#SPX1dte Taking exception to my normal rules and selling Monday’s 1-dte in the morning…. I don’t expect much movement today, and using the morning volatility and additional theta value to get good premium and a wide condor for Monday, which could see a strong move with news from China talks.
Sold $SPX July 1st 2825/2845-3000/3025 condors for 1.35, IV 16.2%, SPX 2934.
#SPX1dte Sold Thursday: $SPX Jun 28th 2870/2890-2955/2975 condors for 1.00. IV: 10.66%, SPX 2928
#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 4, 2019 BO +6.54%
Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -1.78%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75% Biggest UP
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%
Oct. 5, 2016 BO +0.07%
June 30, 2016 BO +6.37%
Avg (+ or -) 5.28%
Bias 2.88%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 185.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 174.86 too 195.14
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 175.24 to 194.76
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 162.04 to 207.96
Based on UP Max only (+9.8%): 203.04
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61%
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%
June 28, 2016 AC +3.84%
Avg (+ or -) 4.77%
Bias 0.96%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 83.40 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 79.27 to 87.53
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 79.42 to 87.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 74.13 to 92.67
Based on DOWN Max only (-7.1%): 77.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $WBA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 2, 2019 BO -12.80% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -5.02%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO -1.94%
June 28, 2018 BO -9.90%
March 28, 2018 BO +2.47%
Jan. 4, 2018 BO -5.17%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.07%
June 29, 2017 BO +1.66%
April 5, 2017 BO -1.61%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.06%
Oct. 20, 2016 BO +4.97% Biggest UP
July 6, 2016 BO -2.35%
Avg (+ or -) 4.25%
Bias -2.21%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 52.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 49.93 to 55.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.46 to 54.94
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.8%): 45.95 to 59.45
Based on UP Max only (+5.0%): 55.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 5th 2800/2825-3000/3025 condors for 3.90. IV: 16.22%, SPX 2923
#SPX1dte I closed my short June 26th 2875 puts for .05. When I woke up I was worried about the call side. Now I’m just being safe because I don’t trust this market to the downside.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jun 26th 2865/2875-2945/2955 condors for .55. Due to lower premium I am trying a different approach: wings that are only 10-wide and double the position size. Risk is theoretically the same… and it should be the same in practice too, as the spreads will be cheaper to exit when stops are hit since the closer-in long options will have more value.
IV: 10.79%, SPX 2916
#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC +7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC +12.68% Biggest UP
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%
June 30, 2016 AC -9.15% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 6.39%
Bias 0.79%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 33.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.71 to 36.29
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 31.36 to 36.54
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.7%): 29.25 to 37.75
Based on DOWN Max only (-9.2%): 30.43
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX June 26th 2900/2875 put spreads for .30. Condors sold Friday for 2.45; will let the 3000/3025 call side expire.
Also, expired yesterday: June 24th 2890/2910-2985/3000 condors, sold Friday for .65
#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 19, 2019 AC -3.49%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC +2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +6.89% Biggest UP
June 21, 2016 AC -4.53%
Avg (+ or -) 4.09%
Bias -1.39%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 158.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 148.85 to 167.15
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 151.54 to 164.46
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.2%): 138.79 to 177.21
Based on UP Max only (+6.9%): 168.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
#VIXIndicator It’s been awhile since we started this Warning, so I missed the fact that it was canceled on Thursday with the new SPX high. So now we set up for either a new Downside Warning or an Upside Warning. See the sidebar for those levels.
Higher strikes added.
#SPX1dte. Sold $SPX June 24th 2890/2910-2985/3000 condors for .65, IV 7.63%, SPX 2965. Another day of low premium as IV has plummeted.
Expiring, June 21st 2890/2910-2990/3010 condors, sold yesterday for .65
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 26th 2875/2900-3000/3025 condors for 2.45.
#Earnings. Sold to close $KMX Jun21/Jun28 83 #DoubleCalendar for 1.00. Bought yesterday for .43. Only got filled on 3, was going for 17. 😦
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 21st 2890/2910-2990/3010 condors for .65, IV 13%, SPX 2954.
SPX plunging, Gold rising, VIX spiking.
#Earnings #Takeover Bought $RHT June 21st 190 calls for .06, .09, .10.
I doubt this will go anywhere but it’s costing me almost nothing. Was filled for .09 on IB, then TOS would only allow .05 increments, so bought there for .10, then went back to IB, bidding .09 for more and was filled for .06. I was charged zero commission for the .09 bunch, but 1.44 per option on the .06 bunch.
Brokers can be nutty.
#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX Jun 26th 2960/2985 calls spreads for 5.60. Condors sold for 3.00 on Monday.
#Earnings Bought to Open $KMX Jun21/Jun28 83 #DoubleCalendar for .43. Filling slowly, 1 lot every minute or so.
#Earnings $KMX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 29, 2019 BO +9.61%
Dec. 21, 2018 BO +3.94%
Sept. 26, 2018 BO -1.60%
June 22, 2018 BO +12.86% Biggest UP
April 4, 2018 BO +4.61%
Dec. 21, 2017 BO -3.60%
Sept. 22, 2017 BO +7.77%
June 21, 2017 BO +0.80%
April 6, 2017 BO +2.36%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +6.09%
Sept. 21, 2016 BO -2.04%
June 21, 2016 BO -4.91% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.02%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 82.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.07 to 87.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 78.36 to 86.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 71.89 to 93.11
Based on UP Max only (-4.9%): 78.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $RHT reports tonight, but there is no volatility or premium in options expiring tomorrow. I don’t know what’s going on, because all sources say it reports tonight. Time to buy a buttload of long straddles? Anyone know what’s up?
Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 25, 2019 AC +0.29%
Dec. 17, 2018 AC 0.00%
Sept. 19, 2018 AC -6.53%
June 21, 2018 AC -14.23%
March 26, 2018 AC +0.86%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC -5.32%
Sept. 25, 2017 AC +4.07%
June 20, 2017 AC +9.58%
March 27, 2017 AC +5.20%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -13.88%
Sept. 21, 2016 AC +3.86%
June 22, 2016 AC -1.70%
Avg (+ or -) 5.46%
Bias -1.48%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 188.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 187.23 to 189.77 (???)
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 178.21 to 198.79
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.2%): 161.88 yo 215.32
Based on UP Max only (+9.6%): 206.56
Open to requests for other symbols.
#ContangoETFs Sold $NUGT Dec 35 calls for 2.85
Also followed @Ramie77, sold Sept 35 calls for 1.40
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX June 20th (monthlys) 2970/2990 call spreads for 1.75. Condors sold yesterday for 1.00. Cannot allow this to sit overnight as settlement on monthlys is Friday morning’s open. I’ll let the put side expire then.
All things hinge on the Fed… finally getting the VIX drop that just would not come.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 20th (monthly) 2845/2865-2970/2990 condors for 1.00, IV: 16.31%, SPX 2922.
#SPX1dte Closing call side on a couple condors before the FOMC report. I see the possibility of a strong rally if rates cut, but not a huge dive if they are not. Even so, I have a lot of room to downside in the put sides; call sides were tighter.
BTC $SPX june 19th 2965/2985 call spreads for .20. Condors sold yesterday for 1.00.
BTC June 20th (monthlys) 2960/2980 call spreads for 1.90. Condors sold for 2.50 on June 12th.
#Earnings $ORCL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 AC -0.20%
Dec. 17, 2018 AC +0.26%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -0.30%
June 19, 2018 AC -7.45%
March 19, 2018 AC -9.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 14, 2017 AC -3.76%
Sept. 14, 2017 AC -7.67%
June 21, 2017 AC +8.56% Biggest UP
March 15, 2017 AC +6.22%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -4.30%
Sept. 15, 2016 AC -4.74%
June 16, 2016 AC +2.69%
Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias -1.68%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 52.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 49.84 to 55.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.07 to 54.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 47.55 to 57.45
Based on UP Max only (+8.6%): 56.99
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 19th 2845/2865-2965/2985 condors for 1.00. IV: 15.24%, SPX 2920.
IV has spiked due to Fed announcement tomorrow. Manage risk and watch your positions for the 2pm ET release.
#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC +3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +7.11% Biggest UP
June 21, 2016 AC -5.72%
Avg (+ or -) 3.76%
Bias -0.42%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 278.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 266.34 to 290.66
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 268.03 to 288.97
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 258.23 to 298.77
Based on UP Max only (+7.1%): 298.30
Open to requests for other symbols.
2pm ET
#SPX1dte Happy Summer Solstice Week, everyone!
Building back some of the hits I took on the screaming run higher:
Sold $SPX June 26th 2770/2795-2960/2985 condors for 3.00.
Smaller account i sold the 5-wide with same shorts for .75
#Earnings #Rolling Sold $AVGO June 21st 267.5/262.5 put spreads for 2.40.
I have the 270/267.5 put spread expiring today, so at the moment it will be max loss of 2.50. So I rolled to next week, going down ne stark and also widening to 5.
But it is rallying now so loss may be less than 2.50. I wanted to sell the roll before its price dropped much more.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 17th 2830/2850-2915/2935 condors for .90. (IV 7.28%, SPX 2887)
Expiring today: June 14th 2825/2845-2915/2935 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=24&month=6&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 14th 2825/2845-2915/2935 condors for 1.00. (IV: 11.41%, SPX 2882)
#Earnings Sold $AVGO 267.5/270/290/292.5 #IronCondor for 1.35. Better than 1:1, with a bullish lean.
#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 AC +8.23% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC +8.49%
March 1, 2017 AC +0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC +4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%
June 2, 2016 AC +4.93%
Avg (+ or -) 4.09%
Bias 1.88%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 282.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 265.11 to 299.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 270.94 to 294.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 258.52 to 306.48
Based on DOWN Max only (-4.8%): 268.91
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX June 14th 2815/2790 put spreads for .25. Sold for 2.50 on Friday.
Expired: June 12th 2825/2845/2920/2940, sold yesterday for .95.
#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 28, 2019 AC -21.96%
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75% Biggest UP
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69% Biggest DOWN
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
June 8, 2016 AC -21.23%
Avg (+ or -) 18.96%
Bias 2.28%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 93.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 78.98 to 108.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 75.77 to 111.23
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 51.66 to 135.34
Based on DOWN Max only (-25.7%): 69.48
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO +4.90%
Avg (+ or -) 12.10%
Bias 4.21%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 171.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 154.13 to 187.87
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 150.32 to 191.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 130.93 to 211.07
Based on UP Max only (+16.3%): 198.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 12th 2825/2845-2920/2940 condors for .95. (IV 11.85%, SPX 2881)
#SPX1dte No trades today… but this expired:
$SPX June 10th 2805/2825-2920/2940 condors, sold Friday for 1.00.
#OptionsExpiration #Earnings #IronCondor
$FIVE 117/120-138/141 condors, sold Wednesday for 1.31
Have a good weekend all!
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX June 10th 2805/2825-2920/2940 condors for 1.00. IV: 10.4%, SPX 2875.
Last Friday I sold the 2820/2800… but they were the CALL side.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=10&month=6&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Market The Indices continuing a searingly bullish week, but the $VIX is spiking today as well.
I got filled on this trade as the market was going UP…
Sold $SPX June 14th 2815/2790 put spreads for 2.50. (SPX 2877)
#SPX1dte Closed the call spread I sold yesterday… bullish action not stopping. Still a couple points above the 13.67 VIX level that would cancel the Downside Warning. But given the action, I have to stop selling call spreads. Will look to try some put spreads on any minor pullback.
Stopped $SPX June 10th 2870/2895 call spreads for 5.25. Sold yesterday for 2.50.
Also watching June 14th 2890/2915 calls, which have a current stop point of 2867.
#Jobs — big drop from April’s blowout
+75,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 180K expected
Unemployment at 3.6%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.1%, down by 0.2
Wages up 0.2%, 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 62.8%, unchanged
April revised down from 263K to 224K
March revised down from 189K to 153K
#SPX1dte Tempting fate, I know. Sold $SPX June 10th (Monday) 2870/2895 call spreads for 2.50.
I’m working on a spreadsheet and I’d like to know the various commission structures that you all have (or have had in the past). Can everyone reading this give me a brief explanation in the comments? I will start with what I get from Interactive Brokers. If someone else has already commented with the same structure you have or have had, please don’t repeat it.
I am not looking for dollar amounts (although it is fine if you include them). I mainly need the structure; i.e., if there is a ticket charge, if per option price goes down with higher quantity, if there are set prices on all options or if index/ETF/ etc have different prices, etc.
Thanks!
#SPX1dte Too much bullish action not to sell something.
Sold $SPX June 14th 2890/2915 call spreads for 2.00, IV 14.39%, SPX 2826
#Earnings Selling this with a bullish lean based on its history… -3.2% on downside, +11.3% on upside
Sold $FIVE June 7th 117/120-138/141 #IronCondor for 1.31.
#Earnings #StrangleRoll #ThatDidntTakeLong
Sold this strangle Friday as a roll from losing #LongStraddle. Already breached, so rolling. Fortunately, the ATM options are not much more than the strangle sold for.
BTC $UBER June 14th 37/43 #ShortStrangle for 1.40. Sold for 1.00 on Friday.
STO $UBER June 21st 40/46 #ShortStrangle for 1.05
#Earnings $SFIX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 6 quarters, its entire history on the exchange.
March 11, 2019 AC +25.20%
Dec. 10, 2018 AC -20.90%
Oct. 1, 2018 AC -35.15% Biggest DOWN
June 7, 2018 AC +26.48% Biggest UP
March 12, 2018 AC -3.60%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC -9.77%
Avg (+ or -) 20.18%
Bias -2.96%, slightly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 23.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 19.80 to 27.20
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.76 to 28.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (35.2%): 15.24 to 31.76
Based on UP Max only (+26.5%): 29.72
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 27, 2019 AC +8.15%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
June 2, 2016 AC +2.07%
Avg (+ or -) 6.54%
Bias 5.25%, Strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 124.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 113.86 to 134.14
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 115.89 to 132.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 96.89 to 151.11
Based on DOWN Max only (-3.4%): 119.72
Open to requests for other symbols.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Both sets sold yesterday breached. Waiting before I roll.
BTC $TQQQ June 14th 52 calls for 1.90. Sold for 1.15 yesterday.
BTC $SQ June 14th 64 calls for 1.92. Sold for .97 yesterday.
#SPX1dte Euphoria has gripped the markets! Buy everything!
Took the morning pullback to close my 1-day trade and another one I should have closed yesterday.
BTC $SPX June 5th 2830 calls for 2.10. Will hold short 2840 long calls for more. Condors sold yesterday for .95.
BTC June 7th 2810/2835 call spreads for 11.40. Sold for 2.55 on Monday. Will take a few rolls to recoup this one.
Sold to Open $SPX June 5th 2730/2750-2830/2840 condors for .95, IV: 13.53%, SPX 2800.
What a face-ripping day for shorts.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Still holding long leaps, both underwater but cost basis now about zero after all these calls I have sold. I also ended up long some TQQQ stock at 58.00, which I will hold for the eventual recovery.
Sold $TQQQ June 14th 52 calls for 1.15.
Sold $SQ June 14th 64 calls for .97
#Earnings $AMBA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 5, 2019 AC +3.74%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +18.48% Biggest UP
Aug. 30, 2018 AC -3.62%
June 5, 2018 AC -12.93%
March 1, 2018 AC +13.46%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +14.29%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC -22.35% Biggest DOWN
June 6, 2017 AC -10.24%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -4.42%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -11.27%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -6.67%
June 2, 2016 AC +9.39%
Avg (+ or -) 10.91%
Bias -1.01%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 40.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 36.00 to 44.00
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.64 to 44.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.4%): 31.06 to 48.94
Based on UP Max only (+18.5%): 47.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1-dte Two extra roll spreads closed:
BTC $SPX June 5th 2700/2675 put spread for .25. Sold for 2.70 last Wednesday.
BTC $SPX June 7th 2675/2650 put spreads for .60. Sold yesterday for 3.10.
June 7th call spread at 2810 under pressure, but not too worries yet. This is a bear trend rally; at least until it isn’t.
#Earnings $CRM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN
May 18, 2016 AC +4.13%
Avg (+ or -) 2.91%
Bias 1.36%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 145.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.15 to 153.85
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 141.76 to 150.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 131.01 to 160.99
Based on DOWN Max only (-4.4%): 139.56
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX put spread sold to offset calls sold this morning.
Sold $SPX Jun 7th 2675/2650 put spreads for 3.10
#Earnings $TIF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 22, 2019 BO +3.14%
Nov. 28, 2018 BO -11.82% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 BO +0.99%
May 23, 2018 BO +23.28% Biggest UP
March 16, 2018 BO -5.06%
Nov. 29, 2017 BO -1.58%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO -1.31%
May 24, 2017 BO -8.70%
March 17, 2017 BO +2.71%
Nov. 29, 2016 BO +3.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +6.40%
May 25, 2016 BO +0.06%
Avg (+ or -) 5.68%
Bias 0.94%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 90.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.84 to 96.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 84.89 to 95.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.3%): 69.05 to 110.95
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.8%): 79.36
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Replacing the call spread that closed this morning:
Sold $SPX June 7th 2810/2835 call spreads for 2.55.
#SPX1dte Closed at the open: $SPX Jun 3rd 2690/2670 put spreads for .10. Condors sold for 1.35 on Friday. I’ll let the 2890 call side expire.
Closed in the pre-market on GTC order: June 5th 2845/2870 call spreads for .25. Sold for 2.80 on Thursday.
#Jobs report for May is Friday at 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=3&month=6&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#SPX1dte Sold to Open June 3rd $SPX 2670/2690-2800/2820 condors for 1.35. (IV 13.37%, SPX 2756)
#Earnings So much for my speculative play of a #LongStraddle. Seem like the stock really likes 40. Nonetheless it did bounce around today but was unable to sell at the best times because other commitments had me running around the house and town too much.
Sold $UBER 40 straddle for .45. Bought yesterday for 3.15
#Rolling: Sold $UBER Jun 14th 37/43 #ShortStrangle for 1.00. See if I can work that three times and get back the losses.
That loss erases my decent win on $ANF straddle, leaving me flat for the week.
Also, Sold to close $DG call calendar for .10. Bought #DoubleCalendar for .39 on Wednesday. Long 118 put as lottery ticket for next week.
#SPX1dte Somehow I plum forgot to put this on, so I did it after the bell.
Sold $SPX May 31st 2720/2740-2825/2845 condors for 1.10. (IV 14.3%, SPX 2788).
Options Bistro 