Author Archives: Jeff

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:34 am on Thursday, May 23, 2019
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INTU earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings Bought $INTU May 24/May31 245 #DoubleCalendar for 1.50. Only a partial fill, and then price seems to be running higher. This is not heavy mover normally. Positioned slightly bullish since everything has pulled back today, and it has a bullish bias on earnings..

#Earnings $INTU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 21, 2019 AC +6.76% Biggest UP
Nov. 19, 2018 AC -2.03%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +1.96%
May 22, 2018 AC +2.98%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -0.18%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC -3.79% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -1.90%
May 23, 2017 AC +6.72%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +6.05%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +1.91%
Aug. 23, 2016 AC -3.50%
May 24, 2016 AC -2.13%

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 253.87 to 276.61
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 234.43 to 250.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 226.11 to 258.89
Based on maximum DOWN only (-3.8%): 233.31

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:28 am on Thursday, May 23, 2019
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SPLK earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 AC +2.56%

Avg (+ or -) 7.48%
Bias 3.08%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 131.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 121.63 to 140.37
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 120.28 to 139.72
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 106.74 to 153.26
Based on max DOWN move only (-10.1%): 116.87

Open to requests for other symbols.

#hcgavis

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:23 am on Thursday, May 23, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed on GTC order: $SPX May 31st 2920/2945 call spread for .30. Sold Tuesday for 3.00.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:14 am on Wednesday, May 22, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX May 22nd 2825/2805 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.00. Flirting with a bit too much volatility lately to allow these to expire comfortably.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:39 am on Wednesday, May 22, 2019
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CTRP earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings Out of the three candidates this morning, this one had the best Dub-Cal return and lowest average post-earnings move (other two were $BBY and $NTAP). However, it did have its biggest moves in last two quarters.

Bought $CTRP May 24/May31 38 #DoubleCalendar for .25 and .27. Double size since cost is so low.

#Earnings $CTRP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 4, 2019 AC +19.77% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -19.01% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +5.43%
May 22, 2018 AC +3.98%
March 14, 2018 AC -1.94%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.29%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -2.40%
May 10, 2017 AC -3.52%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +1.44%
Nov. 23, 2016 AC +9.80%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC +3.40%
June 15, 2016 AC +1.50%

Avg (+ or -) 6.21%
Bias 1.35%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 38.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.33 to 41.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.64 to 40.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 30.49 to 45.51

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:09 am on Wednesday, May 22, 2019
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BBY earnings analysis

#Earnings $BBY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 27, 2019 BO +14.11%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO +2.13%
Aug. 28, 2018 BO -5.00%
May 24, 2018 BO -6.64%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.94%
Nov. 16, 2017 BO -3.57%
Aug. 29, 2017 BO -11.92% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 BO +21.47% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 BO -4.50%
Nov. 17, 2016 BO +13.69%
Aug. 23, 2016 BO +19.60%
May 24, 2016 BO -7.42%

Avg (+ or -) 9.50%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 69.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 64.17 to 74.83
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.90 to 76.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.5%): 54.58 to 84.42
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.9%): 61.22

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:35 pm on Tuesday, May 21, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 22nd 2805/2825-2895/2915 condors for .95

Also, sold a wider condor, legging in…
Yesterday, sold May 31st 2725/2700 put spreads for 2.10
Today, sold May 31st 2920/2945 call spreads for 3.00

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:19 am on Tuesday, May 21, 2019
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LOW dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $LOW May24/May31 110 #DoubleCalendar for .50.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:56 am on Tuesday, May 21, 2019
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LOW earnings analysis

#Earnings $LOW reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 27, 2019 BO +2.46%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -5.65%
Aug. 22, 2018 BO +5.79%
May 23, 2018 BO +10.42% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2018 BO -6.47% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -1.06%
Aug. 23, 2017 BO -3.70%
May 24, 2017 BO -3.02%
March 1, 2017 BO +9.51%
Nov. 16, 2016 BO -2.93%
Aug. 17, 2016 BO -5.64%
May 18, 2016 BO +3.32%

Avg (+ or -) 5.00%
Bias 0.25%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 109.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 103.05 to 114.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 103.55 to 114.45
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.4%): 97.64 to 120.36
Based on DOWN Max only (-6.5%): 101.95

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:12 am on Monday, May 20, 2019
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HD earnings analysis — INTERESTING

This is the first time I remember seeing this, but the expected move is LESS than the 12-quarter historical move MAXIMUMS. $HD has moved very little on recent earnings, but current IV projects it to move more than it has since Nov 2015.

#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +1.41%
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -2.56%
Aug. 16, 2016 BO -0.60%
May 17, 2016 BO -2.46%

Avg (+ or -) 1.27%
Bias -0.67%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 192.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 185.43 to 198.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 189.55 to 194.45
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (2.7%): 186.91 to 197.09
Based on UP Max only (+1.6%): 195.13

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:03 am on Monday, May 20, 2019
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SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Tagged my stop level on the opening dip so I’m out with small loss.
BTC $SPX May 20th 2815/2795 put spreads for 1.05. Condors sold for .85 on Friday.

Also, stopped May 31st 2840/2815 put spreads for 8.70. #CondorRoll sold for 6.65 on Thursday.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:54 am on Monday, May 20, 2019
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AZO earnings analysis

#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
May 24, 2016 BO +2.47%

Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias -2.10%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 985.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 925.51 to 1,044.49
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 939.44 to 1,030.56
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 868.38 to 1,101.62
Based on UP Max only (+6.7%): 1,051.39

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:13 pm on Friday, May 17, 2019
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NVDA flushed

#Earnings So the trade headline killed my trade… as usual, legging out is a very bad idea for me. Some accounts now have a loss in this trade, while others will breakeven.

Sold $NVDA long 155 calls for 1.48.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:10 pm on Friday, May 17, 2019  

Another Trade “news” update

“Sources” say trade talks have stalled. Is this really news? How can anyone suddenly be surprised and start selling? Answer: no one can… the computers do it.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:01 pm on Friday, May 17, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 20th 2795/2815-2910/2925 condors for .85. (IV: 10.04%, SPX 2873)

Expiring: May 17th 2810/2830-2910/2930 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:50 am on Friday, May 17, 2019
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NVDA still closing

#Earnings On this minor dip I bought to close all of the short 160 calls for .46. Now I will wait for a drift higher to sell the long 155 calls, and get a few cents for the 162.5 calls as well.

Meanwhile, $DE trade was a miss, but a super cheap one. And I have 160 calls as a lottery ticket for next week.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:47 am on Friday, May 17, 2019  

Econ Calendar for week of 5/20/19

FOMC minutes on Wednesday

Screen Shot 2019-05-17 at 10.45.51 AM
Screen Shot 2019-05-17 at 10.45.51 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=20&month=5&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:11 am on Friday, May 17, 2019
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NVDA closing

#Earnings Closed first few $NVDA 155/160/162.5 call #BrokenWingButterfly lots for 3.00. Bought yesterday for 1.49.

Since we are hovering around the center strike I will wait to try for higher prices on the remainder.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:30 pm on Thursday, May 16, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 17th 2810/2830/2910/2930 condors for 1.30. (IV 13.71%, SPX 2879).

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:19 am on Thursday, May 16, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Stopped out $SPX March 16th 2895/2905 call spreads for 3.05. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.

Another #CondorRoll, same strikes as I sold earlier for May 31st, but this time a week earlier:

Sold $SPX 2815/2840-2960/2985 condors for 4.55.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:59 am on Thursday, May 16, 2019
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SPX smashed

#SPX1dte The biggest up days in history are all during times of market volatility. On a percentage basis, the Fall of 2008 contains five of the top 10 biggest moves UP; a period in which the market was only starting its fall to lose over half its value.

So it is fitting a call spread I could have closed at yesterday’s open for about .45 I now had to stop out for 8.00. Today’s action has provided no pullback opportunities, although I imagine there’ll be one now that I was finally forced out.

BTC $SPX May 17th 2890/2915 call spreads for 8.00. Sold for 2.10 on Monday.

#CondorRoll Sold $SPX May 31st 2815/2840/2960/2985 condors for 6.65

I’m also going to take a loss on today’s monthly condor call side. I cannot risk overnight gap risk on the 2895 short calls.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:45 am on Thursday, May 16, 2019
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DE bullish play

#Earnings I was looking at a #DoubleCalendar, ATM going for about 1.50, but didn’t want the risk as I think a bigger than average move may be possible. Market is crazy bullish at the moment, entirely Trade-War driven. So I looked at an OTM call calendar at 160. The front calls don’t even have a bid, so, I just went with the “buy” half of the Calendar…

Bought to open $DE May 24th 160 calls for .18.

Looking at the daily chart, DE was close to 170 just a couple weeks ago. Unless the report is bad, I believe it has a good shot at a large move tomorrow, or even a further drift upward into next week, when these expire. It is a much better risk/reward play in an uncertain market. Needs any move up to be profitable, and about a 9% move up to be ATM.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:32 am on Thursday, May 16, 2019
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NVDA butterfly

#Earnings Bought to Open $NVDA May 17th 155/160/162.5 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.49. Bullish trade with no upside risk.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:24 am on Thursday, May 16, 2019
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DE earnings analysis

#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +13.49% Biggest UP
May 20, 2016 BO -5.48% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.18%
Bias 3.02%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 146.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 140.45 to 151.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 138.43 to 153.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 126.30 to 165.70
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.5%): 138.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:05 am on Thursday, May 16, 2019
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NVDA earnings analysis

#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC +5.59%
May 12, 2016 AC +15.20%

Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias 4.06%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 159.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 147.20 to 170.80
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 143.68 to 174.32
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 111.62 to 206.38
Based on DOWN Max only (-18.8%): 129.19

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:59 am on Thursday, May 16, 2019
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BIDU earnings analysis

#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45% Biggest UP
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
April 28, 2016 AC +4.45%

Avg (+ or -) 5.13%
Bias -0.10%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 145.46 to 159.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 144.67 to 160.33
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 138.09 to 166.91
Based on DOWN Max only (-8.2%): 140.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:33 am on Wednesday, May 15, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 16th (monthlys) 2775/2795/2895/2915 condors for 1.20. (IV 16.47%, SPX 2856)
These stop trading tomorrow at the close but will settle with Friday morning’s opening.

Expiring, May 15th 2770/2790/2885/2905 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:24 am on Wednesday, May 15, 2019  

Trading by Tweet

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:55 am on Wednesday, May 15, 2019
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NTES earnings analysis

#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%
May 10, 2017 AC -0.82%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +14.08% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2016 AC -9.22%
Aug. 17, 2016 AC -2.67%
May 11, 2016 AC +0.43%

Avg (+ or -) 6.73%
Bias -2.11%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 262.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 245.55 to 279.45
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 244.84 to 280.16
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 225.54 to 299.46
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.0%): 233.73

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:42 am on Tuesday, May 14, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 15th 2770/2790-2885/2905 condors for 1.15 (IV: 15.16%, SPX 2850)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:13 am on Tuesday, May 14, 2019
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M earnings analysis

#Earnings $M reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 26, 2019 BO +1.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 BO -7.18%
Aug. 15, 2018 BO -15.94%
May 16, 2018 BO +10.82%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO +3.46%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +10.98%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -10.24%
May 11, 2017 BO -17.00% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2017 BO -0.03%
Nov. 10, 2016 BO +5.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +17.08% Biggest UP
May 11, 2016 BO -15.16%

Avg (+ or -) 9.58%
Bias -1.35%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 21.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 19.68 to 23.82
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 19.67 to 23.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 18.04 to 25.46

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:12 am on Tuesday, May 14, 2019
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GOOGL out

#Earnings Looks like I picked the wrong week for a #RevengeTrade.

After losing on an earnings condor I sold the $GOOGL ITM May 17th 1220/1120 put spread for 7.75 on May 3rd. I managed to get out for 8.55 by legging out, which I can assure you is not a relaxing endeavor with options that cost 80.00. I will look to take advantage of the next bull run, but not gonna mess with it now.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:41 am on Tuesday, May 14, 2019
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BABA earnings analysis

#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +5.08%
May 5, 2016 BO +3.96%

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias 0.87%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 172.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 163.16 to 181.84
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 166.76 to 178.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 161.58 to 183.42
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.9%): 162.32

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:41 am on Monday, May 13, 2019
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SPX 4-dte

#SPX1-dte As another short term trade, replacing call spreads closed Friday,
Sold $SPX March 17th (weeklys) 2890/2915 call spreads for 2.95.

Also, closed today’s 2790/2770 put spreads for .30. Hovering between 1.00 and 4.00 all day, finally got out. I had to close the call spread at Friday’s close, unfortunately; it would not have been a concern today!

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:42 am on Monday, May 13, 2019
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VXX longs adding

#VXXGame Bought more $VXX Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.40. Adding to first batch I bought for 1.75 on Jan 22nd.

The 2021 puts are still too expensive, but I’m watching.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 1:14 pm on Friday, May 10, 2019
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Stopped already

#SPX1dte After selling the condor, SPX moved up from 2868 to top out at 2891, which was within the expected move for Monday. So I had to stop out of the call side for 1.40.

I may sell a same day condor on Monday if the open in quiet, but otherwise this one’s s small loss.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:01 pm on Friday, May 10, 2019
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TQQQ rolls

#SyntheticCoveredCalls Earlier: BTC $TQQQ May 17th 68.5 calls for .12. Sold for 1.26 on Monday.

Now: Sold TQQQ May 31st 65 calls for 1.25

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:46 am on Friday, May 10, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 13th 2770/2790-2920/2940 condors for 1.15. (IV: 14.08%, SPX 2868)

Also, closed SPX May 17th 2960/2985 call spreads for .40. Sold on Monday for 3.15.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:34 am on Friday, May 10, 2019  

Econ Calendar for week of 5/13/19

Nothing big on the schedule but we’ll still have this trade mess. My prediction: no deal, yet, and will stretch into at least June.

Screen Shot 2019-05-10 at 11.31.55 AM
Screen Shot 2019-05-10 at 11.31.55 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=13&month=5&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:57 am on Friday, May 10, 2019
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YELP closing

#Earnings Sold some 39.5 long puts for 3.75, but now waiting as it looks to want to drop more. #LongStrangle bought yesterday for 4.37.

Filled on next batch for 4.50 and 4.75.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:52 am on Friday, May 10, 2019
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SPX closed

#SPX1dte $SPX May 10th 2760/2780-2920/2940 condors closed for .30. Sold yesterday for 2.05. Super high premium paid off on pretty much the expected news on trade talks: “not yet.”

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:29 pm on Thursday, May 9, 2019
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YELP strangle

#Earnings Bought to open $YELP May 10th 39.5/40 #LongStrangle for 4.37. I need an 11.8% move for breakeven. Avg move on earnings is 15.2%.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:07 pm on Thursday, May 9, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 10th 2760/2780-2920/2940 condors for 2.05. (IV 25.92%, SPX 2864)

A little more aggressive than normal from a delta standpoint, .08 on both sides rather than .06. But in quiet IV times I have gone as high as .10 to get enough premium, and these strikes are decently OTM. Puts 2.9% away and Calls 2.0% away. Yes, it’s possible, and if we get super big news tonight, I may get stopped out tomorrow.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:23 am on Thursday, May 9, 2019
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Z earnings analysis

#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
May 3, 2016 AC +12.05%

Avg (+ or -) 10.22%
Bias -0.77%, small negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 34.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.83 to 38.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 30.53 to 37.47
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 24.85 to 43.14

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:20 am on Thursday, May 9, 2019
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YELP earnings analysis

#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
May 5, 2016 AC +23.71%

Avg (+ or -) 15.17%
Bias 1.63%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 39.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.04 to 44.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 33.59 to 45.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 28.65 to 50.55
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 29.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:15 am on Thursday, May 9, 2019
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WYNN earnings analysis

#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%

Avg (+ or -) 6.00%
Bias -1.61%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 123.53 to 140.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 124.08 to 139.92
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 114.67 to 149.33
Based on UP max only (8.7%): 143.44

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 2:09 pm on Wednesday, May 8, 2019  

STMP’d out

$STMP tanking again… oh, to have been short!

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:48 pm on Wednesday, May 8, 2019
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SPX expires

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX May 8th 2780/2800/2930/2950 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:54 am on Wednesday, May 8, 2019  

WYNN earnings

TOS is confirming tomorrow after the close. These guys are always a guessing game until last minute.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:48 am on Wednesday, May 8, 2019
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TQQQ calls

#SyntheticCoveredCalls #LongLEAPs I’m still at it, selling weekly calls against my Jan 2020 66.67 long calls. I have been underwater and ITM on them for a few weeks, but the pullback allowed me to escape. I mistakenly forgot to close some ITM calls expiring Friday, so Monday’s gap down was super fortunate and allowed me to finally get above water.

Monday: Sold $TQQQ May 17th 68.5 calls for 1.26 (and covered short stock assigned Friday)
Today: Sold TQQQ May 24th 67.5 calls for 1.23

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:09 am on Wednesday, May 8, 2019
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STMP earnings analysis

#Earnings $STMP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 21, 2019 AC -57.76% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 31, 2018 AC -9.74%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.43%
May 3, 2018 AC +3.91%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC +11.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -22.59%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +35.88% Biggest UP
May 3, 2017 AC -0.40%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -1.60%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +6.63%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.22%
May 9, 2016 AC -5.32%

Avg (+ or -) 14.12%
Bias -3.15%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 84.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.94 to 96.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 72.14 to 95.86
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (57.8%): 35.48 to 132.52
Based on UP max only (35.9%): 114.14

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:37 am on Wednesday, May 8, 2019
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ROKU earnings analysis

#Earnings $ROKU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 6 quarters, which accounts for its full history of earnings.

Feb. 21, 2019 AC +25.23%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -22.29% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +21.31%
May 9, 2018 AC -1.71%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -17.71%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +54.93% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 23.86%
Bias 9.96%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 64.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 55.66 to 73.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 49.11 to 79.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (54.9%): 29.07 to 99.93
Based on DOWN max only (-22.3%): 50.12

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:56 am on Wednesday, May 8, 2019
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BUD closed

#Earnings Sold to close $BUD May10/May17 87.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55. Bought for .44 on Monday. It will be worth more if stock price continues to go higher, but not trusting the market to help.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 2:05 pm on Tuesday, May 7, 2019
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Downside Warning

#VIXIndicator A Downside Warning is now in effect… look for continued drop, at least in the short term.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:59 am on Tuesday, May 7, 2019
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SPX extra

#SPX1dte An extra bearish trade since that seems to be the new black:
Sold $SPX May 17th (weeklys) 2960/2985 call spreads for 3.15.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:27 am on Tuesday, May 7, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte — nice to have some volatility again, allowing for wider condor.

Sold $SPX May 8th 2780/2800-2930/2950 condors for 1.05, IV: 20.7%, SPX 2873.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:08 am on Tuesday, May 7, 2019
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EA earnings analysis

#Earnings $EA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 5, 2019 AC -13.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -4.05%
July 26, 2018 AC -5.70%
May 8, 2018 AC +5.74%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.95%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC -4.28%
July 27, 2017 AC +0.55%
May 9, 2017 AC +12.65%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -0.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +1.64%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC +2.40%
May 10, 2016 AC +13.69% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 5.96%
Bias 1.32%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 92.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 84.80 to 100.20
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 86.99 to 98.01
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.7%): 79.84 to 105.16
Based on DOWN max only (-13.3%): 80.20

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:06 am on Monday, May 6, 2019
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SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 6th 2905/2885 put spreads for 1.85. Condors sold for .80 on low-volatility Friday.

Not a good morning to wake up to an ITM spread, but with such a large gap it seemed the move would be faded. Now it looks to have run out of steam, so not taking the chance of a collapse into the close.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:11 am on Monday, May 6, 2019
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BUD earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings $BUD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Bought to Open BUD May10/May17 87.5 #DoubleCalendar for .42 & .44

Feb. 28, 2019 BO +4.60%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -9.37% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO -5.02%
May 9, 2018 BO -0.31%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.07%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
July 27, 2017 BO +6.16% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 BO +5.68%
March 2, 2017 BO -3.72%
Oct. 28, 2016 BO -3.80%
July 29, 2016 BO +2.79%
May 4, 2016 BO -1.53%

Avg (+ or -) 3.92%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.43 to 91.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 84.07 to 90.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 79.30 to 95.70
Based on UP max only (+6.2%): 92.89

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:19 am on Monday, May 6, 2019
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HTZ earnings analysis

#Earnings $HTZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 25, 2019 AC +4.04%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +19.15%
Aug. 6, 2018 AC +24.63% Biggest UP
May 7, 2018 AC -18.72%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC -5.55%
Nov. 10, 2017 BO -2.24%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC +23.03%
May 8, 2017 AC -14.15%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO +13.59%
Nov. 7, 2016 AC -22.49% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2016 AC -4.96%
May 9, 2016 AC +0.22%

Avg (+ or -) 12.73%
Bias 1.38%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 19.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 17.31 to 22.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 17.24 to 22.26
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (24.6%): 14.89 to 24.61
Based on DOWN max only (-22.6%): 15.31

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 6:53 am on Monday, May 6, 2019
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REGN earnings analysis

#Earnings $REGN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO +4.73%

Avg (+ or -) 3.12%
Bias 1.10%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 335.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 315.64 to 354.36
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 325.52 to 346.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (7.0%): 312.51 to 359.49
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 323.97

Open to requests for other symbols.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 5:59 am on Monday, May 6, 2019
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VIX Indicator

#VIXIndicator, needless to say, the minor upside warning was canceled this morning with a $VIX high of 18.80 (we only needed 16.09). Any close at 16.09 or higher will mean a Downside Warning.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 1:03 pm on Friday, May 3, 2019
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Almost escaped

#SPX1dte SPX ended the day right on the line…. my 2945 short calls will likely settle with a debit of 19 to 50 dollars. Condors sold yesterday for .80.

#spx

Unknown's avatar Jeff 12:09 pm on Friday, May 3, 2019
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GOOGL it

#Earnings #Rolling #revengetrade
Sold $GOOGL May 17th 1220/1210 put spreads for 7.75. Replacing my fully ITM spread of the same strikes expiring today.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:20 am on Friday, May 3, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 6th 2885/2905/2970/2985 condors for .80. (IV: 6.77%, SPX 2944)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:16 am on Friday, May 3, 2019  

Econ Calendar for week of 5/6/19

More yapping from Jerome Powell on Wednesday morning.

Screen Shot 2019-05-03 at 11.14.13 AM
Screen Shot 2019-05-03 at 11.14.13 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=6&month=5&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:34 am on Friday, May 3, 2019
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SPX 7-dte

#SPX1dter – tempting fate, Sold $SPX May 10th 2970/2995 call spreads for 3.50.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:09 am on Friday, May 3, 2019  

Never mind

Volatility this week was too minor to disrupt upside warning. Yesterday’s VIX high was 4% shy of canceling the bullish signal, so apparently we are still full steam higher.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:53 am on Friday, May 3, 2019
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Calendars missed

#Earnings Good trades last week followed by a couple misses this week:
Sold to close $MNST 58 #DoubleCalendar for .08. Bought yesterday for .29.
Paid .04 to close $CLX 157.5 put side of #DoubleCalendar. Bought Tuesday for .74

Unknown's avatar Jeff 5:55 am on Friday, May 3, 2019
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April Jobs Report

#Jobs Another great month; lowest UE since 1969

+263,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 190K expected
Unemployment at 3.6%, down by 0.2, a 49-year low
U6 unemployment at 7.3%, unchanged
Wages up 0.2%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 62.8%, down by 0.2

March revised down from 196K to 189K
February revised up from 33K to 56K

Unknown's avatar Jeff 11:48 am on Thursday, May 2, 2019
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 3rd 2850/2870-2945/2965 condors for .80 (IV: 12.84%, SPX 2914)

Unknown's avatar Jeff 10:12 am on Thursday, May 2, 2019
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MNST of a trade

#Earnings Bought to Open $MNST May03/May10 58 #DoubleCalendar for .29.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 9:35 am on Thursday, May 2, 2019
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SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX May 8th 2890/2865 put spread for 5.80. Condor sold for 4.55 on Monday. Been getting whipsawed on these medium-term condors. Small losses but certainly annoying. The 1-day jobbers are easier.

Unknown's avatar Jeff 8:48 am on Thursday, May 2, 2019  

Here comes the drop

Are we really that scared of interest rates?

Unknown's avatar Jeff 7:34 am on Thursday, May 2, 2019
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MNST earnings analysis – trying again

#Earnings $MNST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Tried for a dbl cal last quarter but the big move shut me out. However, it is such a cheap play that I’ll try again.

Feb. 27, 2019 AC +8.66%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -3.16%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +2.65%
May 8, 2018 AC -7.47%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC -14.43% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +1.17%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -1.14%
May 4, 2017 AC +3.30%
March 1, 2017 AC +12.75%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.55%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC +2.47%
April 29, 2016 BO +12.81% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 6.13%
Bias 1.17%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 57.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.57 to 61.43
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 53.98 to 61.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (14.4%): 49.20 to 65.80
Based on UP max only (12.8%): 64.87

Open to requests for other symbols.