#bups
$AAPL STO 10/18 210/215 BUPS at 1.40
$MSFT STO 10/18 130/135 BUPS at 1.40
#shortputs
$STNE STO 10/18 36 put at 1.75. Replaces 9/20 30 put I closed for 95% profit yesterday. Thank you @jsd501
Daily Archives: Tuesday, September 17, 2019
NFLX put spread
$NFLX A bit on the aggressive side but I like what the stock has been doing to get off the mat the last few days. Sold 10/11 285/275 bull put spread @ 1.98. Short strike 27 delta. Expiration is the 10/11 weekly not the 10/18 monthly (avoiding earnings which are on 10/16.
#earnings ADBE #closing SHOP #tastytradefollow…
#earnings ADBE #closing up SHOP
#tastytradefollow sold Oct. 18, 254/260/300/315 #ironcondor for 4.38
Thanks for the data Jeff
SHOP bought #ironcondor for 5.00 sold for 5.60 on Sept. 11.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 2925/2945-3040/3060 condors for .85, IV 13.71%, SPX 2998. IV is up from recent series due to Fed announcement. Deltas are .06 and .05
STNE
STO October 18, 36 puts @ 1.85
ADBE trade
#Earnings. Bought to Open $ADBE Sept20/Sept27 282.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.83. Filled on TOS, I am having to bid higher on IB.
ADBE earnings
$ADBE Borrowing an earnings trade idea from TastyTrade. 9/20 (this Friday) 292.50/295/300 broken wing call butterfly @ .30 credit. No downside risk. Profitable below 297.80. Stock at 282.58. Earnings after the bell today.
EDIT: Corrected. Originally posted “no upside risk” but the trade is a call butterfly for a credit–there is no downside risk. Apologies.
CMG adjustment
$CMG With the stock making a move up, my iron condor was starting to get too much short delta so I rolled the 10/18 725/705 bull put spread up to 780/760 for 2.18 credit. Still paired with the 850/870 call spread, with the stock around 825. Total premium taken in now 6.33 against 20 point wide wings.
FDX earnings analysis
#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 25, 2019 AC +2.52%
March 19, 2019 AC -3.49%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC +2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +6.89% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.92%
Bias -0.80%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 173.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 163.29 to 182.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 166.21 to 179.79
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.2%): 151.96 to 194.04
Based on UP max only (+6.9%): 184.92
Open to requests for other symbols.
ADBE earnings analysis
#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 18, 2019 AC +5.21%
March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC +3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +7.11% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.72%
Bias 0.49%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 282.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 268.04 to 296.96
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 272.00 to 293.00
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 261.93 to 303.07
Based on UP max only (+7.1%): 302.59
Open to requests for other symbols.
Anyone trading ADBE, FDX,GIS, DRI
Anyone trading ADBE, FDX,GIS, DRI
#earnings FDX #tastytradefollow Sold Oct….
#earnings FDX
#tastytradefollow Sold Oct. 18, 150/190 strangle for 2.10
OSTK Who took the shock…
OSTK Who took the shock paddles to this stock. Wow!!
TRADES:
:
GOOS STO 9/20/19 43.5 ITM PUTS @1.41 Want to buy the stock cheaper, or get the nice premium.
STNE STO 9/20/19 36.0 ITM PUTS @.80 SEE ABOVE ;>)
TRADES:
STNE BTO STOCK @34.87
STNE STO 9/20/19 35.0 CALLS @.45
OSTK STO 9/20/19 21.0 CALLS @.65
GOOS STC STOCK a mistake, up .40 now. ;>(
SPX 1-dte
sold 18 SEP 2019 SPX BrCS, 3040/2345 for 0.25
ULTA
#CoveredCalls – Been double and triple selling these but going back to just one until this bounce plays out. Leaving next week’s 242.50 but taking small loss on the following week.
Bought to Close ULTA OCT 4 2019 240.0 Call @ 2.55 (sold for 2.00)
Options Bistro 