#Earnings This is speculative because $UBER has not previously posted earnings, but my guess is this stock will move more than $3.00 (7.5%) on earnings. $LYFT moved over 10% on its first report.
So I’m buying a #LongStraddle. I’m going to try to leg in, which is often a mistake for me, but trying any way.
Just now bought $UBER May 31st 40 call for 1.45.
Order in to buy 40 put for 1.50, banking that stock will rise a bit from here. If not, I’ll buy the 39.5 put instead.
SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 5th 2845/2870 call spreads for 2.80. Offsetting put spreads sold yesterday.
BTC May 31st 2725/2700 put spreads for .35. Sold for 2.10 on May 21.
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 AC +8.28%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.12% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC +7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13%
May 25, 2017 AC +3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC +4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -6.11%
May 26, 2016 AC +9.10% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.16%
Bias 0.37%, tiny positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 325.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 300.92 to 349.08
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 304.98 to 345.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 282.36 to 367.64
Based on UP Max only (+9.1%): 354.58
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC +3.40%
May 25, 2016 AC +3.57%
Avg (+ or -) 3.79%
Bias -0.52%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 232.65 to 252.35
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 233.31 to 251.69
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.6%): 221.69 to 263.31
Based on UP Max only (+5.1%): 254.82
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $UBER reports its first earnings tomorrow after the bell. Expected move +/- 2.82 by Friday.
#Earnings Bought to Open $DG May31/Jun07 118 #DoubleCalendar for .38 & .39.
#Earnings $DG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 BO -7.49%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO -6.80%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.97%
May 31, 2018 BO -9.36%
March 15, 2018 BO +4.75%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO +2.77%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -5.43%
June 1, 2017 BO +6.54% Biggest UP
March 16, 2017 BO +0.53%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO -4.96%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -17.62% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO +4.61%
Avg (+ or -) 5.99%
Bias -2.79%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 119.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 112.81 to 125.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 111.88 to 126.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 98.03 to 139.97
Based on UP Max only (+6.5%): 126.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $DLTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 6, 2019 BO +5.11%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +6.13%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -15.54% Biggest DOWN
May 31, 2018 BO -14.28%
March 7, 2018 BO -14.47%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO +2.41%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +5.62%
May 25, 2017 BO +0.92%
March 1, 2017 BO +0.20%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +8.15%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -9.93%
May 26, 2016 BO +12.77% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.96%
Bias -1.08%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 96.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 89.87 to 103.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 88.82 to 104.18
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.5%): 81.50 to 111.50
Based on UP Max only (+12.8%): 108.82
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Aug. 30, 2016 AC -7.16%
May 26, 2016 AC -12.36%
Avg (+ or -) 8.79%
Bias -1.07%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 212.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 194.69 to 230.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 193.81 to 231.19
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 161.18 to 263.82
Based on UP Max only (+17.2%): 249.05
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Sold to close first batch of $ANF May 31st 25 puts for 5.25. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 3.23.
#SPX1dte Closing right at the bell on GTC order: $SPX May 31st 2885/2910 call spreads for .25. Sold on Friday for 2.75.
#Earnings Bought to open $ANF May 31st 25 #LongStraddle for 3.23. Needs a 12.9% move. Avg has been 16.1%
#SPX1dte sold $SPX May 29th 2750/2770-2850/2865 condors for 1.05 (IV 13.88%, SPX 2812.
Also, in smaller account sold 2765/2770-2850/2855 condors for .45.
#Earnings $CPRI (formerly $KORS) reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. Feb 2019 is from symbol CPRI, and the remainder are under symbol KORS.
Feb. 6, 2019 BO +11.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 BO -14.62% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 BO +6.72%
May 30, 2018 BO -11.44%
Feb. 7, 2018 BO +1.02%
Nov. 6, 2017 BO +14.69%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO +21.54% Biggest UP
May 31, 2017 BO -8.51%
Feb. 7, 2017 BO -10.80%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC -3.97%
Aug. 10, 2016 BO -2.79%
June 1, 2016 BO +6.62%
Avg (+ or -) 9.50%
Bias 0.81%, slightly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 39.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.65 to 43.35
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.29 to 42.71
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.5%): 30.60 to 47.40
Based on DOWN Max only (-14.6%): 33.30
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO -15.66%
Avg (+ or -) 16.06%
Bias 3.46%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 25.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 21.96 to 28.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 21.20 to 29.30
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.9%): 19.22 to 31.28
Based on DOWN Max only (-20.3%): 20.12
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX May 28th 2775 puts for .10. Condors sold for 1.10 on Friday. Nice to have risk off so early.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 28th 2755/2775-2870/2885 condors for 1.10. (IV: 10.17%, SPX 2828)
GDP report on Thursday morning.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=27&month=5&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 31st 2885/2910 call spreads for 2.60. Rotated one of these this week, so selling another, offset by the 2725/2700 put spread.
#Earnings Sold to close $INTU 245 #DoubleCalendar for 1.35, small loss. Opened yesterday for 1.525.
There was a chance to close with a profit this morning, but I thought the morning weakness would drag it down. But it keeps going higher, so I’m bailing. Often a tough call closing these trades..
#SPX1dte For a refreshing change, legging out worked for me today.
Bought to close $SPX May 24th 2840/2815 put spreads for 5.20. Sold in a condor for 4.55 on 5/16.
Barring disaster, expiring today: May 24th 2735/2755-2860/2880 condors, sold yesterday for .90
#Earnings Closed second half of $CTRP May24/May31 38 calendar for .75. Opened for .26 on Wednesday, closed for .58, avg price. A small double, but a double nonetheless.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 24th 2735/2755-2860/2880 condors for .90 (IV: 16.11%, SPX 2820)
#Earnings Paid .02 to close the 110 put calendar on $LOW. It’s too low. Bought for .50 on Tuesday.
Sold to close half of the $CTRP May24/May31 38 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Bought yesterday for .26. Looking to close the rest when price drifts a bit higher, today or tomorrow.
Filled on more of the $INTU dub cal at 1.55. Still only partial fill, but I’m not going to go any higher.
I want to play $SPLK bullish but the market isn’t cooperating with my confidence.
#Earnings Bought $INTU May 24/May31 245 #DoubleCalendar for 1.50. Only a partial fill, and then price seems to be running higher. This is not heavy mover normally. Positioned slightly bullish since everything has pulled back today, and it has a bullish bias on earnings..
#Earnings $INTU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +6.76% Biggest UP
Nov. 19, 2018 AC -2.03%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +1.96%
May 22, 2018 AC +2.98%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -0.18%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC -3.79% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -1.90%
May 23, 2017 AC +6.72%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +6.05%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +1.91%
Aug. 23, 2016 AC -3.50%
May 24, 2016 AC -2.13%
Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 253.87 to 276.61
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 234.43 to 250.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 226.11 to 258.89
Based on maximum DOWN only (-3.8%): 233.31
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 AC +2.56%
Avg (+ or -) 7.48%
Bias 3.08%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 131.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 121.63 to 140.37
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 120.28 to 139.72
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 106.74 to 153.26
Based on max DOWN move only (-10.1%): 116.87
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Closed on GTC order: $SPX May 31st 2920/2945 call spread for .30. Sold Tuesday for 3.00.
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX May 22nd 2825/2805 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.00. Flirting with a bit too much volatility lately to allow these to expire comfortably.
#Earnings Out of the three candidates this morning, this one had the best Dub-Cal return and lowest average post-earnings move (other two were $BBY and $NTAP). However, it did have its biggest moves in last two quarters.
Bought $CTRP May 24/May31 38 #DoubleCalendar for .25 and .27. Double size since cost is so low.
#Earnings $CTRP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 4, 2019 AC +19.77% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -19.01% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +5.43%
May 22, 2018 AC +3.98%
March 14, 2018 AC -1.94%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.29%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -2.40%
May 10, 2017 AC -3.52%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +1.44%
Nov. 23, 2016 AC +9.80%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC +3.40%
June 15, 2016 AC +1.50%
Avg (+ or -) 6.21%
Bias 1.35%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 38.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.33 to 41.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.64 to 40.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 30.49 to 45.51
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $BBY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 27, 2019 BO +14.11%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO +2.13%
Aug. 28, 2018 BO -5.00%
May 24, 2018 BO -6.64%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.94%
Nov. 16, 2017 BO -3.57%
Aug. 29, 2017 BO -11.92% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 BO +21.47% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 BO -4.50%
Nov. 17, 2016 BO +13.69%
Aug. 23, 2016 BO +19.60%
May 24, 2016 BO -7.42%
Avg (+ or -) 9.50%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 69.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 64.17 to 74.83
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.90 to 76.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.5%): 54.58 to 84.42
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.9%): 61.22
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 22nd 2805/2825-2895/2915 condors for .95
Also, sold a wider condor, legging in…
Yesterday, sold May 31st 2725/2700 put spreads for 2.10
Today, sold May 31st 2920/2945 call spreads for 3.00
#Earnings Bought to Open $LOW May24/May31 110 #DoubleCalendar for .50.
#Earnings $LOW reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 27, 2019 BO +2.46%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -5.65%
Aug. 22, 2018 BO +5.79%
May 23, 2018 BO +10.42% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2018 BO -6.47% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -1.06%
Aug. 23, 2017 BO -3.70%
May 24, 2017 BO -3.02%
March 1, 2017 BO +9.51%
Nov. 16, 2016 BO -2.93%
Aug. 17, 2016 BO -5.64%
May 18, 2016 BO +3.32%
Avg (+ or -) 5.00%
Bias 0.25%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 109.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 103.05 to 114.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 103.55 to 114.45
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.4%): 97.64 to 120.36
Based on DOWN Max only (-6.5%): 101.95
Open to requests for other symbols.
This is the first time I remember seeing this, but the expected move is LESS than the 12-quarter historical move MAXIMUMS. $HD has moved very little on recent earnings, but current IV projects it to move more than it has since Nov 2015.
#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +1.41%
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -2.56%
Aug. 16, 2016 BO -0.60%
May 17, 2016 BO -2.46%
Avg (+ or -) 1.27%
Bias -0.67%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 192.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 185.43 to 198.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 189.55 to 194.45
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (2.7%): 186.91 to 197.09
Based on UP Max only (+1.6%): 195.13
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Tagged my stop level on the opening dip so I’m out with small loss.
BTC $SPX May 20th 2815/2795 put spreads for 1.05. Condors sold for .85 on Friday.
Also, stopped May 31st 2840/2815 put spreads for 8.70. #CondorRoll sold for 6.65 on Thursday.
#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
May 24, 2016 BO +2.47%
Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias -2.10%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 985.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 925.51 to 1,044.49
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 939.44 to 1,030.56
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 868.38 to 1,101.62
Based on UP Max only (+6.7%): 1,051.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings So the trade headline killed my trade… as usual, legging out is a very bad idea for me. Some accounts now have a loss in this trade, while others will breakeven.
Sold $NVDA long 155 calls for 1.48.
“Sources” say trade talks have stalled. Is this really news? How can anyone suddenly be surprised and start selling? Answer: no one can… the computers do it.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 20th 2795/2815-2910/2925 condors for .85. (IV: 10.04%, SPX 2873)
Expiring: May 17th 2810/2830-2910/2930 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.
#Earnings On this minor dip I bought to close all of the short 160 calls for .46. Now I will wait for a drift higher to sell the long 155 calls, and get a few cents for the 162.5 calls as well.
Meanwhile, $DE trade was a miss, but a super cheap one. And I have 160 calls as a lottery ticket for next week.
FOMC minutes on Wednesday
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=20&month=5&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Earnings Closed first few $NVDA 155/160/162.5 call #BrokenWingButterfly lots for 3.00. Bought yesterday for 1.49.
Since we are hovering around the center strike I will wait to try for higher prices on the remainder.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 17th 2810/2830/2910/2930 condors for 1.30. (IV 13.71%, SPX 2879).
#SPX1dte Stopped out $SPX March 16th 2895/2905 call spreads for 3.05. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.
Another #CondorRoll, same strikes as I sold earlier for May 31st, but this time a week earlier:
Sold $SPX 2815/2840-2960/2985 condors for 4.55.
#SPX1dte The biggest up days in history are all during times of market volatility. On a percentage basis, the Fall of 2008 contains five of the top 10 biggest moves UP; a period in which the market was only starting its fall to lose over half its value.
So it is fitting a call spread I could have closed at yesterday’s open for about .45 I now had to stop out for 8.00. Today’s action has provided no pullback opportunities, although I imagine there’ll be one now that I was finally forced out.
BTC $SPX May 17th 2890/2915 call spreads for 8.00. Sold for 2.10 on Monday.
#CondorRoll Sold $SPX May 31st 2815/2840/2960/2985 condors for 6.65
I’m also going to take a loss on today’s monthly condor call side. I cannot risk overnight gap risk on the 2895 short calls.
#Earnings I was looking at a #DoubleCalendar, ATM going for about 1.50, but didn’t want the risk as I think a bigger than average move may be possible. Market is crazy bullish at the moment, entirely Trade-War driven. So I looked at an OTM call calendar at 160. The front calls don’t even have a bid, so, I just went with the “buy” half of the Calendar…
Bought to open $DE May 24th 160 calls for .18.
Looking at the daily chart, DE was close to 170 just a couple weeks ago. Unless the report is bad, I believe it has a good shot at a large move tomorrow, or even a further drift upward into next week, when these expire. It is a much better risk/reward play in an uncertain market. Needs any move up to be profitable, and about a 9% move up to be ATM.
#Earnings Bought to Open $NVDA May 17th 155/160/162.5 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.49. Bullish trade with no upside risk.
#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +13.49% Biggest UP
May 20, 2016 BO -5.48% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.18%
Bias 3.02%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 146.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 140.45 to 151.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 138.43 to 153.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 126.30 to 165.70
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.5%): 138.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC +5.59%
May 12, 2016 AC +15.20%
Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias 4.06%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 159.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 147.20 to 170.80
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 143.68 to 174.32
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 111.62 to 206.38
Based on DOWN Max only (-18.8%): 129.19
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45% Biggest UP
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
April 28, 2016 AC +4.45%
Avg (+ or -) 5.13%
Bias -0.10%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 145.46 to 159.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 144.67 to 160.33
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 138.09 to 166.91
Based on DOWN Max only (-8.2%): 140.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 16th (monthlys) 2775/2795/2895/2915 condors for 1.20. (IV 16.47%, SPX 2856)
These stop trading tomorrow at the close but will settle with Friday morning’s opening.
Expiring, May 15th 2770/2790/2885/2905 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
Stocks, automakers jump as Trump plans to delay auto tariffs by 6 months https://t.co/ngxxAzqHKz pic.twitter.com/lrDdQkIO1r
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) May 15, 2019
#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%
May 10, 2017 AC -0.82%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +14.08% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2016 AC -9.22%
Aug. 17, 2016 AC -2.67%
May 11, 2016 AC +0.43%
Avg (+ or -) 6.73%
Bias -2.11%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 262.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 245.55 to 279.45
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 244.84 to 280.16
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 225.54 to 299.46
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.0%): 233.73
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 15th 2770/2790-2885/2905 condors for 1.15 (IV: 15.16%, SPX 2850)
#Earnings $M reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +1.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 BO -7.18%
Aug. 15, 2018 BO -15.94%
May 16, 2018 BO +10.82%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO +3.46%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +10.98%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -10.24%
May 11, 2017 BO -17.00% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2017 BO -0.03%
Nov. 10, 2016 BO +5.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +17.08% Biggest UP
May 11, 2016 BO -15.16%
Avg (+ or -) 9.58%
Bias -1.35%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 21.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 19.68 to 23.82
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 19.67 to 23.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 18.04 to 25.46
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Looks like I picked the wrong week for a #RevengeTrade.
After losing on an earnings condor I sold the $GOOGL ITM May 17th 1220/1120 put spread for 7.75 on May 3rd. I managed to get out for 8.55 by legging out, which I can assure you is not a relaxing endeavor with options that cost 80.00. I will look to take advantage of the next bull run, but not gonna mess with it now.
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +5.08%
May 5, 2016 BO +3.96%
Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias 0.87%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 172.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 163.16 to 181.84
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 166.76 to 178.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 161.58 to 183.42
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.9%): 162.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1-dte As another short term trade, replacing call spreads closed Friday,
Sold $SPX March 17th (weeklys) 2890/2915 call spreads for 2.95.
Also, closed today’s 2790/2770 put spreads for .30. Hovering between 1.00 and 4.00 all day, finally got out. I had to close the call spread at Friday’s close, unfortunately; it would not have been a concern today!
#VXXGame Bought more $VXX Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.40. Adding to first batch I bought for 1.75 on Jan 22nd.
The 2021 puts are still too expensive, but I’m watching.
#SPX1dte After selling the condor, SPX moved up from 2868 to top out at 2891, which was within the expected move for Monday. So I had to stop out of the call side for 1.40.
I may sell a same day condor on Monday if the open in quiet, but otherwise this one’s s small loss.
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Earlier: BTC $TQQQ May 17th 68.5 calls for .12. Sold for 1.26 on Monday.
Now: Sold TQQQ May 31st 65 calls for 1.25
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 13th 2770/2790-2920/2940 condors for 1.15. (IV: 14.08%, SPX 2868)
Also, closed SPX May 17th 2960/2985 call spreads for .40. Sold on Monday for 3.15.
Nothing big on the schedule but we’ll still have this trade mess. My prediction: no deal, yet, and will stretch into at least June.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=13&month=5&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Earnings Sold some 39.5 long puts for 3.75, but now waiting as it looks to want to drop more. #LongStrangle bought yesterday for 4.37.
Filled on next batch for 4.50 and 4.75.
#SPX1dte $SPX May 10th 2760/2780-2920/2940 condors closed for .30. Sold yesterday for 2.05. Super high premium paid off on pretty much the expected news on trade talks: “not yet.”
#Earnings Bought to open $YELP May 10th 39.5/40 #LongStrangle for 4.37. I need an 11.8% move for breakeven. Avg move on earnings is 15.2%.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 10th 2760/2780-2920/2940 condors for 2.05. (IV 25.92%, SPX 2864)
A little more aggressive than normal from a delta standpoint, .08 on both sides rather than .06. But in quiet IV times I have gone as high as .10 to get enough premium, and these strikes are decently OTM. Puts 2.9% away and Calls 2.0% away. Yes, it’s possible, and if we get super big news tonight, I may get stopped out tomorrow.
#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
May 3, 2016 AC +12.05%
Avg (+ or -) 10.22%
Bias -0.77%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.83 to 38.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 30.53 to 37.47
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 24.85 to 43.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
May 5, 2016 AC +23.71%
Avg (+ or -) 15.17%
Bias 1.63%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 39.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.04 to 44.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 33.59 to 45.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 28.65 to 50.55
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 29.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Avg (+ or -) 6.00%
Bias -1.61%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 123.53 to 140.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 124.08 to 139.92
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 114.67 to 149.33
Based on UP max only (8.7%): 143.44
Open to requests for other symbols.
$STMP tanking again… oh, to have been short!
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX May 8th 2780/2800/2930/2950 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05.
TOS is confirming tomorrow after the close. These guys are always a guessing game until last minute.
#SyntheticCoveredCalls #LongLEAPs I’m still at it, selling weekly calls against my Jan 2020 66.67 long calls. I have been underwater and ITM on them for a few weeks, but the pullback allowed me to escape. I mistakenly forgot to close some ITM calls expiring Friday, so Monday’s gap down was super fortunate and allowed me to finally get above water.
Monday: Sold $TQQQ May 17th 68.5 calls for 1.26 (and covered short stock assigned Friday)
Today: Sold TQQQ May 24th 67.5 calls for 1.23
Options Bistro 