#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 16th 2750/2770-2900/2920 condors for 1.15, IV 20.82%, SPX 2846
Daily Archives: Thursday, August 15, 2019
BA put spread
Sold $BA 9/20 310/300 bull put spread @ 2.15
#earnings #rolling ANET pain August…
#earnings DE Sold Sept. 20,…
#earnings DE
Sold Sept. 20, 120/165 strangle for 1.65, thanks for the data Jeff.
DE earnings analysis
#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 17, 2019 BO -7.65% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +13.49% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 5.36%
Bias 2.84%, Strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 142.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.54 to 149.46
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 134.86 to 150.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 123.28 to 161.72
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 131.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
XBI
#ShortPuts – Adding to an existing position. A couple strikes lower for similar premium.
Sold XBI SEP 20 2019 78.0 Put @ 2.00
EWW TNA
#CoveredCalls – Assigned early on some EWW and selling against TNA again.
Sold EWW SEP 13 2019 39.5 Calls @ .46
Bought to Close TNA AUG 16 2019 54.0 Call @ .06 (sold for 2.05)
Sold TNA AUG 30 2019 51.5 Call @ 2.18
Rolling just about everything. As…
Rolling just about everything. As I mentioned will not list all my ongoing trades, just list new ones going forward or ones that were listed before I had to drop out.
Tried a directional trade on /ES at the open, lost $700 when my stop was hit.
XBI 82.5 put rolled down to 80 for 9/6 for 0.26 credit. Cb 79.74 if assigned
EOG 85/83.5 #fuzzy rolled out to 9/13 for 0.45 credit. Cb 17.89
LABU 41 puts rolled down to 38 and 9/13 for 0.5, 0.45, 0.55 credits. cb ranges from 37.45-37.55
GILD 65/65 #fuzzy (some of these were on before March injury) rolled for 0.51 credit. Cost basis now 0.53, 3.20, 6.72, and 2.52. A few will be 100% returns and free trades in just a few more rolls.
TQQQ 62.5 rolled down to 60 for 9/13 for 0.67 credit. Cb 59.33
Hope everyone is doing well. I suspect there will be some more rolls before my trades break even or make money.
SPX 6-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 2900/2925 call spreads for 5.00. This offsets 2725/2700 put side sold yesterday. Call side is more aggressive as I believe we are headed lower over coming days. A fourth Downside Warning fired at yesterday’s close, and I don’t think it was the bottom.
#earnings #closing BABA Bought Sept….
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC +5.59%
Avg (+ or -) 8.56%
Bias 2.60%, Positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 139.23 to 160.77
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.16 to 162.84
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 105.30 to 194.70
Based on DOWN max only (-18.8%): 121.88
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPY
~$100k bet that the market will be up 10% by October?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/someones-betting-big-p-500-193135605.html
(wasn’t me…)
Options Bistro 