#coveredcalls
$NUGT BTC 10/18 36 call and STO 10/25 38 call for .30 debit
$HIIQ BTC 10/18 25 call and STO 11/15 28 call for .40 credit
Daily Archives: Monday, September 23, 2019
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 25th 2980/2955 put spreads for 3.00.
Expiring today:
Sept 23rd 2930/2940-3035/3045, sold Friday for .50
Sept 23rd 2915/2940-3050/3075, sold Wednesday for 2.65
#earnings #rolling FDX Rolled Oct….
KMX earnings analysis and trade
#Earnings $KMX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 21, 2019 BO +3.18%
March 29, 2019 BO +9.61%
Dec. 21, 2018 BO +3.94%
Sept. 26, 2018 BO -1.60%
June 22, 2018 BO +12.86%
April 4, 2018 BO +4.61%
Dec. 21, 2017 BO -3.60%
Sept. 22, 2017 BO +7.77%
June 21, 2017 BO +0.80%
April 6, 2017 BO +2.36%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +6.09%
Sept. 21, 2016 BO -2.04%
Avg (+ or -) 4.87%
Bias 3.67%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
NOTE: The 5-day results are still bullish, but less so, as extreme one-day up moves tended to fade over the following days.
With stock at 86.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 79.60 to 92.40
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 81.81 to 90.19
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 74.94 to 97.06
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 82.90
Open to requests for other symbols.
AZO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 21, 2019 BO +5.56%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
Avg (+ or -) 4.88%
Bias -1.84%, negative bias on earnings.
NOTE: The 5-day results are more bullish, as extreme one-day down moves tended to fade over the following days.
5-day bias is +0.80%
With stock at 1152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1081.01 to 1223.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1096.22 to 1208.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 1016.04 to 1288.96
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 1230.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
UUP closed
#LongCalls On July 29th I bought $UUP Sept 20th 26 calls for .72. UUP price was 26.58 on that day. I forgot to close Friday so I was assigned, and I just sold the stock for 26.88.
So I had the direction right, but this thing only moves a few pennies in weeks, so profit of .16 on the trade.
NUGT WORK STZ
Rolled $NUGT 9/27 30 Puts // 10/4 30.5 puts @.50 Credit against existing 10/18 20 puts
Rolled down 10/18 $WORK 10/18/2019 40 Calls // 10/18/2019 28 Calls @.57. #CoveredCalls.
STO $STZ 180/190/220/230 10/18/2019 #IC @2.25. Earnings 10/3. Short options at ~20 delta.
Options Bistro 