I Prefer The Pumpkins

I usually review the bistro with a cup of coffee. Tonight not sure what is giving me the shakes. 😉

#earnings GOOG #tastytradefollow Bought Nov….

#earnings GOOG SHOP
#tastytradefollow
GOOG Bought Nov. 1 put spread 1295/1297.50 for 1.25
GOOG Bought Nov. 1 call butterfly 1352.50/1357.50/1357.50/1362.50 for .17
SHOP Sold Dec. 20 250/260/405/415 #ironcondor for 2.15

A TRADE: Slow day for me.

GOOS STO 11/1/19 42.50 CALLS @.70. Will cover if necessary.

NOK Short Put

#shortputs

$NOK STO 1/2020 $4 put at .47. Might get into a 5G upside or make 31% in less than 3 months.

SHOP

#CoveredCalls #Earnings – SHOP reports in the morning. I’m gonna try something different here just for fun. Sitting about breakeven on my stock/covered call and since these are fairly easy to roll in these expensive stocks I’m rolling the call down to the bottom of the expected move for max downside protection.

Stock rallies I’ll try to roll up and out. Stock tanks make some decent money with nice basis reduction…

Rolled SHOP NOV 01 2019 302.5 Call to NOV 01 2019 292.5 Call @ 7.50 credit (24.05 total premium now)

Call now sitting just below my new basis of 296.65.

BYND earnings analysis

#Earnings $BYND reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history, only 2 quarters.

July 29, 2019 AC -12.32%
June 6, 2019 AC +39.34%

Avg (+ or -) 25.83%
Bias 13.51%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 101.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 84.00 to 119.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 2 quarters: 75.47 to 128.03
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (39.3%): 61.72 to 141.78
Based on DOWN max only (-12.3%): 89.21

Open to requests for other symbols.

GOOGL earnings analysis

#Earnings $GOOGL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 25, 2019 AC +9.62% Biggest UP
April 29, 2019 AC -7.50% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 4, 2019 AC +0.91%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -1.79%
July 23, 2018 AC +3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +4.26%
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +0.27%

Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias -0.08%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 1,295.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1,234.29 to 1,355.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1,245.02 to 1,344.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 1,170.42 to 1,419.58
Based on DOWN max only (-7.5%): 1,197.88

Open to requests for other symbols.

TQQQ Rolled Again

#perpetualrollingstrangles
$TQQQ BTC 11/1 66 call and STO 11/15 69 call at debit of 1.13. Would gain $3 if called away. These sold against 60% of 1/2020 66.67 long calls. The long calls are now paid for. But who knows what the future brings. TQQQ at 69.51. I would roll again if an opportunity presents itself.

test

If this publishes then Edge on Windows is back working with optionsbistro.com

#assignment #earnings TWTR Following a…

#assignment #earnings TWTR
Following a trade that goes against what I am comfortable doing, sold an earnings weekly straddle along with a Dec. strangle, I was assigned at 38, no premium in rolling. I sold a Nov. 1, 31 covered call, cost basis is now 34.25 with stock at 30.