SPX Campaign

#spxcampaign

$SPX 10/23 2965/2985/3030/3045 IC expired. STO at 1.50. Thank you @jeff. Sorry you prudently closed out.

Rolling IRBT

Been holding this one since July and I probably should have just removed it before earnings and reinitiated. So I’m rolling 11/15 55 puts out to 12/20 55 puts @ .75 credit. I’m also adding short 12/20 55 calls @ 1.24 to create a 55 straddle with the stock around 48.60. Total credit taken in now 3.39 so I’ll be profitable between 51.61 and 58.39 at December expiration. An oversold move back into congestion over the next few weeks will be just fine. Let’s see what happens.

#earnings TSLA Sold Nov. 15,…

#earnings TSLA MMM PYPL TWTR
TSLA Sold Nov. 15, 210/300 strangle for 3.92, outside the max moves of the last 12 quarters as always, thanks Jeff for the data.
MMM bought 167.50 #doublecalendar for 1.02
PYPL sold reverse jade lizard/iron condor +95p/-96 put/-99c/+105c, Nov. 15 for 2.03, stock at 96
TWTR sold Oct 25, 38 straddle/Dec. 20 34/42 strangle for 5.99, #tastytradefollow
I’m getting up early in the morning.

FFIV earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 24, 2019 AC -0.65%
April 24, 2019 AC -1.08%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +9.57% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 4.46%
Bias -0.86%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 139.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.49 to 146.51
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 132.80 to 145.20
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 125.70 to 152.30
Based on DOWN max only (-8.3%): 127.53

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

#earnings XLNX Sold Nov. 15,…

#earnings XLNX

Sold Nov. 15, 83/105 strangle for 2.25
Thanks for the data Jeff

WHR closed

#Earnings Sold to close $WHR Oct25/Nov01 160 #DoubleCalendar for 1.90. Bought yesterday for .77

Closing UNH

Bought to close $UNH 12/20 230 put @ 2.69. Sold for 6.80 on 10/16. Thanks again @jsd501.

#earnings FFIV Sold Nov. 15…

#earnings FFIV

Sold Nov. 15 125/150 strangle for 2.07

#SPX Morning. Been a while….

#SPX Morning. Been a while. Actually a long while. I’ve been getting the income portfolio set and deciding on whether and where to go next. Individual stocks, options, index spreads or even nothing at all. Spreads look to be the winner. Just can’t seem to master that swing trade / short term trade mind set. And rattling my cage, working in the garden, pulling weeds and walking the dog just doesn’t satisfy this old researcher’s mind. So I’ll see how this goes. Closed my two SPX call spreads, Oct 25th 3040/3050 and Oct 28th 3045/3055 this morning for 60% profits. Hopefully I can get WordPress to behave a little better using Firefox.

E dub dub cal

#Earnings Bought $EW Oct25/Nov01 222.5p/225c #DoubleCalendar for 1.60.

XLNX earnings analysis

#Earnings $XLNX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 24, 2019 AC -3.44%
April 24, 2019 AC -17.07% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 23, 2019 AC +18.43% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +15.00%
July 25, 2018 AC +9.59%
April 25, 2018 AC +1.69%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.08%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC -0.12%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.26%
April 26, 2017 AC +7.35%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -3.67%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +0.96%

Avg (+ or -) 7.06%
Bias 1.78%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 95.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 87.54 to 102.46
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 88.30 to 101.70
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.4%): 77.49 to 112.51
Based on UP max only (-17.1%): 78.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

ALGN earnings analysis

#Earnings $ALGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 24, 2019 AC -26.98% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -0.11%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +4.86%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -20.20%
July 25, 2018 AC -4.91%
April 25, 2018 AC +5.80%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC -2.99%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +16.23% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC +10.04%
April 27, 2017 AC +12.09%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +6.06%
Nov. 7, 2016 AC +1.05%

Avg (+ or -) 9.28%
Bias 0.08%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 215.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 190.68 to 239.32
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 195.06 to 234.94
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.0%): 156.99 to 273.01
Based on UP max only (+16.2%): 249.89

Open to requests for other symbols.

EW earnings analysis

#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 23, 2019 AC +9.93%
April 23, 2019 AC -1.79%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 6.70%
Bias -2.56%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 225.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 211.82 to 238.18
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 209.92 to 240.08
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 186.55 to 263.45
Based on UP max only (+10.5%): 248.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

TRTN Straddle

#shortstraddle

$TRTN STO 11/15 35 straddle at 2.45. Short call is covered.

TSLA earnings analysis

#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +0.87%

Avg (+ or -) 6.96%
Bias -1.51%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 252.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 232.19 to 272.81
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 234.94 to 270.06
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 211.65 to 293.35
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 218.13

Open to requests for other symbols.

SOXL

#ShortPuts – One of my best performers over the last year. Jumping back in here. One contract in two different accounts.

Sold SOXL NOV 15 2019 150.0 Put @ 4.90
Sold SOXL DEC 20 2019 125.0 Put @ 4.70

SOXL weeklies are on my Christmas wish list… 🙂 🙂

BA put spread

Sold $BA 11/15 330/320 bull put spread @ 1.85

IRBT

I closed out the 40 p[ut of the 40/70 strangle  for .45 cents. I will let the call side expire on November 15

#earnings #closing WHR Yesterday sold…

#earnings #closing WHR IRBT

WHR Yesterday sold Nov. 15, 140/175 strangle for 2.31, bought today for .90
IRBT Yesterday sold Nov. 15 40/70 strangle for 1.42, bought today for 55
Thanks for the earnings data Jeff