#supercharger
I have one running in AMZN, Jun 29 1697.5/1707.5 and it is under pressure. How long would you hold out, there are just a few days to go, before you just close out trying to salvage some credit? I had paid 8.28
Didn’t like the action during the last 40 minutes, closed and received 5.87, well within the 2x loss limit.
I’ve been eyeing the LABU chart as many of you trade it. Decided to dip my toe in with a fuzzy because I can more easily limit my risk.
BTO LABU Jul20 110c/110p/107p (1,-1,1) @ 6.20. Sold Jun29 115c @ 2.15.
#fuzzy
MU STO 59.5 put at 1.06 for next week.
Last trade until next week.
One more note on #pietrades. I have moved 60-80% of my portfolio to true #pietrades. 20-35% is one time opportunities and usually a #pietrade type scalp or earnings play or a #fuzzy, and 5% true speculative. I am trying to create and income replacement machine and seems to be working. Just need to avoid big losses like SVXY.
#coveredcallcampaign PBR PFE #fuzzy MCD
TT idea, bought July 10 covered call for 8.90. stock 9.44, call .54
Tradewise covered call, I was called away a couple months ago, was a good thing, getting back in, 36.63 for the stock, .50 for the July, 37 call, 36.13
MCD, rolled June 15, 167 to July 20 170 for .20. I have long Sept. 160 call, short 160 put and long 155 put.
EWZ is down another 5%.
Is it an opportunity to go long?
BA: I’ve got two of these on, a #CoveredBackRatio and an #UnbalancedDiagonal . The CBR had a virtual call assignment today, closing the full position for a net $2964 profit on an 8×4 setup. The UB I put on right before the close yesterday and is up smartly today.
TWTR: Opened a new Unbalanced Diagonal: Aug 37 call x10 @ 5.25, sold Jun 15 40.5 call x8 @.92. I’m really loving these unbalanced diagonals, how you can really bring the long strike up closer to ATM, thus lower risk, and at the same time bring the short call down closer to ATM (collect more $$), but the ratio makes the trade work so well.
SPY added a few more #Saf-T contracts. I’m still waiting for Saf-T shares to get called so I can reset them. I decided I make more profit waiting for full profit and paying the assignment fees, vs front running the assignment myself and giving up a few cents in order to save the fees.
I expect a really slow day from here on. It’s a “theta day” where I just sit back and catch the pennies.
Sue
With the Vol getting so low, is it a good time to buy some Leap calls in UVXY or VXX?
Some observations as I closed out another week. Good 3 weeks 🙂 the pull back a few weeks ago really helped.
1. Critical mass on accounts seems to be around 50k. At that point the compounding really starts to kick in and the account becomes self sustaining for positive theta, #pietrades, income trades. Trades that need to be adjusted do not seem to affect the account value as much at these levels as well. Trading 6 different accounts with different values, lowest $3500 so can really see the difference. Each contract adds a lot more cash each week. 5-10 contracts is where the income really starts to compound and pay off. Even 3 contracts is a lot better than 1 unless talking AMZN or PCLN.
2. Some names are just better than others. GM is out as soon as it closes this week. Names with perceived high volatility but don’t really move around a lot and have good premiums (0.5-1% per week minimum) do the best and are easier to adjust.
3. I try to suck all the time value out of an option but once down to 0.2 roll it for better theta decay.
4. defending trades, easier to do it before the option goes way ITM or better yet, roll it before it even gets there. You will loose a little in time value but by rolling earlier you can stay ahead and continually bring in credits. Now if it is sitting right ATM I will wait until the last minute to roll it but if there is any time left, easier to roll early.
5. Taking a slight directional bias really increases returns. Allows to sell puts closer to ATM and also time call sales better.
6. For small accounts the #supercharger seems to work the best. Better ROI than credit spreads, less adjusting, less risk overall (defined) and more cushion for pull backs as you are already deep ITM. However, have to work the spread on entry or the exit is not as profitable. For any of my accounts under 10k I will be doing a lot more of these. 10k and up probably #pietrades with some #fuzzies thrown in. Occasional #spycraft as well but to be honest the #supercharger are doing much better when we have pull backs and more consistent gains.
Sitting on my hands until Fri. Hopefully we have a pull back, at least a little one where no one gets crushed 🙂
May 31 #UnbalancedDiagonal LMT
This seems like an appropriate name for the trade developments from last night? The Unbalanced Diagonal replaces the back ratio with a time ratio. It should accomplish the same or better (significantly better on a directional trend) outcome with slightly less risk. I absolutely love the collaboration last night on this!! Thanks @fuzzballl for your discovery weeks ago of the time ratio!
Sue
Here’s my first trade:
LMT 1. Bought 5 Sep 310 calls @19.00 2. Sold 3 Jun8 320 calls @ 2.57
Max Risk: $8729, Weekly return on risk: 8%
Just two little trades today:
1. GRUB calls on #Fuzzy Leap decayed to .12 so rolled to Jun 15 106. Pocketed $800 in the roll, which is 5.1% of risk (Return on Risk) in 12 days.
2. TWTR #CoveredBackRatio Sep 30/33 12×8 @8.94 (Total risk = $8.94×400=$3,576). Sold June 8 34 calls @ .73, short call = 8.2% RoR. TWTR position is equal to $32.86 stock price, current price is $34.10.
#pietrades normally would have rolled/closed these tomorrow but there are only 4 of us in the office tomorrow (usually 14) so I doubt I would have any time to trade. Will be busy!
BTC MAR 139 puts for 1.70. After 2 rolls still made $459 in 2 weeks. Did not like the way the chart was starting to look. With gas/oil prices climbing may be less travel this summer.
This brings me to my next conclusion. It is debatable whether to trade individual tickers on #pietrades for the higher premiums than we get with ETFs vs taking advantage of some of the leveraged ETFs. Personally I am trying to move to ETFs, but the weekly premium dried up. Today might help. SMH still looked good for a week but IBB, XBI and the indexes all dropped their juicy premiums. So anyway, I have been doing this for several months now, I think it may be safer and easier to trade the leveraged products. You do not have single company risk, the premiums are high enough they are easy to roll. Yes in a big market drop they will get crushed but in looking at their histories most would be reverse split instead of liquidate like XIV/SVXY. Thoughts? Anyone see a risk I am missing?
So with that said with the recent splits looks like the list from a few days ago is still accurate but the liquidity is not all the way back on TQQQ and UPRO. I tried to #supercharger them but the market makers were not giving reasonable fills.
GM 37.5 CC expires 6.8. Was going to try to keep it for the dividend now but rolling only gives me .14 credit, not worth it. Hopefully I will be called out early for the dividend so I can use the cash somewhere more productive.
LABU STO 84 put for next week 8 DTE for 1.45
LABU rolled 85 put to next week 84 for 1.05 credit.
LABU rolled 85 put to next week 84 for 1.1 credit
AMAT rolled 51 CC to next week for 0.36 credit. Cost basis now 53.11 and will keep chipping away.
AMAT 50.5 CC rolled to next week for 0.42 credit. Cost basis now 49.93. Will allow assignment or roll again next week depending on premiums.
#spycraft closed the 15 DTE 265/262 pcs fro 0.25. sold for 0.24 so lost .1 and commissions.
#supercharger Found a good use for SOXL and BIB since they don’t have weeklies.
SOXL 22 DTE 125/130 vertical debit spread for 4.65. Should close for 5 credit close to the end. 30 + points ITM and still able to squeeze out 13-14% return for 22 days. That’s 169-182% annualized and easy to mange if it implodes.
Hope everyone has a great long weekend! Thanks to all those who served!!
I am holding #SyntheticStock position in $CELG. 105/105/100 for July. Last night I was assigned the 105 Puts.
I was still in the process of covering max loss by selling Calls and would have achieved this if the roof had not fallen in!
Would appreciate your thought’s on the the best way to handle this.
MU: I took $4200 profit on a covered LEAP #Fuzzy. One thing I know about MU is it has always provided good re-entry points (pull backs) after rallies.
MSFT: Rolled #AtomicFuzzy covered calls from May 25 to June 8, 100’s, collected $470 on roll
ISRG: Rolled LEAP fuzzy covered call from May 25 480 to June 1 465, collected $380 on roll
SPY x 3: Closed May 23 Jade Lizards for 50%, collected $991
SBUX: Added short backratio yesterday on news that non-paying guests are now free to displace paying guests, at shareholder expense. July 4×2 put backratio (60/57.5). I’d like to add to this or ladder in a longer expiration.
RHT: Added Dec bullish covered backratio: 150 c x8 + 160c -6, short 165 c x2 @1.50
ADBE: Added Oct bullish covered backratio: 230 c x10 + 240 c -5, short June 1 245 call -5 @2.14
#LongCalls Bought $AMBA June 15th 50 call for 3.90. Following a trade from SimplerOptions… their entry was on the rally day and they paid over 7.00. AMBA has been in a wide range and I think we’re nearing a short-term bottom.
AMZN BuPS
NFLX BuPS
Loss on SPX Call & Put 1SD Debit spreads
BBBY finally closed #Fuzzy with a bad loss on this one. 1 stupid trade by me.
#Fuzzy
Would like to get a few ideas for #FuzzyRepairs How do you handle them when under water. Still have a couple from Mid Feb reversal that I am adjusting but most are at a bigger loss than I would like.
Everything looks overcooked at the moment except the biotechs and some of the chips. You guys were busy yesterday, I was at the beach. Last week we need wetsuits, water warming up quickly!
#pietrades, #optionsexpiration, and assigned early
Expiring today or assigned early:
TNA 69 cc cost basis 64.87 and was assigned early so get to redeploy that capital early-thanks mr market
FAS 61 CC at 56.36 cb
FAS 61 CC at 59.31 cb and will reload this account Monday
FAS 61 cc at 53.91 cb and will reload something on Monday
FAS 63 CC at 60.53 cb and 100 shares at 63.14 so a minor loss but overall this account was profitable and will reload on Monday.
XME 35 CC at cb of 34.44 and will reload Monday. This is a tiny account now from the SVXY losses.
#pietrade rolls:
AMAT 49 put rolled up to 52.5 put for 0.53 credit. Total credit now 1.7 and if assigned cost basis 50.8
#pietrade new position starter
IBB 104.5 put at 1.15 credit so 103.35 cb if assigned and would take it there
malingerers
GM 38 CC at cost basis of 38.04 expires in 14 days. I will gladly get rid of it at a 0.04 loss just so I can use the $ somewhere else. This is week 17 of this trade, just stuck and this one sucks for #pietrades, it is off the list until the premiums double. Anyone else trading this one with me it is getting taken out of the rotation.
Additional trading thoughts now that I finally have all the SVXY cleared out from the Feb 6 losses and can finally use all 6 trading accounts again.
1. Capital preservation is key. Now that I have had 3 account blowing out losses, at age 45 and 47 realize I cannot afford to lose my capital base again, it is the only way I can replace my income.
2. Keeping segregated accounts that trade different tickers is ideal. This time SVXY only took out 2 accounts and small portions of 2 others. Had I not been diversified it would have been ugly and I would be working 7 days a week in the office and urgent care or ER just to try to make some back. Spread out the trading vehicles and even accounts, may save your bacon someday.
3. Trading for income is a great way to trade. Trading for extreme income and weekly is even better. Most of my losing trades can be converted to winners or break even by always bring in cash. Cash up front is easier to manage than trying to convert a losing directional trade.
4. #pietrades will make up the majority of my trades with some #supercharger s thrown in for the small accounts
5. Even with income trading you can target 50-100% annualized returns if you do it right. Guess we can call it extreme income trading!
6. Trading with the group has really helped my consistency. Thanks Bistro’ers 🙂 🙂
Hope everyone has a good expiration and Happy Mother’s Day!
Will have some trades ready for Monday morning.
One last announcement, we are still working out the details but I have had such good results with the #pietrades that I have been asked to become a contributor to the Options Income Blueprint service. Will keep you posted. It is mostly as a live and ongoing case study. I will not actually be sending out the recommendations, just how I am managing them live.
Finally STC #Fuzzy put on 2-16 then down turn hit and been adjusting ever since, out today for a very small profit. Was under water from get go and today got me even.
#Fuzzy – Closing down my Fuzzy while the gettin’s good, BTC XBI May11’18 90 calls and STC XBI Jun’18 88/88/86 fuzzy, all said and done I made 1.30 per contract on the trade. That’s the good news, the bad news is that all of my other short calls have been runned the hell over this week, got some rolling to do when the boss ain’t lookin.
2 of 5? It’s looking like we’ll get 2 of 5 consecutive bars hit a 1-SD up move. I’m jumping the gun a tad and putting on a “melt up” #Fuzzy. I’m going out a little longer on this since it could still fail.
QQQ June 167/167/164 @ 2.82 debit. Prices on fuzzies have come in a lot today. No hedge, for max delta, right now. This is already up 15% since I placed it about an hour ago.
sue
STO EWW May11’18 50 calls for 0.25
STO JPM May11’18 110 calls for 0.39
STO SLB May11’18 70 calls for 0.37
STO MU May11’18 50 calls for 0.27
STO XBI May11’18 90 calls for 0.45. My XBI Fuzzy is based in June so it’s pretty long in the tooth, hoping I get to close with a profit next week. Everyone cross your fingers please!
#Fuzzy – BTC XBI May04’18 90 calls for 0.04, sold for 0.62. I haven’t had time to sell any calls for next week due to work/life, and since the market may be making a short term bottom I’m gonna wait til tomorrow. Please tell me we get a bounce.
#Fuzzy I am in a few, but as with most strategies, results are mixed. Have a hard time to decide when is the right time to close once you are not profitable. I am clear about the combined risk between premium paid and the spread, so I do know what max exposure is. This is mainly such a long term strategy which makes it so difficult, for example I started with MU on 4/12 with 50/52.5/52.5 exp Jan18’19, paid 7.51. Shortly after MU started to tank, but I have been able to clear already a premium of 1.95 after fees by selling the calls, Delta is still almost 50. I am still considerably down at this time and am certainly not interested to give it all away. So, where would you stop and why?
#Fuzzy – BTC MU May04’18 51 calls for 0.05, sold for 0.51. Waiting to sell calls for next week. Sure could use a market bounce.
Sometimes it takes blowing out an account (or 2 on SVXY) to really make you focus. I have always learned more with a 2 x 4 to the back of the head than with a gentle nudge. So I went back to the drawing board, looked at all my trades that worked, what didn’t, and some alternative ways to trade and it has allowed me to concentrate on what works since Feb. 6, 2018. You would have thought I would have kept something in my head from Aug. 24, 2015 but apparently not.
So here is what I have going forward in order of how I am trading in the future.
#pietrades. This is my bread and butter, pays the bills, making some of the losses back, easy to roll and adjust and works week in and week out no matter what the market does. Occasionally get stuck with one for a while, currently GM but can usually roll them to even.
#supercharger. Works better than credit spreads for really small accounts. I have learned how to adjust from @jeffcp66 and from the options for edge book, but because of my schedule I can’t always make the adjustment in time before they go ITM or breach the short strike. By then you are already controlling losses not making money. They expire for full profit most of the time because you set then up deep ITM, if assigned on the short strike easy to exercise your long, and very easy to convert to a #fuzzy or calendar leap if they explode. Then fairly easy to work back to even or profit.
#spycraft will be rolling some of these out on the mid size accounts again but found that the ones that were farther out in time were easier to manage. So these will be 21-45 DTE in the future, mostly using spy but some qqq, iwm and maybe even dia. 3-5 points between strikes so I can manage by buying in between the strikes when needed and will not let them go to expiration, will close at 50% profit or any profit that is decent.
CC straddles or strangles if have just taken assignment on a short put and at a support area.
CC return more on a cash basis than puts so with my #pietrades will be selling puts a lot closer to the money with the hopes of getting assigned so I can immediately flip to CC.
#fuzzies are a great way to convert losing trades into break even or winners.
The higher the premiums the easier it is to roll. So I am looking at the history of how often the move is exceeding the expected move. GM is a good example, expected move exceeded almost weekly but the premiums were crap so I have been rolling it for 15 weeks now. The higher premium names even when exceeded were usually back to break even in 2 weeks. Less work + more money = more free and fun time!
Never being short unhedged volatility again!!!
Sticking with those tactics and keeping it simple and profitable until the market changes and these no longer work and have to adjust again, but I think these are tactics that can work in any market condition.
With that said, bunch of rolls today and was assigned early on a few.
ERX #supercharger 20/25 assigned for full profit. Put on 21 days ago for 4.55 debit closed at 5 credit
EXPE 104 put expiring worthless :). That account will open #spycraft on Monday.
Smallest account AAPL 145/150 ITM call debit spread. 3 contracts max gain $207 for $1293 at risk. That is a 16% ROI if AAPL anywhere above 150 or 206% annualized. I will be doing a A LOT more of these going forward on the smaller accounts now that I have seen how they work for 8 weeks and even adjusted 2 to #fuzzies.
FAS 65 CC in 3 different accounts. Rolled for 1.14, 1.1, 1.15 credits and cost basis now 57.92, 55.74, 61.33 with FAS at 64.03.
Hope everyone has a good expiration and great weekend!
#shortputs #postearnings #fallingknife T
Sold July 20, 33 put for 1.20, stock is at 33.39, down about 5% after earnings
QQQ #Fuzzy (I think this is one. Correct me if I’m wromg.) Sold April 27th 161 call @ .60 against my 2020 long leap 161 call with QQQ at 158.96
#Fuzzy – BTC XBI Apr27’18 92 calls for 0.06, sold for 0.47. STO XBI May04’18 90 calls for 0.62.
#Fuzzy – BTC MU Apr27’18 54 calls for 0.03, sold for 0.43. STO MU May04’18 51 calls for 0.51.
MU close #Fuzzy after a few diff moves finally exited with 148.75 profit
Closed #Fuzzy as hedge took me out, small profit.
#LongLEAPs Bought to Open $TQQQ Jan 2020 150 call for 41.00. To break even, underlying only has to reach its all-time high from last month, and I got 21 months to do it. Meanwhile, I’ll be selling calls against it.
#Fuzzy – STO MU Apr27’18 54 calls for 0.44
#Fuzzy – BTC XBI Apr20’18 92 calls for 0.03, sold for 0.38. STO XBI Apr27’18 92 calls for 0.47.
Did not have time to post yesterday (it was windy and warm and I had the day off so kiteboard season officially started Thurs).
XBI BTC 81 puts for 0.3 sold for 1.02 last week.
UTX BTc the 21 DTE 122/131 strangle for 2.49. Sold for many rolls for 2.5 so basically a scratch, wanted to free up the capital to use somewhere else. This was just wasting time and had already rolled 3 times and earnings coming up so just wanted out.
NSC btc 14 DTE 127/141 strangle for 2.8. Sold for 3.63 so same situation as UTX, just wanted the money to use somewhere else.
ERX #fuzzy ran away to the upside so closed for a slight profit. I lost track of the math since I had rolled it but bottom line is I gained back a little more than I put in. Closed for 6.6 and I think I had 6.22 in the trade.
FAS this week 64 cc rolled to next week for 1.25 cb 60.63
FAS this week 65 cc rolled next week for 1.2 credit. cb 58.17
FAS this week 67 cc rolled to next week 65 cc for 1.02 cb 64.11
LNG cc assigned at 54 cost basis 53.27.
Opened TNA ATM cc for next week at 69 for 67.55.
A few observations with all the whipsawing in the market. The leveraged products are easier to roll because of the higher premiums. Even though most of the FAS trades were underwater in 2 weeks that are all back to break even or profitable.
The deep ITM vertical debit spreads #supercharger work very well and easy to convert to #fuzzy if they need adjusting.
#pietrades are still my bread and butter but as @fuzzballl pointed out below, I am also moving towards more ETFs than single names. But they have to be on higher volatility names or the premiums are not there. XBI, FAS, ERX, TNA, TQQQ, UPRO, SMH, UDOW, QQQ, SPY, DIA are all trading well at the moment and I will be focusing on the names that work more consistently and actually require less work. My GM trade has taken 8-9 weeks to break even. ERX was down way more and only took 2 weeks of rolls to break even.
Going with the KISS principle going forward. Finally made back 6k of the SVXY losses in those accounts but still a long long way to go 😦
Spring here as well, 60 mile bike with friends this morning now going out to mow the lawn. Hope everyone gets to enjoy the weekend. Have a few trades lined up for Monday but depends on how we ope with Syria news.
#Fuzzy Land–Alligators and Atomics 🙂 (and Atomic Alligators)
Hi Everyone! Pretty soon this craziness will begin feeling like normal. I’ve got a nice mix of #Alligator traps and Alligator snaps and Atomics that are keeping my account balance relatively stable. After the conversation w/ @fuzzballl on my last post about Alligator Fuzzies, I put the suggestions side and by side and landed back on my original configuration for them. They work really well for long side and short side configs. My SPY beta-weighted deltas are 700, that’s pretty low for me, but it’s giving me stability.
GLD–I’ve got a long #Atomic Fuzzy on this, so no short term hedges. June 128c/128p/125p x 10, 130/134 call credit spread x 14.
FB–I’ve got an Atomic Alligator on this one, a combo. It’s kind of a franken trade w/ mixed expirations, but it’s a short trade around a May 25 165/165/167.5 Fuzzy bear.
IWM–Lots of Alligator traps (bullish) on this, May 153c/153p/150p/ 156c/159c / 156c.
JPM–Today on the dip I put on an Atomic Alligator: May 110/110/105 x 5 @2.08, 115/120 call credit spread @ .99 x 10 (this gives a core trade debit of .10), Apr 20 113 call @ .61 cr x 5.
Q’s and SPY: This is where I have layered in a lot of mixed Alligator traps (bullish) and Alligator Snaps (bearish). It’s a lot to keep an eye on, but having both sure helps with stability on account balances.
SPX: I’ve got a 1-lot Alligator Snap (bearish) on this: May 2665c/2665p/2670c/ 2615p/2595p 2615p
I can imagine someone new reading this post will be scratching their head. I think you can pull the #AlligatorFuzzy for an explanation of the Alligator setup. It’s a mix of a regular fuzzy and Atomic fuzzy. But hit me up if you have any questions.
Have a nice weekend everyone!
Sue
#Fuzzy – STO XBI Apr20’18 92 calls for 0.38, selling against my XBI Jun’18 88/88/86 fuzzy that has been unhedged during the recent market gyrations.
#LongCalls #LEAPS #BullCallSpreads – Thanks @jsd501 for the nice reminder on this ticker. Great premium for setting up a longer term position. As an experiment, I’m buying the Jan 2020 call spreads 100 points wide. TOS is showing an expected move of +/- of 100 points out to 2020. This reduced my entry cost (but caps long term profits).
Bought to Open TQQQ JAN 17 2020 150.0/250.0 Bull Call Spreads @ 28.30
92 weeks for the trade to run so only need 31 cents per week to cover the cost. Goal is to get it covered much sooner and keep selling against the position.
So:
Sold TQQQ APR 20 2018 155.0 Calls @ 3.30
BTO May 18 50/50/48 Bull #Fuzzy 2.77
STO Apr 20 54 Call .46
#pietrades and #supercharger trades
Finally 2 positive weeks in a row despite being assigned on final SVXY 50 puts.
TNA #supercharger 5/18 55/60 for 4.37 debit
ERX #supercharger 4/27 20/25 for 4.55 debit
ERX #fuzzy rolled 8 DTE out to 22 DTE 25.5 for 0.4 credit. Cost basis now 7.82
FAS CC rolled 67 CC expires tomorrow for 8 DTE for 1.12 credit. CB now 65.13
Assigned SVXY 50 put for 48.75, sold for 11.53 ouch but don’t see SVXY moving for a while so unloaded and used what little cash was left in this account for the ERX trade above. Left just enough to convert to a #fuzzy if needed.
#pietrades bunch of FAS, ERX, CC expiring tomorrow. Should all go out at full profit unless there is another stupid tweet.
Also some expiring next week. Will reload the ladders as they expire on Monday.
Hope everyone has a good expiration and is enjoying Mr. Whippy’s the market, not the ice cream shop although it is delicious!
#Fuzzy – BTO MU Jul20’18 52.5/52.5/50 Fuzzy for 3.80. Seems like the market is BTFD, possibly gonna cheer up soon? This synthetic position is unhedged at the moment. Dan Fitzpatrick featured this one in his free chart last night and brought it to my attention, so I will have to give him credit for the ticker.
#AlligatorFuzzy
Ok, here’s the latest entry into the #Fuzzy family.
Backing up a bit, there’s something every #Fuzzy has in common: A combo trade of a 2-part synthetic (long or short) coupled with protection for full risk definition. 3 legs, all the same expiration.
A Regular Fuzzy (the original one named after @fuzzballl) then uses short dated short hedges for trade debit recovery and weekly income.
An Atomic Fuzzy eschewed the short dated short hedges for a double size hedge using the same expiration as the core fuzzy–solving the problem of runover hedges.
Regular Fuzzy Pros: Efficient use of capital, risk defined, weekly income
Regular Fuzzy Cons: Protection very expensive in high vol, hedges frequently get runover
Atomic Fuzzy Pros: Efficient use of capital, risk defined, partial-to-full financing of protection (particularly useful in high vol)
Atomic Fuzzy Cons: No weekly income, which increases directional risk
Combining these two trades into a new trade solves the cons on both trades–it is essentially a Fuzzy Diagonal. There are two versions, an #AlligatorTrap is bullish, an #AlligatorSnap is bearish.
This trade uses both a long dated hedge (matching the core expiration and quantity) and short dated weekly hedges. The trade, in essence, has a triple hedge! Hedge #1: Core protection, Hedge #2: A credit spread using the core expiration, Hedge #3 A short dated short hedge. Believe it or not…perfectly legal in a 401K. I will be attaching a slide showing risk graph setups, a proper diagonal setup on the risk graph should significantly reduce the hedge runovers.
Here is the exact trade setup that I did last week for a long on SPY (captured on the attached slide)
SPY May monthly: +263c/-263p/+259p (this is the core fuzzy) @5.62 debit, then add a CCS 269/273, same qty, @1.55 cr. Then enter the weekly income hedge: Apr 6 270c @.63.
Particular setup rules: 1. The 3-leg core debit = “X” 2. Use ATM + X for the anchor short leg of the CCS. Those 5 legs should give you a “ledge” type risk graph where the ledge is solidly above 0. Finally add in the short dated short hedge–the best graphs work up with the calls at the same strike as the CCS anchor on the long dated core, or higher.
Everything can be reversed for a bear trade. Here’s an Alligator Snap (bear)trade I did on QQQ this morning:
Jun -157c/+157p/+160c @ 5.09, 152/147 PCS @ 1.34 cr ($157-$5=$152 for anchor). Then an Apr 6 152 short put @ .77. This puts the starting trade debit at $2.98. Accrued credits on rolling the short dated hedge will attack that trade debit. The bear side of this trade, due to put skew, will allow for more lucrative put rolls in an uptrending market.
So, in conclusion, this trade brings the best parts of the regular fuzzy (weekly income) and atomic fuzzy (protection financing) together. Check out the attached slide for risk graph setups, let me know your questions. I have about 8 of these trades on right now, 6 traps and 2 snaps. I’ve already rolled short hedges from last week.
Thanks to @MamaCash for the creative name…I was just going to call it a Fuzzy Diagonal….but Alligators are way more fun 🙂
Y’all know I’m keenly watching for 1-standard deviation up moves in SPX. We need 3 1SD up moves in a 5-bar window (for historical rally confirmations). We got one on Thursday. Today’s slipped through the fingers, darnit. We got a .933–the rule is it must cross 1.0. Wed and Thur still fall into the 5-bar window.
#AlligatorFuzzy anyone? I have a new #Fuzzy! I believe this is the best one yet. The love-child of regular fuzzy and atomic fuzzy. I will do a full write up on it maybe later tonight. I really think you will find it very compelling.
Sue
#Fuzzy – BTC XBI Apr06’18 91 calls for 0.04, sold for 0.46. Leaving my synthetic position unhedged for now (although waiting has not worked well lately!)
#supercharger this is the ITM vertical debit spreads.
The adjustment to ERX yesterday is already paying off. With only a 0.24 increase in ERX, the long has gained and the short has decreased in time value so overall profit $750 on 10 contracts. Technically it is now a #fuzzy and that appears to be the way to adjust one that goes against you quickly and easily. Of course it has already moved through my short strike but will be easy to roll next week and have 41 weeks left of selling now to reduce cost basis. In 8 weeks should be a risk free trade.
Of all my positions yesterday, this one was the least underwater even though it was the biggest down percentage wise.
I will keep experimenting with these through all market conditions and see what is the best way to adjust them, what is the ideal time to put them on, and which conditions are ideal for them.
Will keep you posted as to how they work out longer term but think this may be a very viable trading idea. I may even buy the course, only $39 to see what the official recommendations are but with the trading brain power we have here I think we can figure it out! I also don’t think the course goes into adjusting, I think they just take them off at a set loss point.
#pietrades and rolling with some good premiums.
ANDV rolled 11 DTE 95 put to 25 DTE 93 put for 0.25 credit. Cost basis 90.78 if assigned.
NSC rolled 11 DTE 131 put to 25 DTE 128 put for 0.32 credit. CB 126.63 if assigned.
I will probably #jadelizard these if we get a bounce in next few days and also UTX but want better prices on a rebound.
ERX 21/26 4 DTE under water. Still some time value in the short option so will wait and roll later in the week. I will likely #fuzzy it to the Jan 19 call 20 strike, then just sell weekly options against it. With 41.5 weeks left would only need 0.19 per week to scratch the trade to zero so will probably sell OTM to give it a little room. I can roll the long option out and down for 4.15 right now and gain 41 weeks. 2-3 strikes oTM usually brings in 0.6-1 each week so this could be a good longer term trade.
Actually as I am typing this ERX going to parity, will roll it now.
New trade is a #fuzzy Jan 19 call 20 strike, rolled for 4.25 debit and the short 26 call rolled to next week 25.5 for 0.45. Total CB now 8.22 for 10 contracts. Work it down each week from here.
Trade wars should spike the price of commodities including oil so this should rebound.
Taking the ITM vertical debt spread idea a little farther, here is an example. Best returns appear to be on the leveraged products but higher risk, obvious with the higher premiums. Here is a TQQQ example. 10 point spread, 20 DTE, 10 lot $1350 profit, max loss 8650 if you don’t manage it, and it is 33 points ITM now. Could it hit the short strike, possibly but would require more than a Feb 6 event to get there.
The more I look at these, the more I like. Easy to roll to #fuzzy if needed. Set up a ladder and would be a good income stream. Thoughts, other comments, see anything I am missing? I have an ERX one on now, it was challenged last week but never hit the break even point. I will likely roll it 3 weeks out this Thurs. or Fri. to avoid the assignment fees as long as it will close at or a few pennies shy of 5. If not will let it expire.
If it works I think we should call it a #supercharger
Wife is already asleep, daughter has a friend over so looking at some possible trade ideas. Taking the ITM debit spread a step further here are some numbers to consider. Based on closing prices all 22 DTE so we are comparing apples to apples. TNA as example, this is leveraged but with excellent weekly premiums. 10 contracts on all to keep the numbers consistent. These are all about 6 points ITM on the call side or 6 points OTM for the puts.
50/60 vertical debit spread cost 8.95 for a 10 point spread at expiration. Max profit $1050. Max loss $8950 but this can be converted. 11.7% ROC for a 140.4% annualized return.
60 strike CC 58.22. Max profit $1780. Max loss 58,220 for 3% ROC or 36% annualized.
60 put requires full cash secured because leveraged. 54,471 at risk for $1020 max profit, 1.87% return or 22% annualized.
All could be rolled or hedged if needed.
I am going to experiment more with these, like the idea, the returns, limited risk and can be done in a smaller account. Also could set up a ladder for an income stream. Right now have ERX going, may add FAS and TNA in small contract size in a few weeks.
#Fuzzy – STO XBI Apr06’18 91 calls for 0.47.
Have a nice holiday everyone!
#pietrades A bunch today since this is effectively expiration day. But it is nice out, first day can wear shorts here so going outside as soon as all the trades execute, still working 1 order.
GM Rolled 38.5 CC 22 DTE to 29 DTE for 0.17 credit. CB now 38.33. Taking forever to work this one back, will just be happy to scratch it so I can use the money somewhere else. For those following, I am taking this off the #pietrade list for a while, weekly premiums are not good enough for as much as it is moving around and to prone to steel tariff tweets.
FAS today 65 CC to next week 64 CC for 1.58 credit. CB 62.07
FAS today 64 CC to next week for 1.59 credit. CB 61.11
LNG Apr. 6 to Apr. 13 55 CC down to 54 CC for 0.52 credit. CB 53.27
ANDV 95/108 15 DTE strangle looking good, probably roll Monday to new week but #jadelizard the call side.
ERX 21/26 long debit 8 DTE should expire for full profit next week. If for some reason stays below 26 will convert to #fuzzy. I can add another 9 months to the long call for $3 and can sell $2 in premium each week, kind of a no brainer. However, this is also part of a deep ITM #syntheticcoveredcall experiment so my plan is to actually roll it next week and re-establish the position. On a percentage basis looks like a 13.7% return every month with moderate risk but very little work. Potentially a 160% annualized return so this is worth trying. I think this is what Chuck Hughes does to get some of his high returns. Buy deep ITM call with almost no time value, then sell ITM call that has a decent amount of time value left. Gives 10-20% downside protection and can still make max profit. I will keep one of these running for a while and report the results as it unfolds. Cheaper way to play a CC or #fuzzy maybe.
NSC 131/143 strangle 15 DTE. It moved around so much still at break even. Hope some theta decay will make some profits this weekend. Earnings late April so will only roll the put side.
UTX 122/132 strangle 36 DTE. Had to adjust. Same problem as NSC. Will let some of the premium suck out of it then only roll the put side. Earnings late April or I may #jadelizard both so there is no risk to the upside.
Hoppy Easter as the kids say! Hope everyone has a good long weekend.
I am still showing paper losses from the SVXY implosion. My net liq. keeps going down because of all the adjusting, only 1 positive week since Feb 6 but it was a good one. However, once these all close will have a nice bump finally and the theta decay is huge now, close to 800 per day, just need a few days of not whipsawing so it makes a difference. Once everything closes in 1-3 weeks will at least be positive for March.
Cheers, Chris
Rolled Mar 29 76/74 BuPS to May 4 76/73 .30 Db need to add call to try to come back with this one. #Fuzzy did not work so far
BTO May 4 76 1.08
#Fuzzy – Right before close BTO XBI Jun’18 88/88/86 synthetic stock position for 3.70. Unhedged for now. XBI printed a dragonfly doji today and Tech is due a bounce, right? Crossing fingers and toes.
Not done with the Mark Sebastain book but a few things about adjustments, may need them. Unfortunately I have a few trades that will take me a while to unwind so won’t be able to do these for a while.
Butterflies, adjust once you are at the long strike. Basically buy some more and the ratio will boost returns.
Credit spreads, leave enough space between the strikes so you can buy in between. Usually a 3-4 contract buy on a 10 lot will flatten your deltas. If it then keeps moving you have a back ratio and any further movement will increase your profits. Other option is just back ratio the spread, say buy back 1 short for every 3-4 long contracts.
Naked options, the best way we have found is to turn them into a #fuzzy.
Full disclosure, I have not had time or the opportunity to do any of these real time, but they look like they will work in thinkback. Most of the time it flattens your loss but don’t expect a huge profit on an adjustment except in the case of a continued move if you ratio it.
Some people may get margin calls over the weekend, Sunday open could be interesting and I might take a directional trade then. Have to see.
Have a good weekend.
New trades
FAS 3/30 expiration 65 CC cost basis 63.65
FAS 3/30 exp. 64 CC cost basis 62.70
LNG 4/6 exp 55 CC cost basis 53.79
Existing position or adjusted
FAS tomorrow 68 CC cost basis 67.20 Will let expire then open ATM on Monday. Still has 1.05 time value in it so being a little greedy sine the market makers are being greedy on the spreads today. Work any orders you are trying to get through.
UTX 29 DTE 125 put cost basis 124.51, watching this one closely and may convert to a #fuzzybear if it keeps going.
ANDV 22 DTE 95 put cost basis of 94.69
ERX 15 DTE 21/26 vertical debit at 25.41. If we drop below 26 will convert to #fuzzy
GM 15 DTE 39 CC cost basis 38.75. Problem child I will be rolling for weeks. Goal is to keep selling right at dropping cost basis just to let it clear out then moving on to another name. This one no longer trading well for #pietrades
NSC 22 DTE 131 put cost basis 129.95. This one will probably replace GM in the rotation.
I am starting to notice something with triple ETFs, they are easier to roll and manage than some individual names because the premiums are so high, especially on the call side. FAS can get about 3 ATM and because of the call skew selling ITM CC gives some downside protection. Don’t load the boat with them but getting 100% annualized returns just by selling weekly ITM CC #pietrade syle.
Hope everyone has a good week. My work has been so busy may only get to trade Thursdays for a while.
Rolled Mar 23 29 Call to mar 29 31 .35 debit part of Hedge on 28/28/26 Apr #Fuzzy
IP Assigned 62.5 put, have a 60 for protection am putting it to them also. -250.00 part of a #Fuzzy that didn’t do well but had a few weeks to go. Part of the game.
Might be on to something here. I have an experiment running on ERX. 22 DTE 21/26 call spread. I don’t know what the news is, but all the oil service sector names just tanked and are now bouncing. Anyway, I was looking at how hard it would be to roll and it is really easy and often done for a credit.
Adjustment #1 is roll the long out or to a leap and make it a fuzzy. I could add another 9 months for 3.2 or 19 for 7.19. Then you have plenty of time to sell against it.
Adjustment #2 roll the entire spread out a month, could do that for 0.7 credit even going down a strike.
Adjustment #3 roll the short strike down same expiration for credit. At that point you lose some of the profit but still stays green.
I may experiment with some more of these going forward and will share results. Might be a better way to get higher returns with known/controlled risk. That is always a good thing 🙂
Also may be a way to ease into a #fuzzy at a lower cost and not having to initially set up as a long range trade.
STO the next week 8 DTE FAS 68 CC at 67.20 in IRA, only 300 shares.
Tomorrow have some expirations that look safe for now.
WDC 87 CC will let call out
FAS 67 CC will let assign
That’s all for this week. Mostly need to sit on my hands and let theta do its magic.
I need to place some #fuzzy trades and #spycraft trades to improve ROI but to be honest, my trading confidence is still low after the SVXY debacle. To have an entire year’s worth of trading profits wiped out by one trade has been a major gut punch. Luckily I learned to segregate accounts after 8/24/2015 and only affected 2 out of 7 accounts. I know how to trade, fairly good at it, the SVXY was an isolated event, but still sits in the back of your head and prevents you from hitting the send button on some trades I know are good.
After I successfully manage what I currently have on and have a few cycles of profitable trades it should get some mojo back.
As I am reading “Trading options for edge” realize I probably need to manage the positions and portfolio by the Greeks more, especially delta and gamma. Learning some new hedging techniques that should be very beneficial and will post them as I use them and learn them.
#coveredcalls #fallingknife SIG
Tradewise new “covered call advisory” is buying 100 shares of SIG, 39.35 now and selling the April 35 call for about .50. SIG is down 17%, over $8 so far today after earnings. It was up around 76 before the previous big earnings drop. I don’t understand this one.
BTO BBBY May 18 22.5/22.5/20 .98 2x #Fuzzy No Hedge at this time
March 12 #Fuzzy Land
Very excellent day here. All of the unhedged #Fuzzy that I opened on Friday were closed today for over 50% profit–and I pretty much had a lot of them. Q’s were reset and again closed for a lot of profit. Closed Fuzzies for the quarter now have a 47 handle! I’m still shooting to regain that 50 that I had in January.
Opened some new unhedged Fuzzies today in SPY, but when I saw resistance and rising VIX I atomicized them. Here is an example:
SPY #AtomicFuzzy April Expiration: 280c/-280p/277p @ 2.93 x 21 contracts, 284/288 Call credit spread @ .92 x 36 contracts.
I’m flat on Q’s right now, they are showing signs of trend exhaustion right now, so I’ll be patient for the right entry.
#fuzzy MSFT
Sold a March 16, 98 call for .32, stock is at 96.81
#fuzzy UNP
January 26, followed some others into a 135/135?130 March 16 fuzzy. I sold a Feb. 2, 135 call, rolled to Feb. 16, 136 call, after it expired sold a Feb. 23, 136 call and let it expire. UNP has swung about 15 points in the last month along with the market, making it a rough fuzzy. I closed it today making 231. In this case,the hedges provided 181 of the 231. I consider myself fortunate to be out with a gain.
Mini experiment, if it works will call it #syntheticcoveredcall although that hashtag already exists I think it is appropriate. @jeffcp66 if you want to change the name let me know.
Ok, here is the set up. You have to have a slight directional bias or at least think it is going to be flat or only down/up a little. But you can get about 10% protection.
Buy a deep ITM call or put and sell a slightly ITM call or put as a vertical. I used to do these and they generally worked, but had one go out worthless once and just stopped doing them. Now that I know how to roll options much better this may work out better than CC. Also I think bigtrends and hughes used to do a lot of these.
So I was just filled on 25 DTE ERX 21/26 call spread for 4.42. It went through quickly, could probably get a better price. 10 contracts max risk 4450 or so and max profit 580. 13% return in 25 days compared to the CC which would only be 3.5% and much less out of pocket expense.
What could go wrong, deep correction. Break even at 25.54. If we start dropping below that I can either buy some puts or roll the entire spread down, probably at even or slight debit.
Either way, only one way to find out for real, so will update as it moves around.
closed #Fuzzy small profit Bought 2-16 3.25 closed for 33.25 profit
Options Bistro 