Author Archives: Jeff

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:37 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
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HON earnings analysis

#Earnings $HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10%
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78% Biggest UP
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%
July 22, 2016 BO -2.57% Biggest DOWN
April 22, 2016 BO -0.65%

Avg (+ or -) 1.54%
Bias 0.82%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 163.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.33 to 167.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.49 to 165.51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 156.84 to 169.16
Based on DOWN max only (-2.6%): 158.81

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:08 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
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SKX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SKX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC +6.26%

Avg (+ or -) 16.20%
Bias 1.17%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 35.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.85 to 39.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 29.50 to 40.90
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 20.61 to 49.79
Based on DOWN max only (-27.0%): 25.68

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:05 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
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AXP earnings analysis

#Earnings $AXP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 17, 2019 AC +0.99%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +3.78%
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2018 AC +7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC +5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +9.02% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC +0.90%

Avg (+ or -) 2.99%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 111.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 107.89 to 115.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 108.17 to 114.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 101.44 to 121.56
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 108.47

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:01 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
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SPX 0-dte

#SPX1dte A little confusing with this being monthly expiration week but Friday a holiday. The monthly options stop trading today at the close and are settled at the open tomorrow. Then the weeklys, that normally settle at Friday’s close, will settle at Thursday’s close. So to get a piece of each series, I sold the monthlys now as a same-day trade, and I’ll sell the weeklys before the close today.

Sold to Open $SPX April 17th (monthlys) 2855/2875-2930/2950 condors for .75. I may look to close today to avoid gap risk. (IV 12.5%, SPX: 2907)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:50 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
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NFLX closed

#Earnings Bought to close $NFLX 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 4.15 and 4.16. Sold yesterday for 8.35. With price at dead center, taking profit and running as NFLX may still move big. Can’t Truss It.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:33 pm on Tuesday, April 16, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 17th 2865/2885-2930/2950 condors for .80. (IV: 8.05%, SPX: 2908)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:50 am on Tuesday, April 16, 2019
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NFLX tight condor

#Earnings Sold to Open $NFLX Apr 18th 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 8.35.

Risking 1.65 to make 5.00-7.00. Max win is about 8.35 but that’s only if I wait for expiration on Thursday. I’ll look to close this when (and if) stock price gets close enough to my 10-point center range for a profit.

NFLX often gaps big, but then sometimes will fade for the rest of the day (or two days). This is a smaller position as probability is lower and I don’t want to lose the max on a large position.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:51 am on Tuesday, April 16, 2019
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IBM dub cal

#Earnings Bought to open $IBM Apr18/Apr26 145 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Surprised I was filled below mid price… partial fill, may have to raise bid to fulfill my full position.

This has a 5% average move… tomorrow’s breakevens are showing to be precisely at 5%. So this has an even chance of working, but also an additional day to fade any large move.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:32 am on Tuesday, April 16, 2019
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IBM earnings analysis

#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%
July 18, 2016 AC -0.17%
April 18, 2016 AC -5.59%

Avg (+ or -) 4.95%
Bias -1.15%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 144.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.68 to 151.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 136.87 to 151.13
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 131.24 to 156.76
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 133.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:39 am on Tuesday, April 16, 2019
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NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12%
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 8.36%
Bias 1.78%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 354.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 328.02 to 379.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 324.39 to 383.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 286.67 to 421.33
Based on DOWN max only (-13.1%): 307.56

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:28 am on Monday, April 15, 2019
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SPX 15-dte

#SPX1dte Sold another roll: $SPX Apr 30th 2790/2810/2950/2970 condors for 3.80. (IV: 10.85% SPX: 2902)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:30 am on Monday, April 15, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX April 17th 2725/2750-2940/2965 condors for .50. Sold for 2.85 as a roll on April 1st.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:48 am on Monday, April 15, 2019
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UNH earnings analysis

#Earnings $UNH reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +3.55%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +4.73%
July 17, 2018 BO -2.60% Biggest DOWN
April 17, 2018 BO +3.57%
Jan. 16, 2018 BO +4.28%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +5.53%
July 18, 2017 BO +0.26%
April 18, 2017 BO +0.84%
Jan. 17, 2017 BO -0.70%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +6.90% Biggest UP
July 19, 2016 BO +1.30%
April 19, 2016 BO +2.10%

Avg (+ or -) 3.03%
Bias 2.48%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 227.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 215.83 to 239.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 220.61 to 234.39
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.9%): 211.80 to 243.20
Based on DOWN max only (-2.6%): 221.59

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:17 am on Monday, April 15, 2019
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SPX 9-dte

#SPX1-dte Sold $SPX Apr 24th 2900/2875 put spreads for 6.95. Aggressive ATM position in response to minor upside warning that fired Friday. If index has not moved higher by Wednesday, I will consider rolling.
(IV 10%, SPX: 2903)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:14 am on Monday, April 15, 2019
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JNJ earnings analysis

#Earnings $JNJ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 22, 2019 BO -1.44%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +1.94%
July 17, 2018 BO +3.54%
April 17, 2018 BO -0.92%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO -4.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +3.43% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 BO +1.74%
April 18, 2017 BO -3.10%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.88%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO -2.59%
July 19, 2016 BO +1.71%
April 19, 2016 BO +1.57%

Avg (+ or -) 2.34%
Bias -0.02%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 136.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.62 to 140.88
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.06 to 139.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.3%): 130.46 to 142.04
Based on DOWN max only (+3.5%): 141.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:51 am on Monday, April 15, 2019
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SPX 0-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 15th 2865/2885-2915/2925 condors for 1.00. Expire today (IV: 7.66%, SPX: 2904)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 1:45 pm on Friday, April 12, 2019
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Minor Upside Warning

#VIXIndicator fired this at the close. Last one we got was on March 13th, and it was good for a 1.75% move up from that day’s close to intraday high 6 days later, before we stalled and pulled back a little.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 1:06 pm on Friday, April 12, 2019
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PNC up and out

#Earnings I played this one exactly right… slightly bearish lean. Today’s +3.1% day is the highest one-day move up after earnings since January 2013. So, expiring with 3.00 exercise cost, $PNC #IronCondor, sold yesterday for 2.00.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:50 pm on Friday, April 12, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Apr 15th 2850/2830 put spreads and 2920 short calls for 1.40 total. Sold yesterday for 1.25. Leaving the 2940 long calls. Upside warning being reinstated today (VIX lowest since early October) and traded within expected move, so I’m out. May try to sell another same-day on Monday morning. The one from today is expiring:
SPX Apr 12th 2860/2880-2920/2935, sold for .80 this morning.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:15 am on Friday, April 12, 2019  

Econ Calendar for week of 4/15/19

Shortened week with Good Friday holiday.

Screen Shot 2019-04-12 at 11.14.05 AM
Screen Shot 2019-04-12 at 11.14.05 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=15&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:04 am on Friday, April 12, 2019
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GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Since expiration is not until next Friday, I checked 5-day moves and they are slightly bigger than the one-day moves, but not a huge difference.

Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%
July 19, 2016 BO -1.17%
April 19, 2016 BO +2.28%

Avg (+ or -) 2.69%
Bias 0.13%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 207.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.93 to 217.07
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 201.91 to 213.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 187.70 to 227.30
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 197.73

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:42 am on Friday, April 12, 2019
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SPX 0-dte

#SPX1dte Since I sold Monday’s condor yesterday, selling today’s today.
Sold $SPX Apr 12th 2865/2885-2920/2935 condors for .80. Tight leash… if we get a face-blasting rally I’ll back out.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:38 am on Friday, April 12, 2019
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Upside Warning probably reaffirmed

#VIXIndicator With a $VIX close at 13.54 or lower today, a”minor” upside warning will fire, reaffirming market’s upside bias in the absence of any significant pullback materializing. Should mean another leg higher next week.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:30 am on Thursday, April 11, 2019
Tags: SPX1ste   

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1ste Sold $SPX Apr 15th 2830/2850-2920/2940 condor for 1.25 (IV 7.23%, SPX 2890)

With low IV and sideways market, placing today’s trade a bit earlier and more aggressively than usual.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:31 am on Thursday, April 11, 2019
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PNC (slightly) bearish condor

#Earnings Sold $PNC Apr 12th 124/127-128/131 #IronCondor for 2.00.

Risking 1.00 to make 2.00. Sightly bearish due to its recent history.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:27 am on Thursday, April 11, 2019  

Be wary of the banks?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-spring-thaw-in-store-for-banks-11554908159

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:22 am on Thursday, April 11, 2019
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PNC earnings analysis

#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Comparing 1-point-wide, 3-point-wing #IronCondor trades, PNC comes out with a much better R/R than does $JPM. PNC has a slightly lower average move, but weighted toward downside.

Jan. 16, 2019 BO +0.07%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72% Biggest UP
Oct. 14, 2016 BO +0.10%
July 15, 2016 BO -0.96%
April 14, 2016 BO -0.56%

Avg (+ or -) 1.16%
Bias -0.94%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 128.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 124.74 to 132.26
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.01 to 129.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 121.33 to 135.67
Based on UP max only (+0.7%): 129.43

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:59 am on Thursday, April 11, 2019
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JPM earnings analysis

#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.73%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO -0.32%
July 14, 2016 BO +1.51%
April 13, 2016 BO +4.23% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 1.30%
Bias 0.14%, no significant directional bias on earnings.

With stock at 106.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 104.08 to 108.92
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 105.12 to 107.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.2%): 102.00 to 111.00
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 103.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:52 am on Wednesday, April 10, 2019
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SPX 1-dte call side closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX April 10th 2900 calls for .10. Closing before FOMC minutes released at 2p ET. Condor sold for .80 yesterday.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:49 am on Wednesday, April 10, 2019
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BBBY earnings analysis

#Earnings $BBBY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 9, 2019 AC +16.55% Biggest UP
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%
April 5, 2017 AC +3.38%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -9.17%
Sept. 21, 2016 AC +0.74%
June 22, 2016 AC +1.50%
April 6, 2016 AC +0.32%

Avg (+ or -) 9.74%
Bias -5.99%, strong negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 18.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.52 to 21.28
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 17.06 to 20.74
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 14.93 to 22.87
Based on UP max only (+16.6%): 22.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:05 pm on Tuesday, April 9, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 10th 2825/2845-2900/2925 condors for .80. (IV: 8.99%, SPX: 2877)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:33 am on Tuesday, April 9, 2019
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T puts

#ShortPuts #PieTrades Sold $T July 32 puts for 1.50.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:04 am on Tuesday, April 9, 2019
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DAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
July 14, 2016 BO +3.58%
April 14, 2016 BO +0.93%

Avg (+ or -) 1.97%
Bias 1.41%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 57.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.79 to 59.21
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 55.88 to 58.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 54.29 to 59.71
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 56.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

#ironcondor, #pietrades

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:39 pm on Monday, April 8, 2019
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SPX 9-dte

#SPX1dte Another roll: Sold $SPX Apr 17th (weekly) 2815/2840-2925/2950 condors for 4.95.(IV: 10.38%, SPX: 2893)

Also expiring today: Apr 8th 2835/2855-2915/2925 condors, sold Friday for .70.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:55 am on Friday, April 5, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 8th 2835/2855-2915/2925 condors for .70 (IV: 6.21%, SPX: 2889)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:34 am on Friday, April 5, 2019  

Everything is Awesome

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:20 am on Friday, April 5, 2019  

Econ calendar for week of 4/8/19

Jerome Powell gets yappy next week

Screen Shot 2019-04-05 at 10.17.47 AM
Screen Shot 2019-04-05 at 10.17.47 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=8&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:04 am on Friday, April 5, 2019
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T puts closed

#ShortPuts #PieTrades BTC $T April 18th 31 puts for .15. Sold for 1.60 on Jan 22nd.

Replicated my Oct 24th-Jan 18th successful trade. This time it was Jan 22nd to April 18th.
Assignment would be fine on a high-div tock, becomes a PieTrade with covered calls.

I will look to sell July puts in the coming days.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 5:33 am on Friday, April 5, 2019
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March Jobs Report

#Jobs Improvement over February lows

+196,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 175K expected
Unemployment at 3.8%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.3%, unchanged
Wages up 0.1%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.0%, down by 0.2

February revised up from 20K to 33K
January revised up from 311K to 312K

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:50 am on Thursday, April 4, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 5th 2825/2845-2910/2925 condors for .95 (IV: 10.36% SPX: 2877)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:28 am on Thursday, April 4, 2019
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STZ out

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close $STZ Apr5/Apr12 180 dbl cals for .51 (avg price). Bought yesterday for .785

As I commented below, today’s action is an indication that earnings released in the AM may tend to have more intraday movement than those that report the night before. This is because the conference call will start or continue into the trading hours. For reports in the afternoon, all of the info has been absorbed over night and that could mean less movement.

So, waiting this morning was not such a good idea, because with the perfect opening we need to grab the profit before the ongoing conference call affects the price.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 1:24 pm on Wednesday, April 3, 2019
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SPX condor roll

#SPX1dte #VIXIndicator No upside warning today so I’m selling both sides:

Sold $SPX April 12th 2800/2825-2910/2935 condors for 6.30 (IV 11.82%, SPX 2875)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:26 pm on Wednesday, April 3, 2019
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Double Calendar Webinar recording

#Webinars #Earnings #DoubleCalendar Please include any questions in the comments below!

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:20 pm on Wednesday, April 3, 2019
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STZ double calendar

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Bought to Open $STZ Apr05/Apr12 180 dbl cal for .78 & .80.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:17 am on Wednesday, April 3, 2019  

Webinar on Double Calendars

Link for today’s webinar is below!

Topic: Double Calendars on Earnings
Time: Apr 3, 2019 11:00 AM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

Join Zoom Meeting
https://zoom.us/j/558920979

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:30 am on Wednesday, April 3, 2019
Tags: , Webinar   

Webinar TODAY

#Webinar I’ll be holding a webinar later today on #DoubleCalendar earnings trades. It will be either live or recorded, depending on how smoothly I can get the software operating. Either way, it WILL be recorded for future viewing, so don’t worry if you miss it. Shooting for 2pm ET, 11am PT.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:40 am on Wednesday, April 3, 2019
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STZ earnings analysis

#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -1.78%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75%
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%
Oct. 5, 2016 BO +0.07%
June 30, 2016 BO +6.37%
April 6, 2016 BO +13.07% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 5.82%
Bias 3.42%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 167.70 to 187.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 167.17 to 187.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 154.30 to 200.70
Based on DOWN max only (-12.4%): 155.47

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:33 am on Wednesday, April 3, 2019
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SPX 1-dte closed

#SPX1dte Closed Z$SPX Apr 3rd 2885/2895 all spreads for 1.60. Condors sold yesterday for 1.15, so .45 loss. Too tight with the low IV.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:58 am on Tuesday, April 2, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 3rd 2820/2840-2885/2895 condors for 1.15. (IV 8.55% SPX 2866)

Also BTC Apr 5th 2865/2890 call spreads for 9.70. I’m eating a day to roll this. If we get $VIX closes below 13.55 today and tomorrow, it should mean a push in the short-term toward 2900. I’ll sell aggressively based on tomorrow’s action.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:19 am on Tuesday, April 2, 2019
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SIG earnings analysis

#Earnings $SIG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

I have never traded this, but it is a big mover

Dec. 6, 2018 BO -18.04%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +23.84% Biggest UP
June 6, 2018 BO +18.39%
March 14, 2018 BO -20.22%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -30.39% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +16.66%
May 25, 2017 BO -7.75%
March 9, 2017 BO +8.72%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +2.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -12.62%
May 26, 2016 BO -10.49%
March 24, 2016 BO +2.88%

Avg (+ or -) 14.35%
Bias -2.24%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 27.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.31 to 31.69
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 23.56 to 31.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (30.4%): 19.14 to 35.86
Based on UP max only (+23.8%): 34.06

Open to requests for other symbols.

#fallingknife

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:15 pm on Monday, April 1, 2019
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SPX roll

#SPX1dte Stopped on $SPX April 17th (monthlys) 2600/2625-2925/2950 condors for 3.10. Sold for 3.65 on March 22nd. #Rolling Sold (same expiry) 2725/2750-2940/2965 condors for 2.85.

The monthly contracts stop trading Wednesday this month due to the Good Friday holiday on 4/19.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:18 am on Monday, April 1, 2019
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SPX 1 die

#SPXdte Pressured on the upside this week… BTC $SPX April 1st 2855/2875 call spreads for 4.40. Condors sold Thursday for 1.00. Should have closed this Friday.

Also rolling the April 5th call spread I have. No trade yet.

I’m going to start watching Market Tide indicator more to help guide these trades. I’m putting up /ES 1-hour and 10-min charts, since these are mostly 1-day trades with a few that are 1-5 weeks out.

Anyone prefer $SPY to /ES for the Tide?

Unknown's avatar Jeff 1:15 pm on Friday, March 29, 2019
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SPX 1-dte and final trades

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2790/2770 put spreads for .45. This is a roll-up from the puts closed this morning. I’m leaving the 2855/2875 call spread in place.

Expiring: March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors, sold this morning for 1.10.

#Earnings $CCL #IronButterfly from Monday a flop… exercising for loss of 1.25 on the sale for 2.25.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:23 am on Friday, March 29, 2019
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Econ Calendar for week of 4/1/19

#Jobs Report is Friday morning

Screen Shot 2019-03-29 at 10.20.41 AM
Screen Shot 2019-03-29 at 10.20.41 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=1&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:01 am on Friday, March 29, 2019  

Your Lyft is on the way!

Screen Shot 2019-03-29 at 9.00.30 AM

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:15 am on Friday, March 29, 2019
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SPX 1-dte update

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX April 1st 2740/2720 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of condor yesterday… condor for 1.00, put side was .41 of that.

#doublecalendar, #doublecalendars

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:28 am on Friday, March 29, 2019
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SQ cals

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $SQ Apr 12th 78.5 calls for 1.05

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:53 am on Friday, March 29, 2019
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SPX 6-hte

#SPX1dte Since I messed up and sold Monday’s expiration yesterday, I’m selling TODAY’s expiration now.

Sold $SPX March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors for 1.10. Expires tonight. (IV 12.71% SPX 2824)

IV is high enough that it isn’t too risky to get decent premium. From a delta standpoint I’m being more aggressive on the call side, but we haven’t seen any blistering rallies on Friday afternoons lately.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:29 am on Thursday, March 28, 2019
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SPX 1-dte, er, 2-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2720/2740-2855/2875 condors for 1.00 (IV: 11.32%, SPX 2811). Meant to sell March 29th but I sold Monday’s.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:51 am on Thursday, March 28, 2019
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SPX ITM puts closed

#SPX1dte I got punched around pretty bad in March with a couple of 1-dte breaches and failed attempts at rolling. This reverse roll was the worst; had I left the call spread it would have ben fine. Thank God for strong months like February to eclipse small losing months like March.

BTC $SPX March 29th 2820/2800 put spreads for 8.50. Sold for 4.80 on March 19th as a #ReverseRoll.

#condorroll

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:49 am on Thursday, March 28, 2019
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RH earnings analysis

#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Always a big mover. Expected move is less than average move, meaning options are underpriced.

Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75%
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69%
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
June 8, 2016 AC -21.23%
March 29, 2016 AC +3.97%

Avg (+ or -) 17.46%
Bias 4.45%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 130.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.45 to 148.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 107.30 to 152.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 71.83 to 188.18
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 96.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:35 am on Wednesday, March 27, 2019
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SPX 1-dte puts closed

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 27th 2755 short puts for .10. Allowing remainder to expire. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:01 am on Wednesday, March 27, 2019
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INTC covered calls

#CoveredCalls Sold to Open #INTC Apr 26th 54 covered calls for 1.61. These expire before the ex-div. Earnings date not confirmed, so it could be before or after this expiry.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:53 am on Wednesday, March 27, 2019
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FIVE earnings analysis

#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

This stock is one of the most historically bullish movers on earnings.

Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86%
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45%
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
June 2, 2016 AC +2.07%
March 22, 2016 AC +6.81%

Avg (+ or -) 6.43%
Bias 5.14%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 118.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 108.40 to 128.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 110.88 to 126.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 92.60 to 144.40
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 114.41

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:41 am on Wednesday, March 27, 2019
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LULU earnings analysis

#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31%
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO +4.90%
March 30, 2016 BO +10.71%

Avg (+ or -) 11.81%
Bias 3.92%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 144.550 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 130.30 to 158.70
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.43 to 161.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 110.64 to 178.36
Based on UP max only (+16.3%): 168.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:03 pm on Tuesday, March 26, 2019
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SQ calls closed

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $SQ Mar 29th 79.5 calls for .05. Sold for .95 last Tuesday.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:38 am on Tuesday, March 26, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Mar 27th 2735/2755/2840/2855 condors for 1.20. (IV: 13.97%, SPX 2806)

Also, BTC March 29th 2860/2885 call spreads for 1.05. Sold for 3.75 on Friday.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:00 am on Monday, March 25, 2019
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NUGT calls

#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $NUGT Jan 2020 40 calls for 2.10. Took over a month since it last peaked, but patience can be a virtue with these levered suckers.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:21 am on Monday, March 25, 2019
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CCL earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings — I’m selling the CCL Mar 29th 53/56.5/60 #IronButterfly. Trying for 2.30, but will likely have to go lower. Not a big mover… its only large move was in December during the Christmas dive.

$CCL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 20, 2018 BO -9.48% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 27, 2018 BO -4.83%
June 25, 2018 BO -7.85%
March 22, 2018 BO -1.28%
Dec. 19, 2017 BO +2.29%
Sept. 26, 2017 BO +2.86%
June 22, 2017 BO -1.11%
March 28, 2017 BO +0.66%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +2.27%
Sept. 26, 2016 BO -1.67%
June 28, 2016 BO +0.20%
March 30, 2016 BO +5.49% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias -1.04%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 56.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.53 to 59.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.62 to 58.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 51.14 to 61.86
Based on UP max only (+5.5%): 59.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:16 am on Monday, March 25, 2019
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SPX 1-dte puts closed

#SPX1dte Filled at 9:14am ET on $SPX Mar 25th 2755/2735 put spreads for .25 (bought to close). Condors sold Friday for 1.00. Order in to close short 2855 calls for .05.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 1:05 pm on Friday, March 22, 2019
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Final Trades and Expirations

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $NKE Mar22/Mar29 88 put calendar for .02. Holding long 88 calls into next Friday. Good job by Mort closing the put calendar earlier at .17… I just had too much faith. Double Calendars bought yesterday for .49.

Exercising: $TIF 96/100/102 calls #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.50. Allowing to exercise on IB for about 70 cents in fees per lot, but closed manually for 2.00 on TOS to avoid $45 in fees.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:32 pm on Friday, March 22, 2019
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SPX 1dte sold

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 25th 2735/2755/2855/2875 condors for 1.00 (IV: 11.64%, SPX: 2809)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:01 am on Friday, March 22, 2019
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SPX 27-dte roll

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 17th (monthlys) 2600/2625/2925/2950 condors for 3.65, #Rolling from recently stopped daily spreads.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:38 am on Friday, March 22, 2019  

Econ Calendar for week of 3/25/19

–Various Fed speakers throughout the week
–GDP report Thursday before the opening bell.

Screen Shot 2019-03-22 at 10.33.27 AM
Screen Shot 2019-03-22 at 10.34.44 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=25&month=3&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:38 am on Friday, March 22, 2019
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SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte I can say I was not expecting this after yesterday, but clearly volatility is coming back for at least a visit, if not to stay longer this time. Also getting too loose with my rules…. stop level was hit on the first dip. But it never fails that when I follow my rule and dump out for breakeven, the day ends flat. If I let it go, then we end up ITM. This is two big hits in the month, so must change my ways. Thank God Feb was so strong for my accounts!

BTC $SPX March 22nd 2810/2790 put spreads for 5.00. Condors sold for .80 yesterday.

With the warning signal from the VIX looking to sell a week-out call spread. Also have the March 29th 2820/2800 put spreads, now ITM. Will give these until Monday to see if this is a head fake and look to roll it then.