UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Adding one here…

Sold 1 UVXY MAY 24 2019 40.0 Call @ 1.40

Expiring in the nick of time

#SPX1dte 2890/2910-2965/2980 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10. If the market had another 30 minutes the put side might be in trouble. Pretty sharp drop into the close, after notching a new intraday all-time high earlier today.

W earnings analysis

#Earnings $W reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 22, 2019 BO +27.85% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 BO -12.81%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +7.54%
May 2, 2018 BO +13.65%
Feb. 22, 2018 BO -22.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -15.54%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO -6.26%
May 9, 2017 BO +20.73%
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -6.49%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -4.13%
Aug. 9, 2016 BO -19.58%
May 9, 2016 BO +10.16%

Avg (+ or -) 13.95%
Bias -0.63%, tiny negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 165.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 145.60 to 184.40
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 141.98 to 188.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (27.9%): 119.05 to 210.95
Based on DOWN max only (-22.7%): 127.53

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings CI SQ

CI Sold June 21, 140/180 strangle for 2.81
SQ Sold June 21, 60/90 strangle for 1.16

Jeff

How do you decide if for earnings how you do the different strategy’s?

A TRADE:

IRBT STO 5/3/19 101/96 BuPS @ .87

SQ earnings analysis

#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +8.42%
May 5, 2016 AC -21.68% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 7.42%
Bias 1.52%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 74.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 69.18 to 78.82
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 68.51 to 79.49
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (21.7%): 57.96 to 90.04
Based on UP max only (+14.0%): 84.37

Open to requests for other symbols.