STX TNA ULTA

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Was busy all day (and night) on Friday. Drove non-stop from St. Louis to Ft. Lauderdale thinking I might have to evacuate the motorhome. Things are looking better now but still watching closely. Did manage to get a few fills on Friday.

STX: Book ’em!

Bought to Close STX SEP 20 2019 40.0 Puts @ .10 (sold for .80)

TNA: Book, re-sell, and roll

Bought to Close TNA AUG 30 2019 53.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for 2.95)
Sold TNA SEP 06 2019 52.5 Calls @ 1.76

Rolled TNA AUG 30 2019 51.5 Call to SEP 06 2019 52.5 Call @ .20 credit

ULTA: She’s ugly. Didn’t see a 5x expected move coming. Time to start digging out!

Sold ULTA SEP 13 2019 265.0 Call @ 2.80

$ULTA iron condor

With the stock down 30% and IV still high (IVR 58), selling some premium down here. Sold 9/20 210/220/260/270 iron condor @ 2.60 with the stock at 239.70. Put and call short strikes at 21 and 17 delta. Not expecting a huge bounce back–looking for the stock to flounder around in this 20 dollar range for a while and for premium to bleed out over the next week or so.

AMBA miss

#Earnings. Wrong about the trade, but right about it being low probability.
Closed call side of $AMBA Aug30/Sept06 46.5 #DoubleCalendar for .00 to avoid assignment. Bought yesterday for .369

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 3rd 2820/2840-2975/2995 condors for 1.60. IV: 13.48%, SPX: 2923

Expiring: Aug 30th 2845/2865-2955/2975 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.

Econ Calendar for week of 9/2/19

#Jobs report is Friday, 8:30am ET

Screen Shot 2019-09-04 at 7.03.30 AM
Screen Shot 2019-08-30 at 8.26.07 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=2&month=9&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff, downloaded desktop app and…

Jeff, downloaded desktop app and now seems to be OK, Thanks

Test

Test, Wow it worked??

#closing TRTN Bought Sept. 20,…

#closing TRTN

Bought Sept. 20, 30 put for .45, sold for 90 on Aug. 26. You guys will have to recalculate the RoR on that.
Thanks always to Tabortrader for this ticker.
It’s ex-div on Sept. 4, .52 dividend.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte. Sold to Open Aug 30th $SPX 2845/2865-2955/2975 condors for 1.10. Was on the road, so stopped in time to place order just after market close.

Taking profits on DIS

Bought to close $DIS 9/20 130/120 bull put spread @ .40. Sold for 1.57 on 8/7.

#tastytradefollow GLD Sold Oct. 18,…

#tastytradefollow GLD

Sold Oct. 18, 128/138/149/159 #ironcondor for 1.86. GLD down a little to 144.

ULTA

#Earnings #JadeLizards – I only allow myself one of these high dollar stocks at a time in this account but with my ISRG lizard being blown out to the upside (465/495/500) it’s pretty safe so taking a shot with ULTA.

Sold ULTA AUG 30 2019 315.0/345.0/350.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.76

Put side at the expected move and just under the 200ma…

OLLI Another Fine Mess I am Getting Into?

#bucs
$OLLI BTO 9/20 55/60 BUCS at 2.95

#bups
$OLLI STO 9/20 55/60 BUPS at 2.03

AMBA earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMBA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 4, 2019 AC +0.07%
March 5, 2019 AC +3.74%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +18.48% Biggest UP
Aug. 30, 2018 AC -3.62%
June 5, 2018 AC -12.93%
March 1, 2018 AC +13.46%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +14.29%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC -22.35% Biggest DOWN
June 6, 2017 AC -10.24%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -4.42%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -11.27%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -6.67%

Avg (+ or -) 10.13%
Bias -1.79%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 46.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 42.36 to 50.64
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 41.79 to 51.21
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (22.4%): 36.11 to 56.89
Based on UP max only (+18.5%): 55.09

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

ULTA earnings analysis

#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 30, 2019 AC +1.50%
March 14, 2019 AC +8.28% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.12% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC +7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13%
May 25, 2017 AC +3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC +4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -6.11%

Avg (+ or -) 5.53%
Bias -0.26%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 115.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 311.92 to 358.08
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 310.30 to 346.62
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 285.37 to 371.55
Based on UP max only (+8.3%): 355.66

Open to requests for other symbols.

ANF closing

#Earnings. closed first batch of $ANF 16.5 puts for 2.00. Long Strangles bought yesterday for 2.50. Waiting to see if we might drop further.

#earnings #closing FIVE Bought 105/120/121…

#earnings #closing FIVE

Bought 105/120/121 #jadelizard 1.00, sold yesterday for 2.20.

I was considering a 100/140 strangle yesterday. There wasn’t much liquidity at those strikes and it would now take awhile to close with the big up move. Jade Lizard wins this one.
Thanks to fuzzball for starting me thinking about using these for earnings.

ANF

STC 16.5/17 strangle for a loss of 1.05 but, the Jade lizard on FIVE should cover that loss.

Good morning from Seattle

#Markets Opening was highest $TICK since Feb 2018. Is it over?

#earnings #jadelizard FIVE Sold Sept….

#earnings #jadelizard FIVE

Sold Sept. 20, 105/120/121 for 2.20

Volatility

Could be coming in a bit. Maybe it will bleed some more option premium out before the 3 day weekend. Of course you have to allow for 3 days of tweets so you never know. The front end of the curve (http://vixcentral.com/) is surprisingly back in contango although the rest of the curve is still a mess. Watching closely, obviously 🙂

Shopify call spread

$SHOP looking like it’s peaked at least in the short term after a nice runup. Printing a red candle today. Sold 9/20 420/430 bear call spread @ 2.36 with the stock around 392.

#earnings #closing TIF ADSK bought…

#earnings #closing TIF ADSK

bought ADSK, Sept. 20, 125/175 strangle for 1.00, sold yesterday for 2.44
bought TIF, Sept. 20, 75/84/85 #jadelizard .95, sold yesterday for 1.57.
SPLK still refusing to cooperate from earnings the other day grrr
As always, thanks to Jeff for the data that guides the trade decisions.

SPX 5-dte

#SPX1dte. Sold $SPX 2760/2785-2950/2975 condors for 3.00, IV: 16.78%, SPX 2884

UVXY call spread

Sold 10/18 45/55 bear call spreads @ 1.27

ANF long strangle

#earnings. Bought to open $ANF Aug 30th 16.5/17 long strangles for 2.50.

ANF earnings analysis

#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 29, 2019 BO -26.46% Biggest DOWN
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30%

Avg (+ or -) 16.96%
Bias 2.56%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 16.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.99 to 19.21
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 13.79 to 19.41
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.5%): 12.21 to 20.99
Based on UP max only (+23.9%): 20.57

Open to requests for other symbols.

FIVE earnings analysis

#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight (added late, so I missed it on the calendar). Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 5, 2019 AC -1.00%
March 27, 2019 AC +8.15%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%

Avg (+ or -) 6.45%
Bias 5.00%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 115.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 105.84 to 124.16
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 107.58 to 122.42
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 89.86 to 140.14
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 111.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 4-dte closed early

#SPX1dte. BTC $SPX Aug 30th 2745/2765-2935/2955 condors for .85. Sold Monday for 3.00.

Today’s 2780/2800-2920/2940 condors look good to expire, sold yesterday for 1.00.

TIF closing

#Earnings. Closed first batch for 1.00. $TIF Aug30/Sep06 85 #DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for .48.

DRIP roll

With oil continuing to be so weak and the inverse ETF not coming in ($DRIP currently at 119), I rolled my 9/20 115 call up and out to 10/18 130 call @ 1.21 credit. Up 15 points on the strike and out of the money by around 10 points.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 28th 2780/2800-2920/2940 condors for 1.00. IV 17.96%, SPX 2871.

WYNN

#CoveredCalls – Another one…

Bought to Close WYNN AUG 30 2019 112.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.20)
Sold WYNN SEP 13 2019 108.0 Call @ 2.50

Collected the 1.00 divvy today also…

A TRADE:

OSTK STO 8/30/19 16.5 PUTS @.80

VXX added

#VXXGame. Bought $VXX Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.00, adding to my position. Avg price now 1.302, started on Jan 22nd, 2019.

TRADES:

OSTK BTO STOCK @16.93
OSTK STO 8/30/19 17.0 CALLS @.80

#earnings #jadelizard TIF Sold Sept….

#earnings #jadelizard TIF #shortstrangles ADSK

TIF sold Sept. 20, 75/84/85 for 1.58.
ADSK sold Sept. 20, 125/175 strangle for 2.44
Thanks for the data Jeff.

TRADES:

PLAN BTO STOCK @54.99 & 56.40
OSTK STO 8/30/19 19.0 CALLS @.50

TIF earnings analysis

#Earnings $TIF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 4, 2019 BO +2.59%
March 22, 2019 BO +3.14%
Nov. 28, 2018 BO -11.82% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 BO +0.99%
May 23, 2018 BO +23.28% Biggest UP
March 16, 2018 BO -5.06%
Nov. 29, 2017 BO -1.58%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO -1.31%
May 24, 2017 BO -8.70%
March 17, 2017 BO +2.71%
Nov. 29, 2016 BO +3.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +6.40%

Avg (+ or -) 5.89%
Bias 1.15%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 85.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 78.66 to 91.34
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 79.99 to 90.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.3%): 65.21 to 104.79
Based on DOWN max only (-11.8%): 74.95

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

ADSK earnings analysis

#Earnings $ADSK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 23, 2019 AC -4.90%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -1.98%
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +9.74%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +15.32% Biggest UP
May 24, 2018 AC -4.44%
March 6, 2018 AC +14.87%
Nov. 28, 2017 AC -15.85% Buggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +3.94%
May 18, 2017 AC +14.69%
March 2, 2017 AC -2.29%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC -3.52%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC +8.11%

Avg (+ or -) 8.30%
Bias 2.81%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 137.13 to 162.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.54 to 162.46
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 126.23 to 173.78
Based on UP max only (+15.3%): 172.98

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 30th 2745/2765-2935/2955 condors for 3.00. IV 21.3%, SPX 2867.

Annualized returns?

How the heck are they calculated on a put sale? Since I’m really bored today I tried to put this in writing. I’m not the greatest math guy out there so absolutely looking for corrections and errors here.

This assumes 100 percent cash secured required like in a typical tax deferred retirement account.

————————————————————————————–

Calculating Annualized Returns On A Put Sale

(Strike Price x 100) – Premium Received = Margin Required

then:

Premium Received / Margin Required = Actual Return

then:

365 / Days in Position = Possible Trades Per year

then:

Possible Trades Per Year x Actual Return = Annualized Return

EWZ example:

3600 – 105 = 3495 (margin required)

then:

105 / 3495 = .0300429 (return for 53 day trade)

then:

365 / 53 = 6.8867924 (possible trades per year)

then:

.0300429 x 6.8867924 = .2068992 (annualized return)

20.7 annualized rounded

#earnings #closing CRM August 22,…

#earnings #closing CRM

August 22, sold a 125/165 stranle for 1.38, bought today for 1.05.

SPX

BTC $SPX 2940/2950 8/30 #BeCS @.90. Basis was $2.00 after a couple of rolls. Glad to have the buying power back.

EWZ

#ShortPuts – Starter position…

Sold EWZ OCT 18 2019 36.0 Put @ 1.05

20.7% annualized if held to expiration…

#ironcondor AAPL Sold Oct. 18,…

#ironcondor AAPL

Sold Oct. 18, 180/190/220/230 for 3.76

#earnings MOMO Jeff do you…

#earnings MOMO

Jeff do you have MOMO info? Thank you

HD – Close

BTC $HD 1.925 Puts @0.4 – was the put side of a #jadelizard #earnings trade which was STO @1.84 on 8/19/2019.

SPX 1-dte remove risk

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 26th 2755 put for .05. Don’t trust downside… just a tweet or Chinese government statement away from 100-pt drop!

2735/2755-2915/2935 condors sold for 1.30 on Friday.

WYNN

#CoveredCalls – Another round…

Bought to Close WYNN AUG 30 2019 115.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.54)
Sold WYNN SEP 13 2019 110.0 Call @ 2.49

#shortputs TRTN Sold Sept. 20,…

#shortputs TRTN
Sold Sept. 20, 30 put for .90

SPX

Rolled 8/23/2019 $SPX 2935/2945 #BuCS for 8/30 same strikes +@0.60. Jumped too soon, but wasn’t sure where things were going this morning, and didn’t want to be caught ITM. Have been kicking this can down the road for a while. $2.00 basis after today’s roll, and mark closed at $1.075. Could/should have waited until after lunch, and then just let it expire.

Sold today & Expiring $SPX 8/23/2019 2880/2895 #BuCS @1.10.

Hoping for a quiet news weekend and some recovery next week. Not holding my breath though.

Downside Warning again

#VIXindicator This is one of the more whipsaw-y corrections I can remember. Today was our fifth warning. I don’t think the bottom is in yet, but betting on that after the Aug 14th warning got me ripped up as the bounce was strong and protracted. (arrows represent the 4 Downside Warnings)

Screen Shot 2019-08-23 at 1.30.37 PM

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte. The market was so volatile before the close I waited until after the close to sell this.

Sold $SPX Aug 26th 2735/2755-2915/2935 condors for 1.30. IV 17.82%, SPX closed at 2848.

Rough week

Even though I ended the week with a couple of decent earnings trades (INTU and GPS), I took a pretty big hit on poorly managed SPX spreads in the whipsaw, and also a week-ending surge in NUGT and DRIP.

Expiring at max profit:
$GPS 15.5/20 strangles, sold yesterday for .62

Almost expired at max profit
$SPX 2915/2940-2980/3005 condors, sold for 2.90 on Monday. I closed the short puts for .30 in the last minute because I couldn’t trust it.

Expiring at max loss:
$SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly, bought for 2.02 on Wednesday

CRM

Got out of my 125/165 spread for an .05 profit  for September 20 expiration. I think the charts look really ugly.

INTC closed

#PieTrades. Another one I’m closing with only minor loss, as I don’t want to deal with ITM naked puts or stock holdings in this market.

BTC $INTC Sep 6th 46 puts for 1.61. Sold for 1.49 on Aug 12th.

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – Adding one…

Sold UVXY OCT 18 2019 50.0/60.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.25

KHC puts & stock closed

#PieTrades BTC $KHC Aug 23rd 27 puts for 1.45.

That is only a third of my position; the other third was assigned. I was set to allow all of it to be assigned, but rather not carry burden of stock. So also unloaded the stock. Since I sold the puts for 1.23 on Aug 8th, this is closing at almost breakeven.

Sold to close $KHC stock for 25.58. Cost basis 25.67.

ISRG

#JadeLizard – Out a couple weeks for another try. Selling put side at the expected move.

Sold ISRG SEP 6 2019 465.0/495.0/500.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.50

SPX smackdown

#SPX1dte. Didn’t follow my rules rigidly enough and waited too long to close these. May mean I got out near the bottom rather than when stops were first hit, when I could have gotten out when SPX was around 2888.

BTC $SPX Aug 23rd 2860/2840 put spreads for 5.60. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10.
BTC $SPX Aug 26th 2845/2820 put spreads for 6.75. Condors sold Wednesday for 3.15

I went past my stops on Wednesday on the up side, when SPX just couldn’t get any higher after briefly touching 2930. But the call side premium is much lower when almost ATM on expiration day than put side is, so it’s less risky. That one expired worthless. This one may, too, but after missing fills on every bounce before this, I couldn’t risk another tweet-driven violent drop.

Econ Calendar for week of 8/26/19

Screen Shot 2019-08-23 at 10.36.47 AM
Screen Shot 2019-08-23 at 10.36.47 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=26&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

ISRG TNA

#JadeLizards #CoveredCalls – Sometimes I wish our fearless leader would put down the twitter machine for awhile. The timing of the tweet earlier cost me at least 2 grand on these positions. It really is a strange world we trade in these days. Booking and rolling…

Bought to Close ISRG AUG 23 2019 495.0/500.0/505.0 Jade Lizard @ 7.90 (sold for 11.95)

Rolled TNA AUG 23 2019 52.0 Calls to AUG 30 2019 53.5 Calls @ .10 credit

INTU closing

#Earnings It would have been a good exit right at the open, but now we’re getting a second shot as price retreats.

Sold to close in phases: .90, 1.20, then when I realized it could drop, I waited for 2.20 on the most recent batch. Now watching to see how much lower it will go for my final lots, driving the premium higher as it gets closer to flat-on-day.

#DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for 1.69.

TNDM Short Puts

#shortputs
$TNDM STO 8/30 67 puts at 1.60

Close ISRG Jade Lizard / Close OKTA Puts

#jadelizard
$ISRG BTC 8/23 500/505/485 jade lizard for 1.60. STO at 5.67. Thank you @fuzzballl

#shortputs
$OKTA BTC 8/23 135 put at .40. STO 8/14 at 5.60

SPLK

Non-earnings #JadeLizards – Good premium so giving it a short term shot…

Sold SPLK SEP 13 2019 116.0/124.0/127.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.25

SPLK Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizards – Taking this off on the bounce for a small gain. Great premium so looking to re-establish a non-earnings Jade lizard now…

Bought to Close SPLK AUG 23 2019 122.0/131.0/134.0 Jade Lizard @ 2.60 (sold for 3.31)

#bups

#closing TSLA Finally May 10,…

#closing TSLA Finally

May 10, sold a June 21, 190/280 strangle. Through numerous adjustments it ended up as a Sept. 20, 185/200 inverted strangle. I took in $4,163 in premium. Bought today for $4,143, freeing up about 8k in margin, whew.

#earnings #closing GPS Bought 17/18…

#earnings #closing GPS
Bought 17/18 strangle for 1.42, sold yesterday for 2.22. Thanks for the data Jeff.

Consent de’CREE

#Earnings. I must consent that this trade failed.
Paid .01 to close $CREE 58.5 Aug23/Aug30 put calendar. Leaving call side to expire, and be a lottery ticket for next week. #DoubleCalendar bought Tuesday for .67.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 23rd 2840/2860-2965/2985 condors for 1.05, IV: 15.95%, SPX 2924.

GPS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GPS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 30, 2019 AC -9.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +4.66%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC -8.60%
May 24, 2018 AC -14.56%
March 1, 2018 AC +7.82%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +6.98%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC -0.13%
May 18, 2017 AC -3.92%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +3.04%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC -16.60% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 18, 2016 AC +3.90%

Avg (+ or -) 7.98%
Bias -0.88%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 17.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 15.54 to 19.96
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 16.33 to 19.17
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.6%): 14.80 to 20.70
Based on UP max only (+16.2%): 20.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

#shortstrangles

#earnings #closing SBUX July 25,…

#earnings #closing SBUX

July 25, sold a Sept 20, 85/97.50 strangle for 2.08. SBUX went almost to 100. Bought today for 1.76.

INTU dub cal

#Earnings Bought to open $INTU Aug23/Aug30 275 #DoubleCalendar for 1.69. Pretty good range of profitability: 262 to 288, or 4.7% either way.