Stuff this week

Screen Shot 2019-10-15 at 12.49.13 PM
Screen Shot 2019-10-15 at 12.49.13 PM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=15&month=10&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 16th 2945/2955-3030/3040 condors for .45. 10-wide, double size.
IV 10.34%, SPX 2998.

Closing SPX iron condors

Bought to close Oct 21 2920/2895 put spread + 3035/3060 call spread @ 3.15. Sold for 7.40 on 10/11.
Bought to close Oct 23 2910/2885 put spread + 3045/3070 call spread @ 3.20. Sold for 7.00 on 10/11.

Whiz update

Take it for what it’s worth (free) but it is a nice look at some of the issues simmering below the headlines.

NUGT closed

#ContangoETFs BTC $NUGT Jan 2020 55 calls for .54. Sold for 3.20 on July 18th.

SOXL

#ShortPuts – Another one bites the dust…

Bought to Close SOXL OCT 18 2019 150.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 5.00)

SPY

#ShortPuts – Back at the 3000 level so buying all my SPY back in…

Bought to Close SPY NOV 15 2019 275.0 Put @ .46 (sold for 3.35)
Bought to Close SPY DEC 20 2019 260.0 Put @ .83 (sold for 3.20)

VXX

STC 2x Jan 20 20.00 for $2.03
total profit on this group $425.00

Thanks Jeff

UAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $UAL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 16, 2019 AC +0.91%
April 16, 2019 AC +4.77%
Jan. 15, 2019 AC +6.35%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%
Oct. 17, 2016 BO -0.31%

Avg (+ or -) 5.49%
Bias -0.17%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.43 to 91.57
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 82.69 to 92.31
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 76.94 to 98.06
Based on UP max only (+8.8%): 95.18

Open to requests for other symbols.

NVDA

#ShortPuts – Out a week early. Wouldn’t mind a pullback before earnings now…

Bought to Close NVDA OCT 25 2019 162.5 Put @ .10 (sold for 2.45)

#SueCollar Here’s a new one…

#SueCollar

Here’s a new one I just added, this one has less than zero risk at the onset–it’s hard to get this design but I really like it, call premium is elevated due to earnings the week before. Notice the tight put, less than $2 away from stock purchase price, at close to 1/3rd the call premium. Good risk control here. The put roll might be tricky though with earnings looming in the new roll cycle, but we’ll deal with that the week of Nov 8, if not sooner.

TGT
Bought 300 shares @ 111.84
Bought 3 Nov 8 110 put @ 1.65
Sold 3 Nov 29 112 Call @ 4.70

Initial max risk is -$363, meaning I make $363 on a crash in the initial timeframe (Nov 8 expiration).
Earnings 11/20, Ex div 11/19
update: one thing though, the delta on this is only 36 on 300 shares, that’s usually lower than I like, I like around 25-30% delta. I can always sell some put spreads to bump up the delta if I want.