EW DC Closed

#doublecalendar
$EW STC Double calendar at 2.35. BTO at 1.60. Thank you @jeff

PS Is the @ still bringing up names. Doesn’t work for me on any platform I use.

#assignment Letting LABU, TQQQ and…

#assignment

Letting LABU, TQQQ and TNA all be called out tomorrow. All profitable but I am exiting the triple game after seeing the tasty trade research.

Also staying out of earnings as much as I can. My earnings track record is not so good, lost on 8 out of 5 when I decided to stay out a few quarters ago. I will stay in them if I already have #fuzzy on.

Making enough money just doing #pietrades, #fuzzy, #hedges, and Pie trade #optionladder that I can stick with those. May be boring to some, but it is mechanical and it works. 2 accounts hit all time highs the last 2 weeks and both had SVXY in them. 2 down, 1 to go but that was the biggest loss and will take more time but on a portfolio basis I am back above my cost basis so technically all the losses have been covered 🙂

20 months to break even.

Plan not to ever do that again 🙂 🙂

And the hedges will help, see below.

@hcgdavis Chris, what are the…

@hcgdavis
Chris, what are the current hedges you have on?
Can you please share some examples?

AMZN iron butterfly

#Earnings . Sold $AMZN Oct 25th 1745/1775/1805 #IronButterfly for 27.00. Risking 3.00 to make, hopefully a lot.

This is a classic play I’ve done probably a dozen times. It worked nicely in Q1, with a 20.00 profit. But often, it can be max loss, which tomorrow would be 3.00. Used to get these for closer to 28.00, but times have changed; probably the higher stock price to blame.

ILMN Earnings Strangle

BTO Oct 25 Strangle in $ILMN $345 Call at $1.10/$280 Put at $0.85.

ITW Puts

BTO 2x $ITW 10/25 $150.00 Puts at $0.33.

Visa Puts

BTO 5x $V Nov 1 $160.00 Puts at $0.21.  Reports after the bell today.

WBA $61.50 Calls

$WBA reporting earnings before market open on Monday, took opportunity today since stock’s down to buy some OTM $61.50 Calls Exp. Nov 8th as a 10-lot at $0.07 a piece.

Had a similar play in $T on Tuesday afternoon, bought 15x $37.50 puts for 10/15 exp. for $0.07/put as I got the earnings date mixed up, closed at a scratch yesterday, now stock is down and they’re worth $0.85-0.90 a piece…

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Oct 25th 2950/2970-3030/3050 condors for .80, IV 8.89%, SPX 3004

EW

Just closed Dbl Cal BTO yesterday @ 1.55 STC $2.75

Thx Jeff

EDU

BTO, January 120/135 call spread@ 5.10

EW closed

#Earnings BTC $EW Oct25/Nov01 222.5p/225c #DoubleCalendar for 1.92 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.60.

#earnings #closing EW Sold #doublecalendar…

#earnings #closing EW
Sold #doublecalendar for 2.35, bought yesterday for 1.50
Thanks Jeff for the idea

VFC earnings analysis

#Earnings $VFC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 24, 2019 BO +1.20%
May 22, 2019 BO -7.64%
Jan. 18, 2019 BO +12.39% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -10.71%
July 20, 2018 BO +4.14%
May 4, 2018 BO -2.79%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO -11.07% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 23, 2017 BO +5.37%
July 24, 2017 BO +0.39%
April 28, 2017 BO -5.56%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +4.58%
Oct. 24, 2016 BO -2.92%

Avg (+ or -) 5.73%
Bias -1.05%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 90.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 86.01 to 94.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 85.31 to 95.69
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 79.29 to 101.71
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 80.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

BUD DUB

#Earnings Bought $BUD Oct25/Nov01 92 #DoubleCalendar for .55.

TWTR PUT

#shortputs

$TWTR STO 11/15/2019 31 put at 1.34

BUD earnings analysis

#Earnings $BUD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 25, 2019 BO +4.11%
May 7, 2019 BO -3.99%
Feb. 28, 2019 BO +4.60%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -9.37% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO -5.02%
May 9, 2018 BO -0.31%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.07%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
July 27, 2017 BO +6.16% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 BO +5.68%
March 2, 2017 BO -3.72%
Oct. 28, 2016 BO -3.80%

Avg (+ or -) 4.23%
Bias -0.29%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 92.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.25 to 95.75
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 88.11 to 95.89
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 83.38 to 100.62
Based on UP max only (+6.2%): 97.67

Open to requests for other symbols.

AMZN earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%

Avg (+ or -) 4.11%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 1,765.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1,697.56 to 1,832.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1,692.44 to 1,837.56
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1,531.84 to 1,998.16
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 1,627.15

Open to requests for other symbols.

XLNX

STC Double Calendar at 1.35,  so a profit of .70 cents. Thanks Jeff.

SNAP shut

#Earnings . Sold to close $SNAP Oct 25th 14.5 puts for 1.60. #LongStraddle bought for 2.26. Small loss on this one, $SKZ looking bad.

FFIV closed

#Earnings Sold to close $FFIV Oct25/Nov01 139 #DoubleCalendar for .35. Bought yesterday for .79. I think you can get more, and if there’s a bigger pullback this could turn into profit. This was only a small position for me.

#earnings #closing XLNX Bought strangle…

#earnings #closing XLNX
Bought strangle for .90, sold yesterday for 2.25, everything else is going to take some work.

Late Post – LLY Earnings Puts

Sorry for the late post, I BTO 4x $LLY Oct 25 $100 Puts at $0.11 Debit on Tuesday near the close, and STC 4x $LLY Oct $100 Puts at open yesterday for $0.33 Credit.