A TRADE:

IRBT BTO STOCK @ 100.50

A TRADE:

IRBT BTO STOCK A teeny bit @100.42

MMM put spread

Sold $MMM Jun 21 170/160 bull put spread @ 1.22. Delta of short strike 22.

TRADES:

YETI STO 5/10/19 30.5 CALLS @.90
YETI STO 510/19 30.5 PUTS @1.25 Straddle Risky May need adjusting.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 6th 2905/2885 put spreads for 1.85. Condors sold for .80 on low-volatility Friday.

Not a good morning to wake up to an ITM spread, but with such a large gap it seemed the move would be faded. Now it looks to have run out of steam, so not taking the chance of a collapse into the close.

#earnings BUD

Sold June 21, 80/95 strangle for 1.44, thanks Jeff

TRADES:

IRBT STO 5/10/19 105.0 CALLS @1.14
IRBT STC STOCK @100.80

BUD earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings $BUD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Bought to Open BUD May10/May17 87.5 #DoubleCalendar for .42 & .44

Feb. 28, 2019 BO +4.60%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -9.37% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO -5.02%
May 9, 2018 BO -0.31%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.07%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
July 27, 2017 BO +6.16% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 BO +5.68%
March 2, 2017 BO -3.72%
Oct. 28, 2016 BO -3.80%
July 29, 2016 BO +2.79%
May 4, 2016 BO -1.53%

Avg (+ or -) 3.92%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.43 to 91.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 84.07 to 90.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 79.30 to 95.70
Based on UP max only (+6.2%): 92.89

Open to requests for other symbols.

#shortstrangles DE

Sold June 21, 140/180 strangle for 1.93. DE is down around 6 points to 160 today on the tariff stuff

HTZ earnings analysis

#Earnings $HTZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 25, 2019 AC +4.04%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +19.15%
Aug. 6, 2018 AC +24.63% Biggest UP
May 7, 2018 AC -18.72%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC -5.55%
Nov. 10, 2017 BO -2.24%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC +23.03%
May 8, 2017 AC -14.15%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO +13.59%
Nov. 7, 2016 AC -22.49% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2016 AC -4.96%
May 9, 2016 AC +0.22%

Avg (+ or -) 12.73%
Bias 1.38%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 19.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 17.31 to 22.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 17.24 to 22.26
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (24.6%): 14.89 to 24.61
Based on DOWN max only (-22.6%): 15.31

Open to requests for other symbols.

BA put spread

Sold $BA 6/21 350/340 bull put spread @ 1.98

UVXY call spreads

Sold:
$UVXY Jun 7 40/50 bear call spread @ 1.37
$UVXY Jun 14 40/50 bear call spread @ 1.39

UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Cautiously adding one here…

Sold UVXY MAY 31 2019 40.0 Call @ 2.30

REGN earnings analysis

#Earnings $REGN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO +4.73%

Avg (+ or -) 3.12%
Bias 1.10%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 335.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 315.64 to 354.36
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 325.52 to 346.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (7.0%): 312.51 to 359.49
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 323.97

Open to requests for other symbols.

VIX Indicator

#VIXIndicator, needless to say, the minor upside warning was canceled this morning with a $VIX high of 18.80 (we only needed 16.09). Any close at 16.09 or higher will mean a Downside Warning.