#SPX1dte. Since the S&P popped much higher at the close, I had to roll tomorrow’s spread.
BTC $SPX Sept 11th 2990/3010 call spreads for 1.65. Sold for 1.10 90 minutes earlier.
STO $SPX Sept 11th 2920/2940-3005/3025 condors for .675 (avg price).
So if it expires, my total credit will be +0.125. Bummer.
#Earnings. Bought to open $RH Sept 13th 155/157.5 strangle fo 14.60. This needs about a 10% move to breakeven, and it has done that or more 10 of the last 12 quarters. Still, it’s expensive so only a 1-l0t.
Bought to close $NUGT 9/20 39 calls @ .47. Sold for 1.46 on 7/10.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 11th 2905/2925-2990/3010 condors for 1.10, IV: 10.83%, SPX 2963
#CoveredCalls
Roll up and back $OSTK 9/20 17.5 calls for 9/13 21.5 calls @3.20 – basis now 18.50.
.
GOOS BTO STOCK @41.23 & 41.36
OSTK BTO STOCK @20.71 & 21.14
OSTK STO 9/20/19 21.5 & 22.0 CALLS @1.02 & .90
OSTK STO 9/13/19 21.5 CALLS @.55
OSTK STO 9/13/19 21.0 CALLS @.90
GOOS BTO STOCK @41.23 & 41.36
CLDR BTO STOCK @9.13
Bought to close $TLT 9/20 147/152 bear call spread @ .15. Sold for 1.30 on 8/14.
Roll $AMD 34 Sep-20-2019 #shortputs for 34 Oct-18-2019 @+0.4. Basis now $31.37. Stock at 30.18.
#tastytradefollow UVXY
Sold Oct. 18, 17 lp/27/sp/27lc/34sc for 1.10
STO October 18, 95 puts at 2.15 with stock at 105 and earnings on October 28
#coveredcalls
Rolled $MEI 35 Sept 20 2019 Calls for Oct 18 2019 35 @+.70.
BTC Dec. 115 calls at 8.80 this morning. I should have waited but happy to be out of that trade for a .30 cent loss.
#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 12, 2019 AC +15.82%
March 28, 2019 AC -21.96%
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75% Biggest UP
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69% Biggest DOWN
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
Avg (+ or -) 18.51%
Bias 5.37%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.01 to 168.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 124.27 to 180.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 84.26 to 220.74
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 113.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 