SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 1st 2970/2990-3065/3085 condors for 1.05. IV 11.62%, SPX 3029.
Slightly bullish lean, considering Upside Warning still in effect and today’s pullback. Short call delta .04, short put delta .09.

Expiring today: Oct 31st 2995/3005-3070/3080, sold yesterday for .45

WDC

#ShortPuts – Small starter until I see how STX looks in the morning. 11.7 percent annualized if held to expiration and a 4.5 percent divvy down there. Far and away the biggest loser on my watchlist today.

Sold WDC DEC 20 2019 45.0 Puts @ .71

#earnings ANET Sold Dec. 20,…

#earnings ANET BABA

ANET Sold Dec. 20, 190/200/290/300 iron comdor for 1.88, outside the max 1 day moves.
BABA Sold Dec. 20 160/195 strangle for 3.74.
Thanks for the data Jeff

SHOP

STO December 20, 250 puts at 3.10, stock is at 309 and earnings are in February.

#SueCollar CMCSA Adjustment Here is…

#SueCollar CMCSA Adjustment

Here is the opening trade I did on Oct 11:
1. Bought 600 shares @ 45.02
2. Sold Nov 22 45 call @1.46 x6
3. Bought Nov 1 43 put @ .46 x 6
Net delta is 145 on 600 shares

Here is the adjustment:
1. Underlying price is 44.25 right now
2. Nov 1 43 puts: bid is 0.00, expiration at full loss is expected (-276)
3. Bot 6 Nov 22 43 put @.42
4. Bot 6 Nov 22 45 call @ .52, to close ($564 profit)
5. Sold 6 Dec 13 44 call @1.35

Net options trades $846 credit / 600 = 1.41 cost basis adjustment to $43.61. As before, not fully realized.

Thought process:
1. On Oct 11th the position delta was 145 on 600 shares. This morning the position delta was 350 on 600 shares….quite a bit more risk in the position (due to short-delta decay). I like to keep deltas below 30% of the underlying share delta (600 in this case).
2. Rolling calls and puts, instead of just puts) can be an effective way to reset the delta, I had 65% decay in the calls, so decided to take the profit and roll them out. My delta is now 77 instead of 350.
3. I had been planning on doing this adjustment tomorrow after NFP, with the thought that volatility would decrease. However vol has been steadily rising in CMCSA, and with that high position delta I wanted to get some better risk control on.
4. There are no divs left in CMCSA this year, so not a consideration
5. Crash protection with 43 puts

X earnings analysis

#Earnings $X reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2019 AC -8.60%
May 3, 2019 BO +17.30% Biggest UP
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +1.44%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +2.94%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -10.27%
April 26, 2018 AC -14.13%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.11%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC +7.81%
July 25, 2017 AC +7.20%
April 25, 2017 AC -26.77% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -4.21%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -4.75%

Avg (+ or -) 8.96%
Bias -2.85%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 11.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 10.60 to 12.40
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 10.47 to 12.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-26.8%): 8.42 to 14.58
Based on UP max only (+17.3%): 13.49

Open to requests for other symbols.

BABA earnings analysis

#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 15, 2019 BO +3.02%
May 15, 2019 BO +1.57%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%

Avg (+ or -) 2.96%
Bias 0.50%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 176.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 169.14 to 182.86
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 170.80 to 181.20
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 164.86 to 187.14
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 165.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

FB closed

#Earnings . Sold to close $FB Nov01/Nov08 187.5 #DoubleCalendar for 2.10. Bought yesterday for 1.00.

#SueCollar TGT adjustment Here’s the…

#SueCollar TGT adjustment

Here’s the opening trade I did on Oct 15:
TGT
Bought 300 shares @ 111.84
Bought 3 Nov 8 110 put @ 1.65
Sold 3 Nov 29 112 Call @ 4.70

Whenever the puts are over a double, I look to adjust and take that profit, lowering cost basis.

Here’s my adjustment:
1. Sold 3 Nov 8 110 puts @ $3.84 ($657 profit)
2. Bot 3 Nov 29 112 Call @ 1.71 ($897 profit)
3. Bot 3 Nov 15 105 puts @ 1.31
4. Sold 3 Dec 13 106 calls @ 4.45

Thought process:
–Puts had more than doubled, calls had decayed over 60%. That’s what I like about this structure, the gamma in the short-dated puts can really cause a big move, yet the long dated calls still have really nice decay.
–Normally I would have bought Nov 22 puts, but that is earnings week and the puts are too expensive for me that week
–TGT dividend is the day before earnings, my short calls should have very adequate premium in them to be able to sustain a move up into earnings but still collect the dividend (.66).
–The math on this can be simple or complicated. Doing the simple math, my net debits and credits now across all options trades is $2496 credit, divided by 300 shares = $8.32 in cost basis reduction. That takes me to 103.52 for cost basis on shares purchased at 111.84. Obviously all of that cost basis reduction is not yet realized, and will change with the next adjustment—so $103.52 is “blue sky” at this point.
–I chose the Dec 13 calls to sell based on the dollar-strikes, I like to get right ATM
–I’m crash protected with the 105 puts.

#earnings #rolling TSLA October 23…

#earnings #rolling TSLA

October 23 sold a Nov. 15, 210/300 strangle for 3.92. TSLA went to the moon.
Rolled to an inverted Dec. 20 300c/320p strangle for 28.96 for a total of 32.88 in premium received.

ULTA UVXY

#CoveredCalls #BearCallSpreads – Just a couple this morning so far…

ULTA: See if we can turn this one around. This week’s safe so adding another.
Sold ULTA NOV 15 2019 242.5 Call @ 2.55

UVXY: Adding a few. First positions in Jan in this account.
Sold UVXY DEC 20 2019 25.0/35.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .86
Sold UVXY JAN 17 2020 25.0/35.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.21

#earnings #closng AAPL FB AAPL…

#earnings #closng AAPL FB

AAPL bought 210/270 strangle for 1.77, sold yesterday for 2.90
FB bought #ironcondor for 2.28, sold yesterday for 3.00
FB sold double calendar for 1.68, bought yesterday for 1.00 Thanks Jeff

ANET earnings analysis

#Earnings $ANET reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2019 AC -10.32%
May 2, 2019 AC -10.43%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +9.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +6.97%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC +3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC +18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.49%

Avg (+ or -) 10.36%
Bias 1.44%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 246.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 227.65 to 265.35
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 220.97 to 272.03
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 198.61 to 294.39
Based on DOWN max only (-19.0%): 199.71

Open to requests for other symbols.