#VIXindicator I began to doubt it would show its stuff on day one, but the Downside Warning came through today, and a second warning fired at the close.
Daily Archives: Thursday, August 1, 2019
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 2870/2890-3010/3030 condors for .95, IV: 18.99%, SPX 2958.
DRIP adding to Dec
Sold $DRIP 12/20 130 call @ 13.00. New highest strike.
VXX puts
Bought $VXX 8/16 26/22 bear put spread @ 1.91. Will look to take this off for near 3.00, hopefully soon if volatility retreats.
SPY
#ShortPuts – First sale in what I’m hoping will be a long term position. Been holding well over half my cash to start easing into this one. First sale down near the 200ma. VTI is probably a slightly better return but I prefer the liquidity. Now just need a chance to add a few more times.
Sold SPY SEP 20 2019 280.0 Put @ 2.96
7.8% annulaized if held to expiration…
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Sold UVXY SEP 20 2019 45.0/55.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .83
SPX
STO August 2, 2800/2840 put spread at .60 cents.
STX
#Earnings #ShortPuts – Earnings tomorrow but I’m going out to Sep for safety. Divvy yield of 6.42% at a basis of 39.20. Trade itself makes 14.9% annualized if held to expiration.
Sold STX SEP 20 2019 40.0 Puts @ .80
#xop
bto aug 9/25 call @ .08
looking to btc for .75
when /cl move back to $58.00 ish
SQ Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – With the little pullback and spike in volatility taking a shot at tomorrow.
Sold SQ AUG 2 2019 76.0/83.0/84.0 Jade Lizards @ 1.31
DRIP
#ContangoETFs – Oil imploding but DRIP still below yesterday’s high. That’s how it’s supposed to work!
New VIX highs
And SPX just notched below yesterday’s low.
If only I’d waited…
BREAKING: Stocks slide from highs of the day as Trump tweets that while China talks continue, U.S. will put 10% tariff on remaining $300B of goods starting Sept. 1 https://t.co/jn8limUSe7 pic.twitter.com/OAMfdBxJwB
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) August 1, 2019
#earnings #jadelizard SQ
Sold Aug. 16, 75/83/83.50 jade lizard for 1.22, a little risky.
SPX call spread closed
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Closed $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 6.75. Sold earlier for 5.50. Action is not bearish so I’m getting out with only a 1.25 loss rather than waiting for it to get worse. I will wait for bearish action to become obvious or to see if signal is nullified.
#tastytradefollow #shortputs HAL
Sold Sept. 20, 22.50 put for 1.53.
A TRADE:
YETI BTO STOCK 33.17. To cover 33.5 calls expiring tomorrow.
Sold ANET
#Earnings Sold $ANET Aug 2nd 255/265-290/292.5 broken-wing condor for 3.80. #BrokenWingCondor
ANET earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANET reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC -10.43%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +9.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +6.97%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC +3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC +18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.49%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.33%
Avg (+ or -) 9.53%
Bias 2.27%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 278.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 253.96 to 302.04
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 251.52 to 304.48
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 223.98 to 332.02
Based on DOWN max only (-19.0%): 225.24
Open to requests for other symbols.
OLED earnings analysis
#Earnings $OLED reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC +8.76%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +23.03%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -20.50% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 9, 2018 AC +13.54%
May 3, 2018 AC +12.43%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -15.81%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +9.52%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -1.30%
May 4, 2017 AC +23.87% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +20.08%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +2.98%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -8.01%
Avg (+ or -) 13.32%
Bias 5.72%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 217.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 193.58 to 240.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 188.10 to 245.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.0%): 165.20 to 268.80
Based on DOWN max only (-20.5%): 172.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
TRADES:
GOOS BTO STOCK @47.45 Not holding over earnings next week.
YETI STO 8/2/19 33.5 CALLS @.50 Expires tomorrow. May add more if price holds.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Abiding by the downside warning that there will be a pullback, and waited to hit 3,000 to sell, as it could work as resistance again.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 5.50. I’ll be watching this closely, in case the signal is a false alarm.
SQ earnings analysis
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC -7.98%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +8.42%
Avg (+ or -) 6.27%
Bias 2.66%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 82.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.22 to 87.78
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 76.86 to 87.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.0%): 70.50 to 93.50
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 74.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
UBER closed
#Earnings #Rolling #ShortStrangles
BTC $UBER Aug 2nd 41 put for .05. Leaving the call to expire.
41/47 strangles sold for .85 on July 12th. This was my fourth strangle and has me breaking even from busted earnings long straddle. UBER is definitely NOT a mover. I’ll wait for earnings and then consider whether to keep the strangles as an ongoing strategy.
Closing SHOP
#Earnings Bought to close $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condors for 1.90. Sold yesterday for 4.50.
I left the long 275 put in place, since it has no bid and thus may have prevented a fill. Fill price is .60 better than if I had allowed call side to expire ITM.
Options Bistro 