#VIXIndicator Checking in on the progress of this upside warning, referencing my post from the weekend:

https://optionsbistro.com/2017/11/25/upside-warning-in-effect-2/

The predicted HOD’s, based on the average of all highs from past Upside Warnings, measuring from the close on the warnings day (which in the current case was Friday, 11/24):

Mon, Nov 27 Predicted: 0.44% 2,613.87 Actual: +0.15% 2,606.41
Tue, Nov 28 Predicted: 0.46% 2,614.42 Actual: +0.73% 2621.31 (thus far)

So we fell short yesterday, but have gone over today. Of the 4 occurrences this happened before (mild rally first day of Warning, strong rally on second), the averages are:
Day 1 +0.78%
Day 2 +1.43%
Day 3 +1.76%
Day 4 +2.15%
…and then levels off for a few days. Not enough data to make conclusions there, but fun to look at anyway.