Today we achieved 3-of-5 bars in SPX with a greater than 1-standard deviation up move. As a reminder, at the end of last year I began looking for patterns on standard deviation pricing for crash probability. I found a rolling score of 6-8 1SD up moves in a rolling month began to prescribe danger (manic buying). After our Feb crash I went back to 1987 looking again for a pattern that historically would lead us out of post-crash chop into a fresh trend. I found that 3-in-5 consecutive bars with a 1SD up move was the right pattern for which to watch. It’s taken a long time to get here, now it’s time to prove it out.
I have a mix of 1×2 put spreads, fuzzies, and naked puts sprinkled around to take advantage of, what I hope is, a fresh bull trend.
Sue
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