BABA earnings analysis

#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +5.08%
May 5, 2016 BO +3.96%

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias 0.87%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 172.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 163.16 to 181.84
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 166.76 to 178.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 161.58 to 183.42
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.9%): 162.32

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