XBI

#ShortPuts – Adding…filled on the afternoon swoon.

Sold XBI NOV 01 2019 75.0 Put @ 2.10

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte . Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 2880/2905-3030/3055 condors for 2.40, IV: 14.37%, SPX 2981.

Expiring today: Sept 30th 2865/2885-3000/3020 condors, sold Friday for 1.10

LULU

STO $LULU 10/18/2019 175/185 #BuPS @1.45.

Taking profits on FDX

Bought to close 10/18 iron condor (130/140/160/170) @ 1.41. Sold for 2.52 on 9/18.

Closing PCTY Put

Closing $PCTY Nov 1 $80 Put for a scratch at $1.40.  Bought last week looking for a downward shift.  May revisit bearish play here, but looks like it needs more room to run up first.

Closing LULU 192.5 Call

STC $LULU Oct 18 $192.5 Call for $5.20.  Bought on Friday for $4.05.

#butterfly #hedge ROKU I have…

#butterfly #hedge ROKU

I have a long suffering, inverted, Oct. 18, 85/105 strangle that is approaching break even with ROKU dropping below 105 after rocketing to the moon. I sold a 97/99/99/100 put butterfly for .34 for a little upside protection.

SHOP

#CoveredCalls – Got some stock over the weekend. Sure looks like it’s headed to the 200ma so playing the call sale for quite a bit of downside protection. Earnings still about 3 weeks away so plenty of time to adjust before then.

Sold SHOP OCT 04 2019 295.0 Call @ 14.50

SPX 1-dte NUGT

#SPX1dte
STO $SPX Sept 30th 2870/2890-3000/3020 condors for 1.00
#optionsexpiration
$SPX Sept 27 2920/2935/3010/3025 – STO @.85 yesterday.

Was too early on this – closed before things really dropped:
BTC $NUGT Oct 04 35/40 Call Vertical @0.36 Was STO @0.86 on 9/20.

Rolled $NUGT Oct 4 30.5 Put // Oct 18 29.5 put @0.65, against existing 10/18 20 put #tripledip.

#earnings #closing MU June 25,…

#earnings #closing MU

June 25, sold a July 19, 29/37 strangle, adjusted it 3 times ending up in an Oct. 18, inverted 37/41 strangle as it climbed from around 32 to around 50. I closed it today, making $33.63.
Yesterday I sold a jade lizard in MU, the demise of which made the above possible. There is plenty of time to turn it around if it stabilizes.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 30th 2865/2885-3000/3025 condors for 1.10, IV 12.31%, SPX 2956.

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte. Bought to close $SPX Sept 27th 2935/2915 put spreads for .75. Condors sold yesterday for .95.

Closing Monday’s spread as well, and stuck with almost full loss on today’s spread.

LULU Oct 18 192.5 Call

BTO $LULU Oct 18 Call 192.5 at $4.05 – slightly Bullish, buying a call on dip today, looking to hold for a day or two and see what happens.  Probably close out at $100-200 profit if and when market wakes up after the last few down days.  No specific price target, looking for +$2-4 dollars in the underlying.  Have a good weekend!

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – Starter positions…

Sold UVXY NOV 15 2019 35.0/45.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.25
Sold UVXY NOV 15 2019 37.0/47.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.15
Sold UVXY DEC 20 2019 40.0/50.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.08 and 1.09

Following @Iceman with the shorter term put sales against the call spreads…

Sold UVXY OCT 4 2019 25.0 Puts @ .52

EWZ

#ShortPuts – Never got a chance to add to my starter position…

Bought to Close EWZ OCT 18 2019 36.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 1.05)

TRADES:

RAD BTC 10/4/19 9.0 CALLS @.08
OSTK STO 10/4/19 10.5 PUTS @.43
OSTK STO 10/4/19 12.5 CALLS @.45
CHWY STO 10/4/19 26.0 ATM CALLS @.70 An experiment, to see how it acts, and to keep an eye on it. Bearish trade. One contract only.

LABU

#CoveredCalls – More basis reduction on this pig. Still working on my last hundred shares.

Bought to Close LABU OCT 04 2019 38.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.10)
Sold LABU OCT 18 2019 34.0 Call @ 1.81

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 2915/2935-34010/3030 condors for .95, IV: 11.80%, SPX 2980.

A TRADE:

HIIQ STO 10/18/19 21.0 PUTS @1.10

A TRADE: STO this morning,…

A TRADE: STO this morning, @.30

RAD BTC 9/27/19 10.0 CALLS @.04

A TRADE:

BYND STO 10/4/19 160/165 BeCS @.74

#earnings #jadelizard MU Sold Oct….

#earnings #jadelizard MU
Sold Oct. 18, 37/41/46 jade lizard for 1.77. I have an inverted 37/41 Oct. 18 strangle and would prefer that MU go down.

TRADES: This morning was their earnings report.

RAD STO 9/27/19 10.0 CALLS @.30
RAD STO 9/27/19 9.0 ATM CALLS @.51

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC +7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC +12.68%
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%

Avg (+ or -) 6.74%
Bias 2.66%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 49.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 45.62 to 52.38
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.70 to 52.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 42.46 to 55.54
Based on DOWN max only (-8.0%): 45.08

Open to requests for other symbols.

REGN

#CoveredCalls – Breakout failed so rolling down to the 50ma for additional premium…

Rolled REGN OCT 11 2019 307.5 Call to OCT 11 2019 295.0 Call @ 2.15 credit (7.75 total now)

SPX Monday spread

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 30th 2895/2920-3030/3055 condors for 2.30, IV 11.97%, SPX 2986.

Expiring today: Sep 25th 2890/2910-3005/3025 condors, sold yesterday for .90.

Long put PCTY (First post)

BTO $PCTY Nov 15 Put @ 1.40

Bearish on this one due to Volume Profile and software in general.  Price target for next couple of weeks would be $90 – roughly a 100% return.  Volume profile has resistance at $85-80 and a huge open gap until about $63.00 or so.pcty 9-25

Thanks for the add Jeff, and thanks to everyone else for the great ideas over the years!  Looking to learn and contribute as much as possible!

SBUX

I forgot to post yesterday. BTO October 90 put at 1.95because I see the chart breaking down.

AMZN

STO 1850/1860 bear call spread at 1.55 the stock is breaking down and below the 200 day MA. Also, just bought the 1730/1710 bear call spread at 8.25on 1 contract.

SPLK

BTC $SPLK 10/18/2019 125 put @ 8.8. Basically breakeven on this after a couple adjustments, but wanted to reduce risk.

Still holding $SPLK 105/115 #BuPS.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 25th 2890/2910-3005/3025 condors for .90, IV: 14.73%, SPX 2965.

SPX slap

#SPX1dte. I had an order in to close this for .95 this morning. It got down to about 1.20 before the drop happened.

BTC $SPX Sep 25th 2980/2955 put spreads for 9.85. Sold for 3.00 yesterday.

Sitting on the Sept 27th 3000/2975 put spread, sold for 5.00 last week. I’m giving that some more time. If formal impeachment inquiries are announced today, I think there’s a chance the market effect will be temporary, as the process will take months, and who really knows how it would effect the economy? But certainly, I’m done with the aggressive put spreads for now.

NKE earnings analysis

#Earnings $NKE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 27, 2019 AC +0.34%
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61%
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%

Avg (+ or -) 4.48%
Bias 0.67%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.82 to 91.68
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 83.34 to 91.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 77.55 to 96.95
Based on DOWN max only (-7.1%): 81.10

Open to requests for other symbols.

Heavy news day

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

UVXY Nov

Sold $UVXY 11/15 35/45 bear call spread @ 1.21

No Upside

#VIXIndicator. This Upside Warning looks to be a dud. After it fired on Thursday’s close, we only got a 0.3% intraday bump on Friday, then it’s been all lower. There’s never been a pullback this strong on an Upside Warning that ended up bouncing and coming through. This is the 43rd UpW since I started tracking in 2000, but only the fourth to not register any significant higher price after firing.

KMX closed

#Earnings. Sold to close $KMX Sept 27/Oct04 86 #DoubleCalendar for 1.01 – 1.05, and the stock price hovered around the strike price. Bought yesterday for .48. Meanwhile, hell breaks loose.

XBI

#ShortPuts – Starting a brand new position…

Sold XBI OCT 18 2019 78.0 Puts @ 1.55

#fallingknife ROKU ROKU now below…

#fallingknife ROKU

ROKU now below 100, had touched 176 on September 9.

NUGT

Rolled $NUGT 9/27 35/40 #BeCS // 10/4, same strikes @0.15 credit.

#earnings #closing KMX Sold double…

#earnings #closing KMX

Sold double calendar for 1.03, bought yesterday for .38, thanks Jeff.

FND

STO October 18, 50 puts @ 1.55, this is a SMM trade that they like but I missed the proper entry so decided to sell puts.

NUGT HIIQ Rolled

#coveredcalls
$NUGT BTC 10/18 36 call and STO 10/25 38 call for .30 debit
$HIIQ BTC 10/18 25 call and STO 11/15 28 call for .40 credit

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 25th 2980/2955 put spreads for 3.00.

Expiring today:
Sept 23rd 2930/2940-3035/3045, sold Friday for .50
Sept 23rd 2915/2940-3050/3075, sold Wednesday for 2.65

#earnings #rolling FDX Rolled Oct….

#earnings #rolling FDX

Rolled Oct. 18, 190 call to 150 for 2.36, making a straddle, collected 4.46 total. FDX is down around 146 today.

KMX earnings analysis and trade

#Earnings $KMX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 21, 2019 BO +3.18%
March 29, 2019 BO +9.61%
Dec. 21, 2018 BO +3.94%
Sept. 26, 2018 BO -1.60%
June 22, 2018 BO +12.86%
April 4, 2018 BO +4.61%
Dec. 21, 2017 BO -3.60%
Sept. 22, 2017 BO +7.77%
June 21, 2017 BO +0.80%
April 6, 2017 BO +2.36%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +6.09%
Sept. 21, 2016 BO -2.04%

Avg (+ or -) 4.87%
Bias 3.67%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

NOTE: The 5-day results are still bullish, but less so, as extreme one-day up moves tended to fade over the following days.

With stock at 86.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 79.60 to 92.40
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 81.81 to 90.19
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 74.94 to 97.06
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 82.90

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

AZO earnings analysis

#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 21, 2019 BO +5.56%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%

Avg (+ or -) 4.88%
Bias -1.84%, negative bias on earnings.

NOTE: The 5-day results are more bullish, as extreme one-day down moves tended to fade over the following days.
5-day bias is +0.80%

With stock at 1152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1081.01 to 1223.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1096.22 to 1208.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 1016.04 to 1288.96
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 1230.18

Open to requests for other symbols.

UUP closed

#LongCalls On July 29th I bought $UUP Sept 20th 26 calls for .72. UUP price was 26.58 on that day. I forgot to close Friday so I was assigned, and I just sold the stock for 26.88.

So I had the direction right, but this thing only moves a few pennies in weeks, so profit of .16 on the trade.

NUGT WORK STZ

Rolled $NUGT 9/27 30 Puts // 10/4 30.5 puts @.50 Credit against existing 10/18 20 puts
Rolled down 10/18 $WORK 10/18/2019 40 Calls // 10/18/2019 28 Calls @.57. #CoveredCalls.
STO $STZ 180/190/220/230 10/18/2019 #IC @2.25. Earnings 10/3. Short options at ~20 delta.

Direxion

Upcoming ETF Distributions

Direxion will pay income distributions on select funds according to the following schedule:

  • Ex-Date: 9/24/2019
  • Record Date:  9/25/2019
  • Pay Date: 10/1/2019

Options Expiration

#optionsexpiration

$ADBE 9/20 292.5/302.5 #BeCS – STO 9/11 @1.31 as part of a #IronCondor.
$TSLA 9/20 220/230 #BuPS – STO 9/12 @0.74
$SPX 9/20 2950/2965/3040/3055 #IC STO 9/19 @0.80.

Expirations

#optionsexpiration
#spxcampaign
$SPX 2895/2920/3050/3070 STO at 2.40. Thank you @jeff

$TSLA 220/230 BECS at max loss
$BYND 160/170 BECS STO at 1.30
$TQQQ 65 calls Covered by leaps
$EXAS 109 call Covered
$TRTN 30 put

Rolled $NUGT Puts

#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 9/27 34 put and STO 10/18 31 put for added .53 credit.

Rolling last Sep NUGT position

Rolled $NUGT 9/20 31 calls out to 10/18 31 calls @ 1.85 credit

ADBE BUPS Closed

#bups
$ADBE BTC 9/20 270/280 BUPS at .40. STO at 2.88 on 8/26

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 2930/2940-3035/3045 condors for .50, 10-pt wings, double size.
IV: 9.31%, SPX 3000

Expiring today: Sept 20th 2940/2960-3045/3065, sold yesterday for .75
Sept 20th 2895/2920-3050/3075, sold Monday for 2.45

REGN

#CoveredCalls – Quick pullback helped a little. Trying to give this some room in case the breakout is real. Earnings not until first week of Nov.

Rolled REGN SEP 20 2019 292.5 Call to OCT 11 2019 307.5 Call @ .80 credit

NUGT

STO $NUGT 35/40 9/27/2019 #BeCS @.85

Econ Calendar for week of 9/23/19

GDP Thursday morning

Screen Shot 2019-09-13 at 10.34.07 AM
Screen Shot 2019-09-13 at 10.34.07 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=23&month=9&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Closing NFLX

As promised, BTC $NFLX 10/11 250/240 bull put spread @ 1.60. Small loss (sold for 1.41 a little while ago).

SPX adding call spread

#SPX1dte Using this Montana dip to add another long… 10 points lower and another day later than yesterday’s:

Bought to Open $SPX Sept 30th 3035/3050 call spreads for 2.50. SPX at 2994.

I would like to have seen Montana

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

NFLX put spread

I may be a bit early but STO $NFLX 10/11 250/240 bull put spread @ 1.41. I will have this on a very short leash–if we break lower again below today’s LOD of 268.00 I will close this and get out of the way. 10/11 expiration (weekly) to avoid earnings on 10/16.

OSTK

#CoveredCalls
STO 10.18.2018 $OSTK 20 calls @0.95

FDX

BTC the 190 calls at .01 but, still short the 150 puts for October 18. This was not as bad as the ULTA trade.

NVDA

#ShortPuts – Needing a pullback in this one to get a better roll for my covered call. What better way to get a pullback than to add a bullish position? 🙂 🙂 . Selling near the 200ma and two weeks before earnings…

Sold NVDA OCT 25 2019 162.5 Put @ 2.45

NFLX

BTC NFLX 9/20 165/175 #BuPS @1.28. Was STO 8/12 @1.42. Stock at 276.50 or so.

Is frustrating as this was ~@0.05 yesterday at the close. Looks like there was unfavorable analyst news out this morning which caused the underlying to tank. How convenient.

Upside Warning in effect

#VIXIndicator Look for higher prices over the next couple of weeks.

Thinning some more NUGT

Bought to close 9/20 35 calls @ .12. Sold for 1.40 on 6/20.
My only remaining September position is short 31 calls which I’m leaving on into tomorrow’s expiration to see if a move down will allow me to take them off for a profit. If not, I’ll roll them to October.

The rest of my positions (that weren’t closed for a profit) have been rolled out. In addition to the above I am now short 10/18 27 calls, 10/18 32 calls and 12/20 53 calls.

GDXJ strangle

Still high IV in gold. Sold $GDXJ (junior miners ETF) 10/18 35/42 strangle @ .79 credit. Probability of profit 68%.

#closing ROKU 1 down, 1…

#closing ROKU

1 down, 1 to go. August 7, sold a 60/140 strangle with ROKU around 100, it peaked around 173. Three adjustments resulted in a 140 straddle. I was able to exit with a $12.00 gain.
I still have another ROKU position that started as a 50/80 earnings strangle from May which isn’t looking very good lately.

Upside Warning / Risk Reversal

#SPX1dte #VIXIndicator As an Upside Warning is preparing to fire today (VIX close below 14.50), I’m doing this Risk Reversal for next Friday. I will add more to the long if we get a pullback tomorrow or Monday.

Bought to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3045/3060 bull call spreads for 2.40.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3000/2975 put spreads for 5.80.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 20th 2940/2960-3045/3065 condors for .75, IV 12.64%, SPX 3011.

STNE

I am finally able to log in. Yesterday I STO the October 18, 36 puts for 1.85 and today I bought the November 50 calls on DHI for 2.75, the stock is at 51.05

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads #ContangoETFs – C’mon Mr. Market give us a chance to re-load. Never got a chance to add much to these.

Bought to Close UVXY OCT 18 2019 50.0/60.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .10 (sold for 1.25)