TSLA early Rollup

Bought to close TSLA 08/23/2019 212.50 Calls / Sold TSLA 08/30/2019 215.00 Calls @ 1.10 Credit + 2.50 better strike.
The stock bottomed at 217.60 before rebounding a bit.

SPLK Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizards – Got rid of NVDA earlier today so looking for a replacement…

Sold SPLK AUG 23 2019 122.0/131.0/134.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.31

No upside risk with put sale just inside the expected move but right at the 200ma. Breakeven below that…

SPX dte Monday

#SPX1dte. Another condor, licking wound from smashed call spread this week. Sold a few minutes after release of FOMC minutes.

Sold $SPX Aug 26th 2820/2845-2975/3000 condors for 3.15.

#tastytradefollow QCOM OXY AMZN Plagiarizing…

#tastytradefollow QCOM OXY AMZN

Plagiarizing Sept. 20 expirations all 3.
QCOM #jadelizard 69/79/80 for 1.07
OXY #jadelizard 42.50/45/46 for 1.38
AMZN #callbutterfly 1925/1940/1940/1970 for .88

SPLK trade

#Earnings. Bought to Open $SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.02. Breakeven is down around 125.00, so some room below. No upside risk.

#ic

SPLK earnings analysis

#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 7.87%
Bias 2.25%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 129.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 118.69 to 139.31
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 118.84 to 139.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 105.92 to 152.08
Based on DOWN max only (-10.1%): 115.97

Open to requests for other symbols.

CRM earnings analysis (tomorrow)

#Earnings $CRM reports TOMORROW after the bell; by request I’m posting analysis today . Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 4, 2019 AC +5.05%
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 2.98%
Bias 1.44%%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 147.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 139.86 to 155.14
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 143.10 to 151.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 132.35 to 162.65
Based on DOWN max only (-4.4%): 141.00

Open to requests for other symbols.