Fuzzy, need a hand..


Fuzzy, I need your help on what and how you do with options on futures…


Happy Veterans Day

Wishing all Veterans a Happy Veterans Day..If you served, Thanks for putting yourself on the line..


I asked a question a…

I asked a question a few days ago and got two answers, so thanks for those. However, I think I didn’t word my question well or else I don’t understand the answers so I’m going to re-ask my question.

I’d like to know why PITM and Delta are essentially the same for a given strike on SPY but very different on VXX. Here’s an example from today’s TOS trade tab.

June 2018 ATM Puts
SPY: PITM = 54, Delta = 50
VXX: PITM = 62, Delta = 37

Theoretically, ATM strikes should be about 50 for both PITM and Delta, and they are for SPY. What is it about VXX and the calculations behind PITM and Delta that throws both PITM and Delta so far apart and away from 50?


Original question and answers:

I have a question about VXX and delta.

During this wild bull market, I’ve been buying SPX calls and VXX puts. I buy the calls at about a 60 delta with a 200ish DTE. On the TOS and TastyWorks platforms, the PITM percentage is similar to delta. I use PITM because several years ago Sosnof made the case PITM is a better estimate for the probability of expiring in-the-money than is delta.

So this brings me to VXX. Delta and PITM are not even close to the same. At 200ish DTE, they are about 25 points apart.

My question is why are PITM and delta so different for VXX, and which is a better estimate of the probability of expiring in-the-money? I ask because it clearly affects strike selection and potentially affects when to roll or close.

from vxxkelly: Steve, The difference with $VXX is likely explained by the skew. Take a quick look at the June 18 options. ATM the puts and calls are trading almost equal, but go up $10 on the calls and down $10 on the puts. Massive difference in the pricing, the calls are going for more than 2X the puts.

1) $VXX is a decaying asset vs any given stock or index that isn’t, the market knows this
2) If there were a volatility spike, there is significant risk to the short calls, so people who are selling them want a premium for the risk they are taking.

From hcgdavis: And that is where you find the “edge” in trading vol. products!


SPX Campaign / Short Puts / Short Calls / Expired / Closed Early

$SPX STO 11/20 2545/2565 BUPS @ 3.10
$SPX STO 12/8 2485/2510 BUPS @ 2.65 Thank you @jeffcp66 IC
$SPX STO 12/8 2675/2650 BECS @ .55
$SPX STO 11/24 2505/2525 BUPS @ 1.25

$NVDA STO 12/15 170/185 BUPS @ 2.35
$ADBE STO 12/15 167.50/177.50 BUPS @ 1.45 Thank you @thomberg1201
$AMZN STO 11/17 1085/1095 BUPS @ 1.25
$OSTK STO 12/15 30/40 BUPS @ 1.82 (Bridget at OMM)

$BABA STO 12/15 195/190 BECS @ 1.50

Expired Full Profit
$SPX 11/8 2515/2540 Thank you birthday guru

Closed Early
$CAT BTC 11/17 145/140 BECS @ 58% profit

SPX trades

#SPXcampaign $SPX

Closed Nov 22nd 2550/2525 put spreads for 2.70. Sold for 2.80 this morning. This was a mistake that I sold it, so I took it off once we bounced back. Covered commissions.

Closed Nov 17th 2550/2575 call spreads for 20.30. Sold last Friday for 19.00. Will roll tomorrow.

Sold Nov 22nd 2595/2600 call spreads for 6.65. A roll from the 2585/2610 spread closed earlier today for 5.95.

DIS earnings

#Earnings – Just for fun planning on hardly any movement. This is obviously separate from my #SyntheticStock position…

Sold DIS 102/103/104 iron flies @ .90 risking .10 to make .90 with a 3.15 expected move.

$UVXY #CoveredCalls #Rollup – I…

$UVXY #CoveredCalls #Rollup – I probably could have done better because I was early but now that $UVXY has pulled back it looks like I did OK.
Bought to close UVXY Nov 10 2017 18.0 Calls/ Sold UVXY Nov 17 2017 18.5 Calls @ 0.50 Credit with the stock at 16.20 (on the way up).
Bought to close UVXY Nov 10 2017 18.5 Calls/ Sold UVXY Nov 17 2017 19.0 Calls @ 0.50 Credit with the stock at 16.26.
I gave up the rest of this week’s potential gains to make even more next week.