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April Jobs Report is this Friday, 8:30am ET.
Author Archives: Jeff
FB roll
#Earnings #CoveredCallCampaign #StrangleRoll #ShortStrangles
Closed $FB Apr 27th 170 call for 2.95. Sold for 1.00 on Wednesday.
Sold FB May 18th 165/180 strangle for 2.92.
SPX sales
#SPXcampaign
Sold $SPX May 25th 2500/2475 put spreads for 1.60
Sold $SPX May 25th 2785/2810 call spreads for 1.50
SQ put
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Closed $SQ Apr 27th 46 put for .05. Sold for 1.20 on 4/16 as a #ReverseRoll from a breached covered call. Now waiting for earnings next Wednesday.
AMZN, scraping for pennies
#Earnings Closed the 25-pt #IronButterfly for 24.70, saving myself 30 bucks from allowing it to be exercised. Working on something for the 30-pointers…. dare I try to leg out on this pullback?
AMZN earnings
#Earnings Trying what has become my usual on this one: #IronButterfly
Looking at 25-pt and 30-pt wide centered on 1525. Gigantically favorable R:R.
SPX condor roll
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX May 11th 2500/2525/2750/2775 condors for 3.10, as a #CondorRoll from put spread stopped yesterday.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX May 4th 2690/2715 call spreads for 6.40. This offsets the $10 put spread sold yesterday with same expiry. Fairly aggressive condor of expiration a week from tomorrow.
FB covered call
#Earnings #CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $FB Apr 27th 170 covered call for 1.00.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX May 25th 2500/2475 put spreads for 2.90. Sold yesterday for 1.70. I’ll look to roll later today. This started the day going over the 3.00 stop level, so got out on the bounce. I also am not going to let my 10-dollar spread go negative. If the bleeding doesn’t stop soon I will be out.
Also, closed on GTC orders:
May 4th 2750/2775 call spreads for .30. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 7.15 on Apr 12th.
May 17th 2810/2835 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Apr 16th.
FB slump
#Earnings Tough to make a call for earnings. It’s breaking more support this morning. It’s biggest recent drop on earnings is only -5.6%, and it has a positive bias after earnings. Even a good earnings report (which is likely) may just be another excuse to sell. I’m probably staying away, although might sell calls if we get a late day rally.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcamaign Making a bet that the low is in… change my mind if we get down to 2600…
Sold $SPX May 4th 2625/2600 put spreads for 10.00.
SPX long again
#SPXcampaign Bought $SPX May 18th 2770/2790 call spreads for .90. Got these a little early in today’s drop, but it is the same position I’ve turned around twice by selling on the highs.
SPX stop and roll
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX May 17th 2535/2510 put spreads for 3.10. Sold Friday for 1.60.
#CondorRoll Increased position size and sold May 18th 2440/2465/2780/2805 condors for 2.20.
The roll leans bullish, with higher premium on the put side, since we are at the bottom of the consolidation range.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX May 25th 2500/2475 put spreads for 1.70.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX May 25th 2795/2820 call spreads for 1.65.
Closed on GTC orders:
Yesterday: May 11th 2825/2850 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.75 on Apr 10th.
Today: May 11th 2400/2375 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.75 on Apr 9th.
TQQQ call sold
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticStock #SyntheticCoveredCall
Sold $TQQQ May 11th 165 call for 1.70. Against my long Jan 2020 150 call.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX May 14th 2675/2650 put spreads for 9.30. Sold Friday for 10.25. Since we did NOT start the week with a nice bounce, I’m exiting this with plans to enter something similar later, perhaps today. Since this is a trade I’ve rolled three times, each time bleeding more, I’m getting out iwht a small profit this time.
Also, in pre-market, closed on GTC order: SPX Apr 27th 2750/2775 call spreads for .30. Sold for 2.35 on April 6th.
Econ Calendar for week of 4/23/18
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SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX May 17th 2775/2800 call spreads for 1.55.
Sold SPX May 14th 2675/2650 put spreads for 10.25. Another aggressive roll but with a more manageable time frame.
Joining the TQQQ Queue
#LongLEAPs Bought to Open $TQQQ Jan 2020 150 call for 41.00. To break even, underlying only has to reach its all-time high from last month, and I got 21 months to do it. Meanwhile, I’ll be selling calls against it.
Volatility not kicking up
#Market Today we are down less than 1%, which in 2018 is notable. VIX not up much, and UVXY and VXX could barely be considered to be spiking, given the huge drop they saw in the last week. UVXY had been at 20 for a couple weeks, then a quick drop to 15, and barely up today.
Meantime, SPX could barely get above 2700. Is this the new normal? Consolidating indices all year and volatility drifts downward as we get used to it?
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX May 4th 2810/2835 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Apr 5th.
Closed Apr 25th 2680/2655 put spreads for 9.70. Sold for 5.65 yesterday. I had to step away for a few, and that’s when the plunge happened, just before I failed to get a fill on a break-even order. Now I may have gotten out on the lows. My ability to trade these short-term near-the-money spreads has totally sucked since early March. I was killing it with them in February and it got my confidence up, so the market had to affirm who’s daddy.
RH trade closed
#Earnings #ShortStrangle #StrangleRoll
Closed $RH Apr 20th 87.5 puts for .60. Sold as the 87.5/100 #StrangleRoll from breached short calls for 4.535 on Mar 29th. Letting the calls expire. Total profit in trade, 2.11.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Looks like early March all over again… a multi-day rally cut short by the volatility of 2018.
Sold $SPX May 17th 2535/2510 put spreads for 1.60.
Looking to already close the short-term put spread I sold at yesterday’s close. I thought the bounce yesterday looked decent and would lead to a stronger morning. Not the case. AAPL is not helping the overall market.
SPX roll
#SPXcampaign #Rolling Sold $SPX Apr 25th 2680/2655 put spreads for 5.65 after the bell, as a roll from the spread stopped earlier.
BABA roll
#CoveredCallCampaign #ShortPuts
Closed $BABA Apr 20th 190 put for 7.95, to avoid early assignment tonight. Sold for 3.85 on March 15th.
#Rolling Sold BABA May 4th 187.5 put for 9.55. Moved down a strike and after earnings.
FDX trades
#Earnings #Rolling
Closed $FDX Apr 20th 255 call for .74. Sold for 1.15 on March 23rd.
Sold FDX May 25th 237.5 puts for 2.33.
After closing ITM puts under margin pressure, I have now rolled them all back into profit range. I still think this is a decent bullish candidate on pullbacks. The call was over 3.00 yesterday so slipping out today in case it rallies back tomorrow.
CP earnings closed
#Earnings BTC $CP Apr 20th 175 puts for .45. Sold yesterday for 1.10.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign I love these short-term reverse rolls when a rally starts, but of course they only work with a sustained rally… since January, sustained rallies haven’t been happening. Thus, got whipsawed on this one, albeit without much damage. Stopped out when we started dropping for the third time, and of course, that led to the strongest bounce. Will likely roll into a condor later, depending on how the day shakes out.
Closed $SPX April 20th 2690/2665 put spreads for 5.35. Sold for 4.35 as a #ReverseRoll on Tuesday.
CP earnings
#Earnings The only thing I’m doing today is selling $CP Apr 20th 175 puts for 1.15. Fairly close to the money, but CP has only moved down more than 3% one time on earnings in the last 8 years.
Not filled yet, but stock is pulling back now. I’ll drop to 1.10 if necessary.
Biggest UP move: 5.9%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.2%, Average move: 2.9%. This trade is -2.8% OTM.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX May 4th 2760/2785 call spreads for 4.25. Sold for 1.70 on Apr 3rd.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign
In pre-market, closed on GTC order: $SPX May 4th 2400/2375 put spread for .20. Sold for 1.60 on Apr 6th.
After open, sold SPX May 17th 2540/2515 put spreads for 1.60
Keeping up with the DROP
#VXXGame VXX products plummeting. Only a few positions in trouble, more than outweighed by my short calls that are deteriorating.
BTC $UVXY Apr 27 19 put for 3.95. Sold for 1.56 on Apr 3rd.
BTC $VXX Apr 27 44.5 put for 3.60. Sold for 1.25 on Apr 3rd.
BTC UVXY Jan 2019 70 call for 1.20. Sold for 6.50 (avg price) in February. Still have several remaining.
Sold UVXY Sept 25 call for 2.27
Sold VXX Sept 50 call for 5.65
Bought VXX June 15th 30 puts for .18, adding to my position.
NFLX closed
#Earnings Closed $NFLX Apr 20th 275 puts for .10. Sold yesterday for 3.433 (avg price).
Effective Upside warning possible
#VIXIndicator As I discussed last month, we are in a “double-header” downside warning which is rare. Rarer still is when the second warning does not print a higher VIX high or a lower SPX low. This makes it less clear when we get an Upside Warning. If we measure from the first warning’s spike, we will get the Upside with a close below 17.76 today (which is likely). If we go with the second warning, we have to wait for three closes below 12.61.
I suspect by the time we drop to 12.61, a sustained rally will already be underway. Because of last month’s head-fake, with three closes below 17.76 leading us right into more volatility, I remain cautiously optimistic for new market highs.
Covered calls
#CoveredCallCampaign #CoveredCalls.
On Friday, closed $SQ Apr 27th 50 call for 1.77. Strike was breached, so I closed, and then stock dropped a lot more. Today, I sold Apr 27th 46 put for 1.20. Getting this roll in before earnings on May 2nd.
Today, closed $FB Apr 27th 175 call for 1.55. Sold for 1.60 on 3/29… I believe I sold this when earnings were expected to be around May 1. Now they are confirmed for Apr 25th, and I don’t want to be in its way.
VXX dump
#VXXGame Hard to keep ahead of short puts once the drop commences…
BTC $UVXY Apr 27 19 put for 3.45. Sold for 1.56 on Apr 3rd.
BTC $VXX Apr 27 44 put for 2.48. Sold for 1.15 on Apr 3rd.
Closed partial positions. Will close the remainder later, probably roll into short calls, which is the side that always works.
Also, earlier, closed UVXY March 18th 25 call for .54. Sold for 3.175 in March.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX May 17th 2810/2835 call spreads for 1.50.
NFLX puts sold
#Earnings. Sold to open $NFLX April 20th 275 puts for 3.65. May add more, and possibly calls if I can find some premium high up.
NFLX kicks it off
#Earnings season begins! Here are the 5-day moves on NFLX. Strong bullish bias. Pulling back now gives good entry opportunity.
Mon 01/22/2018 AC 20.66%
Mon 10/16/2017 AC -4.20%
Mon 07/17/2017 AC 16.59%
Mon 04/17/2017 AC -2.97%
Wed 01/18/2017 AC 3.09%
Mon 10/17/2016 AC 27.75%
Mon 07/18/2016 AC -13.07%
Mon 04/18/2016 AC -11.53%
Tue 01/19/2016 AC -6.64%
Wed 10/14/2015 AC -7.74%
Wed 07/15/2015 AC 12.65%
Wed 04/15/2015 AC 19.33%
SPX calls closed
Good morning!
#SPXcampaign. Closed on GTC order: $SPX Apr 27th 2800/2825 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on March 28th.
Volatility drop continues. I’m cautiously shifting to a bullish stance, but still need to break through SPX resistance.
Econ Calendar for week of 4/16/18
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No SPX for you
Flying at 30,000 feet and I can’t load SPX options into the IB platform. Need to sell a call spread, dammit. Guess I could do 60 SPY spreads instead.
SPX condor sold
#SPXcampaign What do you do when you’re bored? A 3-week, 20-delta condor will work. Last one of these I did worked great, so we’ll try again. VIX finally got down to my 17.76 level, but SPX does not yet look like it wants to rally.
Sold $SPX May 4th 2550/2575/2750/2775 #CondorRoll for 7.15.
Also, just filled,
Sold May 11th 2500/2475 put spreads for 1.85.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Apr 20th 2700/2725 call spreads for 7.05. Sold on Tuesday for 7.50.
For the first time in awhile the VIX is showing actual weakness in the last hour. Need to see what tomorrow brings.
UVXY trades
#VXXGame Took some $UVXY profits and also added some more hedges.
BTC Apr 20th 25 call for .20. Sold for 1.47 on Apr 2nd.
BTC May 18th 25 call for 1.04. Sold for 3.175 (avg price) in March. Leaving one open.
BTC June 15th 40 call for .66. Sold for 2.75 on Feb 2nd.
BTO May 18th 44 calls for .20. Highest strike. My April 59 long calls rolling off next Friday so shifting to May and June.
Testing… testing…
Turn around?
I’m being cautious with short positions… yesterday was pretty weak in SPX but VIX didn’t budge much and in fact had a lower high, low, and close. And today we are opening strong with VIX further down. Earnings season is starting, and the general bullishness about 1st quarter results may be what breaks us free of this volatility.
VXX gamin’
#VXXGame
BTC $UVXY April 20th 26 calls for .25. Sold for 1.45 on April 2nd.
BTO $UVXY May 18th 40 call for .30. Adding to my position, which is cheap long calls to hedge the sale of higher-premium, lower-strike calls.
Trades this week
#ContangoETFs #CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign #VXXGame #Earnings
Here are a few trades other than SPX:
Today: BTC $DUST Jun 15th 40 call for .25. Sold for 3.05 on Dec 4th.
Yesterday: BTC $FB Apr 20th 160 put for 3.00. Sold for 1.37 on March 19th. Backed out to early, not anticipating the rally the Zuck’s testimony would create.
Friday: BTC $FDX Apr 20th 235 puts for 6.77. Sold for 6.75 on 3/23 as when #Rolling from an earnings trade. I had margin pressure on Friday. Scaling back in since then:
Sold May 4th 235 put for 6.05;
Sold May 4th 237.5 put for 5.55.
This one seems like a buy… it’s just waiting for market to relax.
Friday: Closed $BABA Apr 27th 200 call for .18. Sold for 1.90 on 3/29.
Today: Sold BABA May 11th 195 call for 1.40
Tuesday: Sold $SQ Apr 27th 50 covered call for 1.01
Friday: Sold $UVXY Jan 2020 59 call for 4.80.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX May 11th 2825/2850 call spreads for 1.75.
SPX long spreads rotated
#SPXcampaign Sold to close half of $SPX May 18th 2770/2790 call spreads for 4.25. Bought on Friday for 1.75. Holding the other half for possible end to this correction.
Bought to Open SPX Apr 27th 2450/2425 put spreads for 1.10.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Apr 20th 2700/2725 call spreads for 7.50.
SPX creeping up again… VIX going nowhere.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Apr 20th 2625/2600 put spreads for 6.50. Sold for 10.25 on Friday.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX April 13th 2500/2475 put spreads for .45. Sold last Monday for 3.10.
After being whipsawed about six too many times, I’ve made two significant adjustments to survive this volatile period. I plan to stick with this until VIX is below 17.76.
Last week as we cruised higher, I got stopped on 3 call spreads and did nothing. If I’d sat on them, they would have all been winners. If I’d rolled them higher, they also would have been winners. So…
1. If I get stopped out, I need to roll FORWARD, and not reverse roll and don’t sit on my hands.
2. But before stopping out, consider just sitting on the troubled spreads. This is what I did Friday, as I sold a few put spreads early in the day, only to see them get under heavy pressure into the close. I felt certain, since we bounced off 2585 again, and because market keeps whipsawing, that we’d be up today. Wasn’t the most relaxing weekend, but I got the bounce.
So while I’ve closed one put spread today, I’m not selling calls. I’ll look for higher levels tomorrow and then start selling some calls, then wait for the next deep dive before selling puts.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX May 11th 2400/2375 put spreads for 1.75. I’m expecting an up day… hopefully a decent rally but it may be muted. If VIX or put/call ratio start acting up, my theory may change.
Econ Calendar for week of 4/9/18
Be sure to periodically click Home/REFRESH to keep Bistro features updated.
Blue asterisk refers to “market moving indicator.”
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Apr 20th 2750/2775 call spreads for .45. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 7.05 yesterday (call side sold for 3.23). The put side is taking heat.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign
Sold $SPX Apr 27th 2750/2775 call spreads for 2.35
Sold May 4th 2400/2375 put spreads for 1.60
Sold Apr 20th 2600/2625 put spreads for 10.25. This last one is betting on a bounce for Monday. But if that doesn’t happen I have two weeks to expiration so the flexibility to roll it ITM.
March Jobs Report
#Jobs Reverse of last month: Added jobs LOWER than expected, but wage growth was stronger. Reversion to the mean?
+103,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs 178K expected
Unemployment holds steady at 4.1%
U6 unemployment at 8.0%, down by .2
Wages up 0.3%, reflecting 2.7% annualized
Labor force participation 62.9%, down 0.1
Jan revised down from 239k to 176k
Feb revised up from 313k to 326k
Sold long SPX calls
#SPXcampaign I didn’t get filled at the highs so I’m selling half this order since we could be going lower. More likely to happen is a bounce, as my timing on these intraday swings has been horrendous for the last few weeks.
Sold to close $SPX May 18th 2770/2790 call spreads for 3.75. Bought for 1.50 on Monday. Keeping the other half into expiration, but now the cost of the full position has been covered.. Thanks @mortlightman for the trade idea.
Also, sold to open May 4th 2810/2835 call spreads for 1.45.
NUGT call closed
#ContangoETFs $NUGT and $DUST have been kind of dull in recent weeks, so I’m just watching theta do its work on short calls in both.
Closed on GTC order: NUGT June 15th 47 call for .20. Sold for 2.46 on Dec 26th.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Still getting pressed on some call spreads so rolling. I’m not selling put spreads at these levels… I expect another dip, perhaps not as low as Monday; but I’m waiting for a pullback or VIX below 18.00 before I’ll start getting bullish. Jobs report is tomorrow and no matter what the results, it may be an excuse to sell. I also will be selling half of my double-sized LONG call spread today at or near a triple.
Stopped: $SPX Apr 13th 2670/2695 call spreads for 11.50. Sold for 3.75 on Tuesday. No roll yet.
#CondorRoll: from calls stopped yesterday. (these are the only puts I’m adding)
Sold Apr 20th 2540/2565/2750/2775 condors of 7.05.
Closed Apr 13th 2720/2745 call spreads for 4.80. Sold for 3.65 on 3/28. No roll yet.
Again, JOBS report tomorrow could be a trigger for panic selling, or panic buying.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign I do not see clear skies ahead, but I still gotta keep call spreads from becoming ITM. I legged out of this one, something I rarely do. But when this market moves up or down so clearly into the last hour, there’s little chance of a reversal.
Closed $SPX Apr 6th 2650/2675 call spreads for 6.60. Sold for 3.65 on Monday.
Will look to roll on the next extreme, whether it be a high or low extreme.
VXX this morning
Could more pain help?
I thought this was an interesting view on the current #Market
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Spent the morning doing mostly the reverse of yesterday… putting on call spreads and taking off put spreads.
Closed $SPX Apr 6th 2475/2450 put spreads for 1.30. Sold yesterday for 2.20.
Sold Apr 6th 2650/2675 call spreads for 3.65
Bought to Open Apr 13th 2450/2425 LONG put spreads for 2.30.
Sold May 4th 2760/2785 call spreads for 1.70.
Stopped Apr 27th 2460/2435 put spreads for 3.80. Sold Thursday for 1.75.
#ReverseRoll Sold Apr 13th 2670/2695 call spreads for 3.75.
VXX part 2
Sold $UVXY Apr 20th 26 calls for 1.45
Closed UVXY May 18th 20 call for 4.00. Sold for 2.50 on March 19th. This is my only position ITM. Closed one today and will close the other, and roll them to Sept higher strike.
Bought $VXX May 18th 30 puts for .05. I already had a couple of these; looking like a loss but why not add a handful more to make it a lottery ticket?
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX April 13th 2745/2770 call spreads for .50. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 6.30 on 3/26… the call side was sold for 2.95.
On the bright side…
Market Seasonality: April has closed green for the $SPX in 11 of the last 12 yrs w/ avg $SPX return coming in at 2.3%. Worth noting that Energy in April closed green in 7 of the last 10 yrs for an avg return of 3.71%.
— Stephanie Link (@Stephanie_Link) April 2, 2018
Another Downside Warning possible?
#VIXIndicator We exceeded 25% above Thursday’s close which is an additional signal. Secondary signals/warnings like this can sometimes signal a bottom, but it’s impossible to be sure. For those keeping track on this double-header correction:
1/16: First signal of trouble ahead/cancel Upside Warning
1/26: SPX high
1/29: Downside WARNING
1/30: 2nd warning
2/2: 3rd warning
2/5: six warnings in one day (a record)
2/9: SPX low
2/23: downside warning canceled
2/28: New downside WARNING
3/22: 2nd and 3rd warnings
Today: SPX lowest since 2/9
VXX gamin’
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Apr 20th 25 call for 1.47.
BTC $UVXY Apr 20th 14 puts for .11. Sold for 1.05 on Mar 20th.
BTC $VXX Apr 13th 38.5 puts for .04. Sold for 1.10 on Mar 20th.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Apr 6th 2475/2450 put spreads for 2.20. This is the spread I took profits on this morning, closing for .55. Now I’m using same strikes again for a new trade.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign
BTC $SPX Apr 19th 2820/2845 call spreads for .25. Sold for 1.95 on Mar 21st.
BTC $SPX Apr 19th 2825/2850 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.65 on Mar 19th.
