#Webinar I’ll be holding a webinar later today on #DoubleCalendar earnings trades. It will be either live or recorded, depending on how smoothly I can get the software operating. Either way, it WILL be recorded for future viewing, so don’t worry if you miss it. Shooting for 2pm ET, 11am PT.
Author Archives: Jeff
STZ earnings analysis
#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -1.78%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75%
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%
Oct. 5, 2016 BO +0.07%
June 30, 2016 BO +6.37%
April 6, 2016 BO +13.07% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 5.82%
Bias 3.42%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 167.70 to 187.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 167.17 to 187.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 154.30 to 200.70
Based on DOWN max only (-12.4%): 155.47
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed Z$SPX Apr 3rd 2885/2895 all spreads for 1.60. Condors sold yesterday for 1.15, so .45 loss. Too tight with the low IV.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 3rd 2820/2840-2885/2895 condors for 1.15. (IV 8.55% SPX 2866)
Also BTC Apr 5th 2865/2890 call spreads for 9.70. I’m eating a day to roll this. If we get $VIX closes below 13.55 today and tomorrow, it should mean a push in the short-term toward 2900. I’ll sell aggressively based on tomorrow’s action.
SIG earnings analysis
#Earnings $SIG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
I have never traded this, but it is a big mover
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -18.04%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +23.84% Biggest UP
June 6, 2018 BO +18.39%
March 14, 2018 BO -20.22%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -30.39% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +16.66%
May 25, 2017 BO -7.75%
March 9, 2017 BO +8.72%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +2.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -12.62%
May 26, 2016 BO -10.49%
March 24, 2016 BO +2.88%
Avg (+ or -) 14.35%
Bias -2.24%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 27.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.31 to 31.69
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 23.56 to 31.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (30.4%): 19.14 to 35.86
Based on UP max only (+23.8%): 34.06
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX roll
SPX 1 die
#SPXdte Pressured on the upside this week… BTC $SPX April 1st 2855/2875 call spreads for 4.40. Condors sold Thursday for 1.00. Should have closed this Friday.
Also rolling the April 5th call spread I have. No trade yet.
I’m going to start watching Market Tide indicator more to help guide these trades. I’m putting up /ES 1-hour and 10-min charts, since these are mostly 1-day trades with a few that are 1-5 weeks out.
Anyone prefer $SPY to /ES for the Tide?
SPX 1-dte and final trades
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2790/2770 put spreads for .45. This is a roll-up from the puts closed this morning. I’m leaving the 2855/2875 call spread in place.
Expiring: March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors, sold this morning for 1.10.
#Earnings $CCL #IronButterfly from Monday a flop… exercising for loss of 1.25 on the sale for 2.25.
Econ Calendar for week of 4/1/19
#Jobs Report is Friday morning
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=1&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
Your Lyft is on the way!
SPX 1-dte update
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX April 1st 2740/2720 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of condor yesterday… condor for 1.00, put side was .41 of that.
SQ cals
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $SQ Apr 12th 78.5 calls for 1.05
SPX 6-hte
#SPX1dte Since I messed up and sold Monday’s expiration yesterday, I’m selling TODAY’s expiration now.
Sold $SPX March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors for 1.10. Expires tonight. (IV 12.71% SPX 2824)
IV is high enough that it isn’t too risky to get decent premium. From a delta standpoint I’m being more aggressive on the call side, but we haven’t seen any blistering rallies on Friday afternoons lately.
SPX 1-dte, er, 2-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2720/2740-2855/2875 condors for 1.00 (IV: 11.32%, SPX 2811). Meant to sell March 29th but I sold Monday’s.
SPX ITM puts closed
#SPX1dte I got punched around pretty bad in March with a couple of 1-dte breaches and failed attempts at rolling. This reverse roll was the worst; had I left the call spread it would have ben fine. Thank God for strong months like February to eclipse small losing months like March.
BTC $SPX March 29th 2820/2800 put spreads for 8.50. Sold for 4.80 on March 19th as a #ReverseRoll.
RH earnings analysis
#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Always a big mover. Expected move is less than average move, meaning options are underpriced.
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75%
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69%
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
June 8, 2016 AC -21.23%
March 29, 2016 AC +3.97%
Avg (+ or -) 17.46%
Bias 4.45%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 130.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.45 to 148.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 107.30 to 152.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 71.83 to 188.18
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 96.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte puts closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 27th 2755 short puts for .10. Allowing remainder to expire. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.
INTC covered calls
#CoveredCalls Sold to Open #INTC Apr 26th 54 covered calls for 1.61. These expire before the ex-div. Earnings date not confirmed, so it could be before or after this expiry.
FIVE earnings analysis
#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
This stock is one of the most historically bullish movers on earnings.
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86%
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45%
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
June 2, 2016 AC +2.07%
March 22, 2016 AC +6.81%
Avg (+ or -) 6.43%
Bias 5.14%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 118.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 108.40 to 128.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 110.88 to 126.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 92.60 to 144.40
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 114.41
Open to requests for other symbols.
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31%
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO +4.90%
March 30, 2016 BO +10.71%
Avg (+ or -) 11.81%
Bias 3.92%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 144.550 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 130.30 to 158.70
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.43 to 161.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 110.64 to 178.36
Based on UP max only (+16.3%): 168.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
SQ calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $SQ Mar 29th 79.5 calls for .05. Sold for .95 last Tuesday.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Mar 27th 2735/2755/2840/2855 condors for 1.20. (IV: 13.97%, SPX 2806)
Also, BTC March 29th 2860/2885 call spreads for 1.05. Sold for 3.75 on Friday.
NUGT calls
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $NUGT Jan 2020 40 calls for 2.10. Took over a month since it last peaked, but patience can be a virtue with these levered suckers.
CCL earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings — I’m selling the CCL Mar 29th 53/56.5/60 #IronButterfly. Trying for 2.30, but will likely have to go lower. Not a big mover… its only large move was in December during the Christmas dive.
$CCL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -9.48% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 27, 2018 BO -4.83%
June 25, 2018 BO -7.85%
March 22, 2018 BO -1.28%
Dec. 19, 2017 BO +2.29%
Sept. 26, 2017 BO +2.86%
June 22, 2017 BO -1.11%
March 28, 2017 BO +0.66%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +2.27%
Sept. 26, 2016 BO -1.67%
June 28, 2016 BO +0.20%
March 30, 2016 BO +5.49% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias -1.04%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 56.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.53 to 59.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.62 to 58.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 51.14 to 61.86
Based on UP max only (+5.5%): 59.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte puts closed
#SPX1dte Filled at 9:14am ET on $SPX Mar 25th 2755/2735 put spreads for .25 (bought to close). Condors sold Friday for 1.00. Order in to close short 2855 calls for .05.
Final Trades and Expirations
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $NKE Mar22/Mar29 88 put calendar for .02. Holding long 88 calls into next Friday. Good job by Mort closing the put calendar earlier at .17… I just had too much faith. Double Calendars bought yesterday for .49.
Exercising: $TIF 96/100/102 calls #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.50. Allowing to exercise on IB for about 70 cents in fees per lot, but closed manually for 2.00 on TOS to avoid $45 in fees.
SPX 1dte sold
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 25th 2735/2755/2855/2875 condors for 1.00 (IV: 11.64%, SPX: 2809)
SPX 27-dte roll
Econ Calendar for week of 3/25/19
–Various Fed speakers throughout the week
–GDP report Thursday before the opening bell.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=25&month=3&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte I can say I was not expecting this after yesterday, but clearly volatility is coming back for at least a visit, if not to stay longer this time. Also getting too loose with my rules…. stop level was hit on the first dip. But it never fails that when I follow my rule and dump out for breakeven, the day ends flat. If I let it go, then we end up ITM. This is two big hits in the month, so must change my ways. Thank God Feb was so strong for my accounts!
BTC $SPX March 22nd 2810/2790 put spreads for 5.00. Condors sold for .80 yesterday.
With the warning signal from the VIX looking to sell a week-out call spread. Also have the March 29th 2820/2800 put spreads, now ITM. Will give these until Monday to see if this is a head fake and look to roll it then.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator It was only a “minor” one so not surprising that it didn’t last long or go far… VIX spiked today to reach 25% higher than yesterday’s close, so that cancels the minor upside warning. A close at 17.04 or higher would be a Downside Warning.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 22 2790/2810/2880/2890 condors for .80. (IV: 10.86%, SPX 2851)
Also, closed $SPX March 22 2780/2755 put spreads for .10. Sold for 3.45 on March 13th.
TIF earnings butterfly (bullish)
#Earnings Bought to Open $TIF 96/100/102 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls) for 1.50.
Max loss: $150
Downside breakeven: 97.50
Max profit: 2.50 (if pin at 100)
Capped profit at 102 and above: .50
NKE dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $NKE Mar22/Mar29 88 #DoubleCalendar for .49.
TIF earnings analysis
#Earnings — $TIF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 28, 2018 BO -11.82% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 BO +0.99%
May 23, 2018 BO +23.28% Biggest UP
March 16, 2018 BO -5.06%
Nov. 29, 2017 BO -1.58%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO -1.32%
May 24, 2017 BO -8.70%
March 17, 2017 BO +2.71%
Nov. 29, 2016 BO +3.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +6.40%
May 25, 2016 BO +0.06%
March 18, 2016 BO +2.95%
Avg (+ or -) 5.67%
Bias 0.92%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 93.90 to 106.10
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 94.33 to 105.67
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.3%): 76.72 to 123.28
Based on DOWN max only (-11.8%): 88.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
NKE earnings analysis
#Earnings — $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%
June 28, 2016 AC +3.84%
March 22, 2016 AC -3.79%
Avg (+ or -) 4.54%
Bias 1.19%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 87.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.36 to 92.04
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 83.72 to 91.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.7%): 77.95 to 97.45
Based on DOWN max only (-7.1%): 81.53
Open to requests for other symbols.
Happy Spring
The wk after March option expiration (so this wk) has seen the S&P 500 down each of the past 7 yrs. Only wk to do that.
Also, the avg return the past 7 yrs is -1.6% = making it the worst wk of yr.
In fact, the SPX was down 6% this same wk last yr.
Hmm. pic.twitter.com/dwMKQQLoSO
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 21, 2019
WSM earnings analysis
#Earnings — $WSM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THIRTY-FOUR-day moves over the last 12 quarters, since the next available options are 29 days from expiry.
Thu 11/15/2018 AC -18.61% Biggest DOWN
Wed 08/22/2018 AC +4.62%
Wed 05/23/2018 AC +26.22% Biggest UP
Wed 03/14/2018 AC -9.19%
Thu 11/16/2017 AC +1.95%
Wed 08/23/2017 AC +15.20%
Wed 05/24/2017 AC -2.43%
Wed 03/15/2017 AC +11.99%
Thu 11/17/2016 AC +0.37%
Wed 08/24/2016 AC -6.61%
Wed 05/25/2016 AC -1.78%
Wed 03/16/2016 AC +0.38%
Avg (+ or -) 8.28%
Bias 1.84%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 57.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into APRIL EXPIRATION per TOS): 51.34 to 63.66
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 52.74 to 62.26
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.2%): 42.42 to 72.58
Based on DOWN max only (-18.6%): 46.80
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Earlier, bought to close $SPX March 20th 2870 short calls for .05.
Just now, BTC 2790/2770 put spreads for .10.
Sold condors yesterday for .75. Chose to not allow to expire as FOMC announcements are unpredictable. Now, however, as we are dead flat, things look safe for expiry.
MU earnings analysis
#Earnings — $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC +7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC +12.68% Biggest UP
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%
June 30, 2016 AC -9.15% Biggest DOWN
March 30, 2016 AC -0.09%
Avg (+ or -) 5.59%
Bias -0.02%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 40.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 37.05 to 42.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 37.76 to 42.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.7%): 34.93 to 45.07
Based on DOWN max only (-9.2%): 36.34
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 20th 2770/2790-2870/2885 condors for .75. (IV: 12.0%, SPX: 2832).
SPX reverse roll
#SPX1dte I’m reversing my ill-timed decision to sell a call spread yesterday. We’re in an Upside Warning and the market strength is pervasive. I fortunately got a pullback on some China murmurs, so was able to get out at a non-embarrassing price.
Bought to close $SPX Mar 22nd 2860/2885 call spreads for 4.80. Sold yesterday for 3.10
Sold to Open SPX Mar 29th 2820/2800 put spreads for 4.80
SQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $SQ Mar 29th 79.5 calls for .95
FDX earnings analysis
#Earnings — $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC +2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +6.89%
June 21, 2016 AC -4.53%
March 16, 2016 AC +11.83% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.79%
Bias -0.12%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 183.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 172.73 to 193.27
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 174.24 to 191.76
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.2%): 160.75 to 205.25
Based on UP max only (+11.8%): 204.65
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte The long spreads I bought Friday didn’t work; was able to sell a few call spreads for .15 and .20 tis morning.
Since I still have a put spread expiring this Friday, I also sold $SPX March 22nd 2860/2885 call spreads for 3.10.
On a slow day, I…
On a slow day, I think of ice cream
Don’t miss out, first day of spring this Wednesday!
TQQQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $TQQQ Apr 5th 54 calls for 3.40
Long LEAPs calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
this week I got out of one with profit and stopped on the other.
BTC $SQ March 15th 79 calls for .10 on Thursday. Sold for 1.00 last week.
BTC $TQQQ March 22nd 52 calls for 3.30 on Wednesday. Sold for 1.25 on Monday. Not filled on roll attempt today so will try again on Monday.
Final Trades and Expirations
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close $SFIX Mar 22nd 25 calls for 6.80. Waited since Wednesday for this to bounce meaningfully above 32.00, but it didn’t. So I lost a few extra cents on closing, since I covered the short puts and stock for 6.90.
Sold final batch of $ORCL 53 dub cals for .80. Also legged out of a couple to get .85 total. Never has there been a more perfect Friday for a double calendar. Bought for .23 & .24 yesterday.
Bought to close $INTC Mar 15th 50 #CoveredCalls for 4.30 to avoid assignment. Will replace with new calls or sell stock next week.
#OptionsExpiration
$AVGO 260/265/267.5 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls), exercising for 2.50 credit (bought for 1.70 yesterday).
$ADBE 245/250/280/285 condors, sold for 1.12 yesterday.
$SPX 2755/2775-2835/2855 condors, sold yesterday for .75
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Too cheap to go short, so trying a long shot again…
Bought to open $SPX 2770/2790-2850/2860 broken-wing iron condor for .55. (IV: 6.23%, SPX: 2820)
Econ Calendar for week of 3/18/19
FOMC meeting and press conference on Wednesday at 2pm ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=18&month=3&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
ORCL starting to close
#Earnings Sold to close first batch of $ORCL Mar15/Mar22 53 #DoubleCalendar for .50. Watching for better exit on the next batch. Bought yesterday for .23 and .24
OSTK earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings — $OSTK reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Thu 11/08/2018 AC -12.62%
Thu 08/09/2018 AC -14.77% Biggest DOWN
Tue 05/08/2018 AC -4.19%
Thu 03/15/2018 AC -3.63%
Wed 11/08/2017 AC +40.40% Biggest UP
Thu 08/03/2017 AC +6.99%
Thu 05/04/2017 AC -1.29%
Tue 01/31/2017 AC +1.20%
Thu 11/03/2016 AC +21.75%
Thu 08/04/2016 AC -0.74%
Tue 05/03/2016 AC +2.96%
Tue 02/09/2016 AC +30.59%
Avg (+ or -) 11.76%
Bias 5.55%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 20.25 the data suggests these ranges over FIVE days:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.43 to 24.07
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 17.87 to 22.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (40.4%): 12.07 to 28.43
Based on DOWN max only (-14.8%): 17.26
Open to requests for other symbols.
AVGO earnings trade
#Earnings Bpought to open $AVGO Mar 15th 260/265/267.5 call #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.70. No upside risk. Allows for a 3% downside move.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 15th (PM) 2755/2775-2835/2855 condors for .75. (IV: 10.37%, SPX 2809)
I will be closing today’s condor for as cheaply as possible into the close, to avoid gap risk on tomorrow morning’s settlement.
ADBE earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings — Sold ADBE Mar 15th 245/250-280/285 condor for 1.12. Allows 5.7% move in either direction. Such a move has only been significantly exceeded twice in the data below.
$ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC +3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +7.11% Biggest UP
June 21, 2016 AC -5.72%
March 17, 2016 AC +3.84%
Avg (+ or -) 3.75%
Bias 0.23%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 265.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 252.53 to 277.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 255.06 to 274.94
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 245.71 to 284.29
Open to requests for other symbols.
ORCL earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings — Bought ORCL Mar15/Mar22 53 #DoubleCalendar for .23 & .24.
$ORCL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 17, 2018 AC +0.26%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -0.30%
June 19, 2018 AC -7.45%
March 19, 2018 AC -9.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 14, 2017 AC -3.76%
Sept. 14, 2017 AC -7.67%
June 21, 2017 AC +8.56% Biggest UP
March 15, 2017 AC +6.22%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -4.30%
Sept. 15, 2016 AC -4.74%
June 16, 2016 AC +2.69%
March 15, 2016 AC +3.82%
Avg (+ or -) 4.93%
Bias -1.34%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 53.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 50.52 to 55.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.39 to 55.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 48.00 to 58.00
Based on Max UP only (+8.6%): 57.54
Open to requests for other symbols.
AVGO earnings analysis
#Earnings — $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC +8.49% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 AC +0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC +4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%
June 2, 2016 AC +4.93%
March 3, 2016 AC +6.35%
Avg (+ or -) 3.93%
Bias 1.72%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 271.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 257.74 to 284.26
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 260.34 to 281.66
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 247.99 to 294.01
Based on Max DOWN only (-4.8%): 257.96
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 14th (monthlys) 2750/2770-2855/2875 condors for 1.00.(IV 13%, SPX: 2816)
Compounding effect on levered ETF’s – TQQQ
I am long $TQQQ 66.67 LEAP calls for Jan 2020. I wanted to look at the effect of compounding on the TQQQ, which moves 3x the $QQQ on a daily basis. Levered ETF’s like this are naturally drawn toward zero, a topic I’ve covered before as #ContangoETFs. This is why some of us sell calls on $DUST and $NUGT and a few others like $BOIL. Even though they can go high pretty fast, they will always be drawn back toward zero.
Here’s a chart from my long-ago webinar demonstrating the effect, using hypothetical 10% moves, up and down, on $GDX, and its levered ETFs NUGT and DUST:
As you can see, over just 4 days of moving up and down, GDX is only down 2% and both ETF’s are down 18%. Note that even though NUGT is bullish and DUST is bearish, they moved down the exact same amount.
So I was thinking of TQQQ over the last several months, since the market has gone up and down significantly. Unlike the gold miners, the indices like QQQ have been steadily rising for years, so can we can expect better behavior? I found that the close on June 6, 2018, was only 17 cents off from yesterday’s close on QQQ, so basically the same, and the perfect point from which to measure.
First, I looked at the intraday high of the year, on Aug 30th.
$QQQ up 6.6% from June 6 (175.86 to 187.52)
$TQQQ up 19.1% from June 6 (61.61 to 73.36) *better
This is not surprising, as the move was straight up, and TQQQ performs x3 the QQQ.
Then I looked at yesterday’s close:
QQQ flat at 175.69 from June 6th
TQQQ down 11.7% from June 6th *worse
So, from June 6 until now, TQQQ has suffered from the 3x compounding, while QQQ ended flat.
Looking at a longer time-frame, from the summer highs of 2015:
QQQ up 49.6%
TQQQ up 129.0% *better
What do we conclude? If an underlying has a persistent bullish trend, as QQQ and all the major indices have had since 2009, the triple levered ETF’s will perform better. However, if we enter a period of consolidation, or a bear trend, they will perform more weakly than the underlying.
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 13th 2825 calls for .90. Condors sold yesterday for .80. Will be placing a new one today with monthlys that stop trading at tomorrow’s close.
DG earnings analysis
#Earnings — $DG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 4, 2018 BO -6.80%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.97%
May 31, 2018 BO -9.36%
March 15, 2018 BO +4.75%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO +2.77%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -5.43%
June 1, 2017 BO +6.54%
March 16, 2017 BO +0.53%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO -4.96%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -17.62%
May 26, 2016 BO +4.61%
March 10, 2016 BO +10.66%
Avg (+ or -) 6.25%
Bias -1.27%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 121.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 114.40 to 127.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 113.44 to 128.56
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 99.68 to 142.32
Based on Max UP only (+10.7%): 133.90
Open to requests for other symbols.
SFIX assignment
#Earnings #Assignment #EarlyAssignment #ShortStock
Assigned over half of my position on $SFIX short 25 calls. Closed short stock position for 31.90. Will sell long calls to cancel out loss, and hopefully cancel out original purchase too if I can get the stock just a bit higher.
SPX surging
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX March 22nd 2825/2850 call spreads for 10.50. Condors sold for 6.00 on Monday. Had no choice but to close in face of renewed upside warning and strong rally. I’m letting the 2720/2700 put side decay some more, and also added a Partial #ReverseRoll:
Sold SPX March 22nd 2780/2755 put spreads for 3.45.
Now in the hole and will have to choose when to sell a new call spread. Also may need to close today’s 1-dte with short at 2825. Hard to believe it could reach that but after Monday’s 40-point rise we can’t be sure.
“Minor” upside warning
#VIXIndicator Usually the Upside Warning is canceled when we get a Downside Warning. But sometimes, like last Monday, the UpW is canceled by an intraday spike on the $VIX, with no DW taking effect. Usually when that happens, the DW comes within the next few days.
But sometimes, the VIX retreats enough to fire a “minor” upside warning… which is measured on the Fib levels from the recent intraday spike. So three closes below the 78.6% line would fire this “minor” signal.
That will happen today provided VIX closes below 14.44.
This has happened only 6 times since 2000. Below is a chart with the performance of SPX in the days after each “mUpW”, ending at the next VIX spike or DW. You can see that it is mostly positive; even the longest one that goes negative spiked pretty high before rolling over.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 13th 2740/2760-2825/2845 condors for .80 (IV: 10.46%, SPX: 2792)
TQQQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $TQQQ March 22nd 52 calls for 1.25 (earlier)
SPX 1-dte slammed
#SPX1dte The is the kind of hit this strategy cannot suffer often. Bought to close $SPX March 11th 2770 calls for 6.10. I was working to close for the last 20 minutes but could not get a pullback. I will make a few cents back sell the long 2790’s, but only .20-.30 cents (first ones just filled for .20).
I’m going to maintain a view of weakness and sell an aggressive call spread to work on the roll.
I set my sights to close after we breached 2760. Wasn’t too concerned until by shorts hit 3.00. Then, the rally would not relent. This was the Monday I was looking for last week, when I was LONG calls. I almost made the same trade on Friday but decided to go short. Then, the rally into the close set me up for this painful Monday.
SFIX earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings — This is another cheap shot with a fairly new stock that’s been volatile. Profit range allows 20% in either direction. If this drifts toward the center during the week it could be a triple or quadruple.
Bought $SFIX Mar15/Mar22 25 #DoubleCalendar for .20, .24, .25.
$SFIX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Dec. 10, 2018 AC -20.90%
Oct. 1, 2018 AC -35.15% Biggest DOWN
June 7, 2018 AC +26.48% Biggest UP
March 12, 2018 AC -3.60%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC -9.77%
Avg (+ or -) 19.18%
Bias -8.59%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 25.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 20.06 to 29.94
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 20.21 to 29.80
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (35.2%): 16.21 to 33.79
Based on Max UP only (+26.5%): 31.62
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX March 11th 2690 short puts for .05. Will work to close 2770 short calls as stop was breached.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 11th 2670/2690-2770/2790 for .90. (IV: 9.6%, SPX 2731)
Econ Calendar for week of 3/11/19
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=11&month=3&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX March 8th 2700/2680 put spreads for .15. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10. I’ll let calls expire.
SPX 1-dte roll
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX March 15th 2800/2820 call spreads for 1.15. Sold yesterday for 3.20 as a roll.
Dub Cals closed
#Earnings Sold to close $COST Mar08/Mar15 217.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.33. Bought yesterday for 1.20. Only a 1-lot… chose not to wait for a pullback when expiration is today and small profit availabe.
Sold to close $SSYS Mar08/Mar15 26.5 dbl cal for .04. Bought for .16 on Wednesday.
$DLTR, looking to close ITM call side for .05 or .00
Dub cals didn’t work this week, but losses only totaled .40 plus commissions.
Options Bistro 