NUGT Put Rolled / BUD Closed Double Calendar Badly

#shortputs

$NUGT BTC 11/1 30 put and STO 11/8 30 put at .50 added credit.

#doublecalendar

$BUD BTO at .51 and ended up Closing out at additional
1.20. Tried to be cute but did not look in mirror. Got put the stock and placed trailing stop in anticipation of dead cat bounce. No bounce. Also closed the long put (aka HEDGE) early.

#earnings EA Sold Dec. 20…

#earnings EA HLF AMD
Sold Dec. 20 85/105 strangle for 2.72, waiting on a fill for #doublecalendar
HLF sold Dec. 20 40 straddle for 5.13
AMD sold Dec. 20 28/39 strangle for 1.34
Thanks for the data Jeff

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 30th 2980/3000-3065/3085 condors for 1.10. IV 10.62%, SPX 3038.

IV and premium slightly higher due to FOMC tomorrow, I’m guessing.

#fallingknife GRUB is down 42%

#fallingknife
GRUB is down 42%
BYND down 19%

HLF earnings analysis and trade

#Earnings $HLF reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2019 AC -6.77% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2019 AC -4.51%
Feb. 19, 2019 AC -2.01%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -2.61%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +13.03% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 AC +4.47%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC +3.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -2.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC -1.95%
May 4, 2017 AC +11.57%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -4.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -6.19%

Avg (+ or -) 5.30%
Bias 0.05%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 40.40 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 36.92 to 43.88
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 38.26 to 42.54
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.0%): 35.14 to 45.66
Based on DOWN max only (-6.8%): 37.66

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar, #doublecalendars

EA earnings analysis and trade

#Earnings $EA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2019 AC +4.43%
May 7, 2019 AC +1.24%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -13.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -4.05%
July 26, 2018 AC -5.70%
May 8, 2018 AC +5.74%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.95%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC -4.28%
July 27, 2017 AC +0.55%
May 9, 2017 AC +12.65% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -0.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +1.64%

Avg (+ or -) 5.09%
Bias 0.45%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 95.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.42 to 101.58
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 90.17 to 99.83
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 82.37 to 107.64
Based on UP max only (+12.7%): 107.02

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalemdar, #doublecalendar

MTCH

STO November 15, 65 put at 1.25, earnings on November 5.

#Augen In case you missed…

#Augen
In case you missed it (I did) there was a 3-in-5 Augen signal on Oct 9th. That’s the first signal since Aug 2018–roughly 14 months. It “should” mean that the rally has some legs. However I still watch the rolling 20 day score on 1-standard dev up moves. We were at 6, we’ve dropped to 5….over 6 can mean things are a little hot. The higher the rolling score gets, the more likely for a correction (manic buying).
I only count Augen signals the first time they hit after a 4% or more correction. So multiple Augen signals I don’t count after the first one. It stays in place until a 4% drop (however there was a 2nd Augen 3-5 signal on Oct 19).

#earnings #closing GOOG Sold Nov….

#earnings #closing GOOG
Sold Nov. 1 long put spread for 1.96, bought yesterday for 1.25

#suecollar HP Trying this collar…

#suecollar HP

Trying this collar strategy on HP. It only has monthlys so can’t follow the time frame as accurately.
Bought 100 shares at 39.67 (at the bell yesterday), sold Dec. 40 call for 1.87, today bought a 35 puts for .35 . Ex-div Nov. 7, roughly .70 dividend. Earnings Nov. 14.

AMD earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2019 AC -10.09%
April 30, 2019 AC -2.96%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +19.94% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -15.44%
July 25, 2018 AC +14.33%
April 25, 2018 AC +13.69%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.75%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -13.47%
July 25, 2017 AC +4.60%
May 1, 2017 AC -24.22% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +16.29%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -6.32%

Avg (+ or -) 12.34%
Bias 0.26%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 33.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.76 to 36.24
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 28.93 to 37.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 25.01 to 40.99
Based on UP max only (+19.9%): 39.58

Open to requests for other symbols.