finally resolved and orders went through. Lucky for all of us, SPX moved in a straight line while this was happening. Otherwise, there would have been millions of dollars of claims against IB. I imagine there still will be a mess, but fortunately I got out for less that I originally would have.

Bought to close $SPX Oct 28th 3045 calls for 1.60. Condors sold for .45 on Friday.

I’m going to look for a spike higher to sell the 3055 long calls.

VIX

Up 2 percent….things that make you go hmmmm….

SPX down on IB

#SPX1dte . I’m unable to trade on $SPX with Interactive Brokers. I have passed my stop level, trying to close the calls on my 1-dte. Been on the phone, but they say there’s an issue with the exchange and they can’t get any orders through. This should be interesting.

Scary Dude

@jeff Wallpaper to keep us up at night. Merci!

SPX 1 dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 28th 2975/2985-3045/3055 condors for .45, 10-wide, double size, IV 5.80%, SPX 3021.

Expiring, Oct 25th 2950/2970-3030/3050, sold yesterday for .80.

VIX collapsing

#VIXindicator The Upside Warning coming through this time, with $VIX hitting lowest level since July 29th. $SPX came within .59 of all-time high earlier today.

AMZN closed

#Earnings . BTC $AMZN #IronButterfly for for 21.46. Sold yesterday for 27.00. Nice when these work.

ULTA

#CoveredCalls – Last one of the day…

Rolled ULTA OCT 25 2019 240.0 Call to NOV 1 2019 242.5 Call @ 2.25 credit

UVXY longs

#VXXGame . Sold to close partial $UVXY Jan 2020 long 20 puts for 3.75. Avg price on purchase, 1.85. Holding others for better price. Also have larger amount of VXX Jan 20 puts, avg price 1.30. Now going for 2.55… will start selling these soon.

Economic calendar week of 10/28/19

#FOMC meeting notes and press conference Wednesday
#Jobs Report on Friday
Screen Shot 2019-10-25 at 10.21.01 AM
Screen Shot 2019-10-25 at 10.21.01 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=28&month=10&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

TRADES:

NTNX BTO STOCK @29.36
SKX BTO STOCK @38.00
CHWY BTC 10/25/19 28.0 PUTS @.80
CHWY STO 11/1/19 28.0 PUTS @1.10 A rollout
GOOS BTC 10/25/19 39.5 PUTS @.10
GOOS BTX 10/25/19 40.5 CALLS @.05

SHOP

Barron’s update….earnings next week.

Shopify (SHOP) stock price has more than doubled this year, though its rally has weakened in recent months. Guggenheim argues that the coming quarter could provide some upside — even if valuations still look stretched.

The back story. Shopify(SHOP) shares have jumped 128% in 2019, even after a recent pullback following the e-commerce company’s most recent earnings report, well ahead of the S&P 500’s 20% gain and the 33% rise in the Technology Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund (XLK).

The company’s results in August came in ahead of expectations, and bulls have pointed to Shopify’s(SHOP) new fulfillment center and the acquisition of warehouse automation firm 6 River Systems. The moves could position the company to become a true alternative to Amazon.com(AMZN) , especially if it can woo merchants with friendlier policies. Still, its shares have drifted lower in recent months — with some arguing the drop has gone too far.

What’s new. On Friday, Guggenheim analyst Ken Wong reiterated a Neutral rating on the shares, but argues that the setup for Shopify(SHOP) looks “reasonable” heading into the company’s third-quarter earnings report, due out on Tuesday.

While investors have recently been worried about Shopify’s(SHOP) merchant-solutions business in the face of softer payment-volume data, Wong suggests this is overblown. “Our small and medium business survey suggests the current demand trends across small and mid-sized merchants remains stable. E-commerce vendors continue to outpace traditional peers, ” he writes. “Our industry checks have been positive with expectations for gross merchandise value growth to mirror first half trends.”

Looking ahead. As for the upcoming quarter, Wong notes that Shopify’s(SHOP) long history of consistently beating guidance will have investors “still looking for meaningful upside to consensus revenue estimates…north of the upper end of the guidance range” even as the shares have drifted lower in recent months — though expectations may be somewhat tempered by recent results from eBay(EBAY) and Amazon(AMZN).

Any potential upside in the quarter will likely be from the merchant-solutions business, says Wong, where his estimates are above consensus. “That said, we expect any top line surprise to deliver some flow through to operating income and drive earnings per share ahead of our 12 cent estimate,” he writes. But he remains on the sidelines due to valuation.

Shopify (SHOP) stock is down 2.4%, at $315.50, in recent trading. The S&P 500 is up 0.15%.

BUD DUD

#Earnings . Sold to close $BUD Oct25/Nov01 92 put calendar for .01. #DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for .58. Leaving the call side to expire/lottery ticket.

Also, sold to close $SKX Oct 25th 37.5 #LongStraddle for .39. Bought for 4.39 on Tuesday. That was a bad one. Shitty week for earnings trade on my end.

REGN UVXY

#CoveredCalls #ShortCalls – Slow week…

REGN: Last roll before the earnings roll. Lots of premium accumulated so hope it expires next week.
Rolled REGN OCT 25 2019 300.0 Call to NOV 01 2019 302.5 Call @ 2.00 credit (10.40 total now)

UVXY: Rolling puts out and down and selling against them…needing a little volatility spike any time though.
Rolled UVXY OCT 25 2019 25.0 Puts to DEC 20 2019 23.0 Puts @ .30 credit
Rolled UVXY OCT 25 2019 26.5 Puts to DEC 20 2019 25.0 Puts @ .35 credit

Sold UVXY NOV 15 2019 25.0 Calls @ .69

SPOT earnings analysis

#Earnings $SPOT reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history (6 quarters).

July 31, 2019 BO -0.16%
April 29, 2019 BO -0.07%
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -2.83%
Nov. 1, 2018 BO -5.69% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO +4.40% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.65%

Avg (+ or -) 3.13%
Bias -1.67%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 120.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 110.89 to 129.11
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 116.24 to 123.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.7%): 113.17 to 126.83
Based on UP max only (+4.4%): 125.28

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX BeCS

Closed my Oct 25th 3035/3045 BeCS for .05.  Taking the risk off just in case something weird happens while I’m away today.

T earnings analysis

#Earnings $T reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 24, 2019 BO +3.58%
April 24, 2019 BO -4.08%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO -4.33%
Oct. 24, 2018 BO -8.05% Biggest DOWN
July 24, 2018 AC -4.51%
April 25, 2018 AC -5.96%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -3.93%
July 25, 2017 AC +4.99% Biggest UP
April 25, 2017 AC +1.25%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +0.91%
Oct. 22, 2016 AC -1.68%

Avg (+ or -) 3.99%
Bias -1.44%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 37.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.39 to 38.61
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 35.53 to 38.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.1%): 34.02 to 39.98
Based on UP max only (+5.0%): 38.85

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings #closing #assignment FFIV TWTR…

#earnings #closing #assignment FFIV TWTR MMM
FFIV sold double calendar for 1.00, bought Wednesday for .82
FFIV sold strangle for 2,07 on Wednesday, bought today for 1.34
MMM Wednesday bought double calendar for 1.02, sold today for 1.35
TWTR I will be assigned 100 shares at 38, sold an Oct. 25 straddle for 3.75. Rolling doesn’t bring anything, covered calls will help.

EW DC Closed

#doublecalendar
$EW STC Double calendar at 2.35. BTO at 1.60. Thank you @jeff

PS Is the @ still bringing up names. Doesn’t work for me on any platform I use.

#assignment Letting LABU, TQQQ and…

#assignment

Letting LABU, TQQQ and TNA all be called out tomorrow. All profitable but I am exiting the triple game after seeing the tasty trade research.

Also staying out of earnings as much as I can. My earnings track record is not so good, lost on 8 out of 5 when I decided to stay out a few quarters ago. I will stay in them if I already have #fuzzy on.

Making enough money just doing #pietrades, #fuzzy, #hedges, and Pie trade #optionladder that I can stick with those. May be boring to some, but it is mechanical and it works. 2 accounts hit all time highs the last 2 weeks and both had SVXY in them. 2 down, 1 to go but that was the biggest loss and will take more time but on a portfolio basis I am back above my cost basis so technically all the losses have been covered 🙂

20 months to break even.

Plan not to ever do that again 🙂 🙂

And the hedges will help, see below.

@hcgdavis Chris, what are the…

@hcgdavis
Chris, what are the current hedges you have on?
Can you please share some examples?

AMZN iron butterfly

#Earnings . Sold $AMZN Oct 25th 1745/1775/1805 #IronButterfly for 27.00. Risking 3.00 to make, hopefully a lot.

This is a classic play I’ve done probably a dozen times. It worked nicely in Q1, with a 20.00 profit. But often, it can be max loss, which tomorrow would be 3.00. Used to get these for closer to 28.00, but times have changed; probably the higher stock price to blame.

ILMN Earnings Strangle

BTO Oct 25 Strangle in $ILMN $345 Call at $1.10/$280 Put at $0.85.

ITW Puts

BTO 2x $ITW 10/25 $150.00 Puts at $0.33.