BTC August 21, 1800/1820-1350/1330 iron condor at 4.70, sold at 9.45, following TT, I.C. plan.
Monthly Archives: August 2020
“Covered Calls” Outperforming “Stock Only” in 13 of 20 positions.
We have been tracking the daily profitability of covered call positions for an extended period of time. Many of the positions have been rolled several times. If stock is assigned it was removed from the tracking and considered closed. The following positions are “open”.
- Blue Line = Profit or Loss on stock
- Orange Line = Profit or Loss on Option
- Black Line = Net or Combined for Stock and Option.
If the Black Line is above the Blue Line the “covered call” is outperforming just owing the stock. If Black Line is Below Blue the stock is outperforming the covered call.
401(K) Account
General Account
WDC
Western Digital Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results
News Summary
— Fourth quarter revenue was $4.3 billion , up 18% year-over-year (YoY).
Data Center Devices and Solutions revenue grew 32%, Client Devices grew
19%, and Client Solutions declined 9% YoY. Fiscal year 2020 revenue was
$16.7 billion , up 1.0% YoY.
— Fourth quarter GAAP earnings-per-share (EPS) was $0.49 and non-GAAP EPS
was $1.23 . Both GAAP and non-GAAP EPS include $96 million in costs
related to COVID-19 in the fourth quarter. Fiscal year 2020 GAAP EPS was
($0.84) and non-GAAP EPS was $3.04 .
— Generated operating cash flow of $172 million and free cash flow of $261
million in the fourth quarter. Generated operating cash flow of $824
million and free cash flow of $1.1 billion in fiscal year 2020.
— Expecting first fiscal quarter 2021 revenue to be in the range of $3.7 to
$3.9 billion with non-GAAP EPS in the range of $0.45 to $0.65 . Non-GAAP
EPS outlook includes costs related to COVID-19.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong I am not buying a spread for next Wednesday because, like last Friday, it is going for over 19.00. I don’t know why this is, as I was able to buy Monday’s spread for only 16.65, which is perhaps the least I have ever paid. I SOLD one on Friday, but that spread will be a loss unless we drop into Friday’s close. Friday is the unemployment report for July, so it could be a wild day.
Expired: $SPX Aug 5th 3245/3265 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.85.
#SPX1dte Expiring: Aug 5th 3220/3240-3345/3365 condors, sold yesterday for .85.
TQQQ
BTC August 7, 65 puts at .01, sold at 1.05 and that is it until next week.
Hello BOIL our old friend…
Probably not the best trade in the world but the big move up in nat gas is screaming “fade me”. At least I thought I heard that.
So keeping with the promise I made to myself of not selling naked calls on these leveraged commodity ETFs, I decided to sell a call spread, the 12/18 60/70 bear call spread for 1.30. Kind of kills the appeal of these since you could sell the highest strike in December, 90 calls, for 3.75 or so. But those days are over. The other drawback is liquidity so if this thing rockets up again there might be some slippage in getting out. We’ll see what happens.
WDC Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – A small shot out a couple weeks…
Sold WDC AUG 21 2020 40.5 Puts @ 1.01
ROKU Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Can’t believe I’m selling this strike but here goes. Right at the expected move but still above the 50ma. Sure looks extended to me…
Sold ROKU AUG 21 2020 140.0 Put @ 2.75
AAL
New diagonal spread to go along with my covered Calls
Sold AAL 08/07/2020 14.0 Calls / Bought AAL 10/16/2020 25.0 Calls @ 0.04 Credit.
Rumors of further airline bailouts. The 2 day calls are quite rich with the stock at 12.50.
Another #BoredToDeath trade
#shortputs X It’s not in…
It’s not in the league of a short strangle in AMZN, sold an Aug. 21, 7 put for .28.
ATVI
#ShortPuts #Earnings #OneNightStand – Thanks for playing! I’ll call you in 3 months.
Bought to Close ATVI AUG 21 2020 76.0 Puts @ .30 (sold for .98)
LVGO
#ShortPuts – Adding the other side of the TDOC merger. Both stocks down and nobody’s happy so I’m happy!
Sold LVGO AUG 28 2020 110.0 Put @ 2.30
AAPL
Apple received a rare analyst downgrade on Wednesday morning from Bank of America, as the market capitalization of the equity approaches an all-time high $2 trillion.
BofA analyst Wamsi Mohan downgraded Apple’s stock to “neutral” from “buy”, citing rapid multiple expansion that has pushed valuations to rich levels. Besides the downgrade, the analyst increased his price target from $420 to $470.
Mohan said Apple shares are trading at the highest premium to the S&P500 in a decade, and now represents 6.5% of the market cap of the entire S&P500.
VIAC Earnings
Anyone playing this one?
SPY
Rolling one of my long Call Up and out.
Sold to close SPY 08/21/2020 325.0 Call / Bought SPY 10/16/2020 336.0 Call @ 0.30 Credit.
I got a double on my 325 long.
I continue to sell very short term SPY calls against the longs hoping for a decent pullback some day.
VXX
Sold 08/07/2020 27.00 Puts @ 0.56.
Sold against 2021 Long Puts already paid for with earlier diagonal spreads.
#DoubleDip
LULU call spread
$LULU Up today now seems to be slowing down. Fading the move by selling 8/21 365/375 bear call spread @ 1.34 credit. Not getting 1/3 the width of the strikes because I’m considering this to be more of a synthetic short call, with a long call to reduce buying power. Short call at 32 delta.
TRADE:
THC STO 8/7/20 30.0 CALLS @.50
TRADES:
APT STO 8/7/20 22.0 CALLS @.30
CC BTO STOCK @20.82
CC BTO STOCK @21.20 now overweight
TDOC
#ShortPuts – Thanks @jsd501 for pointing this one out. Added to my watchlist now.
Sold TDOC AUG 28 2020 175.0 Put @ 3.30
CODX Puts / OLLI Calls
#shortputs
$CODX STO 8/7 27 put at 1.50
#coveredcalls
$OLLI STO 8/21 110 call at 1.80
AMZN
In my IRA,
BTC August 21, 2650/2700-3700/3750 Iron condor at 1.50, sold at 3.05
I am following the TT of 50% profit or 21 days to expiration.
TRADES:
GDX STO 8/7/20 45.0 ATM PUTS @.52 Worst case scenario, I bought the stock a little cheaper. ;>)
MRNA
#ShortPuts – Just a small one. Down after earnings so selling just outside the expected move and well below the 50ma…
Sold MRNA AUG 21 2020 60.0 Puts @ .96
Another DOCU rollup
$DOCU Rolled the bull put spread side of my iron condor up again, from 8/21 205/195 to 220/210 @ 1.87 credit. Put spread side has been rolled up 3 times and now total premium is 8.20 against 10 point wide wings so I will let this position sit with a now max loss of 1.80. Will look to close out for a profit if the opportunity arises before options expiration.
TDOC
STO September 18, 200/180-260/280 iron condor for a 8.25 credit, you can do better now.
ROKU earnings analysis
#Earnings $ROKU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 11 quarters, representing its entire history of earnings reports.
May 7, 2020 AC -7.88%
Feb. 13, 2020 AC -6.32%
Nov. 6, 2019 AC -16.01%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +20.85%
May 8, 2019 AC +28.11%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +25.23%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -22.29% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +21.31%
May 9, 2018 AC -1.71%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -17.71%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +54.93% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 20.21%
Bias 7.14%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 166.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 146.03 to 185.97 (+/- 12.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 132.45 to 199.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (54.9%): 74.82 to 257.18
Based on DOWN max only (-22.3%): 129.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
WDC earnings analysis
#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2020 AC -12.15%
Jan. 30, 2020 AC -2.18%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC -16.90%
July 31, 2019 AC +3.00%
April 29, 2019 AC +1.28%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +7.52% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
Avg (+ or -) 7.40%
Bias -5.13%, strongly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 45.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 41.39 to 48.61 (+/- 8.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 41.67 to 48.33
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 36.82 to 53.18
Based on UP max only (+7.5%): 48.38
Open to requests for other symbols.
Square up
#Earnings “Square reported numbers a day earlier than expected after a media outlet leaked them.” $SQ
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/square-sq-earnings-q2-2020.html
Markets
Scared money may not make money today, but at least it lives to fight another day…
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 3220/3240-3345/3365 condors for .85, IV 13.91%, SPX 3299, deltas -.06,+.06
AMD
Not timely, sorry. Is from this morning. Small position. Likely risky.
BTO $AMD Sept-18-2020 85 #Calls @4.75.
ATVI Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Just a straight put sale going out to the monthlies. Selling at the expected move and 50ma.
Sold ATVI AUG 21 2020 76.0 Puts @ .98
#shortputs #longstock XOM CC Followed…
#shortputs #longstock XOM CC
Followed honkhonk81 into CC, 100 shares
XOM, sold Aug. 21, 41 put for .72, stock in the 43s
AMZN
STO September 18, Iron condor 2650/2700-3700/3750 for 9.35 premium. I intend to cover this around 21 days to expiration. I am using the TT strategy.
NFLX
BTC August 21, iron condor, 430/440-580,590 at .80 cents, sold at 3.20
ROKU NVAX Calls Rolled
#coveredcalls
$SQ BTC 8/7 131 call and STO 8/14 138 call at 1.65 debit. Earnings tomorrow so I have an earnings play. Stock at 135.86.
$NVAX BTC 8/7 145 calls and STO 8/7 155 calls at debit of 4.60. Stock at 154.95.
TQQQ
Good morning, I have been without power this morning but I did
STODecember 75 puts at 7.40
TRADES:
CC BTO STOCK @19.45
THC BTO STOCK @24.75, 24.93, 24.97, 25.35 Reported earnings last night.
DIS earnings analysis
#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 5, 2020 AC -0.17%
Feb. 4, 2020 AC -2.32%
Nov. 7, 2019 AC +3.76% Biggest UP
Aug. 6, 2019 AC -4.94% Biggest DOWN
May 8, 2019 AC -1.03%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -1.10%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +1.72%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87%
Avg (+ or -) 2.19%
Bias -0.94%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 117.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.05 to 123.95 (+/- 5.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 114.93 to 120.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.9%): 111.70 to 123.30
Based on UP max only (+3.8%): 121.92
Open to requests for other symbols.
VXX
Another #Boredtodeath trade 🙂
Bought VXX Jun 21 2021 8.0 Puts / Sold VXX Aug 07 2020 27.0 Puts @ 0.12 Credit with the stock at 27.85.
Normal #Contango drift in VXX will help the long Puts between now and next June
LULU
Hello
Long-time lurker, now officially a practicing @fuzzballl apprentice. Looking forward to taking part in the conversations.
Just a few puts and verticals today:
Sold SPCE Aug 28 20.0 PUT @ 1.19
Sold ATVI Sep 18 77.5/77 Bull Put Spread @ 0.63
Sold LOW Sep 18 135/130 Bull Put Spread @ 0.72
Sold HD Sep 18 250/245 Bull Put Spread @ 1.10
Sold SPY Sep 11 310/308 Bull Put Spread @ 0.30
TQQQ Put Closed / DHI BUCS Closed / TQQQ Calls Rolled / SPX 1 DTE Expire
#shortputs
$TQQQ BTC 9/18 30 put at .15. STO at 2.15 on 5/6. Thank you TQQQ King @jsd501
#bucs
$DHI STC 8/2155/65 BUCS at 8.60. BTO at 4.64
#longleaps
$TQQQ BTC 1/15/2021 67 calls and STO 1/15/2021 90 calls. Took in16.50 in profit.
#spx1dte #optionsexpiration
$SPX 3145/3165/3310/3330 Sold for 1.05
WBA Covered Calls
Sold WBA AUG 07 2020 $42 CALLS @ 0.27 with the stock at 40.80
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 10th 3270/3290-3300/3320 condors for 16.65, with SPX at 3293.
Expiring: Aug 3rd 3245/3265 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 17.05.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 3310/3330 call spreads for .40. Condors sold for 1.10 on Friday. Stop was hit at the open but was able to wait for low cost exit.
#earnings #closing AAPL July 30,…
VXX
Bored to death trade 🙂
Bought VXX Jun 21 2021 7.0 Puts / Sold VXX Aug 07 2020 27.0 Puts @ 0.14 Credit with the stock at 28.20
Contango drift in VXX and a strong market should make the longs worth more than zero someday
TQQQ
#ShortPuts – This is getting ridiculous. My most aggressive #TakeOneForTheTeam so far. 🙂 🙂
Sold TQQQ AUG 28 2020 100.0 Put @ 2.90
INTC NVDA
#ShortPuts – Swapping NVDA for INTC. Starter position out in Sep.
Sold INTC SEP 18 2020 45.0 Puts @ .94
Bought to Close NVDA AUG 07 2020 375.0 Put @ .06 (sold for 2.59)
EIX – Parking More Cash
BTO EIX stock @ $53.54
STO EIX Sep 18: 52.5 call @ $3.40
BTO EIX Jan 2022: 70 put : @ $21.76
EIX (Edison International) currently pays a $2.55 per share dividend (4.7% yield).
For the $70 protective put you are paying (53.54 + 21.76) – 70 = $5.30 premium. That first call sale goes a long way on the cost reduction process.
Thanks Sue (and many others) for all the ideas on conservative trades that can generate a reasonable income with upfront protection.
EWZ LABU
#ShortPuts – A couple today…
Sold EWZ SEP 4 2020 28.5 Puts @ .64
Bought to Close LABU AUG 7 2020 40.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for 1.05)
TRADES:
AAOI BTO STOCK @15.97
AAOI STO 8/7/20 14.0 PUTS @.45
AAOI STO 8/7/20 18.0 CALLS @.56
DOCU roll up
With the stock breaching the call spread side of my iron condor (at 224.45), rolled $DOCU 185/175 bull put spread up to 205/195 for 1.35 credit. Part of an iron condor with 220/230 bear call spread. Originally sold for 3.69 on 7/15. This is the second roll up of the put spread side. With this credit, total premium taken in now 6.30.
TRADES:
CC BTO STOCK @18.93, 19.14, 19.59
THC STC STOCK @26.40 Earnings tonight.
EWZ – Parking Cash
BTO EWZ Jan 2022 : long strangle $27 call / $37 put @ $16.70
STO EWZ Aug 07: 32.0 straddle @ $1.38
Classic Hedge Fund trick. The long strangle has 526 DTE. Back of the envelope calculation 526 / 7 = 75 weekly option expirations left. Guaranteed $10 when closing out the long strangle in Jan 2022. So $16.70 – $10.00 = $6.70 to finance in weekly sales. Just sold week 1 for $1.38 . Four more similar weeks and that’s a zero cost strangle.
Will be closing out the previous EWZ September 2020 strangle.
#fuzzyhotair #putratioladder AAPL put ratio…
AAPL put ratio ladder update: ON SUSPENSION
(1×2 credit ratios, 30 delta/25 delta, with a BWB hedge to extend downside)
So I’ve seen this movie before. The last time AAPL split there was a mad run-up in stock demand and price (everyone scratched their head back then, as well). I can make more (with less risk) using collars on AAPL, vs put ratios. Especially since I keep cash allocation for short put assignment anyway. Plus there’s an ex-div on Aug 7th.
So here’s an update on the “rungs.”
Week 1: CLOSED
Aug 21 345/340 sold 6.70, bought 2.32
Wish I hadn’t closed this, the breakeven was super far away…should have let more juice drain off until 20 DTE (right after these words were published AAPL dropped from $400+ to the 360’s on anti-competitive news reports, so closing was a good move in hindsight)
Week 2: Closed on July 31
Aug 28 372.5/365 sold 7.12, put fly hedge 350/340/335 .90: Put ratio closed for 1.45
Week 3: Closed on July 31
Sep 4 360/355 sold 6.05, put fly hedge bought 345/335/330 for .93: Put ratio closed for 1.61
Week 4: Still open
Sep 11 360/355 put ratio sold 6.10, put fly hedge bought 345/335/330 for .99
Breakeven $335
Collars added: 100 share blocks + Sold Sep 18 420 calls @ 20.10, + Bot Aug 28th Put Debit Spreads 400/380 @ $3.99
Split will happen on Aug 31
Expirations Assignments
#assignment
$PFE 36.5 call
$SQ 124 call
$T 30 put
#optionsexpirations
$PFE 40.5 call
$NIO 14 calls
$KHC 37 calls Shout out to @honkhonk81
$RAD 15.5 calls
$MRNA 84 calls
$APT 25 calls
$AAOI calls
PEP 139 calls
$TQQQ 75 puts Thanks @jsd501
$MRVL 35 put
$KHC 34 put Shout out to @honkhonk81
MDLZ
BTC MDLZ July 31: 55.0 short straddle @ $0.52 (originally sold for $2.17)
STO MDLZ Aug 07: 55.0 short straddle @ $1.18
Premium seems to be dropping off pretty fast on this one – but sticking to the system.
Cover is the Jan 2022 long 40 put / 65 call strangle.
EWZ
BTC EWZ July 31: 32.5 straddle @ $0.08 (originally sold for $1.55)
STO EWZ Aug 07: 32.5 straddle @ $1.65
The short straddle is covered by a long EWZ Sep 18: 24 put / 30 call strangle.
Options Bistro 