Downside Warning

#VIXIndicator A Downside Warning is now in effect… look for continued drop, at least in the short term.

A TRADE:

IRBT BTO STOCK @98.45
IRBT STO 98.5 5/10/19 CALLS @2.10

#shortputs IRBT

Sold June 21, 80 put for 1.27, thanks honkhonk

TRADES:

IRBT BTO STOCK @97.79
IRBT STO 5/10/19 98.0 CALLS @2.00

#earnings #closing AMD

AMD April 30 sold June 21, 27 straddle for 4.55, bought today for 3.91. I could have done better earlier, worried about a bigger drop.

SPX extra

#SPX1dte An extra bearish trade since that seems to be the new black:
Sold $SPX May 17th (weeklys) 2960/2985 call spreads for 3.15.

#earnings TRIP MPC

TRIP sold June 21, 45/65 strangle for 1.15
MPC sold June 21, 50/65 strangle for 1.31

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte — nice to have some volatility again, allowing for wider condor.

Sold $SPX May 8th 2780/2800-2930/2950 condors for 1.05, IV: 20.7%, SPX 2873.

EA earnings analysis

#Earnings $EA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 5, 2019 AC -13.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -4.05%
July 26, 2018 AC -5.70%
May 8, 2018 AC +5.74%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.95%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC -4.28%
July 27, 2017 AC +0.55%
May 9, 2017 AC +12.65%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -0.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +1.64%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC +2.40%
May 10, 2016 AC +13.69% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 5.96%
Bias 1.32%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 92.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 84.80 to 100.20
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 86.99 to 98.01
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.7%): 79.84 to 105.16
Based on DOWN max only (-13.3%): 80.20

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings EA

I’m not afraid, sold June 21, 75/110 strangle for 1.58. As for WYNN, I am afraid.