#SPX1dte I didn’t get what I wanted today and it’s just too risky to hold in this news-driven market with trade talks continuing into tomorrow. I think the most likely scenario is some partial deal that everyone gets excited about and the algos drive us higher, followed by a dump next week. But it’s just too uncertain (and ridiculous) to have on the risk.
BTC $SPX Oct 14th 2950/2975 call spreads for 9.55. Sold yesterday for 7.00.
#Futures – Just in case we get a trade deal might make a buck or two. Low risk…
Bought to Open /ES NOV 19 (Wk3) 3100.00 Call @2.40
The chart is starting to look intriguing for a fade (i.e., long nat gas) but strikes and expirations not actionable right now. Not much premium above 40 in November. If nat gas continues to be weak for the next couple of weeks, there may be a play in December (options will open up after October expiration next week). For now, Feb highest strike is 46 with the bid/ask really wide (1.00 x 5.70). Holding off but keeping an eye on it.
I trade a relatively small account and have never really traded cash-secured Puts before, so I decided to dip my toe into that as well as prepare to be assigned, since I’ve never gone down that road before. Here’s summary of trades since $SFIX earnings went down:
10/1 BTO Oct 11 $23.00 Call $1.40 Debit (Expiring worthless today)
10/2 STO Oct 4 $17.00 Put: $0.26 Credit
10/3 BTC Oct 4 $17.00 Put: $0.10 Debit
10/3 STO Oct 11 $17.50 Put: $0.55 Credit
10/4 BTC Oct 11 $17.50 Put: $0.25 Debit
10/4 STO Oct 11 $20.00 Put: $0.70 Credit
10/7 BTC Oct 11 $20.00 Put: $0.50 Debit
10/8 STO Oct 11 $19.50 Put: $0.42 Credit
10/9 BTC Oct 11 $19.50 Put: $0.15 Debit
10/10 Nov 15 Synthetic Long (ish): STO $20 Put/BTO $21 Call: $0.25 Net Debit (Stock right around $21.00 at time of trade)
Bullish on SFIX, price target for the next week or two will be $23.00. I’ll hold for at least a a week or until that hits and scoop a couple hundred out of it. Volume profile has a gap with some slight resistance at $23.00, but it’s pretty open until about $27.00.
Have a good weekend!
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 2835/2855-2990/3010 condors for 1.35, IV 21.30%, SPX 2934.
High IV, lots of news expected.