BTC $SPLK 10/18/2019 125 put @ 8.8. Basically breakeven on this after a couple adjustments, but wanted to reduce risk.

Still holding $SPLK 105/115 #BuPS.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 25th 2890/2910-3005/3025 condors for .90, IV: 14.73%, SPX 2965.

SPX slap

#SPX1dte. I had an order in to close this for .95 this morning. It got down to about 1.20 before the drop happened.

BTC $SPX Sep 25th 2980/2955 put spreads for 9.85. Sold for 3.00 yesterday.

Sitting on the Sept 27th 3000/2975 put spread, sold for 5.00 last week. I’m giving that some more time. If formal impeachment inquiries are announced today, I think there’s a chance the market effect will be temporary, as the process will take months, and who really knows how it would effect the economy? But certainly, I’m done with the aggressive put spreads for now.

NKE earnings analysis

#Earnings $NKE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 27, 2019 AC +0.34%
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61%
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%

Avg (+ or -) 4.48%
Bias 0.67%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.82 to 91.68
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 83.34 to 91.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 77.55 to 96.95
Based on DOWN max only (-7.1%): 81.10

Open to requests for other symbols.

Heavy news day



Sold $UVXY 11/15 35/45 bear call spread @ 1.21

No Upside

#VIXIndicator. This Upside Warning looks to be a dud. After it fired on Thursday’s close, we only got a 0.3% intraday bump on Friday, then it’s been all lower. There’s never been a pullback this strong on an Upside Warning that ended up bouncing and coming through. This is the 43rd UpW since I started tracking in 2000, but only the fourth to not register any significant higher price after firing.

KMX closed

#Earnings. Sold to close $KMX Sept 27/Oct04 86 #DoubleCalendar for 1.01 – 1.05, and the stock price hovered around the strike price. Bought yesterday for .48. Meanwhile, hell breaks loose.


#ShortPuts – Starting a brand new position…

Sold XBI OCT 18 2019 78.0 Puts @ 1.55

#fallingknife ROKU ROKU now below…

#fallingknife ROKU

ROKU now below 100, had touched 176 on September 9.