DPZ earnings analysis

#Earnings $DPZ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 16, 2019 BO -8.66%
April 24, 2019 BO +4.89%
Feb. 21, 2019 BO -9.14%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO -4.87%
July 19, 2018 BO -2.44%
April 26, 2018 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Feb. 20, 2018 BO +0.33%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -3.73%
July 25, 2017 BO -10.08% Biggest DOWN
April 27, 2017 BO +2.53%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO +2.36%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +4.89%

Avg (+ or -) 5.10%
Bias -1.38%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 225.42 to 259.58
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 230.13 to 254.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.1%): 218.06 to 266.94
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 260.23

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 2830/2855-3005/3030 condors for 3.00, IV17.92%, SPX 2945.

WORK

#coveredcalls

Rolled $WORK Oct 18 2019 28 Calls // Nov 15 2019 30 @0.25. Basis at 37.82. Still chipping away.

TRADES:

HIIQ STO 10/18/19 24.0 PUTS @1.25 Want to own stock a little cheaper.
NTNX STO 10/11/19 27.0 CALLS .30
CHWY STO 10/11/19 27.0 CALLS @.35

#earnings #closing ROKU Finito May…

#earnings #closing ROKU Finito

May 8, I sold a June 21, 50/80 strangle. Anyone following ROKU knows it spent the summer going to 180 and fall falling back to 105 or so. After 6 adjustments and going inverted to 85/105, I closed the position this morning essentially breaking even-phew.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2885 puts for .05. Taking off downside risk, allowing remainder of condor to expire (sold Friday for 1.00)