#Earnings #DoubleCalendar #LongStock #CoveredCalls #Dividends
Lat week’s double cal didn’t work but I stuck with the trade, selling the long put and taking assignment, cost basis of 47.34.
Today I lightened the load, selling slightly less than half of the stock for 49.00.
I’m converting the rest into a #PieTrade, so I sold to Open $INTC March 15th 50 covered calls for 1.01.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar For 2nd quarter in a row, $EW is killing it on this strategy. The long options (Feb 8th) retain a lot of value, but because stock price is so close to my 170 strike, I was able to exit partial for 4.30 near the open. Now waiting for even a better price as the Feb 1st short options decay.
$MRK was the loser…. Sold to close $MRK Feb01/Feb08 74.5 dbl cals for .30. bought yesterday for .47
Working on the $HON exit. Looks like I’ll be able to get a slight profit.
#Earnings #Iron Condor This one is close to full loss, but I closed the call side for 4.50, a discount from what is likely to be an expiration of 5.00. Sold the condors for 1.75. Closed the $BA Feb 1st 380/385 call spreads for 4.50. Fortunately, earnings wins from this week will easily exceed this loss!
#ContangoETFs Yesterday, Sold $NUGT Sept 35 calls for 2.06. First time back in NUGT in a long time, and currently my only ContangoETF position.
#Jobs Much higher than expected, again. December revised lower.
+304,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 170K expected
Unemployment at 4.0%, up 0.1%
U6 unemployment at 8.1%, up 0.5%
Wages up 0.1%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, up by 0.1
December revised down from 312K to 222K
November revised up from 176K to 196K
#VIXIndicator We closed with $VIX only 0.10 above the cancelation level of the Downside Warning, which has been in effect since October 5th. If bears are going to show up, they better do it soon.
Bought $HON Feb01/Feb08 144 for .85
Bought $MRK Feb01/Feb08 74.5 for .47
Bought $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 for 1.57
#Earnoings #IronCondor Sold to Open $DECK Feb 1st 105/110/145/150 iron condors for .85
#Earnings #IronCondor Sold to Open $AMZN Feb 1st 1590/1600-1870/1880 iron condors for 2.00.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Feb 1st 2630/2650-2745/2765 iron condors for 1.00. (IV 15.35%; SPX 2703)
#Earnings $DECK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +6.18%
July 26, 2018 AC -6.87%
May 24, 2018 AC +3.54%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +7.30%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +3.32%
July 27, 2017 AC +1.59%
May 25, 2017 AC +18.80% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -16.06% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +7.11%
July 28, 2016 AC +4.06%
May 26, 2016 AC +7.99%
Feb. 4, 2016 AC -1.96%
Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias 2.92%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 125.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 112.87 to 138.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 116.63 to 134.37
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 101.91 to 149.09
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar These stocks all have fairly muted historical moves but decent IV elevation for earnings: $CI, $CVX, $HON, $MRK. Also, $EW was my biggest winner in this strategy last quarter. It opened nearly flat and allowed for perfect exit. Then the stock dropped 5%. So its moves are a bit large for a calendar but it worked out, so I may try again.
#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC +0.08%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC +8.33%
Avg (+ or -) 6.81%
Bias -1.98%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 161.14 to 178.86
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 158.42 to 181.58
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 140.95 to 199.05
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC +0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC +9.56%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC -7.60%
Avg (+ or -) 4.82%
Bias 0.39%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 1732.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1639.50 to 1824.50
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1648.52 to 1815.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1503.20 to 1960.80
Open for requests on other symbols.
#SPX1dte Closed both shorts for .05 each. Looks good to expire but this clears needed margin from smaller accounts. $SPX Jan 31st 2615/2635/2735/2755 condors sold yesterday for 1.00
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 31st 2615/2635-2735/2755 iron condors for 1.00. (IV 16%)
I hated doing this because I feel the rally today is a headfake, but I cannot fight the tape any higher than this.
Bought to close $SPX Feb 14th 2730/2750 call spreads for 5.75. Sold in a #CondorRoll on Jan 4th.
#CondorRoll Sold to Open Feb 14th 2600/2620/2760/2780 condors for 6.05.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Filled on the Fed spike: Sold $TQQQ Feb 15th 44 calls for 2.45
#SPX1dte bought to close $SPX Jan 30th 2685 calls for .85. Condors sold for 1.00 yesterday. Could not hold through the FOMC release that comes out in 40 minutes. I don’t expect a move like last time, when we exploded higher, but can’t risk it. Also sold a couple the long 2705 calls for .05, and will try to sell them all to reduce cost of the exit. Allowing puts to expire.
Don’t know whether I’ll buy or sell the condor for Jan 31st expiration yet!
#Earnings $MSFT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +5.84%
July 19, 2018 AC +1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +6.41% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +2.34%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC +4.20%
July 19, 2016 AC +5.31%
April 21, 2016 AC -7.17% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 28, 2016 AC +5.82%
Avg (+ or -) 3.51%
Bias 2.09%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 105.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 101.22 to 110.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 102.18 to 109.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.2%): 98.31 to 113.49
Open for requests on other symbols.
Sold to open $NOW Feb 1st 185/190/195 iron butterflys for 4.35. Max risk .65. As I reported below, this one has been more of a minor mover in recent years, so seeing if it can maintain its calm. If not, max loss is tolerable.
#LongStraddle #Earnings
Sold to Close final batch of $GLW Feb 1st 30 calls for 3.27. Netted about 60% profit (bought for 1.92 on Monday).
Sold to close some of the $EBAY Feb 1st 33.5 puts for .61. Straddles bought yesterday for 2.23. This one will be tough to breakeven, unless we get a rally over next couple days.
#Earnings $CRUS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +3.10%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -7.01%
May 2, 2018 AC -1.53%
Feb. 5, 2018 AC -3.31%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -0.42%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -6.89%
May 3, 2017 AC +0.10%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -14.00% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +6.85%
July 27, 2016 AC +19.27% Biggest UP
April 26, 2016 AC +12.38%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC +16.38%
Avg (+ or -) 7.60%
Bias 2.08%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 38.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.03 to 40.97
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.11 to 40.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.3%): 30.68 to 45.32
Open for requests on other symbols.
#CoveredCalls #LongStock Sold to Open $PVTL Feb 15th 18 calls for .75
#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74%
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%
April 20, 2016 AC +14.06% Biggest UP
Jan. 27, 2016 AC -15.65% Biggest DOWN (the only DOWN)
Avg (+ or -) 5.38%
Bias 2.77%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 189.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 117.65 to 202.15
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 179.69 to 200.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.7%): 160.18 to 219.62
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC +15.83% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.14%
Bias -0.46%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 117.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 109.04 to 125.96
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 109.11 to 125.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 98.90 to 136.10
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC +7.19%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC +15.52% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.01%
Bias 1.17%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 146.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.11 to 155.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 137.22 to 154.78
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 118.32 to 173.68
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Market Reminders for tomorrow:
GDP numbers at 8:30am ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2pm ET
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 30th 2565/2585/2685/2705 iron condors for 1.00
I switched back to selling because IV on this chain is over 16% and HV dipped below IV.
#Earnings $EBAY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Bought $EBAY Feb 1st 33.5 straddle for 2.23.
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +5.87%
July 18, 2018 AC -10.11%
April 25, 2018 AC -5.58%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +13.82% Biggest UP
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -1.79%
July 20, 2017 AC -1.53%
April 19, 2017 AC -3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +4.99%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC -10.76%
July 20, 2016 AC +10.89%
April 26, 2016 AC +3.18%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC -12.45% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias -0.62%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 33.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 31.39 to 35.81
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 31.46 to 36.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 29.17 to 38.53
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings Sold to Open $BA Feb 1st 345/350/380/385 #IronCondor for 1.78. About 3.8% on downside and 4.5% on upside.
#Earnings $BA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 BO +1.31%
July 25, 2018 BO -0.65%
April 25, 2018 BO +4.19%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +4.93%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO -2.84%
July 26, 2017 BO +9.87% Biggest UP
April 26, 2017 BO -0.98%
Jan. 25, 2017 BO +4.24%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO +4.68%
July 27, 2016 BO +0.82%
April 27, 2016 BO +2.88%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -8.92% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias 1.63%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 365.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 350.40 t0 380.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 351.39 to 379.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.9%): 329.43 to 401.57
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $TSLA reports Wednesday night. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +0.87%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +2.13%
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +4.73%
Avg (+ or -) 6.40%
Bias 0.19%, no significant directional bias on earnings.
With stock at 295.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 263.33 to 326.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 276.11 to 313.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 247.27 to 342.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $AMD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 3-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday. These moves are bigger than 1-day moves. This stock can move BIG.
Wed 10/24/2018 AC -22.64%
Wed 07/25/2018 AC +18.01%
Wed 04/25/2018 AC +14.42%
Tue 01/30/2018 AC -3.26%
Tue 10/24/2017 AC -16.91%
Tue 07/25/2017 AC -1.13%
Mon 05/01/2017 AC -25.84% Biggest DOWN
Tue 01/31/2017 AC +18.03%
Thu 10/20/2016 AC -6.32%
Thu 07/21/2016 AC +11.87%
Thu 04/21/2016 AC +52.29% Biggest UP
Tue 01/19/2016 AC +3.58%
Avg (+ or -) 16.19%
Bias 3.51%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 19.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 17.19 to 22.01
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 16.43 to 22.77
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (52.3%): 9.35 to 29.85
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $GLW Feb 1st 30 calls for 3.10. Straddles bought for 1.92 yesterday. I closed two-thirds of my position. Holding the rest for potentially higher prices into Friday.
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: One-day moves are listed, but I included the extremes for 3-day moves as well. As you can see, big moves were followed by continuation for the three days following earnings.
*****NOTE #2: the EXPECTED move (per TOS) is higher than the Maximum 1-day historical moves. A bigger than usual move is expected, which could just mean options are overpriced. Note, however, that the three-day moves exceed the expected.
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN — 3-day = -8.31%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +5.08% Biggest UP — 3-day = +12.5%
May 5, 2016 BO +3.96%
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -3.76%
Avg (+ or -) 3.11%
Bias 0.03%, no directional bias on earnings.
With stock at 157.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 146.67 to 167.33
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 152.11 to 161.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.9%): 147.74 to 166.26
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 3-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday. These moves are slightly bigger than 1-day moves.
Thu 11/01/2018 AC -6.63%
Tue 07/31/2018 AC +9.30% Biggest UP
Tue 05/01/2018 AC +8.71%
Thu 02/01/2018 AC -4.34%
Thu 11/02/2017 AC +2.61%
Tue 08/01/2017 AC +4.22%
Tue 05/02/2017 AC +0.98%
Tue 01/31/2017 AC +6.37%
Tue 10/25/2016 AC -3.83%
Tue 07/26/2016 AC +7.79%
Tue 04/26/2016 AC -10.16% Biggest DOWN
Tue 01/26/2016 AC -2.65%
Avg (+ or -) 5.63%
Bias 1.03%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 157.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 148.24 to 165.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 148.16 to 165.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.2%): 141.05 to 172.95
Open for requests on other symbols.
But #VXXGame lives on.
The big short volatility edition:
10 year ago $VXX was introduced.
Tomorrow $VXX dies.
Every long died along the way. pic.twitter.com/FZpH7RUbKf— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) January 29, 2019
#Earnings Bought to open $GLW Feb 1st 30 straddle for 1.92. I only need around the average move on this to be profitable.
#SPX1dte closed last batch for .35. Definitely missed my chances for higher profit, but still another win. It will be interesting to see how this will work on a flat day. It will be a losing trade, but will be able to recoup some of the debit in the morning as put premium is usually still hanging on.
Condors bought Friday for .70. Sold today for 1.20, avg price.
#Earnings $GLW reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 5-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday.
Tue 10/23/2018 BO -0.45%
Wed 07/25/2018 BO +12.44% Biggest UP
Tue 04/24/2018 BO -0.99%
Tue 01/30/2018 BO -8.68%
Tue 10/24/2017 BO +5.01%
Wed 07/26/2017 BO -8.96%
Tue 04/25/2017 BO +4.83%
Tue 01/24/2017 BO +7.71%
Tue 10/25/2016 BO -5.06%
Wed 07/27/2016 BO +2.34%
Tue 04/26/2016 BO -10.96% Biggest DOWN
Tue 01/26/2016 BO +11.03%
Avg (+ or -) 6.54%
Bias 0.69%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 30.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 28.33 to 32.27
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 28.32 to 32.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 26.53 to 34.07
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $BIIB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 5-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday.
Tue 10/23/2018 BO -4.87%
Tue 07/24/2018 BO -4.95%
Tue 04/24/2018 BO +6.75%
Thu 01/25/2018 BO +3.46%
Tue 10/24/2017 BO -6.33% Biggest DOWN
Tue 07/25/2017 BO +0.96%
Tue 04/25/2017 BO -2.04%
Thu 01/26/2017 BO +1.03%
Wed 10/26/2016 AC -5.49%
Thu 07/21/2016 BO +9.50% Biggest UP
Thu 04/21/2016 BO +7.13%
Wed 01/27/2016 BO +5.07%
Avg (+ or -) 4.80%
Bias 0.85%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 333.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 316.16 to 349.84
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 317.02 to 348.98
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 301.37 to 364.64
Open for requests on other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold a third of the $SPX Jan 28th 2620/2600 put spreads for 2.00. Condors bought for .70 on Friday.
#SPX1dte Bought to Open $SPX Jan 28th 2600/2620-2700/2720 iron condors for .70.
Filled after bell, Jan28th IV only 8.7%; expected move 18.77. HV still above IV, but dropping. ATR 43.35.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar #LongStock #Assignment #Dividends
Sold to close $INTC Feb 1st 50 put for 3.20. Will be assigned long stock for 50.00. Add .54 for calendar purchase, subtract 3.20 from put sale, cost basis 47.34.
Will sell calls and hang on to stock for at least one dividend round.
#SPX1dte Was hoping gov’t reopening might give us a final spike, but the spike was in the wrong direction.
Closed last batch of $SPX call spreads for 1.00. Bought for .70, closed for 1.62 avg price.
Trump scheduled to speak soon, expected to announce a deal to (at least temporarily) re-open government.
BIG WEEK:
*GDP Wednesday at 8:30am ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement, Wednesday 2pm ET
*January Jobs Report, Friday 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=28&month=1&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Earnings A few that were added late and just updated on the chart:
ILMN and AMD next Tuesday, Jan 29th, after market.
TSLA next Wednesday, Jan 30th, after market.
#Earnings $CAT reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 5-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire next Friday.
Tue 10/23/2018 BO -10.61% Biggest DOWN
Mon 07/30/2018 BO -2.82%
Tue 04/24/2018 BO -6.02%
Thu 01/25/2018 BO -3.42%
Tue 10/24/2017 BO +4.66%
Tue 07/25/2017 BO +5.47%
Tue 04/25/2017 BO +5.62%
Thu 01/26/2017 BO -1.38%
Tue 10/25/2016 BO -2.45%
Tue 07/26/2016 BO +5.17%
Fri 04/22/2016 BO -1.28%
Thu 01/28/2016 BO +7.51% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.70%
Bias 0.04%, no directional bias on earnings.
With stock at 135.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 127.97 to 143.53
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 129.37 to 142.13
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.6%): 121.35 to 150.15
Open for requests on other symbols.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
I played this one badly this week. I had rolled last week to ITM Feb 1st 67 calls. I had the chance Tuesday to close for a profit with the pull back all the way down below 68. But I foolishly went by sentiment rather than reality: I thought weakness would continue through the week. That’s what I “thought”. In reality, it was simply a must-exit opportunity. Sold the calls for 5.75… could have exited for less than 3.00.
Now, they’re going for 10.50 as SQ resumes its strong rally.
Lesson learned. When ITM on calls, take any opportunity to exit. Don’t wait for a .30 exit.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to Close $ETFC Jan25/Feb01 50 dbl cal for .50. Bought for .52 yesterday, so bitty loss.
Will include other closures in comments.
#SPX1dte Sold to close another third of $SPX Jan 25th 2765/2695 long call spreads for 2.25. Now profitable in all accounts. Waiting to watch action to sell last batch.
#Welcome I usually have all comments show up automatically under Bistro posts. But occasionally they’ll stop showing and it will display “Show Comments”, and I’ll need to click that to reveal comments.
This means you need to remove website data. On a Mac with Safari:
–> navigate to Safari > Preferences >Privacy> Manage Website Data. Search for WordPress.com and then Remove. Next, search for OptionsBistro.com and Remove again.
You then may need to re-log-in to WordPress, but this should fix the issue.
Not sure how to do this on a PC, but basically you are removing cookies and website data for WordPress and OptionsBistro.
#SPX1dte Filled on an order I put in for overnight swings.
Sold partial position, $SPX Jan 25th 2675/2695 call spreads for 1.60. Condors bought for .70 last night.
That covers cost of trade on some accounts (where I closed half) and most of the cost on other accounts (where I closed a third). Will look for a higher move to close the remainder.
#SPX1dte First time I’m altering this… SPX IV on tomorrow’s expiration is only 13% (in December, 1-day IV was between 21-33 all month). Historical Vol is running much higher than Implied Vol (daily chart), meaning options are underpriced. Daily ATR(14) is at 44.37, which is far above the 2018 average, even including Febd thru April.
On most days, my strikes will NOT be breached. But intraday swings will produce profitable exit opportunities. And on the days the strikes WILL be breached, profit can be 10x-20x, allowing me plenty of days that can result in losses. Also let’s me sleep easier knowing my losses are capped at the purchase price.
So, I’m developing a system to determine which conditions are best for switching from selling to buying. I believe the volatility levels described above are a sweet spot.
Bought to open $SPX Jan 25th 2570/2590-2675/2695 iron condors for .70.
Exit plan is to sell half (or a third) at first opportunity of swing, then hold the remainder for follow through.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar $CL average move 2.43%
Bought $CL Jan25/Feb01 62 double calendars for .36 (remarkable fill for such wide bid/ask spread)
Bought $INTC Jan25/Feb01 50 double calendars for .54
Bought $ETFC Jan25/Feb01 50 double calendars for .52
#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -1.93%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +5.41% Biggest UP
July 28, 2016 AC -11.52%
April 28, 2016 AC -11.28%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC +5.01%
Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias -4.38%, significant negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 40.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 36.81 to 43.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 37.17 to 42.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 32.73 to 47.27
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
July 19, 2016 AC +4.63%
April 19, 2016 AC +3.34%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC +1.89%
Avg (+ or -) 4.12%
Bias 1.36%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 530.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 506.06 to 553.94
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 508.18 to 551.82
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 486.70 to 573.30
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $LRCX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +1.31%
July 26, 2018 AC +7.19% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC -4.03%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -4.99% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +3.05%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.12%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.85%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -2.21%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC -2.78%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.21%
April 20, 2016 AC -2.23%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC +2.88%
Avg (+ or -) 3.40%
Bias 0.34%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 138.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 130.44 to 145.56
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.30 to 142.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.2%): 128.08 to 147.92
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $XLNX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +15.00% Biggest UP
July 25, 2018 AC +9.59%
April 25, 2018 AC +1.69%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.08%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC -0.12%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.26%
April 26, 2017 AC +7.35%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -3.67%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +0.96%
July 27, 2016 AC +2.50%
April 27, 2016 AC -8.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 20, 2016 AC +8.58%
Avg (+ or -) 5.46%
Bias 2.15%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 88.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.47 to 94.53
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 83.67 to 93.33
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.0%): 75.23 to 101.78
Open for requests on other symbols.
#SPX1dte Upside stop level was hit early, but now pulling back sharply.
Closed the short puts for .05. Looking to close short calls for best price I can get.
Trade sold yesterday for .95: $SPX Jan 23rd 2555/2575-2665/2685
#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +9.57% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC +0.32%
April 20, 2016 AC +5.53%
Jan. 20, 2016 AC -0.56%
Avg (+ or -) 4.66%
Bias -0.09%, no significant positive or negative bias.
With stock at 159.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 149.10 to 168.90
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 151.58 to 166.42
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 143.78 to 174.22
Open for requests on other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 23rd 2575/2555 put spreads for .55. Looking to add the call spread on any bounce; hopefully before 3pm ET.
#Earnings Who knows when $WYNN will report? Estimates range from tonight until the 28th. IV on TOS shows it could be this week or next. As you can see from the past dates, they tend to announce in different weeks every quarter.
Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC +15.83% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.14%
Bias -0.46%, no significant positive or negative bias, just tends to move.
With stock at 111.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 105.24 to 116.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 103.07 to 118.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 93.43 to 128.57
Open for requests on other symbols.
#PieTrades #ShortPuts Sold to Open $T April 31 puts for 1.60.
Replicating my Oct 24th-Jan 18th successful trade. This time it is Jan 22nd to April 18th.
Assignment would be fine on a high-div tock, becomes a PieTrade with covered calls.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jan 22nd 2630/2610 put spreads for 1.20. Condor sold for .95 on Friday. Suffered from poor entry in the last hour on Friday, so my put spread was simply too high to survive this minor (so far) pullback. I’ll be looking to enter these earlier in the day.
#VXXGame #LongLEAPs
Bought to open $VXXB Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.75.
A starter position for a 12-month trade. My bigger target will be the 2021 LEAPs, which are still pretty expensive, but should lower in value by late summer, provided we don’t enter a bear market. I may also look at ATM puts and sell puts against them, but this OTM position is meant to be a cheaper play that stands alone without cost reduction.
#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-DAY moves over the last 12 quarters.
(I used 3-day moves since Friday is 4 days away, and the 3-day range is higher than the 1-day).
Tue 10/16/2018 AC -11.04%
Wed 07/18/2018 AC +1.27%
Tue 04/17/2018 AC -9.95%
Thu 01/18/2018 AC -3.99%
Tue 10/17/2017 AC +10.60%
Tue 07/18/2017 AC -4.49%
Tue 04/18/2017 AC -5.68%
Thu 01/19/2017 AC +2.24%
Mon 10/17/2016 AC -2.09%
Mon 07/18/2016 AC +0.36%
Mon 04/18/2016 AC -2.11%
Tue 01/19/2016 AC -4.37%
Avg (+ or -) 4.85%
Bias -2.44%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 123.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 116.94 to 130.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 117.51 to 129.49
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 109.87 to 137.13
Open for requests on other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 22nd 2715/2735 call spreads for .45. Legging in as I see us going lower into the close. Will sell puts soon.
#VXXGame Bought to Open $UVXY Feb 15th 100 calls for .36. I want to have room to sell premium if we get another market pull back. If we don’t, then small loss. (these reached a peak of 13.00 in late December)
#Earnings #Double Calendar Sold to close remaining parts of $MS Jan18/Jan25 45 double calendar for .131. Bought for .33 on Wednesday, plus paid .03 to close short calls yesterday.
So one small loss and a breakeven on this strategy so far. Oddly enough, the better play for neutral option strategies this week was NFLX. It’s upside world.
Markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King holiday.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=21&month=1&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
When I closed down the application, it says “saving configuration.” How do I save configuration without closing the application?
Options Bistro 