Downside Warning canceled

#VIX indicator Well, so much for that. The VIX close today cancels the Downside Warning and we may be on the way to another Upside Warning. Let’s hope the signals work on the next round.

$SPX Closed Early / GLOB Put / HIIQ Calls Rolled

$SPX BTC 10/21 3035/3060 BECS at .60. STO 10/11 at 4.72. Thank you @Ramie. The put side of the IC still open.

$GLOB STO 11/15 90 put at 2.80. Tip of the hat to @Ramie

$HIIQ BTC 11/15 28 calls and STO 12/20 30 calls for added .15 debit.. Since September it has cost me $1.65 to roll from $20 covered call to current $30 covered call. Stock appears headed up. Stock now at 26.78.


BTC UVXY 10/18/2019 35/45 Nov 15 2019 #BeCS @0.4. Was STO 10/2 @1.65.

BTC SPLK 10/18/2019 105/115 #BuPS @0.35. This had been rolled from the Sept earnings trade. ~$1.20/share gain (though I don’t have my tracking spreadsheet in front of me at the moment)

BTC NUGT 10/18/2019 20/29.5 #BuPS @1.95. Basically break-even, but this was the second round on a double-dip.

Wanted to take some risk off today. Been thinking over Friday’s SPX 1-DTE trade a bunch over the weekend. Short version, my stops triggered, as Jeff’s did, but I didn’t get fills. I canceled the BTC order, and then spent the day sweating it out, hoping for a pullback to get out of the position, which didn’t happen until the last 15 minutes of the trading day. My position expired valueless over the weekend, but being frank, could just as easily have been a big loss, if SPX had swung ~15 up instead of ~15 down. Pretty much dumb luck, not smart trading. Really don’t know what I was thinking, if I was thinking at all, when I canceled the BTC order. Hope and Luck aren’t smart trading. I’m also going to put a pause on the SPX 1-DTE trades for a while.

#closing DUST In July I…

#closing DUST
In July I sold a couple 9 puts after DUST had dropped to around 12 from around 25. Dust kept going down into the 5s while I kept rolling the puts. I closed them today for a $35 loss, not bad given where it was.


STO November 15, 90 puts @ 2.75, stock is at 99

#earnings #jadelizard GS Jade lizard…

#earnings #jadelizard GS
Jade lizard with downside protection. Sold Nov. 15, 195 short put/205 short call/210 long call for 5.01. Bought Oct. 15, 195 put for .70.
Thanks for the data Jeff

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 16, 2019 BO +1.86%
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81%
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%

Avg (+ or -) 2.88%
Bias -0.12%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 205.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.11 to 211.89
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 199.10 to 210.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 185.44 to 224.56
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 195.34

I’m getting on a plane so won’t be able to do any others today; back tomorrow. Happy trading!