#VIXIndicator. Once again, the dip was quickly bought and a new Upside Warning went into effect on Friday. The VIX also notched an all-time low; if the CBOE does not correct it as a glitch. The VIX was wavering around 9.60 on Friday at the closing bell, and then briefly dipped down to tag 8.56, which is it’s lowest reading ever. It quickly jumped back to close at 9.67. So it may have been a bad tick, but if not corrected it is the new record low.
An Upside Warning is a reliable signal of a rally higher. Since Jan 1, 2000 (HOD=high of day)
31 upside warnings
25 times the HOD on 5th day was above the close of the Warning day
21 times the HOD on the 10th day was above the close of the Warning day
21 times the HOD was over 1% higher on any day within the first 10 days after the Warning
18 times the HOD was over 2% higher on any day within the first 20 days after the Warning
Looking at the highs of the day from all 31 occurrences, here are the expected moves UP from the close on Friday (2602.42).
Mon, Nov 27 0.44% 2,613.87
Tue, Nov 28 0.46% 2,614.42
Wed, Nov 29 0.48% 2,614.85
Thu, Nov 30 0.46% 2,614.29
Fri, Dec 1 0.59% 2,617.71
Sat, Dec 2 0.56% 2,616.98
Sun, Dec 3 0.77% 2,622.40
Mon, Dec 4 0.92% 2,626.44
Tue, Dec 5 0.89% 2,625.65
Wed, Dec 6 1.02% 2,628.99
These are averages, so the actual move will tend to be sharper or more gradual.