#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order earlier:
$SPX Dec 8th 2585/2555 for .30. Sold for 4.00 as a #ReverseRoll
The Dec 29th 2710/2735 call spread I sold Friday for 1.50 opened today over 3.50. It is now 1.70. I think I will let live to see another day rather than stopping it. If we go negative I will sell a new put spread.
These seem to be some pretty significant differences. Not sure how smoothly the conference will go to reconcile the two. Full story: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/republican-house-and-senate-tax-plan-differences.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
#Markets I agree with Paul’s sentiment and I am currently playing it this way. Seems once the bill is passed (assuming it will be), that the euphoria will abate and we’ll be stuck with negative headlines from the Mueller investigation. Right now I think we may be entering more of a consolidation phase, or slower trickle up, until the final bill is passed.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/jim-paulsen-buy-stocks-before-final-tax-cut-passage-but-sell-after.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
#Earnings One of our favorite earnings trades is back. After a pretty deep dip, premium is decent, although bid/ask spreads are wide and OI is low. So beware.
Sold $AZO Dec 8th 615/780 strangle for 4.50. It took awhile to get filled. Put in an order for a second one at 4.75.
AZO’s ONE-day moves over last 12 quarters: Biggest UP move: 5.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.8%, Average move: 2.8%.
It’s FIVE-day moves are actually less extreme… it seems to retrace any large one-day moves over the following days: Biggest UP move: 4.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.7%, Average move: 2.5%.
My strikes are +11.4% and -12.1% OTM.
#SPXcampaign I’m resuming selling call spreads as the upside move is likely at least slowing if not consolidating. That said, I will later be rolling the OTM call spread I sold Friday.
Sold to Open Jan 5th 2740/2765 call spreads for 1.50.
Closed on GTC order:
SPX Dec 14th 2485/2460 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Nov 14th.
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep Bistro features updated
JOBS report is this Friday, 8:30am ET
#SPXcampaign #OptionsExpiration
After the bell, sold $SPX Dec 29th 2710/2735 call spreads for 1.85.
After the bell, sold $SPX Dec 20th 2590/2615 call spreads for 20.50. This replaces one of three ITM call spreads I closed before this recent rally.
#Exercised SPX Dec 1st 2615 long calls, for 26.80. Coupled with the earlier cover of the shorts at 9.30, that’s 17.50 for a 15-wide spread. Bought for 2.25 last Friday. Half sold for 9.00 on Tuesday, so average profit of 11.00 for the whole position.
#SPXcampaign Wish I’d done this near the lows but it was too nerve-wracking… closed the short leg of the long $SPX Dec 1st 2615/2630 call spread for 9.30. Waiting for higher prices to close the long leg, hopefully netting more than the 15.00 I would have made had I let the whole spread expire ITM. Better not crash on me now!
I’ve added my @OptionsBistro twitter feed and also some CNBC RSS feeds to the right hand column. I’ll be altering or changing these as I monitor content. Any suggestions for RSS feeds, let me know, and if you see a good tweet you can forward it to my Twitter handle @OptionsBistro, and I’ll consider retweeting so it shows up below.
#SPXcampaign I’m looking to sell an ITM call spread (Dec 20th 2590/2615). Waiting to see how much bounce we can get. Also plan to sell a Dec 29 call spread with short about 2710.
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Closed these positions to avoid volatility later today:
$RH Dec 1st 95 puts for .20. Sold for 1.77 avg price
$RH Dec 1st 100 put for 1.00. Sold for 3.07 avg price
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/senate-republicans-appear-confident-they-have-the-votes-to-pass-tax-bill.html
#VIXIndicator Based on the indicator, the upside warning just got canceled by the Flynn spike. However, two things to note: the VIX low from last Friday seemed to be an odd tick, but that low is the reason the Indicator cancels the warning. Second, this volatility could be only violent spiking due to the sudden breaking news. A better determination can be made in a couple hours.
I think this is probably a dip to be bought, given that tax news is more a market driver. If Flynn is damaging to Trump, it will be a long time before the extent of any damage is fully known. Other thoughts?
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/us-stock-futures-data-opec-tax-on-the-agenda.html
The firm is waiving commissions and giving free trades to some clients
https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/12/01/fidelity-offers-reparations-to-customers-after-website-outage/?reflink=e2twmkts
#SPXcampaign After the bell, this filled: $SPX Dec 29th 2540/2515 put spreads for 1.50. Standard weekly spread, the highest I’ve ever sold.
#Earnings #ShortStrangles Closing a few of these ahead of tomorrow’s expiration as $RH has had many strong swings lately.
Closed RH Dec 1st 100 put for .70. Sold for 3.08 avg price
Closed RH Dec 1st 105 call for .20. Sold for 2.12 avg price
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC orders:
$SPX Dec 4th 2570/2545 put spreads for .25. Sold for 4.00 last week.
$SPX Dec 29th 2375/2350 put spreads for .25. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 3.35 on Oct 25th.
$SPX Dec 1st 2615/2590 put spreads for .40. Sold for 4.80 on Tuesday.
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DUST Jan 30 call for 1.50.
Anyone have suggestions for the best Twitter feeds to follow for market-moving breaking news?
#SPXcampaign He just signaled he will vote “yes,” so higher we go. My only remaining call spread jumped quickly past my stop.
Stopped $SPX Dec 29th 2595/2720 call spreads for 4.20. Sold for 1.50 2 days ago.
#ReverseRoll Sold Dec 6th 2640/2615 put spreads for 6.50.
Wish I had more long spreads. As of now, I have one and a half positions completely ITM.
#SXPcampaign Closed $SPX Dec 29th 2655/2680 call spread for 6.70. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 3.35 on Oct 25th.
This is my final SPX call spread that has hit stop levels (in this case, gone past it). I’m waiting to roll this as my put spread load is big. Another nice push higher and I can begin selling calls again. Only call spread left is the one I sold yesterday, Dec 29th 2695/2720.
#SPXcampaign Another reverse roll as I just don’t want to see my two remaining call spreads rack higher and higher in premium.
Stopped $SPX Dec 22nd 2555/2580 call spreads for 6.45. Sold for 1.55 last week.
#ReverseRoll Sold to Open $SPX Dec 18th 2630/2605 put spreads for 8.05.
#Earnings Still milking $RH for premium before earnings next week. I’m in the hole from its recent jump higher.
STO RH Dec 1st 105 call for 1.30, adding
BTC RH Dec 1st 95 put for .15. Sold for 1.74 avg price.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Close $SPX Dec 1st 2615/2630 call spreads for 9.00. Bought Friday for 2.25.
Keeping other half until Friday. Also still holding Dec 8th 2620/2640 spreads bought yesterday for 3.50.
#SPXcampaign Okay, so I finally sold some calls… put in an order I didn’t think would fill, but…
Sold $SPX Dec 29th 2695/2720 call spreads for 1.50.
#VXXGame #StrangleRoll
Closed $SVXY Feb 115 call for 12.75. Sold in the 80/115 strangle for 13.85
Closed SVXY Dec 15th 95 put for .93. Sold for 5.25 on Oct 20th
Sold SVXY March 75 put for 4.10
Selling SVXY June 150 call for 10.00 (not filled yet)
#VIXIndicator Checking in on the progress of this upside warning, referencing my post from the weekend:
https://optionsbistro.com/2017/11/25/upside-warning-in-effect-2/
The predicted HOD’s, based on the average of all highs from past Upside Warnings, measuring from the close on the warnings day (which in the current case was Friday, 11/24):
Mon, Nov 27 Predicted: 0.44% 2,613.87 Actual: +0.15% 2,606.41
Tue, Nov 28 Predicted: 0.46% 2,614.42 Actual: +0.73% 2621.31 (thus far)
So we fell short yesterday, but have gone over today. Of the 4 occurrences this happened before (mild rally first day of Warning, strong rally on second), the averages are:
Day 1 +0.78%
Day 2 +1.43%
Day 3 +1.76%
Day 4 +2.15%
…and then levels off for a few days. Not enough data to make conclusions there, but fun to look at anyway.
#SPXcampaign Jumping on this train that I don’t think will stop until 2630 (at least)
Closed $SPX Dec 1st 2625/2650 call spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.70 on Oct 31st.
Sold Dec 1st 2615/2590 put spreads for 4.80. This more than covers that roll, also can help cover the one I stopped earlier.
Assumes not much pullback before Friday. That’s what I think is in the cards.
I have only two more short call spreads, currently at 3.40 (Dec 22 2655/2680) and 4.60 (Dec 29 same strikes). I’m going to leave them for today.
The VIX seems to be living in a separate universe… swinging wildly today as markets just march higher.
#LongPutDiagonals I got out of all short puts awhile back, letting my $VXX Jan ’19 long 20 puts to prosper unheeded. Mid-price currently 3.60, with avg purchase was 1.77. I anticipate closing these next fall for over 10.00.
Closed $VXX Dec 15th 30 call for 1.75. Sold for 6.50 (avg price) in October. Leaving one more to exit cheaper.
#SPXcampaign Answer: just get out of short call spreads.
Stopped $SPX Dec 8th 2635/2660 call spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.51 on Nov 10th.
Waiting to roll.
#SPXcampaign It’s off to the races on the Upside Warning once again.
Stopped: $SPX Dec 14th 2640/2665 call spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.50 on Nov 16th.
Trying to #ReverseRoll, maybe I could get a small pullback? Too much to ask?
#Earnings #EarlyAssignment #LongStock
I was assigned on all $STMP Dec 1st 200/180 put spreads, so now I only carry long stock. I just sold the last long put for 4.00. With all the selling of naked options, put spreads, and finally the long puts left after short puts in the spreads were assigned, my cost basis is 179.62. About where we’re trading now. I’ll start peeling this off before it returns to 200.
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX Nov 29th 2585/2560 put spreads for .40. Sold for 10.15 on Nov 15th.
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, closed $SPX Dec 14th 2450/2425 put spreads for .30. Sold for 1.55 on Nov 14th.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 29th 2500/2475 put spreads for 1.45.
Bought to Open Dec 8th 2620/2640 call spreads for 3.50.
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Nov 27th 2490/2465 put spread for .20. Sold for 2.00 on Wednesday.
Stopped SPX Dec 14th 2635/2660 call spreads for 3.35. Sold for 1.90 on Nov 14th.
#ReverseRoll Sold Dec 8th 2585/2555 put spreads for 4.00. (I meant to do 25-wide, but mistakenly sold 30-wide).
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
NOTE: November JOBS report will be released on Friday, December 8th.
#VIXIndicator. Once again, the dip was quickly bought and a new Upside Warning went into effect on Friday. The VIX also notched an all-time low; if the CBOE does not correct it as a glitch. The VIX was wavering around 9.60 on Friday at the closing bell, and then briefly dipped down to tag 8.56, which is it’s lowest reading ever. It quickly jumped back to close at 9.67. So it may have been a bad tick, but if not corrected it is the new record low.
An Upside Warning is a reliable signal of a rally higher. Since Jan 1, 2000 (HOD=high of day)
31 upside warnings
25 times the HOD on 5th day was above the close of the Warning day
21 times the HOD on the 10th day was above the close of the Warning day
21 times the HOD was over 1% higher on any day within the first 10 days after the Warning
18 times the HOD was over 2% higher on any day within the first 20 days after the Warning
Looking at the highs of the day from all 31 occurrences, here are the expected moves UP from the close on Friday (2602.42).
Mon, Nov 27 0.44% 2,613.87
Tue, Nov 28 0.46% 2,614.42
Wed, Nov 29 0.48% 2,614.85
Thu, Nov 30 0.46% 2,614.29
Fri, Dec 1 0.59% 2,617.71
Sat, Dec 2 0.56% 2,616.98
Sun, Dec 3 0.77% 2,622.40
Mon, Dec 4 0.92% 2,626.44
Tue, Dec 5 0.89% 2,625.65
Wed, Dec 6 1.02% 2,628.99
These are averages, so the actual move will tend to be sharper or more gradual.
Right after the bell the VIX notched 8.56, and then jumped back up immediately. Not sure what causes that, and unless they retract it as a bad tick, it’s a new all-time low.
#SPXcampaign To lessen the pressure if we do pullback Monday, and to take nice profits:
Closed $SPX Dec 1st 2570/2545 put spreads for .75. Sold for 6.50 on Nov 14th.
No expirations today… have a great weekend all!
#SPXcampaign On the small pullback:
Closed $SPX Dec 4th 2575/2600 call spreads for 19.55. Sold for 14.00 last week.
Bought to open SPX Dec 1st 2615/2630 LONG call spreads for 2.25
#SPXcampaign Upside Warning looks imminent. Getting long.
Closed on GTC order: $SPX Dec 8th 2480/2455 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.44 on Nov 10th.
Closed Dec 1st 2565/2590 call spreads for 22.15. Sold for 15.60 last week. Waiting to roll.
Working on buying some short term call spreads. Also rolling one of these recently closed ITM call spreads into an #IronButterfly or #InverseCondor.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 22nd 2655/2680 call spreads for 1.60.
VIX is up today while SPX is also up. This has not been too unusual in the last year of soaring indices. If we can stay below 10.17 today, it will mean Upside Warning. That said, I feel comfortable with this distance OTM, as it will be easy to roll should the rally be strong.
#LongStock #CoveredCalls
Sold $FB Dec 15th 185 call for 1.53
Also highest TICK reading sine early Sept.
SVXY new all-time high
VXX and UVXY all-time lows
#SPXcampaign Tried to catch the lows but ended up chasing back up.
Sold $SPX Nov 27th 2590/2565 put spreads for 2.00. Expires Monday.
Sold Dec 22nd 2510/2485 for 1.45.
Also, yesterday, closed Nov 29th 2565/2590 call spreads for 21.75. Sold for 13.50 on Nov 15th. Waiting for bigger swings to sell this roll.
#Earnings #LongStock #Rolling #CoveredCalls
$RH #ShortStrangles Dumped my final Dec 1st short 95 call for 8.50, and 80 puts for .10. Then the stock annoyingly dropped, after I’d closed the whole batch for high prices. I gotta ways to go to make up for it. I’m keeping new sales at the Dec 1st expiration, before earnings:
Sold 100 put for 3.50, adding to position
Sold 95 put for 2.65, adding to position
Sold 105 call for 2.95
$FB BTC Dec 1st 187.5 call for .12. Sold for 1.25 on 11/3. I’ll sell a new one on next rally.
$LITE Sold a fourth of my stock for 58.20. Cost basis 60.50. Looks to be recovering so will wait on the rest, with stops in place.
$STMP Assigned another 100 shares last night, disrupting my Dec 1st 200/180 put spread. Will sell the long put today. This leaves me with one remaining put spread and 200 shares.
$HCA This stock was sold for 75.29.by my broker on Friday afternoon due to margin concerns (futzing with SPX spreads). Not thrilled about this, but it has been an annoying one. An 80 covered call also expired Friday, so I’m now flat. Cost basis was 84.00 so that was a crappy loss.
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Dec 22nd 2640/2665 call spreads for 2.95. Sold for 1.60 yesterday.
Sold to Open SPX Dec 1st 2585/2560 put spreads for 3.20.
I’m preparing for the possibility of another upside warning, which could bring us to 2630 before Dec 1st. I’m going to hold off on the sale of regular call spreads, close my remaining ITM call spreads and roll them into puts or wait for higher SPX prices before I roll them again.
Also, closed on GTC order: Nov 27th 2560/2535 put spreads for .40. Sold for 2.90.
SPX, RUT, and Nasdaq at all-time highs.
All #VXXGame products at all time highs and lows (VXX, UVXY, SVXY).
VIX below the 78.6% from last week’s peaks. Two more days below 10.17 is a fresh Upside Warning.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Dec 22nd 2495/2470 put spreads for 1.45.
Closed on GTC orders:
Dec 1st 2480/2455 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.47 on Oct 30th.
Dec 1st 2490/2465 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Nov 3rd.
#VXXGame Rolled $SVXY Dec 15th 105 calls to March 125 for .25 credit
Open was highest TICK reading since early September
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, closed on GTC order: $SPX Nov 22nd 2560/2535 put spreads for .30. Sold for 2.80.
After market close yesterday, Sold Dec 4th 2575/2600 call spreads for 13.40 as an #ITMroll. Wish I’d waited until this morning!
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Nov 20th 2580/2555 for .35. Sold for 3.10 on Friday.
Closed Nov 27th 2580/2555 put spreads for 3.88. Sold for 6.55.
#Rolling Sold Dec 4th 2570/2545 put spreads for 4.00.
Closed Nov 27th 2570/2595 call spreads for 14.55. Sold for 16.00 last Monday.
#ITMroll Selling Dec 4th 2575/2600 call spreads, no fill yet
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Dec 22nd 2640/2665 call spreads for 1.60.
Closed SPX Nov 24th 2535/2510 put spreads for .35. Sold for 1.95.
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep Bistro features updated.
#ContangoETFs BTC $DUST Dec 15th call for .10. Sold for 1.25 on Sept 20th. Now I have no positions in DUST or NUGT. Waiting for whichever one makes a strong rally and I’ll sell calls again.
#LongCalls I didn’t post this (sorry) because it’s not my usual forte to buy calls, but on Nov 7th…
Bought two (2) $SQ March 50 calls for .85. They are trading at 3.50 today. I have been trying to add some other calls, and maybe even some #LongCallDiagonals but I never get any kind of pullback.
In the same vein, and for the same reasons (I think mobile pay is the future) I also
Bought two (2) $PYPL April 90 calls for .65 on Oct 26th. Also up but not as much as Square.
I don’t think either are done going up, but it would be nice to have an entry opportunity.
In pre-market, closed $SPX Nov 27th 2600/2625 for 2.95. Sold for 3.40.
#ReverseRoll Sold Nov 20th 2580/2555 put spreads for 3.10. These expire Monday.
Closed Nov 24th 2560/2585 call spreads for 18.40. Sold for 17.20 last week. Working on #ITMroll.
Closed Nov 17th 2575/2550 put spreads for .85. Sold for 5.80.
Sold Dec 14th (monthly) 2485/2460 put spreads for 1.50.
#Earnings #ShortStrangles #Rolling
After my $RH Dec 1st 80/95 strangle got crushed yesterday, I have been legging into new positions.
Closed Dec 1st 95 calls for 10.20, 11.75, 12.60 (still holding 2 more)
Sold Dec 1st 95 puts for 2.00 and 1.30
Sold Dec 1st 100 puts for 3.20 and 2.55
Closed Dec 1st 80 put for .40. These should be .05 now but premium is hanging on.
Sticking with Dec 1st, prior to earnings for now. Haven’t sold calls yet as that has been continuously futile. I will probably try a couple on peaks.
#SPXcampaign #Rolling #ITMroll
Sold $STMP Dec 1st 200/180 put spreads for 17.75. This replaces my 200/185 put spreads expiring today, which will debit me 15.00. I went wider to make up the credit, with a 2-lot. A third option was assigned early with 190.35 cost basis, which I will hold for the eventual move back to 200.
I’m intrigued by what @geewhiz112 and @las9427 mentioned about the New-High/New-Low indicator when I said I was suspending my Downside Warnings for assessment. I have found someone offering data going back to 1980 for a fee (McClellan), but I first wanted to check with y’all to see if anyone has access to the data. I would want back at least to 2001. Let me know if any ideas. Thanks!
#SPXcampaign Stopped $SPX Nov 17th 2590/2615 call spreads for 3.65. Sold for 2.50 on Tuesday. Although I closed many call spreads yesterday, I thought I could let this one expire. Not so. Will look to roll by day’s end. I don’t want to do anything too early as we’re back in freight train mode again.
#Earnings #Rolling #Assignment #LongStock
Before I had a chance to roll my $STMP Nov 17th 200/185 ITM put spreads, I was assigned 100 shares at 200.00. I sold the corresponding long put today for 9.35, so cost basis 190.65. Working on a roll of the rest as well as a covered call.
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Dec 14th 2640/2665 call spreads for 1.50.
#Earnings So they snuck out Q3 guidance ahead of their earnings date, straining my 80/95 strangle once again. I have adjusted it higher three times already, but had planned to be out before their earnings date. Would have been a nice exit on the calls yesterday as the stock dropped to 83.00. Now it’s over 100!
#SPXcampaign Closed a few more, without rolling yet:
Closed $SPX Nov 22nd 2590/2565 put spreads for 11.80. Sold for 8.60.
Closed Nov 22nd 2595/2620 call spreads for 1.90. Sold for 6.55
Closed Dec 1st 2630/2655 for .45. Sold for 1.60
Closed Nov 20th 2575/2600 call spreads for 5.85. Sold for 14.60 on Nov 6th.
#ReverseRoll Sold Nov 27th 2560/2535 put spreads for 5.40
Sold Nov 27th 2585/2560 put spreads for 10.15, as a partial roll of Nov 16th spread stopped this morning
Stopped Nov 17th 2560/2585 call spreads for 11.90. This was sold this morning for 9.40.
Sold Nov 29th 2565/2590 call spreads for 13.55, as an #ITMroll from Nov 22nd call stopped tis morning.
#SPXcampaign #VIXIndicator It’s becoming clear that Downside Warning needs to be scrapped. I’m taking it off the site and will determine a new strategy. The trigger will remain only as a set up for the eventual Upside Warning, which has been working like a charm.
#SPXcampaign Got stopped near the lows on some put spreads that were expiring today and tomorrow. Worst time to close them.
Stopped Nov 15th 2565/2540 put spreads for 8.10
#ReverseRoll Sold Nov 17th 2560/2585 call spreads for 9.40 (I will have to stop this by end of day if we don’t drop)
Stopped Nov 16th 2585/2560 put spreads for 16.90. No roll yet.
Stopped Nov 22nd 2555/2580 call spreads for 14.30. Rolling to a Nov 29th call spread as we move higher.
Well, if this does not turn into more of a correction, I will replace the Downside Warning with Iceman’s BTFD billboard. April was the last time we actually had some follow through on a downside warning, and it was only minor. Otherwise they have only meant buy the dip.
I can also say that the ITM call-spread rolling that worked beautifully before is NOT working for me this time. I experienced the usual drawdown, but have been stuck now with too many spreads close to the money and getting whipsawed on days like today. I am having to cease with selling rolls on some spreads I am closing, mainly because I need to get back to the standard strategy of 10-12 delta OTM spreads.
For now, I’m watching to see how the day ends. My main goal is to get call spreads closed while we’re down, as the inevitable move will be higher. However, we can’t shut the door on a correction before year’s end. I don’t know how much the delay of tax cuts will effect the market, but it is my opinion that nothing will be passed before Christmas. That could mean a deeper correction, but more likely a BTFD.
#VIXIndicator The Upside warning that started on Sept 22nd was finally canceled at the open today, as the VIX is now over 50% higher than its low on Nov 3rd. This constitutes a signal for the downside. A full downside warning will happen if we reach 14.38 today.
Options Bistro 