#Earnings #JadeLizards – Playing this one with max downside protection again and no upside risk. Breakeven just outside the expected move and at the 200ma…
Sold AVGO JUN 14 2019 265/280/285 Jade Lizard @ 5.10
Tag Archives: Earnings
LULU RH Earnings
#Earnings – No harm no foul and made a little…
Bought to Close LULU JUN 14 2019 152.5/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.14 (sold for 3.10)
Bought to Close RH JUN 14 2019 80.0/100.0/103.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.01 (sold for 3.15)
Looking at a similar play on AVGO now…
LULU Jade Lizard
#earnings
$LULU BTC 170/172.5 BUCS at 2.20 STO at 1.15. Will let the put expire and net on trade .85. Thank you @fuzzballl.
And very happy for you and the Blues.
AVGO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 AC +8.23% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC +8.49%
March 1, 2017 AC +0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC +4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%
June 2, 2016 AC +4.93%
Avg (+ or -) 4.09%
Bias 1.88%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 282.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 265.11 to 299.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 270.94 to 294.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 258.52 to 306.48
Based on DOWN Max only (-4.8%): 268.91
Open to requests for other symbols.
LULU
RH Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Never had much luck with this one but IV is high enough to give it a shot…
Sold RH JUN 14 2019 80.0/100.0/103.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.15
LULU Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – My usual. Playing max downside protection with no upside risk. Would get the stock at a basis right at the 200ma.
Sold LULU JUN 14 2019 152.5/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.10
RH earnings analysis
#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 28, 2019 AC -21.96%
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75% Biggest UP
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69% Biggest DOWN
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
June 8, 2016 AC -21.23%
Avg (+ or -) 18.96%
Bias 2.28%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 93.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 78.98 to 108.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 75.77 to 111.23
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 51.66 to 135.34
Based on DOWN Max only (-25.7%): 69.48
Open to requests for other symbols.
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO +4.90%
Avg (+ or -) 12.10%
Bias 4.21%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 171.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 154.13 to 187.87
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 150.32 to 191.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 130.93 to 211.07
Based on UP Max only (+16.3%): 198.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
Eaely Closings BABA EHTH
#earnings
$BABA BTC 6/21 200/145 strangle at .60 STO at 1.80. Thank you @thomberg1201
#bucs
$EHTH STC 6/21 60/70 BUCS at 8.50 BTO at 4.50 on 5/24
Expiring
#OptionsExpiration #Earnings #IronCondor
$FIVE 117/120-138/141 condors, sold Wednesday for 1.31
Have a good weekend all!
FIVE SFIX Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards #IronFlies – No interest in messing with these beyond today…
Was looking a little weak so booked it:
Bought to Close FIVE JUN 7 2019 117.0/126.0/129.0 Jade Lizard @1.67 (sold for 3.10)
Pulled back just enough to get out at even:
Bought to Close SFIX JUN 7 2019 21.5/24/24/26.5 Iron Flies @ 2.05 (sold for 2.10)
SFIX Earnings
#Earnings – Lotsa premium in this one. Selling an iron fly just inside the expected move…
Sold SFIX JUN 7 2019 21.5/24/24/26.5 Iron Flies @ 2.10
Risk 40 to make 210
FIVE condor
#Earnings Selling this with a bullish lean based on its history… -3.2% on downside, +11.3% on upside
Sold $FIVE June 7th 117/120-138/141 #IronCondor for 1.31.
FIVE Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Going for extra downside protection again so selling the call side at the money. As usual no upside risk and playing for a move down to the 200ma.
Sold FIVE JUN 7 2019 117.0/126.0/129.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.10
UBER roll
#Earnings #StrangleRoll #ThatDidntTakeLong
Sold this strangle Friday as a roll from losing #LongStraddle. Already breached, so rolling. Fortunately, the ATM options are not much more than the strangle sold for.
BTC $UBER June 14th 37/43 #ShortStrangle for 1.40. Sold for 1.00 on Friday.
STO $UBER June 21st 40/46 #ShortStrangle for 1.05
SFIX earnings analysis
#Earnings $SFIX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 6 quarters, its entire history on the exchange.
March 11, 2019 AC +25.20%
Dec. 10, 2018 AC -20.90%
Oct. 1, 2018 AC -35.15% Biggest DOWN
June 7, 2018 AC +26.48% Biggest UP
March 12, 2018 AC -3.60%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC -9.77%
Avg (+ or -) 20.18%
Bias -2.96%, slightly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 23.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 19.80 to 27.20
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.76 to 28.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (35.2%): 15.24 to 31.76
Based on UP Max only (+26.5%): 29.72
Open to requests for other symbols.
FIVE earnings analysis
#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 27, 2019 AC +8.15%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
June 2, 2016 AC +2.07%
Avg (+ or -) 6.54%
Bias 5.25%, Strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 124.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 113.86 to 134.14
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 115.89 to 132.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 96.89 to 151.11
Based on DOWN Max only (-3.4%): 119.72
Open to requests for other symbols.
CRM Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Taking what I can get. Could hold until Friday and hope for a pullback but gonna go ahead and close it.
Bought to Close CRM JUN 7 2019 142.0/150.0/152.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.05 (sold for 2.90)
CRM Earnings
#JadeLizard #Earnings – Selling the lizard with the put side at the expected move and the call side nearly at the money with the stock up 4 dollars today. Playing for a slight down move with no upside risk.
Sold CRM JUN 7 2019 142.0/150.0/152.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.90
AMBA earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMBA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 5, 2019 AC +3.74%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +18.48% Biggest UP
Aug. 30, 2018 AC -3.62%
June 5, 2018 AC -12.93%
March 1, 2018 AC +13.46%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +14.29%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC -22.35% Biggest DOWN
June 6, 2017 AC -10.24%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -4.42%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -11.27%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -6.67%
June 2, 2016 AC +9.39%
Avg (+ or -) 10.91%
Bias -1.01%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 40.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 36.00 to 44.00
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.64 to 44.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.4%): 31.06 to 48.94
Based on UP Max only (+18.5%): 47.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
CRM earnings analysis
#Earnings $CRM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN
May 18, 2016 AC +4.13%
Avg (+ or -) 2.91%
Bias 1.36%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 145.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.15 to 153.85
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 141.76 to 150.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 131.01 to 160.99
Based on DOWN Max only (-4.4%): 139.56
Open to requests for other symbols.
TIF earnings analysis
#Earnings $TIF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 22, 2019 BO +3.14%
Nov. 28, 2018 BO -11.82% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 BO +0.99%
May 23, 2018 BO +23.28% Biggest UP
March 16, 2018 BO -5.06%
Nov. 29, 2017 BO -1.58%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO -1.31%
May 24, 2017 BO -8.70%
March 17, 2017 BO +2.71%
Nov. 29, 2016 BO +3.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +6.40%
May 25, 2016 BO +0.06%
Avg (+ or -) 5.68%
Bias 0.94%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 90.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.84 to 96.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 84.89 to 95.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.3%): 69.05 to 110.95
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.8%): 79.36
Open to requests for other symbols.
UBER bad
#Earnings So much for my speculative play of a #LongStraddle. Seem like the stock really likes 40. Nonetheless it did bounce around today but was unable to sell at the best times because other commitments had me running around the house and town too much.
Sold $UBER 40 straddle for .45. Bought yesterday for 3.15
#Rolling: Sold $UBER Jun 14th 37/43 #ShortStrangle for 1.00. See if I can work that three times and get back the losses.
That loss erases my decent win on $ANF straddle, leaving me flat for the week.
Also, Sold to close $DG call calendar for .10. Bought #DoubleCalendar for .39 on Wednesday. Long 118 put as lottery ticket for next week.
ULTA Earnings
#Earnings – The Modified #JadeLizard (unbalanced skewed iron condor?) worked out pretty good. A little down move but held support.
Bought to Close ULTA MAY 31 2019 280/305/340/345 @ .20 (sold for 5.12)
UBER straddle
#Earnings This is speculative because $UBER has not previously posted earnings, but my guess is this stock will move more than $3.00 (7.5%) on earnings. $LYFT moved over 10% on its first report.
So I’m buying a #LongStraddle. I’m going to try to leg in, which is often a mistake for me, but trying any way.
Just now bought $UBER May 31st 40 call for 1.45.
Order in to buy 40 put for 1.50, banking that stock will rise a bit from here. If not, I’ll buy the 39.5 put instead.
ULTA earnings analysis
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 AC +8.28%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.12% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC +7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13%
May 25, 2017 AC +3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC +4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -6.11%
May 26, 2016 AC +9.10% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.16%
Bias 0.37%, tiny positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 325.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 300.92 to 349.08
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 304.98 to 345.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 282.36 to 367.64
Based on UP Max only (+9.1%): 354.58
Open to requests for other symbols.
COST earnings analysis
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC +3.40%
May 25, 2016 AC +3.57%
Avg (+ or -) 3.79%
Bias -0.52%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 232.65 to 252.35
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 233.31 to 251.69
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.6%): 221.69 to 263.31
Based on UP Max only (+5.1%): 254.82
Open to requests for other symbols.
UBER earnings
#Earnings $UBER reports its first earnings tomorrow after the bell. Expected move +/- 2.82 by Friday.
DG dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $DG May31/Jun07 118 #DoubleCalendar for .38 & .39.
DG earnings analysis
#Earnings $DG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 BO -7.49%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO -6.80%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.97%
May 31, 2018 BO -9.36%
March 15, 2018 BO +4.75%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO +2.77%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -5.43%
June 1, 2017 BO +6.54% Biggest UP
March 16, 2017 BO +0.53%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO -4.96%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -17.62% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO +4.61%
Avg (+ or -) 5.99%
Bias -2.79%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 119.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 112.81 to 125.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 111.88 to 126.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 98.03 to 139.97
Based on UP Max only (+6.5%): 126.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
DLTR earnings analysis
#Earnings $DLTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 6, 2019 BO +5.11%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +6.13%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -15.54% Biggest DOWN
May 31, 2018 BO -14.28%
March 7, 2018 BO -14.47%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO +2.41%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +5.62%
May 25, 2017 BO +0.92%
March 1, 2017 BO +0.20%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +8.15%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -9.93%
May 26, 2016 BO +12.77% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.96%
Bias -1.08%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 96.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 89.87 to 103.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 88.82 to 104.18
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.5%): 81.50 to 111.50
Based on UP Max only (+12.8%): 108.82
Open to requests for other symbols.
PANW earnings analysis
#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Aug. 30, 2016 AC -7.16%
May 26, 2016 AC -12.36%
Avg (+ or -) 8.79%
Bias -1.07%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 212.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 194.69 to 230.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 193.81 to 231.19
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 161.18 to 263.82
Based on UP Max only (+17.2%): 249.05
Open to requests for other symbols.
ANF closing
#Earnings Sold to close first batch of $ANF May 31st 25 puts for 5.25. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 3.23.
ANF straddle
#Earnings Bought to open $ANF May 31st 25 #LongStraddle for 3.23. Needs a 12.9% move. Avg has been 16.1%
CPRI earnings analysis
#Earnings $CPRI (formerly $KORS) reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. Feb 2019 is from symbol CPRI, and the remainder are under symbol KORS.
Feb. 6, 2019 BO +11.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 BO -14.62% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 BO +6.72%
May 30, 2018 BO -11.44%
Feb. 7, 2018 BO +1.02%
Nov. 6, 2017 BO +14.69%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO +21.54% Biggest UP
May 31, 2017 BO -8.51%
Feb. 7, 2017 BO -10.80%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC -3.97%
Aug. 10, 2016 BO -2.79%
June 1, 2016 BO +6.62%
Avg (+ or -) 9.50%
Bias 0.81%, slightly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 39.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.65 to 43.35
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.29 to 42.71
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.5%): 30.60 to 47.40
Based on DOWN Max only (-14.6%): 33.30
Open to requests for other symbols.
ANF earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO -15.66%
Avg (+ or -) 16.06%
Bias 3.46%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 25.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 21.96 to 28.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 21.20 to 29.30
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.9%): 19.22 to 31.28
Based on DOWN Max only (-20.3%): 20.12
Open to requests for other symbols.
INTU closed
#Earnings Sold to close $INTU 245 #DoubleCalendar for 1.35, small loss. Opened yesterday for 1.525.
There was a chance to close with a profit this morning, but I thought the morning weakness would drag it down. But it keeps going higher, so I’m bailing. Often a tough call closing these trades..
ADSK SPLK Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Could possibly squeeze a little more out of these but not worth waiting. Both cooperated nicely. As I’m typing this SPLK is approaching 121 so good to be out early.
Bought to Close ADSK MAY 24 2019 152.5/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ .35 (sold for 2.60)
Bought to Close SPLK MAY 24 2019 121/132/135 Jade Lizard @ .85 (sold for 2.95)
CTRP closed
#Earnings Closed second half of $CTRP May24/May31 38 calendar for .75. Opened for .26 on Wednesday, closed for .58, avg price. A small double, but a double nonetheless.
SPLK Earnings
#JadeLizard #Earnings – Almost identical to ADSK. This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. A nickel of upside risk…
Sold SPLK MAY 24 2019 121/132/135 Jade Lizard @ 2.95
Dub Cal updates
#Earnings Paid .02 to close the 110 put calendar on $LOW. It’s too low. Bought for .50 on Tuesday.
Sold to close half of the $CTRP May24/May31 38 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Bought yesterday for .26. Looking to close the rest when price drifts a bit higher, today or tomorrow.
Filled on more of the $INTU dub cal at 1.55. Still only partial fill, but I’m not going to go any higher.
I want to play $SPLK bullish but the market isn’t cooperating with my confidence.
ADSK Earnings
#JadeLizard #Earnings – Copy and paste from last earnings with slightly different strikes. Playing for a down move to no more than the 200ma.
#JadeLizard – This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. No upside risk…
Sold ADSK MAY 24 2019 152.5/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.60
INTU earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings Bought $INTU May 24/May31 245 #DoubleCalendar for 1.50. Only a partial fill, and then price seems to be running higher. This is not heavy mover normally. Positioned slightly bullish since everything has pulled back today, and it has a bullish bias on earnings..
#Earnings $INTU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +6.76% Biggest UP
Nov. 19, 2018 AC -2.03%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +1.96%
May 22, 2018 AC +2.98%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -0.18%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC -3.79% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -1.90%
May 23, 2017 AC +6.72%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +6.05%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +1.91%
Aug. 23, 2016 AC -3.50%
May 24, 2016 AC -2.13%
Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 253.87 to 276.61
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 234.43 to 250.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 226.11 to 258.89
Based on maximum DOWN only (-3.8%): 233.31
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPLK earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 AC +2.56%
Avg (+ or -) 7.48%
Bias 3.08%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 131.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 121.63 to 140.37
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 120.28 to 139.72
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 106.74 to 153.26
Based on max DOWN move only (-10.1%): 116.87
Open to requests for other symbols.
CTRP earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings Out of the three candidates this morning, this one had the best Dub-Cal return and lowest average post-earnings move (other two were $BBY and $NTAP). However, it did have its biggest moves in last two quarters.
Bought $CTRP May 24/May31 38 #DoubleCalendar for .25 and .27. Double size since cost is so low.
#Earnings $CTRP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 4, 2019 AC +19.77% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -19.01% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +5.43%
May 22, 2018 AC +3.98%
March 14, 2018 AC -1.94%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.29%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -2.40%
May 10, 2017 AC -3.52%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +1.44%
Nov. 23, 2016 AC +9.80%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC +3.40%
June 15, 2016 AC +1.50%
Avg (+ or -) 6.21%
Bias 1.35%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 38.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.33 to 41.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.64 to 40.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 30.49 to 45.51
Open to requests for other symbols.
BBY earnings analysis
#Earnings $BBY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 27, 2019 BO +14.11%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO +2.13%
Aug. 28, 2018 BO -5.00%
May 24, 2018 BO -6.64%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.94%
Nov. 16, 2017 BO -3.57%
Aug. 29, 2017 BO -11.92% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 BO +21.47% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 BO -4.50%
Nov. 17, 2016 BO +13.69%
Aug. 23, 2016 BO +19.60%
May 24, 2016 BO -7.42%
Avg (+ or -) 9.50%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 69.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 64.17 to 74.83
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.90 to 76.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.5%): 54.58 to 84.42
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.9%): 61.22
Open to requests for other symbols.
LOW dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $LOW May24/May31 110 #DoubleCalendar for .50.
LOW earnings analysis
#Earnings $LOW reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 27, 2019 BO +2.46%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -5.65%
Aug. 22, 2018 BO +5.79%
May 23, 2018 BO +10.42% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2018 BO -6.47% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -1.06%
Aug. 23, 2017 BO -3.70%
May 24, 2017 BO -3.02%
March 1, 2017 BO +9.51%
Nov. 16, 2016 BO -2.93%
Aug. 17, 2016 BO -5.64%
May 18, 2016 BO +3.32%
Avg (+ or -) 5.00%
Bias 0.25%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 109.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 103.05 to 114.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 103.55 to 114.45
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.4%): 97.64 to 120.36
Based on DOWN Max only (-6.5%): 101.95
Open to requests for other symbols.
HD earnings analysis — INTERESTING
This is the first time I remember seeing this, but the expected move is LESS than the 12-quarter historical move MAXIMUMS. $HD has moved very little on recent earnings, but current IV projects it to move more than it has since Nov 2015.
#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +1.41%
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -2.56%
Aug. 16, 2016 BO -0.60%
May 17, 2016 BO -2.46%
Avg (+ or -) 1.27%
Bias -0.67%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 192.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 185.43 to 198.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 189.55 to 194.45
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (2.7%): 186.91 to 197.09
Based on UP Max only (+1.6%): 195.13
Open to requests for other symbols.
AZO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
May 24, 2016 BO +2.47%
Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias -2.10%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 985.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 925.51 to 1,044.49
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 939.44 to 1,030.56
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 868.38 to 1,101.62
Based on UP Max only (+6.7%): 1,051.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
NVDA flushed
#Earnings So the trade headline killed my trade… as usual, legging out is a very bad idea for me. Some accounts now have a loss in this trade, while others will breakeven.
Sold $NVDA long 155 calls for 1.48.
NVDA still closing
#Earnings On this minor dip I bought to close all of the short 160 calls for .46. Now I will wait for a drift higher to sell the long 155 calls, and get a few cents for the 162.5 calls as well.
Meanwhile, $DE trade was a miss, but a super cheap one. And I have 160 calls as a lottery ticket for next week.
NVDA closing
#Earnings Closed first few $NVDA 155/160/162.5 call #BrokenWingButterfly lots for 3.00. Bought yesterday for 1.49.
Since we are hovering around the center strike I will wait to try for higher prices on the remainder.
NVDA Earnings
#Earnings – Bought to Close NVDA MAY 17 2019 150.0 Put @ .06 (sold for 2.20)
DE bullish play
#Earnings I was looking at a #DoubleCalendar, ATM going for about 1.50, but didn’t want the risk as I think a bigger than average move may be possible. Market is crazy bullish at the moment, entirely Trade-War driven. So I looked at an OTM call calendar at 160. The front calls don’t even have a bid, so, I just went with the “buy” half of the Calendar…
Bought to open $DE May 24th 160 calls for .18.
Looking at the daily chart, DE was close to 170 just a couple weeks ago. Unless the report is bad, I believe it has a good shot at a large move tomorrow, or even a further drift upward into next week, when these expire. It is a much better risk/reward play in an uncertain market. Needs any move up to be profitable, and about a 9% move up to be ATM.
NVDA butterfly
#Earnings Bought to Open $NVDA May 17th 155/160/162.5 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.49. Bullish trade with no upside risk.
DE earnings analysis
#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +13.49% Biggest UP
May 20, 2016 BO -5.48% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.18%
Bias 3.02%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 146.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 140.45 to 151.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 138.43 to 153.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 126.30 to 165.70
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.5%): 138.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC +5.59%
May 12, 2016 AC +15.20%
Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias 4.06%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 159.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 147.20 to 170.80
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 143.68 to 174.32
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 111.62 to 206.38
Based on DOWN Max only (-18.8%): 129.19
Open to requests for other symbols.
BIDU earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45% Biggest UP
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
April 28, 2016 AC +4.45%
Avg (+ or -) 5.13%
Bias -0.10%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 145.46 to 159.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 144.67 to 160.33
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 138.09 to 166.91
Based on DOWN Max only (-8.2%): 140.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
NVDA Earnings
#Earnings – One for tomorrow and one for a little further out. Good earnings season so far so these are a little aggressive slightly inside the expected moves…
Sold 1 NVDA MAY 17 2019 150.0 Put @ 2.20
Sold 1 NVDA JUN 07 2019 145.0 Put @ 3.05
NTES Earnings
#Earnings – Bought to Close NTES MAY 17 2019 247.5 Put @ .10 (sold for 2.50)
NTES Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Taking another shot at this one. Selling below the 50 and 100 moving averages and right at the April 1st breakout level.
Sold NTES MAY 17 2019 247.5 Put @ 2.50
NTES earnings analysis
#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%
May 10, 2017 AC -0.82%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +14.08% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2016 AC -9.22%
Aug. 17, 2016 AC -2.67%
May 11, 2016 AC +0.43%
Avg (+ or -) 6.73%
Bias -2.11%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 262.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 245.55 to 279.45
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 244.84 to 280.16
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 225.54 to 299.46
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.0%): 233.73
Open to requests for other symbols.
BABA TLRY Earnings
#Earnings – Just can’t find anything I like. Hoping for some weakness to set up for NTES, NVDA and BIDU later this week. Off to work…have great night!
M earnings analysis
#Earnings $M reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +1.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 BO -7.18%
Aug. 15, 2018 BO -15.94%
May 16, 2018 BO +10.82%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO +3.46%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +10.98%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -10.24%
May 11, 2017 BO -17.00% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2017 BO -0.03%
Nov. 10, 2016 BO +5.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +17.08% Biggest UP
May 11, 2016 BO -15.16%
Avg (+ or -) 9.58%
Bias -1.35%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 21.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 19.68 to 23.82
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 19.67 to 23.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 18.04 to 25.46
Open to requests for other symbols.
NTES
This was supposed to be an #Earnings trade but not worth the risk now. Taking the 24 hour profit and maybe pick a new strike later for the announcement.
Bought to Close NTES MAY 17 2019 230.0 Put @ .90 (sold for 3.00)
GOOGL out
#Earnings Looks like I picked the wrong week for a #RevengeTrade.
After losing on an earnings condor I sold the $GOOGL ITM May 17th 1220/1120 put spread for 7.75 on May 3rd. I managed to get out for 8.55 by legging out, which I can assure you is not a relaxing endeavor with options that cost 80.00. I will look to take advantage of the next bull run, but not gonna mess with it now.
BABA earnings analysis
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +5.08%
May 5, 2016 BO +3.96%
Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias 0.87%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 172.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 163.16 to 181.84
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 166.76 to 178.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 161.58 to 183.42
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.9%): 162.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
NTES Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Earnings not until Wednesday but selling a little early with the big down day today…
Sold 1 NTES MAY 17 2019 230.0 Put @ 3.00
YELP closing
#Earnings Sold some 39.5 long puts for 3.75, but now waiting as it looks to want to drop more. #LongStrangle bought yesterday for 4.37.
Filled on next batch for 4.50 and 4.75.
YELP strangle
#Earnings Bought to open $YELP May 10th 39.5/40 #LongStrangle for 4.37. I need an 11.8% move for breakeven. Avg move on earnings is 15.2%.
Z earnings analysis
#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
May 3, 2016 AC +12.05%
Avg (+ or -) 10.22%
Bias -0.77%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.83 to 38.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 30.53 to 37.47
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 24.85 to 43.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
YELP earnings analysis
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
May 5, 2016 AC +23.71%
Avg (+ or -) 15.17%
Bias 1.63%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 39.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.04 to 44.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 33.59 to 45.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 28.65 to 50.55
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 29.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
WYNN earnings analysis
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Avg (+ or -) 6.00%
Bias -1.61%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 123.53 to 140.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 124.08 to 139.92
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 114.67 to 149.33
Based on UP max only (8.7%): 143.44
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 